{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","provider_name":"Transistor","provider_url":"https://transistor.fm","author_name":"Mubiao Book Notes","title":"《思考，快与慢》第二集：为什么故事会打败概率 / Thinking, Fast and Slow Pt. 2","html":"<iframe width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https://share.transistor.fm/e/e712ebde\"></iframe>","width":"100%","height":180,"duration":617,"description":"三集系列第二集：从谈判里的第一个数字、身边人的成功故事、一次生动的失败案例讲起，解释为什么故事常常比概率更有力量。本集讲锚定、可得性、代表性、基准率、回归均值、过度自信和外部视角。\r\n\r\nPart two of the Chinese series on Thinking, Fast and Slow. This revised episode starts from first numbers, vivid examples, and confident stories, then explains anchoring, availability, representativeness, base rates, regression to the mean, overconfidence, and the outside view.","thumbnail_url":"https://img.transistorcdn.com/fRRjEZwnKsll1P75PAGZPkTNeg-wdTkN46akVYoZOkQ/rs:fill:0:0:1/w:400/h:400/q:60/mb:500000/aHR0cHM6Ly9pbWct/dXBsb2FkLXByb2R1/Y3Rpb24udHJhbnNp/c3Rvci5mbS85Zjhh/MTEyZGNhMjUxMDg5/M2RkNmI3YTVjMGRi/YWNkZC5wbmc.webp","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_height":300}