{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"The Construction & Capital Podcast","title":"The £650 Cliff: London's Single Most Important Number in 2026","html":"","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":489,"description":"If you took just one number out of London property in 2026, it would be £650 per square foot. That is the line Molior identifies as the binary divide between viable and undeliverable for residential schemes across Greater London. Below it the maths does not work. Above it schemes are being built.\nThe most striking implication: of the 281,000 unbuilt consented homes across the 33 London boroughs, only 119,200 sit above the threshold. The other 162,000 are effectively undeliverable on current economics — more than half of London's planned housing stock sitting on consents that will not translate into deliveries.\nLenders are not negotiating the line. They are using it as a yes-or-no filter on the GDV input row of every appraisal that comes through the door. This is the eight-minute deep dive on how it became a hard filter, where the line falls borough by borough, and the three forces that could move it through 2026.\n\nChapters\n\n0:05  — The single most important number in London property0:55  — How the threshold became a hard filter1:55  — The three pressures that pushed the marginal scheme below the line2:50  — Where the line falls borough by borough4:20  — What the threshold means for capital structures5:50  — The three forces that could move £650 through 2026 and 20277:10  — What this means for site acquisition decisions7:55  — Resources and sign-off\n\nKey numbers\n\n·       £650/sqft — the binary line between viable and undeliverable·       281,000 — total unbuilt London consents across 33 boroughs·       119,200 — consented homes above the line·       162,000 — consented homes below the line·       22% — UK build cost increase since Q1 2022·       3.75% — Bank of England base rate (December 2025 cut)·       −3.3% — Greater London YoY house price index (Feb 2026)·       −10.8% to −11.2% — prime central falls (Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea)·       1.9% — new-build share of total Greater London transaction activity·       £30–£80/sqft — value of policy uplift on...","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/PQIxhztrqofmSDjIB-12nDbin4WpyUiJYUAC2xknWJo/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS85YmE0/MGM4OGU1YWI2Zjlm/NzIyYjFlNjk0ZjAw/YjM4My5wbmc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}