Neil Shearing says the UK’s April CPI report was a “horrorshow”. The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist tells David Wilder why sticky inflation readings make recession more likely – despite the popular view that a downturn can be avoided – while previewing May inflation data for the euro-zone and the US non-farm payrolls report.

Plus, the reports suggest a deal is near, but what if Democrats and Republicans fail to agree in time and the US actually defaults? Hear an exclusive clip from our client briefing about the macro and market impact if the unthinkable became a reality.

Also, most studies tend to understate the impact that a bigger-than-expected rise in global temperatures would have on economic activity. David Oxley, the head of our Climate Economics service, has tried to put that right with new analysis. Here he talks through some of the global and country-level impacts.

Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.