{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"High Variance with Danny Buerkli","title":"The Craft of Foresight – with Florence Gaub","html":"<iframe width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https://share.transistor.fm/e/9c022207\"></iframe>","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":3684,"description":"Florence Gaub — political scientist, military strategist, and director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College — joins Danny Buerkli to talk about the craft of foresight: what makes for a good warning (be concrete, offer options, manage the emotion), the mix of imagination, expert knowledge, and privileged access behind her 2013 call that Egypt was counting down to a coup, and why she has commissioned an audit of her own Ukraine predictions.\nThey also discuss why wars are won by everything you can't touch, why the right analogy for AI in warfare is electricity rather than the bomb (according to Florence), when the first country will go ahead and unilaterally geoengineer the climate, a tour of the field's greats from Clausewitz to Herman Kahn and Edward Luttwak, and why the future is like a toothbrush: everybody needs their own.\nFlorence's favorite gelateria in Monti, mentioned at the very end, is Flor Gelato.\n\nFlorence's books:\nThe Future: A User's Guide\nSzenario","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/fSMAUEwHIc0CkfPeb7IjnfXz-xe_0RX3b1uajY9XKeA/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS85MmY1/YjYzMDAyNTExMzA5/ODdjNGNmNDBiNTNk/YWQ4MC5wbmc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}