WEBVTT NOTE This file was generated by Descript 00:00:00.870 --> 00:00:06.600 Welcome to Resilience Talk hosted by Paul Spencer of Second Nature Solutions. 00:00:07.020 --> 00:00:07.860 Let's dive in. 00:00:08.843 --> 00:00:12.473 Brandon Giella: Hello and welcome back to another episode 00:00:12.533 --> 00:00:14.663 of the Resilient Talk podcast. 00:00:14.753 --> 00:00:17.633 We have not had an episode in quite a while. 00:00:17.663 --> 00:00:21.653 We've taken a, taken a little bit of a break, but I am so glad that we're 00:00:21.653 --> 00:00:29.603 back, Paul, because your work in building resilient businesses arguably 00:00:29.663 --> 00:00:35.303 has never been more important than right now because we are experiencing. 00:00:35.933 --> 00:00:38.513 What you're calling an age of transition. 00:00:39.203 --> 00:00:45.923 We are going from one era to another, and in between those two eras is a lot 00:00:45.923 --> 00:00:54.803 of uncertainty and I think something that is very pointed, a particular within 00:00:54.803 --> 00:01:00.923 that universal is the tariff situation where it's causing a lot of uncertainty. 00:01:01.883 --> 00:01:07.253 But as you, you had mentioned, uh, when we were talking, uh, before recording 00:01:07.253 --> 00:01:15.233 the episode that um, the tariff situation is a strategy against a backdrop of 00:01:15.233 --> 00:01:18.113 these macro forces that are affecting. 00:01:18.908 --> 00:01:23.408 Businesses, economies, immigration, geopolitical tensions. 00:01:23.438 --> 00:01:28.118 There's so much even, uh, you know, technological changes. 00:01:28.118 --> 00:01:32.018 The way that companies are adopting ai, the way that they're 00:01:32.048 --> 00:01:33.488 building their supply chains. 00:01:33.488 --> 00:01:36.668 There's just so much going on because of these giant macro 00:01:36.668 --> 00:01:38.168 forces that we're gonna get into. 00:01:39.218 --> 00:01:45.488 And so you have written an article about this age of transition to help businesses. 00:01:46.223 --> 00:01:49.463 Become more resilient to handle these uncertainties. 00:01:49.823 --> 00:01:54.923 And so I want to hear from you what started this article, what, what 00:01:54.923 --> 00:01:59.093 gave rise to you sitting down pen and paper and thinking about these things. 00:01:59.513 --> 00:02:02.933 Um, and then we'll get into some of the things that you, you mentioned in 00:02:02.933 --> 00:02:05.963 this that, especially these two big shifts that are occurring right now. 00:02:06.353 --> 00:02:08.093 So what, what started you talking about this? 00:02:08.618 --> 00:02:08.948 Paul Spencer: Yeah. 00:02:08.948 --> 00:02:15.848 Um, well I saw a clip um, RFK Junior, I think it was in a cabinet meeting, and 00:02:15.848 --> 00:02:17.408 he was talking about the SNAP program. 00:02:18.188 --> 00:02:21.728 then he used the, the phrase, the soda industry is knocking on my door. 00:02:23.168 --> 00:02:29.798 and uh, the gist of it is, is that he wants to change the SNAP program 00:02:29.798 --> 00:02:32.618 to be more nutritious, right? 00:02:32.618 --> 00:02:33.038 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:02:33.123 --> 00:02:35.213 Mm-hmm. 00:02:35.353 --> 00:02:37.453 Paul Spencer: of, of food for, for students. 00:02:37.963 --> 00:02:42.613 Um, and what I gathered through from the clip is that the, the soda 00:02:42.613 --> 00:02:46.453 industry is making an argument that, well, nutrition's not part of it, 00:02:46.453 --> 00:02:47.983 it's just part of a food program. 00:02:48.403 --> 00:02:51.253 And, and then he made the quip that, well, it's called the Student 00:02:51.673 --> 00:02:53.293 Nutrition Assistance Program. 00:02:54.463 --> 00:02:57.853 and kinda made me chuck a little bit because you can, you can 00:02:57.853 --> 00:03:00.583 see in the back room that, uh. 00:03:01.453 --> 00:03:05.053 the soda industry is saying, geez, we got this huge account, 00:03:05.578 --> 00:03:05.798 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:03:06.253 --> 00:03:07.423 Paul Spencer: It's seamless. 00:03:07.783 --> 00:03:09.403 There's hardly any friction here. 00:03:09.403 --> 00:03:12.313 It just renews over and over and over again. 00:03:12.643 --> 00:03:14.743 It's through the entire United States. 00:03:15.043 --> 00:03:17.113 Um, it's just good money, right? 00:03:17.533 --> 00:03:21.378 And now we're getting something that's happening jeopardizing 00:03:21.583 --> 00:03:22.813 this, this big account. 00:03:23.138 --> 00:03:23.738 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:03:23.893 --> 00:03:25.063 Paul Spencer: so this happens a lot. 00:03:25.838 --> 00:03:30.428 our businesses where, uh, something changes or something shifts either 00:03:30.428 --> 00:03:35.828 within our market or maybe even the macro side of things, um, are shifting. 00:03:35.828 --> 00:03:42.578 And now some of our well-known primary customers are coming back to us and, and 00:03:42.878 --> 00:03:45.098 they're saying, Hey, can we cut costs? 00:03:45.323 --> 00:03:46.103 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:03:46.268 --> 00:03:49.388 Paul Spencer: bit more, Hey, can we, uh, can we pause? 00:03:49.418 --> 00:03:49.688 Right? 00:03:49.688 --> 00:03:50.918 Can we do some of those things? 00:03:50.918 --> 00:03:52.958 And you're saying, geez, these are, these are. 00:03:53.198 --> 00:03:56.978 Our top five customers, um, if we lose them, right? 00:03:56.978 --> 00:04:00.668 You, you kind of hit the panic button and you say, if we lose them, just like the 00:04:00.668 --> 00:04:03.068 soda industry, if we lose this account. 00:04:03.548 --> 00:04:05.048 What's that gonna do for us? 00:04:05.138 --> 00:04:05.438 Right. 00:04:06.053 --> 00:04:06.143 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:04:06.518 --> 00:04:10.868 Paul Spencer: and so what comes to mind just in that example is, uh, we are 00:04:10.868 --> 00:04:15.788 in this, this age of transition and this one's pretty specific and it's 00:04:15.788 --> 00:04:21.158 more of a, a government shift rather than maybe a, a macro shift where the 00:04:21.158 --> 00:04:22.928 government at a stroke of a pen can 00:04:23.363 --> 00:04:23.963 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:04:24.788 --> 00:04:26.468 Paul Spencer: and say, we're gonna do this and not do that. 00:04:26.468 --> 00:04:28.148 And everybody kind of whipsaw with that. 00:04:28.598 --> 00:04:30.458 Um, and that's the risk of having. 00:04:30.923 --> 00:04:31.823 Government accounts. 00:04:31.823 --> 00:04:32.153 Right. 00:04:32.498 --> 00:04:32.738 Brandon Giella: Yep. 00:04:33.233 --> 00:04:37.343 Paul Spencer: but we also have this reality where things are in 00:04:37.343 --> 00:04:38.698 transition like you described. 00:04:39.323 --> 00:04:42.473 With the tariffs and with trade and with everything else. 00:04:42.803 --> 00:04:47.333 Um, and so when we know that we have our top five meaning customers, 00:04:47.498 --> 00:04:47.768 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:04:47.813 --> 00:04:52.223 Paul Spencer: um, hopefully we have a diverse client list, right? 00:04:52.223 --> 00:04:57.323 We don't have one customer or two, we have at least five or, 00:04:57.803 --> 00:04:58.553 Brandon Giella: Hopefully yes. 00:04:58.888 --> 00:05:01.613 Paul Spencer: but we, we likely have every, the audiences 00:05:01.613 --> 00:05:03.113 listening to this are mature. 00:05:03.278 --> 00:05:05.768 Companies have been around for 30, 50 years, right? 00:05:05.768 --> 00:05:07.748 So you have a good client base. 00:05:08.048 --> 00:05:11.018 Um, and part of that risk management is making sure that you have a 00:05:11.018 --> 00:05:12.788 diversified client base, right? 00:05:13.478 --> 00:05:18.368 But we also know that our top five customers provide a 00:05:18.368 --> 00:05:20.138 good chunk of our, our annual 00:05:20.303 --> 00:05:20.513 Brandon Giella: Yep. 00:05:20.898 --> 00:05:21.318 Mm-hmm. 00:05:21.908 --> 00:05:22.779 Paul Spencer: maybe even more than that. 00:05:23.058 --> 00:05:23.478 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:05:23.498 --> 00:05:24.668 Paul Spencer: Um, which is okay. 00:05:25.148 --> 00:05:25.718 Um. 00:05:26.333 --> 00:05:31.553 That provides an opportunity, sometimes it provides some vulnerability we just 00:05:31.553 --> 00:05:36.773 need to be able to ask ourselves, again using this, this RFK junior example 00:05:37.043 --> 00:05:43.163 that if something changes within our top five, and let's just say we lose 00:05:43.373 --> 00:05:47.993 one of our top five, they're just gone For whatever reason, A resilient 00:05:47.993 --> 00:05:51.743 business tends to say, not ideal. 00:05:51.758 --> 00:05:54.908 You know, I, I, I don't, I wouldn't wish that to happen. 00:05:54.908 --> 00:05:56.318 I don't want it to happen. 00:05:56.798 --> 00:06:01.628 Um, and it's gonna push up against different aspects of our business, right? 00:06:02.408 --> 00:06:04.568 but in the end, it's not the end of our end of the world 00:06:04.768 --> 00:06:05.188 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:06:05.738 --> 00:06:09.518 Paul Spencer: Um, and we'll be able to adjust and we'll likely just be able to 00:06:09.518 --> 00:06:11.259 recoup everything at, at a point in time. 00:06:11.738 --> 00:06:16.328 And the reason why we're able to say that is not because we put our head in the 00:06:16.328 --> 00:06:18.158 sand and we're just ignoring the problem. 00:06:19.148 --> 00:06:19.868 uh, we're just. 00:06:20.558 --> 00:06:24.188 Being naive about it, it's because we have a resilient business. 00:06:24.338 --> 00:06:28.208 And a resilient business means that I have confidence. 00:06:29.003 --> 00:06:33.473 It's been demonstrated that I have a system on the sales 00:06:33.473 --> 00:06:35.573 side, that it's an engine, 00:06:36.183 --> 00:06:36.403 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:06:36.408 --> 00:06:36.488 Hmm. 00:06:37.103 --> 00:06:40.343 Paul Spencer: And I have confidence that yeah, we lose, we lose a big account, 00:06:40.553 --> 00:06:42.263 but that engine is still running 00:06:42.523 --> 00:06:43.113 Brandon Giella: and I know 00:06:43.133 --> 00:06:44.293 Paul Spencer: that it can produce, 00:06:44.963 --> 00:06:49.673 That is a sign of resiliency regardless of what's what's happening around us, right? 00:06:49.793 --> 00:06:53.363 And then I also know that within my delivery side, my delivery 00:06:53.363 --> 00:06:55.793 engine is also running very well. 00:06:56.498 --> 00:07:00.938 And when something happens, with a customer or some kind of other 00:07:00.938 --> 00:07:06.248 imposed input, I know that they're also capable of adjusting and, uh, 00:07:06.278 --> 00:07:10.058 switching things out and pivoting, and then we'll, we'll be fine. 00:07:10.178 --> 00:07:10.478 Right? 00:07:10.718 --> 00:07:13.538 Again, it's not gonna be easy, it's not gonna be painless. 00:07:13.958 --> 00:07:15.428 Um, but we can get through it. 00:07:15.728 --> 00:07:19.988 Right, as opposed to somebody who is in a, what I would call a traditional 00:07:19.988 --> 00:07:23.858 business who's not really thinking about these things and just kind of goes 00:07:23.858 --> 00:07:26.593 about their business, this would absorb. 00:07:27.308 --> 00:07:29.258 All of the oxygen 00:07:29.618 --> 00:07:29.978 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:07:30.008 --> 00:07:33.668 Paul Spencer: room for their entire business, for the next, I don't 00:07:33.668 --> 00:07:35.438 know, year and a half, right? 00:07:35.648 --> 00:07:38.618 And it may, may throw them so far off course that it may 00:07:38.618 --> 00:07:40.208 jeopardize the business itself, 00:07:40.358 --> 00:07:40.658 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:07:40.778 --> 00:07:44.168 Paul Spencer: can't think, they can't sleep, they can't do anything else. 00:07:44.168 --> 00:07:47.053 But, but try to consider why did we lose that account? 00:07:47.073 --> 00:07:48.518 How do we get that account back? 00:07:48.758 --> 00:07:49.028 Right? 00:07:49.028 --> 00:07:49.838 All those things. 00:07:49.838 --> 00:07:53.678 And they, they can't, um, recover, uh, because they 00:07:53.678 --> 00:07:54.998 don't have resilience systems. 00:07:55.358 --> 00:07:55.928 Brandon Giella: You're saying? 00:07:55.928 --> 00:07:58.898 Yeah, that's a sys, that's a business without a system is one 00:07:58.898 --> 00:08:00.548 that is gonna be, yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:08:01.013 --> 00:08:02.333 Paul Spencer: that's more ad hoc. 00:08:02.563 --> 00:08:02.983 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:08:03.773 --> 00:08:07.883 Paul Spencer: uh, and every business has a process or a system, but, 00:08:07.913 --> 00:08:10.253 uh, a lot of times it's invisible. 00:08:11.243 --> 00:08:12.443 and it's not transparent, 00:08:12.788 --> 00:08:13.088 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:08:13.283 --> 00:08:13.613 Paul Spencer: right? 00:08:13.643 --> 00:08:16.193 And nobody can look at it because it's in Paul's head. 00:08:17.243 --> 00:08:19.133 and when it comes down to it, um. 00:08:19.493 --> 00:08:21.713 Paul's head cannot run the business when, 00:08:21.788 --> 00:08:21.968 Brandon Giella: right. 00:08:22.163 --> 00:08:23.633 Paul Spencer: when things are shifting. 00:08:23.663 --> 00:08:23.903 Right. 00:08:23.903 --> 00:08:24.203 When you're 00:08:24.218 --> 00:08:24.578 Brandon Giella: That's right. 00:08:24.773 --> 00:08:25.553 Paul Spencer: of transition. 00:08:25.808 --> 00:08:26.648 Brandon Giella: That's right, that's right. 00:08:27.218 --> 00:08:30.728 You used a phrase, you called, uh, imposed input. 00:08:31.208 --> 00:08:31.658 Can you. 00:08:32.273 --> 00:08:38.273 Define that or, or describe that and then talk about these two major imposed inputs 00:08:38.273 --> 00:08:43.133 that you see businesses facing now, but especially in the next five years or so. 00:08:43.673 --> 00:08:44.153 Paul Spencer: Yeah, sure. 00:08:44.153 --> 00:08:48.773 So imposed inputs, uh, is something that I learned from, from, uh, from 00:08:48.773 --> 00:08:52.283 Deming and system of profound knowledge. 00:08:52.283 --> 00:08:56.393 So when we're, when we're mapping out or processes and we're 00:08:56.393 --> 00:08:58.703 being aware of those, um, I. 00:08:59.003 --> 00:09:01.763 You have inputs into your system, right? 00:09:01.763 --> 00:09:05.933 So if we're building furniture, right, you have lumber, you have hardware, 00:09:06.203 --> 00:09:10.583 like the screws and the, the, the metal pieces that are coming in, right? 00:09:10.703 --> 00:09:12.113 The, the knobs, right? 00:09:12.113 --> 00:09:13.223 Those are all inputs. 00:09:13.313 --> 00:09:14.513 And you get to choose those. 00:09:14.513 --> 00:09:16.433 You get to choose what type of wood, right? 00:09:16.433 --> 00:09:17.573 Which type of material. 00:09:17.873 --> 00:09:21.388 Um, an imposed input is something that you don't have any, you, 00:09:21.393 --> 00:09:22.883 you can't opt out of, right? 00:09:23.058 --> 00:09:23.138 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:09:23.153 --> 00:09:24.443 Paul Spencer: non-negotiable, right? 00:09:24.773 --> 00:09:27.143 Um, and so that could be things like. 00:09:28.013 --> 00:09:28.523 economy. 00:09:28.523 --> 00:09:34.073 You might be in a recession, might have the, the ash bore bug, right? 00:09:34.283 --> 00:09:36.683 Who goes through and eats up all the ash trees and now 00:09:36.713 --> 00:09:37.013 Brandon Giella: Yes. 00:09:37.013 --> 00:09:37.433 Yes, yes. 00:09:37.673 --> 00:09:38.783 Paul Spencer: ash trees anymore. 00:09:38.813 --> 00:09:39.143 Right? 00:09:39.263 --> 00:09:41.573 Or the cost of ash trees are through the roof and now 00:09:41.603 --> 00:09:41.813 Brandon Giella: Yep. 00:09:41.873 --> 00:09:44.633 Paul Spencer: use different wood, even though that's not our preferred wood 00:09:44.798 --> 00:09:45.218 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:09:45.773 --> 00:09:47.093 Paul Spencer: there's nothing you can do about that. 00:09:47.248 --> 00:09:47.468 Brandon Giella: Yep. 00:09:48.128 --> 00:09:48.348 Yep. 00:09:48.383 --> 00:09:50.333 Paul Spencer: so an imposed input is, is just. 00:09:50.753 --> 00:09:52.973 We live in that always. 00:09:53.303 --> 00:09:56.303 And it's important to, to map that out. 00:09:56.303 --> 00:10:01.013 Sometimes, um, some business leaders think it's, it's a little too, um, 00:10:01.073 --> 00:10:05.393 much into the weeds to think about what those are and actually write them down. 00:10:05.598 --> 00:10:05.678 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:10:05.783 --> 00:10:10.133 Paul Spencer: Um, but when we have core processes, systems in our 00:10:10.133 --> 00:10:14.283 business, it is helpful to understand the difference between what's chosen. 00:10:14.943 --> 00:10:17.873 Meaning what are the things that we have control over and what 00:10:17.873 --> 00:10:19.403 are the ones that are imposed? 00:10:19.553 --> 00:10:23.843 And when we have a clear understanding of what's imposed, I mean, you, Brandon, 00:10:23.843 --> 00:10:25.973 you and I may, may say that's imposed. 00:10:25.973 --> 00:10:29.723 And then as we talk about it, we agree that hmm, we actually have 00:10:29.723 --> 00:10:31.143 more control of that than we thought. 00:10:31.143 --> 00:10:32.633 And And we move it up 00:10:33.103 --> 00:10:33.223 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:10:33.353 --> 00:10:34.073 Paul Spencer: into a chosen. 00:10:34.418 --> 00:10:37.913 And what that does is that changes how our process actually works. 00:10:38.428 --> 00:10:38.508 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:10:38.723 --> 00:10:39.023 Paul Spencer: Right. 00:10:39.083 --> 00:10:42.323 And so if we wanna do process improvement or we wanna be resilient 00:10:42.743 --> 00:10:46.583 and we can't change, uh, the ash tree 00:10:48.623 --> 00:10:53.423 uh, then we may update or change our processes to be able to handle different 00:10:53.423 --> 00:10:55.103 types of wood materials, right? 00:10:55.433 --> 00:10:55.883 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:10:56.123 --> 00:10:56.124 Mm-hmm. 00:10:56.243 --> 00:10:58.283 Paul Spencer: that is, that is a resilient business. 00:10:58.733 --> 00:11:03.493 It's really difficult to be able to handle that if you don't have eyes on site, 00:11:03.763 --> 00:11:06.668 An awareness on what your imposed inputs are. 00:11:07.508 --> 00:11:07.958 Brandon Giella: Interesting. 00:11:08.018 --> 00:11:08.408 Okay. 00:11:08.528 --> 00:11:08.888 Okay. 00:11:09.488 --> 00:11:14.288 So things you can control and things you can't control and the things you can't 00:11:14.318 --> 00:11:16.688 control are inputs that are imposed. 00:11:16.718 --> 00:11:18.578 You have to deal with them as they are. 00:11:18.638 --> 00:11:18.998 They are. 00:11:18.998 --> 00:11:20.588 This is the facts of the case. 00:11:20.708 --> 00:11:21.638 You can't get out of it. 00:11:22.148 --> 00:11:22.808 That's what it is. 00:11:23.018 --> 00:11:23.258 Okay. 00:11:23.333 --> 00:11:30.773 Paul Spencer: some imposed inputs, uh, be over time moved to, to, to chosen. 00:11:31.058 --> 00:11:31.388 Brandon Giella: Okay. 00:11:31.388 --> 00:11:32.468 I that's helpful. 00:11:32.498 --> 00:11:32.768 Okay. 00:11:32.828 --> 00:11:33.308 I like that. 00:11:33.593 --> 00:11:36.353 Paul Spencer: So, um, uh, let's take weather. 00:11:37.418 --> 00:11:37.778 Right. 00:11:37.868 --> 00:11:39.218 Let's say we're a home builder, 00:11:40.088 --> 00:11:40.168 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:11:40.658 --> 00:11:45.578 Paul Spencer: home builder, and uh, and we're, uh, let's say in Florida 00:11:45.668 --> 00:11:50.528 and it rains a lot and it's hard to build quality houses the way we like 00:11:50.528 --> 00:11:51.998 to build them because it rains a lot. 00:11:52.418 --> 00:11:56.948 Well, uh, we can't change the weather, but maybe we say we're 00:11:56.948 --> 00:12:00.728 not gonna do business in Florida, we're gonna do it in, uh, Phoenix, 00:12:01.108 --> 00:12:02.488 Brandon Giella: Which is happening, by the way. 00:12:02.488 --> 00:12:05.278 Insurers are saying that, they're like, Hey, we, we're not gonna 00:12:05.278 --> 00:12:07.948 insure your property in, in Florida or California, or whatever. 00:12:07.948 --> 00:12:08.248 Yeah. 00:12:08.253 --> 00:12:08.633 Mm-hmm. 00:12:08.733 --> 00:12:09.153 Mm-hmm. 00:12:09.188 --> 00:12:12.128 Paul Spencer: what you're doing is you're, you're, you are adjusting, 00:12:12.128 --> 00:12:13.628 you're, instead of just dealing with it, 00:12:13.893 --> 00:12:14.183 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:12:14.348 --> 00:12:17.228 Paul Spencer: you're adjusting it and making it a, a chosen input, 00:12:17.423 --> 00:12:17.863 Brandon Giella: I like that. 00:12:18.158 --> 00:12:22.328 Paul Spencer: your business model because of some of the input imposed inputs, 00:12:22.328 --> 00:12:24.518 which essentially are constraints right 00:12:24.598 --> 00:12:24.688 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:12:24.688 --> 00:12:24.689 Yeah. 00:12:24.689 --> 00:12:24.690 Yeah. 00:12:24.878 --> 00:12:25.808 Paul Spencer: around your business. 00:12:25.808 --> 00:12:28.058 Another, another example is the government. 00:12:29.008 --> 00:12:29.208 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:12:29.588 --> 00:12:32.738 Paul Spencer: may have a regulation, may have some way of doing something, 00:12:32.798 --> 00:12:38.498 and then you may lobby your congress person right about this as a small 00:12:38.498 --> 00:12:43.628 business and they may help you change a law or get a law passed, which helps 00:12:43.628 --> 00:12:47.798 or get rid of a regulation or add a regulation which helps the business 00:12:47.798 --> 00:12:50.588 environment and move an imposed input up 00:12:50.588 --> 00:12:50.708 Brandon Giella: Hmm 00:12:50.768 --> 00:12:51.218 Paul Spencer: chosen. 00:12:52.058 --> 00:12:52.508 So those are 00:12:52.523 --> 00:12:52.583 Brandon Giella: hmm. 00:12:52.583 --> 00:12:52.824 That's really helpful. 00:12:54.068 --> 00:12:58.238 Okay, but you've got two big ones that you referenced in the article and, and 00:12:58.298 --> 00:13:01.958 are kind of guiding your thinking now in this next era that we're entering into. 00:13:01.958 --> 00:13:05.768 So talk to me about these, these two I, I don't wanna give, give 'em away. 00:13:05.768 --> 00:13:11.108 So tell me what the two major, um, shifts or, or imposed inputs in this 00:13:11.138 --> 00:13:12.788 coming era that we're facing now. 00:13:13.043 --> 00:13:13.313 Paul Spencer: Yeah. 00:13:13.313 --> 00:13:17.303 So we're in this, uh, so if you think about, uh, if everybody's heard 00:13:17.303 --> 00:13:22.224 of Neil Howell and, uh, the fourth turning, recommend you read that book. 00:13:22.229 --> 00:13:22.528 It's a. 00:13:23.008 --> 00:13:23.088 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:13:23.318 --> 00:13:24.488 Paul Spencer: It's a thick book. 00:13:24.548 --> 00:13:25.898 I think it's very interesting. 00:13:25.898 --> 00:13:30.608 So it's a quick read for me, uh, but uh, maybe you could listen to it twice. 00:13:30.608 --> 00:13:32.528 Speed on audio if you're 00:13:32.543 --> 00:13:32.903 Brandon Giella: Okay. 00:13:32.903 --> 00:13:34.343 Yeah, I'll write down the audible one. 00:13:35.948 --> 00:13:38.798 Paul Spencer: Uh, anyway, so he's got, uh, it's a very. 00:13:39.263 --> 00:13:44.633 I think it's super interesting to think about the generations, uh, and the 00:13:44.633 --> 00:13:46.913 four generations and how they turn. 00:13:47.603 --> 00:13:52.253 Um, and so we're in that fourth generation, which in, in his model, 00:13:52.253 --> 00:13:55.733 which I think is actually proving itself out, even today we're 00:13:56.023 --> 00:13:56.103 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:13:56.693 --> 00:13:59.123 Paul Spencer: is that when you, when you experience that fourth generation, 00:13:59.123 --> 00:14:03.623 which is four generations living when they're all living together, right? 00:14:03.623 --> 00:14:08.153 They're all alive at the same time, um, and coming of age at the same time. 00:14:08.918 --> 00:14:14.258 Is that on that fourth one is when you have more of a environment, 00:14:14.558 --> 00:14:14.739 Brandon Giella: Hmm, Hmm. 00:14:14.798 --> 00:14:15.998 Paul Spencer: more of a crisis 00:14:16.448 --> 00:14:16.538 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:14:16.898 --> 00:14:20.588 Paul Spencer: all the things that were built prior generations as 00:14:20.588 --> 00:14:23.108 far as, uh, maybe the government. 00:14:23.468 --> 00:14:28.358 Or the institutions, or maybe even could be even values, religious values 00:14:28.358 --> 00:14:32.408 or non-religious values or whatever those things are that that grew. 00:14:32.408 --> 00:14:37.598 This society or this civilization are no longer relevant or no longer really 00:14:37.598 --> 00:14:43.298 working either because they are not relevant or because they become so stale 00:14:43.718 --> 00:14:47.228 and so abused that they no longer work. 00:14:47.703 --> 00:14:47.783 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:14:48.008 --> 00:14:51.548 Paul Spencer: And so people, uh, it becomes a very chaotic environment. 00:14:51.548 --> 00:14:52.748 And that's, that's his theory. 00:14:52.748 --> 00:14:54.278 That's, that's where we are today. 00:14:54.458 --> 00:15:02.318 And so, so environment that we're in is we have a demographic shift. 00:15:02.998 --> 00:15:03.088 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:15:03.158 --> 00:15:05.558 Paul Spencer: we have the boomer generation that's 00:15:06.038 --> 00:15:08.438 coming out of age, right? 00:15:09.518 --> 00:15:12.938 and so the next biggest generation is the millennial generation. 00:15:13.178 --> 00:15:19.283 And so what's happening is, Throughout the entire world that boomer 00:15:19.283 --> 00:15:23.453 generation is leaving the earth, right, 00:15:24.248 --> 00:15:26.108 Brandon Giella: It's a, it's a great way to put it. 00:15:26.108 --> 00:15:26.618 Yes, correct. 00:15:26.993 --> 00:15:31.343 Paul Spencer: what, what we're, what we're experiencing is, uh, a loss in population 00:15:32.003 --> 00:15:34.883 in the, uh, in the developed world, 00:15:35.168 --> 00:15:35.408 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:15:35.483 --> 00:15:35.783 Paul Spencer: right? 00:15:36.113 --> 00:15:41.393 And so with that, that means that we are going to have issues. 00:15:42.143 --> 00:15:43.853 Uh, it's gonna be harder to produce. 00:15:44.678 --> 00:15:45.008 Right. 00:15:45.878 --> 00:15:49.418 it's gonna be harder to have, uh, certain living standards 00:15:49.418 --> 00:15:50.768 if you're not able to produce. 00:15:52.328 --> 00:15:55.508 and there are some countries that are falling off the cliff, right? 00:15:55.508 --> 00:15:56.708 You can just look these things up. 00:15:57.098 --> 00:16:00.518 But some countries, Europe, China, right? 00:16:00.638 --> 00:16:01.778 They're off the cliff. 00:16:02.228 --> 00:16:07.238 So meaning, uh, they will lose a lot of population, a lot of productivity power 00:16:07.568 --> 00:16:07.788 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:16:07.898 --> 00:16:10.028 Paul Spencer: the coming however many years, right? 00:16:10.128 --> 00:16:10.548 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:16:10.988 --> 00:16:13.238 Paul Spencer: Um, the US is just barely. 00:16:14.138 --> 00:16:16.328 Under reproducing. 00:16:16.688 --> 00:16:22.268 Um, but uh, we also have a immigration, uh, lever that we can pull, right? 00:16:22.418 --> 00:16:24.248 Um, people want to come here. 00:16:24.878 --> 00:16:28.508 Um, and so anyway, that's changing the world and it's changing how 00:16:28.508 --> 00:16:30.398 things are gonna, things are gonna go 00:16:30.658 --> 00:16:31.078 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:16:31.238 --> 00:16:36.848 Paul Spencer: The, uh, the second one is that the global trade, um. 00:16:37.733 --> 00:16:43.013 Pattern that we've had is also slowly, or maybe from your perspective 00:16:43.013 --> 00:16:45.623 today, is quickly disintegrating 00:16:46.523 --> 00:16:46.613 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:16:46.703 --> 00:16:50.153 Paul Spencer: shifting and it's becoming more of a regional economy, 00:16:50.153 --> 00:16:55.253 more of a, have you and me, Brandon, let's you and I trade and make a 00:16:55.253 --> 00:16:57.803 deal and using Trump's words, right. 00:16:57.923 --> 00:17:01.463 Make a deal and then let's you and I make a deal and then we become friends and, 00:17:01.763 --> 00:17:06.293 and the whole regional type economy is. 00:17:06.743 --> 00:17:08.273 Seems to be where we're going. 00:17:08.423 --> 00:17:08.753 Right. 00:17:09.053 --> 00:17:09.293 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:17:09.803 --> 00:17:12.773 Paul Spencer: and that is, um, it's a mix of things. 00:17:12.773 --> 00:17:14.243 It's a mix of lots of things. 00:17:14.603 --> 00:17:19.493 Um, mostly around the difference between us and China as part of 00:17:20.138 --> 00:17:20.348 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:17:20.813 --> 00:17:21.083 Paul Spencer: Right. 00:17:21.083 --> 00:17:27.893 That be, um, but also because the US has been, um, uh. 00:17:28.628 --> 00:17:33.428 Funding the Navy, the world's Navy, and keeping open channels, trade 00:17:33.428 --> 00:17:35.108 channels, shipping channels open. 00:17:35.378 --> 00:17:37.418 We've had a really long piece time 00:17:37.808 --> 00:17:38.108 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:17:38.168 --> 00:17:42.218 Paul Spencer: it's been easy to ship things from across the world, 00:17:42.218 --> 00:17:44.168 across lots of different countries. 00:17:44.498 --> 00:17:48.998 Make something, uh, make one piece in Asia, another piece in Africa, 00:17:48.998 --> 00:17:52.628 and another piece in Europe, and then assemble it in Mexico. 00:17:53.018 --> 00:17:53.198 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:17:53.318 --> 00:17:55.418 Paul Spencer: the only reason that's possible is because 00:17:55.418 --> 00:17:56.708 the shipping lanes are open. 00:17:56.978 --> 00:17:57.188 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:17:57.338 --> 00:17:59.708 Paul Spencer: And we're seeing that with the Houthis, right? 00:17:59.833 --> 00:18:00.253 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:18:00.878 --> 00:18:04.928 Paul Spencer: disrupting, um, shipping channels and trade channels, right? 00:18:04.958 --> 00:18:07.868 And so now they're having to go around Africa instead of 00:18:07.893 --> 00:18:08.013 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:18:08.863 --> 00:18:09.283 Mm-hmm. 00:18:09.368 --> 00:18:10.478 Paul Spencer: Which increased costs. 00:18:10.543 --> 00:18:10.963 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:18:11.048 --> 00:18:13.058 Paul Spencer: you start to multiply that out in different 00:18:13.058 --> 00:18:15.518 areas and it's very fragile. 00:18:16.488 --> 00:18:17.303 Brandon Giella: It feels that way. 00:18:17.453 --> 00:18:17.753 Yeah. 00:18:17.918 --> 00:18:21.788 Paul Spencer: the supply chain, the global supply chain can unravel fairly quickly, 00:18:22.103 --> 00:18:22.373 Brandon Giella: Yeah, 00:18:22.538 --> 00:18:25.448 Paul Spencer: If you get more of disruptions in the regions. 00:18:25.638 --> 00:18:25.928 Brandon Giella: yeah. 00:18:26.378 --> 00:18:28.868 Paul Spencer: Um, so anyway, there's lots of different things 00:18:28.868 --> 00:18:30.128 like that, that are occurring. 00:18:30.128 --> 00:18:34.298 And the other one too is the US uh, has a debt issue. 00:18:34.298 --> 00:18:34.388 And 00:18:35.243 --> 00:18:35.303 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:18:35.378 --> 00:18:39.728 Paul Spencer: so it's, uh, the idea of subsidizing the world's. 00:18:40.673 --> 00:18:46.133 Military, right, the navy and keeping everything going and funding wars and 00:18:46.133 --> 00:18:50.843 keeping the peace is, uh, running out of, it's running outta runway 'cause it 00:18:50.933 --> 00:18:51.173 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:18:51.593 --> 00:18:52.013 Paul Spencer: anymore. 00:18:52.253 --> 00:18:52.523 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:18:52.523 --> 00:18:57.023 Paul Spencer: so just by cutting that in half or maybe even a quarter, 00:18:57.443 --> 00:18:59.273 jeopardizes different trade routes, 00:18:59.783 --> 00:19:00.053 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:19:00.293 --> 00:19:01.373 Paul Spencer: naval trade routes, o 00:19:01.373 --> 00:19:01.643 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:19:02.423 --> 00:19:02.723 Hmm. 00:19:02.933 --> 00:19:04.823 Paul Spencer: Um, and then that's why we're, that's why we're 00:19:04.823 --> 00:19:06.158 going into more of a regional. 00:19:07.118 --> 00:19:07.388 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:19:08.198 --> 00:19:08.468 Yeah. 00:19:08.513 --> 00:19:11.843 Paul Spencer: anyway, those are things that are imposed inputs. 00:19:12.533 --> 00:19:14.363 Uh, none of us are going to change that. 00:19:15.323 --> 00:19:16.733 those things are occurring. 00:19:16.913 --> 00:19:20.153 And then so again, we have to ask ourselves, how does 00:19:20.153 --> 00:19:21.983 that affect us, if at all? 00:19:22.223 --> 00:19:24.683 Some of us are more insulated to that than others. 00:19:24.983 --> 00:19:25.283 Right. 00:19:25.763 --> 00:19:25.883 Um. 00:19:26.798 --> 00:19:32.708 And, uh, there's no use on getting stuck into the, uh, nitty gritty of 00:19:32.738 --> 00:19:38.078 daily kinda media and whatever's going on with the White House and the, the 00:19:38.078 --> 00:19:41.618 trades are on, trades are off, and the stocks are down, stocks are up. 00:19:41.918 --> 00:19:48.698 None of it is really relevant, um, for the macro side of it. 00:19:48.953 --> 00:19:49.243 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:19:49.248 --> 00:19:49.478 Yeah. 00:19:49.703 --> 00:19:52.913 Paul Spencer: the macro side, these things are moving and it doesn't 00:19:52.913 --> 00:19:57.533 matter who's president or what's going on, these things are going to occur. 00:19:58.053 --> 00:19:58.173 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:19:58.178 --> 00:20:02.018 Paul Spencer: Um, it's just a matter of are they gonna occur more slowly? 00:20:02.168 --> 00:20:05.198 Like we have an opportunity to kinda with it, right? 00:20:05.258 --> 00:20:07.208 Just like what we would say with my customers, right? 00:20:07.478 --> 00:20:08.228 Let's play with that. 00:20:08.228 --> 00:20:08.438 Let's 00:20:08.798 --> 00:20:08.888 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:20:09.098 --> 00:20:12.008 Paul Spencer: with that theory, run A-P-D-S-A and see what happens. 00:20:12.173 --> 00:20:12.533 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:20:13.088 --> 00:20:15.998 Paul Spencer: so we have an opportunity to do that, um, as 00:20:15.998 --> 00:20:18.818 opposed to reaching a critical mass. 00:20:19.748 --> 00:20:25.028 say, sometime less than 10 years, 6, 7, 8 years, um, where it has 00:20:25.028 --> 00:20:27.098 to be more draconian changes. 00:20:27.503 --> 00:20:27.803 Brandon Giella: hmm. 00:20:27.908 --> 00:20:30.398 Paul Spencer: we may get there anyway, but who knows? 00:20:30.578 --> 00:20:35.288 Um, that part, I don't, I'm not really concerned about that as part of this talk. 00:20:35.513 --> 00:20:35.993 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:20:35.993 --> 00:20:36.053 Yeah. 00:20:36.098 --> 00:20:39.638 Paul Spencer: aware that these things are happening, their imposed inputs. 00:20:39.818 --> 00:20:41.528 There's nothing we can do about 'em. 00:20:41.708 --> 00:20:47.168 We can be educated about 'em and wear about 'em, but in the end, the weather, 00:20:48.038 --> 00:20:48.278 Brandon Giella: Hmm 00:20:48.563 --> 00:20:52.133 Paul Spencer: And so we, we run business in Florida, so what, how do 00:20:52.133 --> 00:20:56.903 our processes, how do our businesses work knowing that it's going to rain? 00:20:57.248 --> 00:20:57.548 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:20:58.418 --> 00:21:02.228 So you just put out a lot of ideas out there. 00:21:02.228 --> 00:21:03.638 So I wanna recap really quickly. 00:21:04.388 --> 00:21:08.108 And, and see if I'm, I'm summarizing these accurately because by the 00:21:08.108 --> 00:21:12.698 way, you know, when we talk about macro, uh, topics, especially like 00:21:12.698 --> 00:21:16.298 macroeconomics and things and, and trying to forecast the future, nobody 00:21:16.298 --> 00:21:18.098 knows what the future is gonna hold. 00:21:18.578 --> 00:21:23.528 But there are frameworks and there are big, um, tectonic plates that 00:21:23.528 --> 00:21:27.308 are moving and you can see them and there are likely implications. 00:21:27.398 --> 00:21:29.498 We just don't know exactly how they'll play out. 00:21:29.498 --> 00:21:31.898 But I, but I like the framework that you're putting together 00:21:31.898 --> 00:21:33.098 that's very helpful to understand. 00:21:33.203 --> 00:21:35.903 Paul Spencer: that, Brandon, we got, uh, so one of the things that we've 00:21:35.903 --> 00:21:40.853 talked about before, um, with some of the videos is optimal, right? 00:21:41.123 --> 00:21:41.363 So. 00:21:42.458 --> 00:21:47.288 we look at the way to get to optimal, it's a series of feedback loops, 00:21:47.378 --> 00:21:47.708 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:21:47.938 --> 00:21:48.678 small feedback 00:21:48.698 --> 00:21:49.838 Paul Spencer: loops, right? 00:21:49.988 --> 00:21:54.848 And so even in the best of times when it's sunny out and we're, we're, 00:21:55.148 --> 00:21:59.198 we're doing our business, we al we're always striving to get to optimal. 00:21:59.228 --> 00:22:02.008 And the only way to get to optimal is short feedback loops. 00:22:02.168 --> 00:22:06.338 And we cannot predict what optimal is ever until we get there 00:22:06.338 --> 00:22:08.168 and we say, yeah, good enough. 00:22:08.588 --> 00:22:11.378 Um, but you, you, you have to have the feedback loops. 00:22:11.468 --> 00:22:13.238 Brandon Giella: Until the next feedback loop that tells you it's 00:22:13.238 --> 00:22:14.468 not optimal and you gotta fix it. 00:22:14.888 --> 00:22:15.128 Right. 00:22:15.258 --> 00:22:16.558 Paul Spencer: You're never gonna stop. 00:22:17.328 --> 00:22:19.508 Because everything around us is always shifting. 00:22:19.898 --> 00:22:20.858 Brandon Giella: Right, right, right. 00:22:20.858 --> 00:22:21.308 It's, yeah. 00:22:21.308 --> 00:22:22.958 Nothing, nothing a static. 00:22:23.438 --> 00:22:27.368 So you've got this, you've got these series of, of, um, you know, 00:22:27.368 --> 00:22:29.678 generational shifts that occur. 00:22:30.458 --> 00:22:34.478 If I had to just pick a a point in history, you know, printing press came out 00:22:34.988 --> 00:22:37.958 that four generations later you had the reformation pickup. 00:22:38.048 --> 00:22:42.908 Four generations later you had the um, you know, colonial expansion 00:22:42.908 --> 00:22:44.228 and the age of exploration. 00:22:44.528 --> 00:22:46.838 Four generations later, you had the enlightenment. 00:22:46.868 --> 00:22:49.778 Four generations after that, you had the industrial Revolution. 00:22:50.018 --> 00:22:51.578 Four generations after that, you had World War 00:22:51.938 --> 00:22:54.248 ii, and here we are four generations later. 00:22:54.788 --> 00:22:58.688 With COVID and a lot of, you know, global tensions and, and even, 00:22:58.988 --> 00:23:02.288 uh, local, you know, national tensions and things like that. 00:23:02.468 --> 00:23:02.738 Um, 00:23:03.308 --> 00:23:04.683 so going through this period, 00:23:04.823 --> 00:23:07.793 Paul Spencer: there is the, is uh, the Civil War. 00:23:08.543 --> 00:23:08.833 Brandon Giella: yeah. 00:23:08.833 --> 00:23:09.153 Right. 00:23:09.173 --> 00:23:10.073 Paul Spencer: and then Civil War. 00:23:10.263 --> 00:23:11.113 Brandon Giella: Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:23:11.113 --> 00:23:11.793 Right, right. 00:23:11.843 --> 00:23:13.073 Paul Spencer: is very fascinating to me. 00:23:13.103 --> 00:23:17.303 'cause, uh, the fourth turning book, the Neil Howe book, again, 00:23:17.303 --> 00:23:19.823 is just a theory he lays it out. 00:23:19.823 --> 00:23:25.763 But, um, unless you're in that kind of crisis period, which according 00:23:25.763 --> 00:23:27.353 to his theory, we are in that 00:23:27.743 --> 00:23:28.043 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:23:28.253 --> 00:23:31.103 Paul Spencer: and you're actually living it, it's really hard to be able to say. 00:23:32.078 --> 00:23:32.978 that's true or not, 00:23:33.293 --> 00:23:33.563 Brandon Giella: Hmm, 00:23:33.953 --> 00:23:34.313 Hmm. 00:23:34.853 --> 00:23:35.183 Hmm. 00:23:35.258 --> 00:23:39.038 Paul Spencer: they line up and, and it's history, um, but when it's 00:23:39.038 --> 00:23:41.738 actually, when you're observing it in real time, it's very, I don't know. 00:23:41.738 --> 00:23:43.028 To me it's very fascinating. 00:23:43.233 --> 00:23:43.868 Brandon Giella: Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:23:43.928 --> 00:23:46.898 'cause four generations before the printing press was the black plague in 00:23:46.898 --> 00:23:49.868 the fall of Constantinople, and then four generations before that was the 00:23:49.868 --> 00:23:52.118 ending of the medieval, you know, period. 00:23:52.118 --> 00:23:53.258 And moving into a new era. 00:23:53.258 --> 00:23:56.018 I mean now, now of course this is just in the West, you know, 00:23:56.018 --> 00:23:57.608 and I'm sure every region 00:23:57.878 --> 00:23:57.998 just. 00:23:58.898 --> 00:24:02.768 Just has, you know, they, they have their four turnings as well. 00:24:02.768 --> 00:24:06.818 But I love the idea that, that there are these kind of moments in history 00:24:06.818 --> 00:24:09.968 that you can track and build a story out of that does make seem to make sense. 00:24:10.508 --> 00:24:15.488 So given all of that, the era that we're in now is you have these two big shifts 00:24:15.548 --> 00:24:21.818 of, um, demographic shifts that a lot of the, uh, of their, um, replacement 00:24:21.818 --> 00:24:26.774 rate or population growth rate is not quite keeping up, um, with the, the. 00:24:27.983 --> 00:24:31.553 Uh, yeah, with the replacement rate, with death, death to birth ratio. 00:24:32.513 --> 00:24:37.553 And then you've also got this, what, what was a global economy, global trade 00:24:37.553 --> 00:24:41.003 and offshoring and NAFTA and all these, you know, kind of things like this 00:24:41.183 --> 00:24:41.813 Paul Spencer: integrated. 00:24:42.143 --> 00:24:43.133 Brandon Giella: now. 00:24:43.283 --> 00:24:45.623 Paul Spencer: Highly integrated meaning factories. 00:24:45.623 --> 00:24:47.933 Were just building one tiny chip. 00:24:48.293 --> 00:24:48.683 Brandon Giella: Right. 00:24:49.313 --> 00:24:53.393 Paul Spencer: Then other factories are just building the, the casing, right? 00:24:53.573 --> 00:24:57.443 Other factories are building the wifi and they're going all, all those raw 00:24:57.443 --> 00:25:01.133 materials are going all over the world to be able, all different places, 00:25:01.133 --> 00:25:02.573 to build those different components. 00:25:02.873 --> 00:25:05.753 They're all being shipped into one place to be assembled. 00:25:06.068 --> 00:25:06.398 Brandon Giella: Yep. 00:25:06.608 --> 00:25:09.308 Paul Spencer: it's fascinating the way that, I mean, we've been 00:25:09.308 --> 00:25:09.598 Brandon Giella: Okay. 00:25:09.608 --> 00:25:09.848 Paul Spencer: that, 00:25:10.613 --> 00:25:10.883 Brandon Giella: Yep. 00:25:11.048 --> 00:25:14.858 Paul Spencer: and it's very unique because we've never experienced that in the world. 00:25:14.888 --> 00:25:15.188 Right. 00:25:15.218 --> 00:25:18.548 We've never had enough peace to be able to, right. 00:25:18.548 --> 00:25:22.928 You might say maybe the, the, what's the, the silk, uh, road, 00:25:23.153 --> 00:25:23.783 Brandon Giella: The Silk Road. 00:25:23.783 --> 00:25:24.083 Yeah. 00:25:24.083 --> 00:25:24.143 Yeah. 00:25:24.668 --> 00:25:25.658 Paul Spencer: Like those kinds of things, 00:25:25.883 --> 00:25:26.093 Brandon Giella: W 00:25:26.348 --> 00:25:26.948 Paul Spencer: yeah, it's pretty 00:25:27.143 --> 00:25:29.543 Brandon Giella: well, the, the height of that was, you know, Milton 00:25:29.543 --> 00:25:31.703 Friedman in the eighties and nineties. 00:25:31.703 --> 00:25:35.273 With that, this kind of free trade and, and a lot of, uh, which I'm 00:25:35.273 --> 00:25:37.583 a fan of, of Friedman, I think he had a lot of great things to say. 00:25:37.943 --> 00:25:41.093 Um, but then four generations before that you had Henry Ford 00:25:41.093 --> 00:25:44.663 where everything was a, you know, complete, uh, integrated supply chain. 00:25:44.663 --> 00:25:47.123 He built, you know, a giant Red River factory in, in 00:25:47.123 --> 00:25:48.323 Michigan to, to do all that. 00:25:48.323 --> 00:25:50.453 So, yeah, it's, it's, it's funny how those things kind of turn out. 00:25:50.558 --> 00:25:55.328 Paul Spencer: my theory, my theory, and this is again, uh, the reason 00:25:55.328 --> 00:25:59.258 why we even started this podcast and the whole newsletter, I. 00:26:00.098 --> 00:26:03.698 that in 23 was around these things. 00:26:03.758 --> 00:26:04.238 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:26:04.358 --> 00:26:04.718 Yeah, 00:26:05.468 --> 00:26:09.788 Paul Spencer: but my theory is that things are gonna become more and more localized. 00:26:10.088 --> 00:26:10.328 Right. 00:26:10.328 --> 00:26:11.948 Just like what you said with Henry Ford. 00:26:11.948 --> 00:26:12.068 We're 00:26:12.188 --> 00:26:12.458 Brandon Giella: yeah. 00:26:12.548 --> 00:26:17.468 Paul Spencer: gonna realize that, the uncertainty is too great. 00:26:17.738 --> 00:26:18.188 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:26:18.623 --> 00:26:22.913 Paul Spencer: from a cost perspective or maybe even from a risk perspective. 00:26:22.973 --> 00:26:26.273 And so we're gonna start to, we're gonna start to condense, right? 00:26:26.273 --> 00:26:28.013 Which is that that imposed input 00:26:28.163 --> 00:26:28.553 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:26:28.883 --> 00:26:31.283 Paul Spencer: to regional and things will get closer. 00:26:31.828 --> 00:26:31.908 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:26:31.973 --> 00:26:36.833 Paul Spencer: we'll, the sourcing of materials how we build things and where 00:26:36.833 --> 00:26:38.903 we buy things will be become closer. 00:26:40.073 --> 00:26:43.133 We'll see if that plays out, but that's, that's the way things are moving. 00:26:43.643 --> 00:26:47.843 Brandon Giella: So if this theory is true, which there's a lot of evidence to 00:26:47.843 --> 00:26:50.093 say that it is, what do we do about it? 00:26:50.453 --> 00:26:52.973 You know, I mean, where do we go from here? 00:26:52.973 --> 00:26:55.373 And I, we're running out time, I feel like, but, 00:26:55.673 --> 00:26:58.043 but there's a but, but you've got, in this article, you've 00:26:58.043 --> 00:26:59.633 got some steps that we can take. 00:26:59.633 --> 00:27:02.603 So, so I want to, yeah, I wanna hear your thoughts on, on where we can go. 00:27:02.783 --> 00:27:04.823 Paul Spencer: to be clear, we're not gonna do anything about it. 00:27:05.783 --> 00:27:05.993 It, 00:27:06.083 --> 00:27:06.443 Brandon Giella: Oh yeah. 00:27:06.443 --> 00:27:06.803 Fair. 00:27:06.833 --> 00:27:07.133 Right? 00:27:07.133 --> 00:27:07.433 Yes. 00:27:07.433 --> 00:27:07.703 Right. 00:27:07.763 --> 00:27:09.443 Paul Spencer: is coming and that's just the way the 00:27:09.638 --> 00:27:10.448 Brandon Giella: Yes, yes, yes. 00:27:10.628 --> 00:27:15.578 But I, but, but you can take an active approach to that tidal wave that's coming. 00:27:15.578 --> 00:27:18.848 You can get a, a, an umbrella of, of some, yeah. 00:27:19.313 --> 00:27:23.153 Paul Spencer: and, and I think this is also important too, just to keep in mind, 00:27:23.153 --> 00:27:29.243 is this is also from Neil Howe's book, um, which he, he kind of just points out 00:27:29.243 --> 00:27:33.443 that, you know, most people are thinking about everything that we're talking 00:27:33.443 --> 00:27:36.503 about from the lens of political sides. 00:27:36.608 --> 00:27:36.968 Brandon Giella: Yes. 00:27:36.968 --> 00:27:36.969 Right. 00:27:37.043 --> 00:27:38.693 Paul Spencer: Whether is blue, right? 00:27:38.903 --> 00:27:39.143 Right. 00:27:39.143 --> 00:27:41.603 Are the Democrats right, or are the Republicans right? 00:27:41.668 --> 00:27:42.028 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:27:42.353 --> 00:27:43.763 Paul Spencer: is Biden right? 00:27:43.763 --> 00:27:45.203 Or is is Trump? 00:27:45.203 --> 00:27:45.563 Right? 00:27:45.683 --> 00:27:46.013 Right. 00:27:46.013 --> 00:27:49.853 And and what he says is, that's the, that's the wrong 00:27:50.553 --> 00:27:57.413 question The, the, the most important question that he talks about is, are we 00:27:57.533 --> 00:28:02.183 prepared as Americans, right, to deal with, and he use this word, the trauma. 00:28:03.053 --> 00:28:03.443 Right. 00:28:03.923 --> 00:28:09.293 To be able to go through, uh, an era that will collapse. 00:28:09.293 --> 00:28:09.443 He 00:28:09.518 --> 00:28:09.878 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:28:11.023 --> 00:28:13.853 Paul Spencer: This 80 year generational pattern that will 00:28:13.853 --> 00:28:16.973 collapse and another one will emerge. 00:28:17.003 --> 00:28:17.483 Kind of to your 00:28:17.583 --> 00:28:17.663 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:28:17.783 --> 00:28:20.683 Paul Spencer: is we don't know even know what that's going to be, but 00:28:20.683 --> 00:28:25.163 the time that crisis, at least using his words right, that crisis period 00:28:25.163 --> 00:28:27.953 is traumatic and it collapses. 00:28:28.808 --> 00:28:28.898 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:28:29.258 --> 00:28:35.528 Paul Spencer: So I think that is, that is something to be aware of that, um, of 00:28:35.528 --> 00:28:37.748 thinking about how could I change this? 00:28:37.928 --> 00:28:39.908 Or maybe who do I vote for? 00:28:39.908 --> 00:28:43.028 I mean, you can still do those things, but these things are regardless. 00:28:43.028 --> 00:28:44.288 This thing is going to happen. 00:28:44.648 --> 00:28:44.858 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:28:45.098 --> 00:28:47.918 Paul Spencer: So how do we build a resilient business? 00:28:48.068 --> 00:28:48.368 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:28:48.518 --> 00:28:51.188 Paul Spencer: And all of that is just based on risk management. 00:28:51.638 --> 00:28:51.878 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:28:52.118 --> 00:28:57.428 Paul Spencer: And thinking about, um, how do you, uh, how do you analyze. 00:28:58.268 --> 00:29:01.988 Your customers, which ones are at risk? 00:29:02.348 --> 00:29:03.398 Which ones aren't? 00:29:03.578 --> 00:29:05.588 Which ones should we double down on? 00:29:05.768 --> 00:29:09.608 Which areas of the industry should we go after next? 00:29:10.058 --> 00:29:12.698 Um, because we feel we're predicting, right? 00:29:12.698 --> 00:29:17.828 We have a theory that they are more secure or less risk given all 00:29:17.828 --> 00:29:19.598 the inputs that we have, right? 00:29:19.988 --> 00:29:21.878 So the input being that rain. 00:29:22.733 --> 00:29:26.333 Where can we go that we can, we can have, we can build more, we can do 00:29:26.333 --> 00:29:27.623 the things that we wanna do and not 00:29:27.803 --> 00:29:29.153 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:29:29.154 --> 00:29:29.155 Mm-hmm. 00:29:29.303 --> 00:29:32.813 Paul Spencer: can we go, where we don't have the, uh, the, 00:29:32.963 --> 00:29:34.463 the trade issues or where 00:29:34.463 --> 00:29:34.883 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:29:34.943 --> 00:29:39.413 Paul Spencer: that the demographics aren't as, as, um, risky, right? 00:29:39.413 --> 00:29:40.373 Or as impactful. 00:29:40.883 --> 00:29:43.343 Um, and maybe there's not anything you can do about that. 00:29:43.343 --> 00:29:46.913 So you just do better, better, for worse, right? 00:29:47.528 --> 00:29:47.588 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:29:47.753 --> 00:29:48.053 Paul Spencer: of things. 00:29:48.053 --> 00:29:51.593 So you're thinking about risk management, um, you're wanting to 00:29:51.593 --> 00:29:53.873 kind of play those scenarios out. 00:29:53.933 --> 00:29:57.593 And most people that I work with know that I like to do the rehearsals, 00:29:57.863 --> 00:29:58.133 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:29:58.223 --> 00:30:01.013 Paul Spencer: So we rehearse those scenarios and we say, all right, 00:30:01.433 --> 00:30:04.973 we get, uh, different departments in the room and we say, all right, 00:30:05.813 --> 00:30:07.973 customer X is no longer with us. 00:30:08.243 --> 00:30:08.513 Right? 00:30:09.323 --> 00:30:09.743 do we do? 00:30:10.493 --> 00:30:10.673 Brandon Giella: Hmm, 00:30:10.793 --> 00:30:11.873 Paul Spencer: it and we play it out, and 00:30:12.053 --> 00:30:12.323 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:30:12.353 --> 00:30:14.033 Paul Spencer: just kind of mock it up, right? 00:30:14.063 --> 00:30:14.333 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:30:14.753 --> 00:30:17.813 Paul Spencer: And what that does is that gives us a se that's a short 00:30:17.813 --> 00:30:21.623 feedback loop that we can do in a half day or a two hour or one hour. 00:30:21.833 --> 00:30:26.153 And what it does is it gives us some learnings about gaps in our processes, 00:30:26.213 --> 00:30:31.973 gaps in our understanding, and maybe some, assumptions that we make about 00:30:31.973 --> 00:30:34.403 our own business that are incorrect. 00:30:34.913 --> 00:30:35.123 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:30:35.903 --> 00:30:36.143 Okay. 00:30:36.173 --> 00:30:38.183 Paul Spencer: those do is that gives us a, an opportunity 00:30:38.183 --> 00:30:40.163 to say, oh, maybe we should. 00:30:41.003 --> 00:30:41.423 that up. 00:30:41.498 --> 00:30:41.918 Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm. 00:30:42.083 --> 00:30:43.313 Paul Spencer: improve that system. 00:30:43.553 --> 00:30:47.063 Maybe we should, uh, think a little differently about our customer base. 00:30:47.213 --> 00:30:51.503 Maybe we should go talk to our customers because we're assuming this, but we're 00:30:51.503 --> 00:30:53.243 actually not sure that that's correct. 00:30:53.633 --> 00:30:54.713 Let's go ask them. 00:30:54.953 --> 00:30:55.223 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:30:56.208 --> 00:30:56.328 Hmm. 00:30:56.603 --> 00:30:58.223 Paul Spencer: which is all okay to do, right? 00:30:58.283 --> 00:31:00.773 And then as we go through that, we're thinking about, 00:31:01.793 --> 00:31:03.383 our systems, our processes. 00:31:04.133 --> 00:31:05.003 iterate, right? 00:31:05.063 --> 00:31:09.083 We run PDSAs and we're doing this always, all the time anyway. 00:31:09.593 --> 00:31:09.683 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:31:09.743 --> 00:31:11.003 Paul Spencer: how our business should run. 00:31:11.333 --> 00:31:15.953 Uh, this is taking it at a, at a more strategic level and it's saying 00:31:16.283 --> 00:31:20.903 let's run a risk management process, which is just what I just described. 00:31:21.053 --> 00:31:23.783 And we're constantly thinking about where are risks. 00:31:23.963 --> 00:31:27.173 We prioritize those risks, and then we, then we run scenarios. 00:31:27.473 --> 00:31:27.743 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:31:28.223 --> 00:31:28.643 Okay. 00:31:28.883 --> 00:31:29.273 Okay. 00:31:29.933 --> 00:31:32.693 Uh, I have so much more to say. 00:31:33.923 --> 00:31:34.283 Okay. 00:31:34.343 --> 00:31:38.903 Um, so the way that you phrase this is vulnerability landscape. 00:31:39.203 --> 00:31:44.663 Future scenarios, mapping those out, designing resilience systems around that 00:31:45.083 --> 00:31:49.853 testing, uh, through small experience, uh, uh, experiments, 00:31:50.183 --> 00:31:51.893 PDSA loops, things like that. 00:31:52.523 --> 00:31:54.773 And then finding that balance to achieve optimal. 00:31:54.773 --> 00:31:58.253 So those are the kind of steps that you take to see these inputs come in 00:31:58.253 --> 00:31:59.543 this tidal wave that's coming at you. 00:31:59.828 --> 00:32:00.278 Paul Spencer: Exactly. 00:32:00.278 --> 00:32:04.208 And then as an owner, or I mean even as an executive leader, you 00:32:04.208 --> 00:32:07.178 can put a team together, which doesn't have to be executives, it 00:32:07.178 --> 00:32:08.888 can be anybody in your organization 00:32:08.963 --> 00:32:09.263 Brandon Giella: Hmm 00:32:09.368 --> 00:32:15.158 Paul Spencer: has different perspectives, um, different, um, seniority, meaning, uh, 00:32:15.158 --> 00:32:18.338 somebody who's new to the company versus somebody who's been there for 30 years. 00:32:18.443 --> 00:32:18.593 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:32:18.698 --> 00:32:21.548 Paul Spencer: And you, you put a team of three or four together, you. 00:32:22.223 --> 00:32:25.853 Have 'em listen to this podcast and you say, figure some things out, 00:32:26.063 --> 00:32:26.423 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:32:26.483 --> 00:32:27.143 Yeah, yeah. 00:32:27.143 --> 00:32:27.203 Yeah. 00:32:27.263 --> 00:32:30.773 Paul Spencer: uh, let's get back next week and, um, run some scenarios, 00:32:30.998 --> 00:32:31.268 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:32:31.508 --> 00:32:31.748 Yep. 00:32:31.838 --> 00:32:32.078 Yep. 00:32:32.258 --> 00:32:32.618 Cool. 00:32:32.768 --> 00:32:33.068 Yeah, 00:32:33.293 --> 00:32:37.373 Paul Spencer: is the, this here, this is, I think this is, um, um, the main 00:32:37.373 --> 00:32:41.183 thing of all this and thinking about the soda industry and losing their 00:32:41.183 --> 00:32:46.913 snap account and all of that, um, is just insight into us that, uh, we don't 00:32:46.913 --> 00:32:50.003 have to panic there are no guarantees, 00:32:50.318 --> 00:32:50.738 Brandon Giella: sure. 00:32:50.738 --> 00:32:51.098 Sure. 00:32:51.188 --> 00:32:56.018 Paul Spencer: guarantees, but if we are methodical and we are, 00:32:56.078 --> 00:33:03.968 um, mature in how we run our business, um, we can handle a lot, 00:33:04.208 --> 00:33:04.498 Brandon Giella: Yeah, 00:33:05.428 --> 00:33:05.718 yeah, 00:33:05.858 --> 00:33:09.758 Paul Spencer: of, um, inputs and a lot of transition, 00:33:10.403 --> 00:33:10.463 Brandon Giella: yeah. 00:33:10.478 --> 00:33:12.248 Paul Spencer: and we'll come out the other side stronger. 00:33:12.713 --> 00:33:15.803 Brandon Giella: If I could summarize it in one word, it would be, uh, systematic, 00:33:16.043 --> 00:33:19.888 you know, think systemically about your business and the world that you're in. 00:33:21.038 --> 00:33:25.538 And that alone will start to make your business more resilient to 00:33:25.538 --> 00:33:27.038 face these, these challenges. 00:33:27.548 --> 00:33:27.668 Yeah. 00:33:27.878 --> 00:33:30.938 Paul Spencer: and it to I'll translate that was, if I'm 00:33:30.938 --> 00:33:36.248 systematic in my thinking, that means that I've developed a process 00:33:36.573 --> 00:33:36.693 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:33:36.848 --> 00:33:42.068 Paul Spencer: runs every quarter where I have the four people my risk 00:33:42.068 --> 00:33:44.618 management team, and they have a clear. 00:33:45.758 --> 00:33:49.538 transparent risk management process that we've developed together and 00:33:49.613 --> 00:33:49.823 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:33:50.513 --> 00:33:50.783 Hmm, 00:33:51.008 --> 00:33:51.938 Paul Spencer: That is systematic. 00:33:51.938 --> 00:33:53.078 That's systematic thinking. 00:33:53.483 --> 00:33:54.593 Brandon Giella: Hmm hmm. 00:33:54.623 --> 00:33:54.653 Okay. 00:33:55.178 --> 00:33:59.228 Paul Spencer: And it's, and I have confidence as the owner that, uh, when, 00:33:59.258 --> 00:34:03.758 when something like this is happening and I'm getting this, uh, tariff update. 00:34:04.808 --> 00:34:07.538 I know that I have a process that's running that's 00:34:07.538 --> 00:34:09.038 thinking about these things. 00:34:09.098 --> 00:34:13.838 And if I have a question, I go ask the team or I may even be on the team, right? 00:34:13.898 --> 00:34:16.148 And I can go say, have you thought about this? 00:34:16.148 --> 00:34:18.038 And they say, yeah, we thought about that 00:34:18.333 --> 00:34:18.503 Brandon Giella: Yeah. 00:34:18.548 --> 00:34:20.048 Paul Spencer: is the, this is what we arrived to, 00:34:20.483 --> 00:34:20.723 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:34:21.098 --> 00:34:21.848 Paul Spencer: No we haven't. 00:34:21.968 --> 00:34:23.558 We'll put that in our process 00:34:23.903 --> 00:34:24.143 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:34:24.278 --> 00:34:25.538 Paul Spencer: run it next meeting. 00:34:25.838 --> 00:34:26.108 Brandon Giella: Hmm. 00:34:26.108 --> 00:34:27.128 Paul Spencer: I'm like, good thanks. 00:34:27.458 --> 00:34:27.758 Right? 00:34:27.788 --> 00:34:30.188 And that's calm, peace of mind 00:34:30.278 --> 00:34:30.818 Brandon Giella: Calm. 00:34:31.118 --> 00:34:32.768 Paul Spencer: running the business. 00:34:33.218 --> 00:34:33.788 Brandon Giella: Calm. 00:34:33.848 --> 00:34:35.678 Can you imagine running a calm business? 00:34:36.098 --> 00:34:37.088 That sounds wonderful. 00:34:37.238 --> 00:34:40.478 Paul Spencer: owners hear the noise and then they tamper. 00:34:40.688 --> 00:34:41.078 Right? 00:34:41.153 --> 00:34:41.233 Brandon Giella: Hmm, 00:34:41.498 --> 00:34:43.088 Paul Spencer: then they say, go work on this. 00:34:43.493 --> 00:34:43.613 Brandon Giella: hmm 00:34:43.838 --> 00:34:45.308 Paul Spencer: but there's no process in place. 00:34:45.308 --> 00:34:45.608 And now 00:34:45.813 --> 00:34:45.933 Brandon Giella: hmm. 00:34:46.118 --> 00:34:47.918 Paul Spencer: scrambling, they're doing all kinds of stuff, and it 00:34:47.918 --> 00:34:49.598 doesn't, that doesn't mean anything. 00:34:49.868 --> 00:34:51.428 That doesn't have a lasting effect. 00:34:51.848 --> 00:34:52.628 Brandon Giella: That resonates. 00:34:52.778 --> 00:34:54.518 Paul Spencer: That's a traditional business, by the way. 00:34:55.568 --> 00:35:00.818 Brandon Giella: That is very helpful to think about the 00:35:00.818 --> 00:35:04.073 systematic processes, but I, I hope. 00:35:04.673 --> 00:35:08.453 That listeners were taking notes because there was a lot of big, um, 00:35:08.483 --> 00:35:12.533 ideas, but also getting more concrete into the systematic processes. 00:35:12.953 --> 00:35:16.373 Um, but what I wanna do is I wanna, I wanna try to recap this article in 00:35:16.373 --> 00:35:19.913 a newsletter, you know, and we can send that out, um, to the community. 00:35:20.213 --> 00:35:23.873 So if you're listening to this, please go to Second Nature, do Solutions 00:35:24.293 --> 00:35:26.498 and sign up for our newsletter. 00:35:27.368 --> 00:35:32.198 And you'll receive a seven day, uh, kind of onboarding experience working 00:35:32.198 --> 00:35:36.068 through the main, uh, foundational principles of second Nature. 00:35:36.428 --> 00:35:39.668 Um, and as part of that, you'll receive, uh, newsletters as, 00:35:39.698 --> 00:35:41.378 as the, the show comes out. 00:35:41.708 --> 00:35:45.188 And so I, I would like to put this article that you wrote, you know, partially 00:35:45.188 --> 00:35:46.748 in that newsletter for the community. 00:35:46.748 --> 00:35:49.868 So please go sign up as always, like, and subscribe. 00:35:50.378 --> 00:35:53.018 And, uh, Paul, we will see you next time. 00:35:53.048 --> 00:35:55.268 Thank you so much for your insight and wisdom as always. 00:35:55.573 --> 00:35:56.893 Paul Spencer: Yeah, so much fun. 00:35:57.868 --> 00:35:58.373 Brandon Giella: I see you. 00:35:58.783 --> 00:35:58.993 Paul Spencer: Bye.