It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? 

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded.

Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region’s economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Explore: Global economic fracturing
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economy

Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challenges

EM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities