{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"Manifold","title":"Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55","html":"<iframe width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https://share.transistor.fm/e/5ba51f66\"></iframe>","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":3019,"description":"Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. \nSteve and Stephen discuss:\n0:00 Introduction\n0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background\n5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets\n11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement\n20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration\n23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement\n27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions\n30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets\n31:47 Dating markets\n32:53 The Art of PR\n38:32 Global reach and community engagement\n39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions\n43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff\nManifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/\nMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.\n--\nSteve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. \nPlease send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/3dN5jXpdPU-2tksLGunno-_3QSF26xY_bpkov6O7drs/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS9zaG93/LzI3Njg3LzE2NDI3/MjI3MjUtYXJ0d29y/ay5qcGc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}