Daily European Opening Briefing – September 10, 2025:
Geopolitics
- Poland reports unprecedented Russian drone incursions into its airspace during attacks on Ukraine; drones shot down, airports temporarily closed.
- France: President Macron appoints Sebastien Lecornu as new Prime Minister after Bayrou’s failed confidence vote.
- Middle East: Israel struck Hamas officials in Qatar; Doha condemns strike as treachery, Algeria requests UN Security Council meeting. Hamas says leaders survived, though several members were killed.
- Iran and IAEA report progress on resuming inspections; Tehran warns commitments void if hostile actions taken.
- North Korea tests solid-fuel missile engine; China’s Xi congratulates Kim and reaffirms close ties.
Trade & Tariffs
- Trump urges EU to impose 100% tariffs on China and India to pressure Russia; US prepared to mirror measures.
- India and US push forward trade talks, with Modi calling negotiations a path to “limitless potential.”
- US Supreme Court to fast-track Trump administration’s tariff appeal; Treasury Secretary Bessent confident tariffs will be upheld.
Forex / FX
- Dollar steadies ahead of US PPI and CPI.
- Euro dips below 1.17, pressured by Polish drone incident.
- Yen firm as BoJ still sees scope to hike this year despite political turbulence.
- Sterling holds near 1.36 with focus on UK data later in the week.
- Antipodeans supported by firmer PBoC fix but capped by weak Chinese CPI.
Commodities
- Crude oil higher on Middle East tensions and Poland drone violation.
- US private inventories: crude +1.3mln bbls vs. exp. -1.0mln.
- Gold rebounds, trading near record highs.
- Copper edges higher with broader risk tone.
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