{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"The Daily Discipline from Project MNDST","title":"Episode 140: Expected Value: The Math Under Every Real Bet","html":"<iframe width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https://share.transistor.fm/e/d8dca224\"></iframe>","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":163,"description":"Today's episode teaches expected value — one of the oldest and most clarifying tools in decision theory — and how thinking in probabilities and payoffs can shift you from chasing outcomes to building better judgment. From Buffett's purchase of See's Candies to a single hand of poker, the model shows up anywhere serious decisions get made, and today's small action gives you a way to apply it to something you're facing right now. Key Topics: expected value, decision-making, probability, mental models, judgment, process vs.","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/ogPqjRZNvFJF_SswC8Bu3gIIzaBBSY8AM_Kmoq8a8uA/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS8yZjQy/Nzk5NDVjNDZmMGU5/MTlkNDMwY2VhN2Q5/Y2FjYS5wbmc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}