{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"80,000 Hours Podcast","title":"#41 - David Roodman on incarceration, geomagnetic storms, & becoming a world-class researcher","html":"","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":8281,"description":"With 698 inmates per 100,000 citizens, the U.S. is by far the leader among large wealthy nations in incarceration. But what effect does imprisonment actually have on crime?\n\nAccording to David Roodman, Senior Advisor to the Open Philanthropy Project, the marginal effect is zero.\n\n* 80,000 HOURS IMPACT SURVEY - Let me know how this show has helped you with your career.\n* ROB'S AUDIOBOOK RECOMMENDATIONS\n\nThis stunning rebuke to the American criminal justice system comes from the man Holden Karnofsky’s called \"the gold standard for in-depth quantitative research\", whose other investigations include the risk of geomagnetic storms, whether deworming improves health and test scores, and the development impacts of microfinance.\n\nLinks to learn more, summary and full transcript.\n\nThe effects of crime can be split into three categories; before, during, and after.\n\nDoes having tougher sentences deter people from committing crime? \n\nAfter reviewing studies on gun laws and ‘three strikes’ in California, David concluded that the effect of deterrence is zero.\n\nDoes imprisoning more people reduce crime by incapacitating potential offenders? \n\nHere he says yes, noting that crimes like motor vehicle theft have gone up in a way that seems pretty clearly connected with recent Californian criminal justice reforms (though the effect on violent crime is far lower).\n\nFinally, do the after-effects of prison make you more or less likely to commit future crimes? \n\nThis one is more complicated.\n\nConcerned that he was biased towards a comfortable position against incarceration, David did a cost-benefit analysis using both his favored reading of the evidence and the devil's advocate view; that there is deterrence and that the after-effects are beneficial.\n\nFor the devil’s advocate position David used the highest assessment of the harm caused by crime, which suggests a year of prison prevents about $92,000 in crime. But weighed against a lost year of liberty, valued at $50,000, plus the cost...","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/VO1STE7hN95RRg9QdLo4soV2VhhbR9PF5ZZlRhDYcwE/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS9zaG93/LzQxNDAyLzE2ODM1/NDQ1NDAtYXJ0d29y/ay5qcGc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}