{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"Future of Life Institute Podcast","title":"Ajeya Cotra on Forecasting Transformative Artificial Intelligence","html":"<iframe width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https://share.transistor.fm/e/9f81e829\"></iframe>","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":2861,"description":"Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence. Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Ajeya's report on AI 01:16 What is transformative AI? 02:09 Forecasting transformative AI 02:53 Historical growth rates 05:10 Simpler forecasting methods 09:01 Biological anchors 16:31 Different paths to transformative AI 17:55 Which year will we get transformative AI? 25:54 Expert opinion on transformative AI 30:08 Are today's machine learning techniques enough? 33:06 Will AI be limited by the physical world and regulation? 38:15 Will AI be limited by training data? 41:48 Are there human abilities that AIs cannot learn? 47:22 The next episode","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/fFhIC-s2qSlHXzmJI7qMGts2WuLwImi4tWmRLH9EdPg/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS81MmU5/MDZjZGQ5OTI0MDc5/YTk2ZTAxYTgwYTNk/M2VlOC5qcGc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}