{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"The AI Supercycle","title":"The Nervous System of the AI Supercycle","html":"","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":2056,"description":"Episode 7:  The Nervous System of the AI Supercycle \n\nCapital Formation and the Race to Fund an $805 Billion Build-Out\nFor six episodes, this show has tracked the physical stack of the AI supercycle. The chips. The power. The materials. Most recently, the photonics connecting it all, and the possibility of taking infrastructure into orbit. But before any of that gets built, somebody has to raise the money.\nIn this episode, we turn to capital formation: not a new layer in the stack, but the nervous system running through every layer already covered. Hyperscaler capex is now guided toward roughly $805 billion in 2026, climbing toward $1.1 trillion in 2027, and the way that spending gets financed has shifted fast, from internally funded cash flow to a credit market that is starting to ask harder questions.\nWe trace that shift through three stages, place it against the closest historical parallel (the year-2000 telecoms fibre boom), and unpack the parts of this build-out that don't show up cleanly on any balance sheet: special purpose vehicles, private credit exposure, and this week's live example of circular financing involving Nvidia, SK Group and OpenAI.\nFinally, we present the QF-MI base case, and what a more selective, more expensive capital market could mean for the pace of the AI build-out over the next 12 to 18 months.\nIn This Episode\nWhy capital formation sits above the physical stack as the constraint that funds all the others\nThe scale of hyperscaler capex, and what Alphabet's latest earnings reveal about the pace of spending\nComparing today's build-out to the year-2000 telecoms fibre boom\nThe three stages of AI financing: internal cash, external credit, and capital crowding\nWhat a falling bond coverage ratio actually signals, and why it moves before spreads do\nThe rise of off-balance-sheet financing through special purpose vehicles\nWho is really holding the risk: Blackstone, Blue Owl, Apollo and Pimco's growing exposure\nCircular financing explained, and...","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/EGB2CNeTYtgbCY9EmoM0RaP0QpKAA8nMGPTJc4-3t_4/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS8zYzBi/MjViMjg0NDU1N2Ux/OTYzOTVkYjkxZjRm/MGExOC5wbmc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}