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It wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening’
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.html
Bloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-march
Stanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Ahead
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htm
Christopher Waller Let’s Get On with It
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdf
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Disclaimer
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What is Eurodollar University?
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.