{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"80,000 Hours Podcast","title":"#90 – Ajeya Cotra on worldview diversification and how big the future could be","html":"","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":10745,"description":"You wake up in a mysterious box, and hear the booming voice of God: \n\n“I just flipped a coin. If it came up heads, I made ten boxes, labeled 1 through 10 — each of which has a human in it. \n\nIf it came up tails, I made ten billion boxes, labeled 1 through 10 billion — also with one human in each box. \n\nTo get into heaven, you have to answer this correctly: Which way did the coin land?” \n\nYou think briefly, and decide you should bet your eternal soul on tails. The fact that you woke up at all seems like pretty good evidence that you’re in the big world — if the coin landed tails, way more people should be having an experience just like yours. \n\nBut then you get up, walk outside, and look at the number on your box. \n\n‘3’. Huh. Now you don’t know what to believe. \n\nIf God made 10 billion boxes, surely it's much more likely that you would have seen a number like 7,346,678,928? \n\nIn today's interview, Ajeya Cotra — a senior research analyst at Open Philanthropy — explains why this thought experiment from the niche of philosophy known as 'anthropic reasoning' could be relevant for figuring out where we should direct our charitable giving. \n\nLinks to learn more, summary and full transcript. \n\nSome thinkers both inside and outside Open Philanthropy believe that philanthropic giving should be guided by 'longtermism' — the idea that we can do the most good if we focus primarily on the impact our actions will have on the long-term future. \n\nAjeya thinks that for that notion to make sense, there needs to be a good chance we can settle other planets and solar systems and build a society that's both very large relative to what's possible on Earth and, by virtue of being so spread out, able to protect itself from extinction for a very long time. \n\nBut imagine that humanity has two possible futures ahead of it: Either we’re going to have a huge future like that, in which trillions of people ultimately exist, or we’re going to wipe ourselves out quite soon, thereby ensuring...","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/VO1STE7hN95RRg9QdLo4soV2VhhbR9PF5ZZlRhDYcwE/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS9zaG93/LzQxNDAyLzE2ODM1/NDQ1NDAtYXJ0d29y/ay5qcGc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}