Escondida Strike Cancelled, Antofagasta Guides 2027 Below Consensus, and a Hot CPI Hits Metals

Escondida supervisors ratified a three-year contract with BHP, cancelling the strike. Antofagasta reported Q3 copper output of 151,900 tonnes and guided 2027 below consensus. Hot U.S. inflation pushed gold to about US$4,107, China's September customs data showed weaker iron ore imports, and a court overturned the heritage block on Regis's McPhillamys gold project.

Show Notes

Escondida Supervisors Ratify a Three-Year Contract and the Strike Is Cancelled: First, Escondida, where the strike that markets had been pricing in has been cancelled. Shanghai Metals Market reports supervisors at the world's largest copper mine approved a new three-year contract with BHP on Wednesday, with about 64 percent of the vote. La Tercera reports the union's 1,020 members ratified the agreement and the negotiating committees signed it. Bloomberg's headline: "BHP Escondida Workers Approve Deal, Averting Copper Strike." Antofagasta Misses on Q3 Copper and Gold, Guides 2027 Below Consensus: Next, Antofagasta, which reported third-quarter production on Thursday. Copper output was 151,900 tonnes, up 7 percent from 142,000 tonnes in the second quarter, but about 2 percent below the company-compiled consensus of 155,000 tonnes, according to Alliance News. Output for the nine months is 436,900 tonnes, down 8.3 percent. Full-year guidance is held at 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes. Hot U.S. Inflation Print Knocks Gold Below US$4,110 and Copper Lower: Meanwhile, the macro backdrop turned on Wednesday. Kitco reports U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7 percent in the 12 months to September, up from 3.4 percent in August and above the 3.6 percent economists expected. Core inflation rose to 2.6 percent, against an expected 2.5. Gasoline rose 9.1 percent in the month and accounted for more than half of the monthly headline increase. China's September Customs Data: Iron Ore and Copper Concentrate Imports Fall: Next, China's September customs data, compiled by Shanghai Metals Market from the General Administration of Customs. Iron ore and concentrate imports were 109.82 million tonnes, down 5.6 percent from September 2025. For January through September, imports were 954.97 million tonnes, up 4.1 percent. Dalian's most-traded iron ore contract settled at 674 yuan a tonne on Wednesday, down 0.81 percent, according to Shanghai Metals Market's daily report. Court Overturns Heritage Block on Regis Resources' McPhillamys Gold Project: Finally, a permitting ruling in Australia. The Federal Court declared invalid a Commonwealth heritage protection declaration that had stalled Regis Resources' McPhillamys gold project near Blayney in New South Wales, Australian Mining reports. The declaration was made in August 2024 by then environment minister Tanya Plibersek and covered 400 hectares, including the planned tailings dam site. Regis launched its challenge in November 2024. Sources: - Shanghai Metals Market — Escondida Supervisors Ratify a Three-Year Contract and the Strike Is Cancelled: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104157785-escondida-main-union-approves-new-three-year-contract-planned-strike-canceled-smm-analysis - La Tercera — Escondida Supervisors Ratify a Three-Year Contract and the Strike Is Cancelled: https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/minera-escondida-y-sindicato-de-supervisores-sellan-acuerdo-y-evitan-la-huelga/ - Bloomberg — Escondida Supervisors Ratify a Three-Year Contract and the Strike Is Cancelled: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14/world-s-top-copper-mine-faces-strike-as-wage-talks-break-down - Mining.com — Escondida Supervisors Ratify a Three-Year Contract and the Strike Is Cancelled: https://www.mining.com/copper-price-forecasts-lifted-for-2026-but-tariff-collapse-still-on-the-table/ - Antofagasta plc Q3 2026 Production Report — Antofagasta Misses on Q3 Copper and Gold, Guides 2027 Below Consensus: https://www.antofagasta.co.uk/media/4976/20261015_aplc26q3prodreport-oct26-vf.pdf - Alliance News via ii.co.uk — Antofagasta Misses on Q3 Copper and Gold, Guides 2027 Below Consensus: https://www.ii.co.uk/news/antofagasta-flags-cost-pressures-as-2027-outlook-falls-short-of-hopes-al1792050822003579700 - Mining Weekly — Antofagasta Misses on Q3 Copper and Gold, Guides 2027 Below Consensus: https://www.miningweekly.com/article/antofagasta-third-quarter-copper-output-rises-7-backs-2026-forecast-2026-10-15 - BNamericas — Antofagasta Misses on Q3 Copper and Gold, Guides 2027 Below Consensus: https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/labor-disputes-involving-around-1700-workers-and-13-deaths-in-2026-put-pressure-on-mining-in-chile - Reuters via Mining.com.au — Antofagasta Misses on Q3 Copper and Gold, Guides 2027 Below Consensus: https://mining.com.au/striking-unions-and-centinela-copper-mine-restart-negotiations/ - Kitco News — Hot U.S. Inflation Print Knocks Gold Below US$4,110 and Copper Lower: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-14/gold-price-drops-session-lows-us-cpi-heats-september - Perplexity Finance (copper) — Hot U.S. Inflation Print Knocks Gold Below US$4,110 and Copper Lower: https://www.perplexity.ai/finance/HGUSD - Mining.com — Hot U.S. Inflation Print Knocks Gold Below US$4,110 and Copper Lower: https://www.mining.com/copper-price-forecasts-lifted-for-2026-but-tariff-collapse-still-on-the-table/ - Shanghai Metals Market (GAC data) — China's September Customs Data: Iron Ore and Copper Concentrate Imports Fall: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104157221-gac-copper-semis-imports-fell-65-rare-earth-imports-fell-24-and-aluminum-semis-exports-rose-178-in-the-first-three-quarters - Shanghai Metals Market (copper concentrate) — China's September Customs Data: Iron Ore and Copper Concentrate Imports Fall: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104157119-chinas-copper-concentrate-imports-fell-both-mom-and-yoy-in-september-2026 - Australian Mining — Court Overturns Heritage Block on Regis Resources' McPhillamys Gold Project: https://www.australianmining.com.au/regis-wins-mcphillamys-court-challenge/ - ABC News — Court Overturns Heritage Block on Regis Resources' McPhillamys Gold Project: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-14/federal-court-overturns-commonwealth-gold-mine-decision/107260458 - Australian Financial Review — Court Overturns Heritage Block on Regis Resources' McPhillamys Gold Project: https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/court-overturns-plibersek-s-cultural-heritage-block-on-1b-gold-mine-20261014-p615fq - Mugglehead (citing Regis release) — Court Overturns Heritage Block on Regis Resources' McPhillamys Gold Project: https://mugglehead.com/regis-resources-mcphillamys-heritage-declaration-court-ruling/ - CNBC — Tomorrow's Flashpoint: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/gold-eases-on-firm-dollar-spotlight-on-us-inflation-data.html

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