It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect’s online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.

Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Event: The World in 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024

How to think about tariffs
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffs

Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Data: China Activity Proxy
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy

Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating