{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"Energy Markets Daily","title":"2026 Year-in-Review and Q4 2026 Outlook","html":"<iframe width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https://share.transistor.fm/e/688ea4f7\"></iframe>","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":296,"description":"2026 YEAR-IN-REVIEW AND Q4 2026 OUTLOOK. CRUDE OIL: WTI 2026 YTD average $84.01/bbl (range $55.99-$112.95), up 68% from Jan start (~$57 to ~$96 Sep). Q1 ~$72.13, Q2 ~$95.76, Q3 ~$86.94. vs 2025 avg $64.94 (up $29/bbl, +45%). Brent 2026 YTD $93.81/bbl (range $61-$138), up 84% from Jan (~$62 to ~$114 Sep). Q1 ~$66.60, Q2 ~$117.30, Q3 ~$92.40. vs 2025 avg $69.14 (up $24.87, +36%). Recent Oct: WTI ~$91.85, Brent ~$125.44. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub 2026 YTD average $3.48/MMBtu. Monthly range Jan $4.144, Feb $3.148, Mar $3.036, Apr $2.683, May $2.938, Jun $3.206, Jul $2.963, Aug $2.766, Sep $2.954. Q1 ~$3.45, Q2 ~$2.94, Q3 ~$2.90. vs 2025 avg ~$3.52 (relatively flat YoY). Recent Oct ~$3.03. CRUDE PRODUCTION: US 2026 proj 13.9M bbl/d (2025 actual 13.7). Global 2026 proj 101.1M bbl/d (2025 actual 106.3, major decline Strait disruptions). OPEC 2026 proj 23.9M, non-OPEC 77.2M. Nov 2026 quotas unchanged (Saudi 10.478M, Russia 9.949M, Iraq 4.431M, Kuwait 2.676M, Kazakhstan 1.628M, Algeria 1.007M, Oman 0.841M). Q4 assumes ~4.5M bbl/d shut-ins, Brent $105 avg. STRAIT OF HORMUZ 2026 CRISIS: Pre-crisis baseline ~17-21M bbl/d crude/refined products. Current ~80-85% (late Sep), dropping 40-80% (early Oct). AIS transits ~1-10% normal (~85/day pre-crisis, now single-digit). Cumulative loss 2B barrels first 7 months. Peak disruption 14% global combined oil/gas supply. Largest modern disruption (2x 1970s shocks, 6x Russia-Ukraine). Tanker attacks surge Sep/Oct (9-12+ incidents/week). War-risk ~30x pre-crisis. Buffers (Saudi/UAE bypass pipelines 3.5-5.5M bpl usable, inventory/demand compression) containing gap. NATURAL GAS 2026: US consumption proj 92.37 Bcf/d. Production proj 112.20 Bcf/d. LNG exports ~17.6-18 Bcf/d. Storage Oct 30-forecast ~3,850 Bcf (2% above 5-yr avg), build ~328 Bcf Oct. INVENTORY: US crude commercial (ex-SPR) late Sep 427.3M bbl (2% above 5-yr avg). SPR historic low 284.6M bbl (down 30% YoY, lowest since late 1982). Gasoline 6-7% below avg, distillate 12-14% below...","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/U36G3q8LRcUNVnqsKxxoyD29VrpCUp_hS1pTIecj8QA/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS9kNzMw/ZTFlZDQ2NTZmYTAw/YzVkZDJiYzQyNTQw/ODQ5MS5wbmc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}