{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"Beyond Markets","title":"The Week in Markets - Relentless move higher in treasury yield","html":"","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":875,"description":"At 4.33%, the 10 year treasury yield is just 3 basis points below a new high since 2006. If the yield is the same 15 weeks from now, the treasury’s full-year return will be negative for 2023, for a third year in a row, something that has never happened before.The oil price is up 35% since May, but hasn’t been accompanied by other commodity prices. We find when oil uptrends are not confirmed by the broader complex, they are not sustainable. 80% of Saudi’s production cuts are being offset by increases in other countries. Add to that a peak in oil demand in 2024 as the world transitions to electric vehicles, and we look for oil at $75 a year from now.The S&P’s long-run seasonal average shows the best time to be in the market is the end of the year, and this year the S&P has had a remarkably close fit with the average so far this year. The consensus looks for a 0.2% y/y increase in Q3 earnings, but excluding energy, they could be up 5%. We think the current stock market consolidation will be over by mid-October at the latest, and then there should be a rally into year-end.","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/11BnEfZU7rka4GVHoUpqhWArVzb8RoTTrwhLaXT0-wM/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS9zaG93/LzE5NzI2LzE2MTY1/NzYyNDItYXJ0d29y/ay5qcGc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}