Welcome to Resilience Talk hosted by Paul Spencer of Second Nature Solutions.
Let's dive in.
Brandon Giella: Hello and welcome back to another episode
of the Resilient Talk podcast.
We have not had an episode in quite a while.
We've taken a, taken a little bit of a break, but I am so glad that we're
back, Paul, because your work in building resilient businesses arguably
has never been more important than right now because we are experiencing.
What you're calling an age of transition.
We are going from one era to another, and in between those two eras is a lot
of uncertainty and I think something that is very pointed, a particular within
that universal is the tariff situation where it's causing a lot of uncertainty.
But as you, you had mentioned, uh, when we were talking, uh, before recording
the episode that um, the tariff situation is a strategy against a backdrop of
these macro forces that are affecting.
Businesses, economies, immigration, geopolitical tensions.
There's so much even, uh, you know, technological changes.
The way that companies are adopting ai, the way that they're
building their supply chains.
There's just so much going on because of these giant macro
forces that we're gonna get into.
And so you have written an article about this age of transition to help businesses.
Become more resilient to handle these uncertainties.
And so I want to hear from you what started this article, what, what
gave rise to you sitting down pen and paper and thinking about these things.
Um, and then we'll get into some of the things that you, you mentioned in
this that, especially these two big shifts that are occurring right now.
So what, what started you talking about this?
Paul Spencer: Yeah.
Um, well I saw a clip um, RFK Junior, I think it was in a cabinet meeting, and
he was talking about the SNAP program.
then he used the, the phrase, the soda industry is knocking on my door.
and uh, the gist of it is, is that he wants to change the SNAP program
to be more nutritious, right?
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: of, of food for, for students.
Um, and what I gathered through from the clip is that the, the soda
industry is making an argument that, well, nutrition's not part of it,
it's just part of a food program.
And, and then he made the quip that, well, it's called the Student
Nutrition Assistance Program.
and kinda made me chuck a little bit because you can, you can
see in the back room that, uh.
the soda industry is saying, geez, we got this huge account,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: It's seamless.
There's hardly any friction here.
It just renews over and over and over again.
It's through the entire United States.
Um, it's just good money, right?
And now we're getting something that's happening jeopardizing
this, this big account.
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: so this happens a lot.
our businesses where, uh, something changes or something shifts either
within our market or maybe even the macro side of things, um, are shifting.
And now some of our well-known primary customers are coming back to us and, and
they're saying, Hey, can we cut costs?
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: bit more, Hey, can we, uh, can we pause?
Right?
Can we do some of those things?
And you're saying, geez, these are, these are.
Our top five customers, um, if we lose them, right?
You, you kind of hit the panic button and you say, if we lose them, just like the
soda industry, if we lose this account.
What's that gonna do for us?
Right.
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: and so what comes to mind just in that example is, uh, we are
in this, this age of transition and this one's pretty specific and it's
more of a, a government shift rather than maybe a, a macro shift where the
government at a stroke of a pen can
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: and say, we're gonna do this and not do that.
And everybody kind of whipsaw with that.
Um, and that's the risk of having.
Government accounts.
Right.
Brandon Giella: Yep.
Paul Spencer: but we also have this reality where things are in
transition like you described.
With the tariffs and with trade and with everything else.
Um, and so when we know that we have our top five meaning customers,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: um, hopefully we have a diverse client list, right?
We don't have one customer or two, we have at least five or,
Brandon Giella: Hopefully yes.
Paul Spencer: but we, we likely have every, the audiences
listening to this are mature.
Companies have been around for 30, 50 years, right?
So you have a good client base.
Um, and part of that risk management is making sure that you have a
diversified client base, right?
But we also know that our top five customers provide a
good chunk of our, our annual
Brandon Giella: Yep.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: maybe even more than that.
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: Um, which is okay.
Um.
That provides an opportunity, sometimes it provides some vulnerability we just
need to be able to ask ourselves, again using this, this RFK junior example
that if something changes within our top five, and let's just say we lose
one of our top five, they're just gone For whatever reason, A resilient
business tends to say, not ideal.
You know, I, I, I don't, I wouldn't wish that to happen.
I don't want it to happen.
Um, and it's gonna push up against different aspects of our business, right?
but in the end, it's not the end of our end of the world
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: Um, and we'll be able to adjust and we'll likely just be able to
recoup everything at, at a point in time.
And the reason why we're able to say that is not because we put our head in the
sand and we're just ignoring the problem.
uh, we're just.
Being naive about it, it's because we have a resilient business.
And a resilient business means that I have confidence.
It's been demonstrated that I have a system on the sales
side, that it's an engine,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Hmm.
Paul Spencer: And I have confidence that yeah, we lose, we lose a big account,
but that engine is still running
Brandon Giella: and I know
Paul Spencer: that it can produce,
That is a sign of resiliency regardless of what's what's happening around us, right?
And then I also know that within my delivery side, my delivery
engine is also running very well.
And when something happens, with a customer or some kind of other
imposed input, I know that they're also capable of adjusting and, uh,
switching things out and pivoting, and then we'll, we'll be fine.
Right?
Again, it's not gonna be easy, it's not gonna be painless.
Um, but we can get through it.
Right, as opposed to somebody who is in a, what I would call a traditional
business who's not really thinking about these things and just kind of goes
about their business, this would absorb.
All of the oxygen
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: room for their entire business, for the next, I don't
know, year and a half, right?
And it may, may throw them so far off course that it may
jeopardize the business itself,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: can't think, they can't sleep, they can't do anything else.
But, but try to consider why did we lose that account?
How do we get that account back?
Right?
All those things.
And they, they can't, um, recover, uh, because they
don't have resilience systems.
Brandon Giella: You're saying?
Yeah, that's a sys, that's a business without a system is one
that is gonna be, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Paul Spencer: that's more ad hoc.
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: uh, and every business has a process or a system, but,
uh, a lot of times it's invisible.
and it's not transparent,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: right?
And nobody can look at it because it's in Paul's head.
and when it comes down to it, um.
Paul's head cannot run the business when,
Brandon Giella: right.
Paul Spencer: when things are shifting.
Right.
When you're
Brandon Giella: That's right.
Paul Spencer: of transition.
Brandon Giella: That's right, that's right.
You used a phrase, you called, uh, imposed input.
Can you.
Define that or, or describe that and then talk about these two major imposed inputs
that you see businesses facing now, but especially in the next five years or so.
Paul Spencer: Yeah, sure.
So imposed inputs, uh, is something that I learned from, from, uh, from
Deming and system of profound knowledge.
So when we're, when we're mapping out or processes and we're
being aware of those, um, I.
You have inputs into your system, right?
So if we're building furniture, right, you have lumber, you have hardware,
like the screws and the, the, the metal pieces that are coming in, right?
The, the knobs, right?
Those are all inputs.
And you get to choose those.
You get to choose what type of wood, right?
Which type of material.
Um, an imposed input is something that you don't have any, you,
you can't opt out of, right?
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: non-negotiable, right?
Um, and so that could be things like.
economy.
You might be in a recession, might have the, the ash bore bug, right?
Who goes through and eats up all the ash trees and now
Brandon Giella: Yes.
Yes, yes.
Paul Spencer: ash trees anymore.
Right?
Or the cost of ash trees are through the roof and now
Brandon Giella: Yep.
Paul Spencer: use different wood, even though that's not our preferred wood
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: there's nothing you can do about that.
Brandon Giella: Yep.
Yep.
Paul Spencer: so an imposed input is, is just.
We live in that always.
And it's important to, to map that out.
Sometimes, um, some business leaders think it's, it's a little too, um,
much into the weeds to think about what those are and actually write them down.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: Um, but when we have core processes, systems in our
business, it is helpful to understand the difference between what's chosen.
Meaning what are the things that we have control over and what
are the ones that are imposed?
And when we have a clear understanding of what's imposed, I mean, you, Brandon,
you and I may, may say that's imposed.
And then as we talk about it, we agree that hmm, we actually have
more control of that than we thought.
And And we move it up
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: into a chosen.
And what that does is that changes how our process actually works.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: Right.
And so if we wanna do process improvement or we wanna be resilient
and we can't change, uh, the ash tree
uh, then we may update or change our processes to be able to handle different
types of wood materials, right?
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: that is, that is a resilient business.
It's really difficult to be able to handle that if you don't have eyes on site,
An awareness on what your imposed inputs are.
Brandon Giella: Interesting.
Okay.
So things you can control and things you can't control and the things you can't
control are inputs that are imposed.
You have to deal with them as they are.
They are.
This is the facts of the case.
You can't get out of it.
That's what it is.
Okay.
Paul Spencer: some imposed inputs, uh, be over time moved to, to, to chosen.
Brandon Giella: Okay.
I that's helpful.
Okay.
I like that.
Paul Spencer: So, um, uh, let's take weather.
Right.
Let's say we're a home builder,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: home builder, and uh, and we're, uh, let's say in Florida
and it rains a lot and it's hard to build quality houses the way we like
to build them because it rains a lot.
Well, uh, we can't change the weather, but maybe we say we're
not gonna do business in Florida, we're gonna do it in, uh, Phoenix,
Brandon Giella: Which is happening, by the way.
Insurers are saying that, they're like, Hey, we, we're not gonna
insure your property in, in Florida or California, or whatever.
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: what you're doing is you're, you're, you are adjusting,
you're, instead of just dealing with it,
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: you're adjusting it and making it a, a chosen input,
Brandon Giella: I like that.
Paul Spencer: your business model because of some of the input imposed inputs,
which essentially are constraints right
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: around your business.
Another, another example is the government.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: may have a regulation, may have some way of doing something,
and then you may lobby your congress person right about this as a small
business and they may help you change a law or get a law passed, which helps
or get rid of a regulation or add a regulation which helps the business
environment and move an imposed input up
Brandon Giella: Hmm
Paul Spencer: chosen.
So those are
Brandon Giella: hmm.
That's really helpful.
Okay, but you've got two big ones that you referenced in the article and, and
are kind of guiding your thinking now in this next era that we're entering into.
So talk to me about these, these two I, I don't wanna give, give 'em away.
So tell me what the two major, um, shifts or, or imposed inputs in this
coming era that we're facing now.
Paul Spencer: Yeah.
So we're in this, uh, so if you think about, uh, if everybody's heard
of Neil Howell and, uh, the fourth turning, recommend you read that book.
It's a.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: It's a thick book.
I think it's very interesting.
So it's a quick read for me, uh, but uh, maybe you could listen to it twice.
Speed on audio if you're
Brandon Giella: Okay.
Yeah, I'll write down the audible one.
Paul Spencer: Uh, anyway, so he's got, uh, it's a very.
I think it's super interesting to think about the generations, uh, and the
four generations and how they turn.
Um, and so we're in that fourth generation, which in, in his model,
which I think is actually proving itself out, even today we're
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: is that when you, when you experience that fourth generation,
which is four generations living when they're all living together, right?
They're all alive at the same time, um, and coming of age at the same time.
Is that on that fourth one is when you have more of a environment,
Brandon Giella: Hmm, Hmm.
Paul Spencer: more of a crisis
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: all the things that were built prior generations as
far as, uh, maybe the government.
Or the institutions, or maybe even could be even values, religious values
or non-religious values or whatever those things are that that grew.
This society or this civilization are no longer relevant or no longer really
working either because they are not relevant or because they become so stale
and so abused that they no longer work.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: And so people, uh, it becomes a very chaotic environment.
And that's, that's his theory.
That's, that's where we are today.
And so, so environment that we're in is we have a demographic shift.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: we have the boomer generation that's
coming out of age, right?
and so the next biggest generation is the millennial generation.
And so what's happening is, Throughout the entire world that boomer
generation is leaving the earth, right,
Brandon Giella: It's a, it's a great way to put it.
Yes, correct.
Paul Spencer: what, what we're, what we're experiencing is, uh, a loss in population
in the, uh, in the developed world,
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: right?
And so with that, that means that we are going to have issues.
Uh, it's gonna be harder to produce.
Right.
it's gonna be harder to have, uh, certain living standards
if you're not able to produce.
and there are some countries that are falling off the cliff, right?
You can just look these things up.
But some countries, Europe, China, right?
They're off the cliff.
So meaning, uh, they will lose a lot of population, a lot of productivity power
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: the coming however many years, right?
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: Um, the US is just barely.
Under reproducing.
Um, but uh, we also have a immigration, uh, lever that we can pull, right?
Um, people want to come here.
Um, and so anyway, that's changing the world and it's changing how
things are gonna, things are gonna go
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: The, uh, the second one is that the global trade, um.
Pattern that we've had is also slowly, or maybe from your perspective
today, is quickly disintegrating
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: shifting and it's becoming more of a regional economy,
more of a, have you and me, Brandon, let's you and I trade and make a
deal and using Trump's words, right.
Make a deal and then let's you and I make a deal and then we become friends and,
and the whole regional type economy is.
Seems to be where we're going.
Right.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: and that is, um, it's a mix of things.
It's a mix of lots of things.
Um, mostly around the difference between us and China as part of
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: Right.
That be, um, but also because the US has been, um, uh.
Funding the Navy, the world's Navy, and keeping open channels, trade
channels, shipping channels open.
We've had a really long piece time
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: it's been easy to ship things from across the world,
across lots of different countries.
Make something, uh, make one piece in Asia, another piece in Africa,
and another piece in Europe, and then assemble it in Mexico.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: the only reason that's possible is because
the shipping lanes are open.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: And we're seeing that with the Houthis, right?
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: disrupting, um, shipping channels and trade channels, right?
And so now they're having to go around Africa instead of
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: Which increased costs.
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: you start to multiply that out in different
areas and it's very fragile.
Brandon Giella: It feels that way.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: the supply chain, the global supply chain can unravel fairly quickly,
Brandon Giella: Yeah,
Paul Spencer: If you get more of disruptions in the regions.
Brandon Giella: yeah.
Paul Spencer: Um, so anyway, there's lots of different things
like that, that are occurring.
And the other one too is the US uh, has a debt issue.
And
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: so it's, uh, the idea of subsidizing the world's.
Military, right, the navy and keeping everything going and funding wars and
keeping the peace is, uh, running out of, it's running outta runway 'cause it
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: anymore.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: so just by cutting that in half or maybe even a quarter,
jeopardizes different trade routes,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: naval trade routes, o
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Hmm.
Paul Spencer: Um, and then that's why we're, that's why we're
going into more of a regional.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: anyway, those are things that are imposed inputs.
Uh, none of us are going to change that.
those things are occurring.
And then so again, we have to ask ourselves, how does
that affect us, if at all?
Some of us are more insulated to that than others.
Right.
Um.
And, uh, there's no use on getting stuck into the, uh, nitty gritty of
daily kinda media and whatever's going on with the White House and the, the
trades are on, trades are off, and the stocks are down, stocks are up.
None of it is really relevant, um, for the macro side of it.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: the macro side, these things are moving and it doesn't
matter who's president or what's going on, these things are going to occur.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: Um, it's just a matter of are they gonna occur more slowly?
Like we have an opportunity to kinda with it, right?
Just like what we would say with my customers, right?
Let's play with that.
Let's
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: with that theory, run A-P-D-S-A and see what happens.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: so we have an opportunity to do that, um, as
opposed to reaching a critical mass.
say, sometime less than 10 years, 6, 7, 8 years, um, where it has
to be more draconian changes.
Brandon Giella: hmm.
Paul Spencer: we may get there anyway, but who knows?
Um, that part, I don't, I'm not really concerned about that as part of this talk.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: aware that these things are happening, their imposed inputs.
There's nothing we can do about 'em.
We can be educated about 'em and wear about 'em, but in the end, the weather,
Brandon Giella: Hmm
Paul Spencer: And so we, we run business in Florida, so what, how do
our processes, how do our businesses work knowing that it's going to rain?
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
So you just put out a lot of ideas out there.
So I wanna recap really quickly.
And, and see if I'm, I'm summarizing these accurately because by the
way, you know, when we talk about macro, uh, topics, especially like
macroeconomics and things and, and trying to forecast the future, nobody
knows what the future is gonna hold.
But there are frameworks and there are big, um, tectonic plates that
are moving and you can see them and there are likely implications.
We just don't know exactly how they'll play out.
But I, but I like the framework that you're putting together
that's very helpful to understand.
Paul Spencer: that, Brandon, we got, uh, so one of the things that we've
talked about before, um, with some of the videos is optimal, right?
So.
we look at the way to get to optimal, it's a series of feedback loops,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
small feedback
Paul Spencer: loops, right?
And so even in the best of times when it's sunny out and we're, we're,
we're doing our business, we al we're always striving to get to optimal.
And the only way to get to optimal is short feedback loops.
And we cannot predict what optimal is ever until we get there
and we say, yeah, good enough.
Um, but you, you, you have to have the feedback loops.
Brandon Giella: Until the next feedback loop that tells you it's
not optimal and you gotta fix it.
Right.
Paul Spencer: You're never gonna stop.
Because everything around us is always shifting.
Brandon Giella: Right, right, right.
It's, yeah.
Nothing, nothing a static.
So you've got this, you've got these series of, of, um, you know,
generational shifts that occur.
If I had to just pick a a point in history, you know, printing press came out
that four generations later you had the reformation pickup.
Four generations later you had the um, you know, colonial expansion
and the age of exploration.
Four generations later, you had the enlightenment.
Four generations after that, you had the industrial Revolution.
Four generations after that, you had World War
ii, and here we are four generations later.
With COVID and a lot of, you know, global tensions and, and even,
uh, local, you know, national tensions and things like that.
Um,
so going through this period,
Paul Spencer: there is the, is uh, the Civil War.
Brandon Giella: yeah.
Right.
Paul Spencer: and then Civil War.
Brandon Giella: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Right, right.
Paul Spencer: is very fascinating to me.
'cause, uh, the fourth turning book, the Neil Howe book, again,
is just a theory he lays it out.
But, um, unless you're in that kind of crisis period, which according
to his theory, we are in that
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: and you're actually living it, it's really hard to be able to say.
that's true or not,
Brandon Giella: Hmm,
Hmm.
Paul Spencer: they line up and, and it's history, um, but when it's
actually, when you're observing it in real time, it's very, I don't know.
To me it's very fascinating.
Brandon Giella: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
'cause four generations before the printing press was the black plague in
the fall of Constantinople, and then four generations before that was the
ending of the medieval, you know, period.
And moving into a new era.
I mean now, now of course this is just in the West, you know,
and I'm sure every region
just.
Just has, you know, they, they have their four turnings as well.
But I love the idea that, that there are these kind of moments in history
that you can track and build a story out of that does make seem to make sense.
So given all of that, the era that we're in now is you have these two big shifts
of, um, demographic shifts that a lot of the, uh, of their, um, replacement
rate or population growth rate is not quite keeping up, um, with the, the.
Uh, yeah, with the replacement rate, with death, death to birth ratio.
And then you've also got this, what, what was a global economy, global trade
and offshoring and NAFTA and all these, you know, kind of things like this
Paul Spencer: integrated.
Brandon Giella: now.
Paul Spencer: Highly integrated meaning factories.
Were just building one tiny chip.
Brandon Giella: Right.
Paul Spencer: Then other factories are just building the, the casing, right?
Other factories are building the wifi and they're going all, all those raw
materials are going all over the world to be able, all different places,
to build those different components.
They're all being shipped into one place to be assembled.
Brandon Giella: Yep.
Paul Spencer: it's fascinating the way that, I mean, we've been
Brandon Giella: Okay.
Paul Spencer: that,
Brandon Giella: Yep.
Paul Spencer: and it's very unique because we've never experienced that in the world.
Right.
We've never had enough peace to be able to, right.
You might say maybe the, the, what's the, the silk, uh, road,
Brandon Giella: The Silk Road.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: Like those kinds of things,
Brandon Giella: W
Paul Spencer: yeah, it's pretty
Brandon Giella: well, the, the height of that was, you know, Milton
Friedman in the eighties and nineties.
With that, this kind of free trade and, and a lot of, uh, which I'm
a fan of, of Friedman, I think he had a lot of great things to say.
Um, but then four generations before that you had Henry Ford
where everything was a, you know, complete, uh, integrated supply chain.
He built, you know, a giant Red River factory in, in
Michigan to, to do all that.
So, yeah, it's, it's, it's funny how those things kind of turn out.
Paul Spencer: my theory, my theory, and this is again, uh, the reason
why we even started this podcast and the whole newsletter, I.
that in 23 was around these things.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Yeah,
Paul Spencer: but my theory is that things are gonna become more and more localized.
Right.
Just like what you said with Henry Ford.
We're
Brandon Giella: yeah.
Paul Spencer: gonna realize that, the uncertainty is too great.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: from a cost perspective or maybe even from a risk perspective.
And so we're gonna start to, we're gonna start to condense, right?
Which is that that imposed input
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: to regional and things will get closer.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: we'll, the sourcing of materials how we build things and where
we buy things will be become closer.
We'll see if that plays out, but that's, that's the way things are moving.
Brandon Giella: So if this theory is true, which there's a lot of evidence to
say that it is, what do we do about it?
You know, I mean, where do we go from here?
And I, we're running out time, I feel like, but,
but there's a but, but you've got, in this article, you've
got some steps that we can take.
So, so I want to, yeah, I wanna hear your thoughts on, on where we can go.
Paul Spencer: to be clear, we're not gonna do anything about it.
It,
Brandon Giella: Oh yeah.
Fair.
Right?
Yes.
Right.
Paul Spencer: is coming and that's just the way the
Brandon Giella: Yes, yes, yes.
But I, but, but you can take an active approach to that tidal wave that's coming.
You can get a, a, an umbrella of, of some, yeah.
Paul Spencer: and, and I think this is also important too, just to keep in mind,
is this is also from Neil Howe's book, um, which he, he kind of just points out
that, you know, most people are thinking about everything that we're talking
about from the lens of political sides.
Brandon Giella: Yes.
Right.
Paul Spencer: Whether is blue, right?
Right.
Are the Democrats right, or are the Republicans right?
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: is Biden right?
Or is is Trump?
Right?
Right.
And and what he says is, that's the, that's the wrong
question The, the, the most important question that he talks about is, are we
prepared as Americans, right, to deal with, and he use this word, the trauma.
Right.
To be able to go through, uh, an era that will collapse.
He
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: This 80 year generational pattern that will
collapse and another one will emerge.
Kind of to your
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: is we don't know even know what that's going to be, but
the time that crisis, at least using his words right, that crisis period
is traumatic and it collapses.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: So I think that is, that is something to be aware of that, um, of
thinking about how could I change this?
Or maybe who do I vote for?
I mean, you can still do those things, but these things are regardless.
This thing is going to happen.
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: So how do we build a resilient business?
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: And all of that is just based on risk management.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: And thinking about, um, how do you, uh, how do you analyze.
Your customers, which ones are at risk?
Which ones aren't?
Which ones should we double down on?
Which areas of the industry should we go after next?
Um, because we feel we're predicting, right?
We have a theory that they are more secure or less risk given all
the inputs that we have, right?
So the input being that rain.
Where can we go that we can, we can have, we can build more, we can do
the things that we wanna do and not
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: can we go, where we don't have the, uh, the,
the trade issues or where
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: that the demographics aren't as, as, um, risky, right?
Or as impactful.
Um, and maybe there's not anything you can do about that.
So you just do better, better, for worse, right?
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: of things.
So you're thinking about risk management, um, you're wanting to
kind of play those scenarios out.
And most people that I work with know that I like to do the rehearsals,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: So we rehearse those scenarios and we say, all right,
we get, uh, different departments in the room and we say, all right,
customer X is no longer with us.
Right?
do we do?
Brandon Giella: Hmm,
Paul Spencer: it and we play it out, and
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: just kind of mock it up, right?
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: And what that does is that gives us a se that's a short
feedback loop that we can do in a half day or a two hour or one hour.
And what it does is it gives us some learnings about gaps in our processes,
gaps in our understanding, and maybe some, assumptions that we make about
our own business that are incorrect.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Okay.
Paul Spencer: those do is that gives us a, an opportunity
to say, oh, maybe we should.
that up.
Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.
Paul Spencer: improve that system.
Maybe we should, uh, think a little differently about our customer base.
Maybe we should go talk to our customers because we're assuming this, but we're
actually not sure that that's correct.
Let's go ask them.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Hmm.
Paul Spencer: which is all okay to do, right?
And then as we go through that, we're thinking about,
our systems, our processes.
iterate, right?
We run PDSAs and we're doing this always, all the time anyway.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: how our business should run.
Uh, this is taking it at a, at a more strategic level and it's saying
let's run a risk management process, which is just what I just described.
And we're constantly thinking about where are risks.
We prioritize those risks, and then we, then we run scenarios.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Okay.
Uh, I have so much more to say.
Okay.
Um, so the way that you phrase this is vulnerability landscape.
Future scenarios, mapping those out, designing resilience systems around that
testing, uh, through small experience, uh, uh, experiments,
PDSA loops, things like that.
And then finding that balance to achieve optimal.
So those are the kind of steps that you take to see these inputs come in
this tidal wave that's coming at you.
Paul Spencer: Exactly.
And then as an owner, or I mean even as an executive leader, you
can put a team together, which doesn't have to be executives, it
can be anybody in your organization
Brandon Giella: Hmm
Paul Spencer: has different perspectives, um, different, um, seniority, meaning, uh,
somebody who's new to the company versus somebody who's been there for 30 years.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: And you, you put a team of three or four together, you.
Have 'em listen to this podcast and you say, figure some things out,
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: uh, let's get back next week and, um, run some scenarios,
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Yep.
Cool.
Yeah,
Paul Spencer: is the, this here, this is, I think this is, um, um, the main
thing of all this and thinking about the soda industry and losing their
snap account and all of that, um, is just insight into us that, uh, we don't
have to panic there are no guarantees,
Brandon Giella: sure.
Sure.
Paul Spencer: guarantees, but if we are methodical and we are,
um, mature in how we run our business, um, we can handle a lot,
Brandon Giella: Yeah,
yeah,
Paul Spencer: of, um, inputs and a lot of transition,
Brandon Giella: yeah.
Paul Spencer: and we'll come out the other side stronger.
Brandon Giella: If I could summarize it in one word, it would be, uh, systematic,
you know, think systemically about your business and the world that you're in.
And that alone will start to make your business more resilient to
face these, these challenges.
Yeah.
Paul Spencer: and it to I'll translate that was, if I'm
systematic in my thinking, that means that I've developed a process
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: runs every quarter where I have the four people my risk
management team, and they have a clear.
transparent risk management process that we've developed together and
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Hmm,
Paul Spencer: That is systematic.
That's systematic thinking.
Brandon Giella: Hmm hmm.
Okay.
Paul Spencer: And it's, and I have confidence as the owner that, uh, when,
when something like this is happening and I'm getting this, uh, tariff update.
I know that I have a process that's running that's
thinking about these things.
And if I have a question, I go ask the team or I may even be on the team, right?
And I can go say, have you thought about this?
And they say, yeah, we thought about that
Brandon Giella: Yeah.
Paul Spencer: is the, this is what we arrived to,
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: No we haven't.
We'll put that in our process
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: run it next meeting.
Brandon Giella: Hmm.
Paul Spencer: I'm like, good thanks.
Right?
And that's calm, peace of mind
Brandon Giella: Calm.
Paul Spencer: running the business.
Brandon Giella: Calm.
Can you imagine running a calm business?
That sounds wonderful.
Paul Spencer: owners hear the noise and then they tamper.
Right?
Brandon Giella: Hmm,
Paul Spencer: then they say, go work on this.
Brandon Giella: hmm
Paul Spencer: but there's no process in place.
And now
Brandon Giella: hmm.
Paul Spencer: scrambling, they're doing all kinds of stuff, and it
doesn't, that doesn't mean anything.
That doesn't have a lasting effect.
Brandon Giella: That resonates.
Paul Spencer: That's a traditional business, by the way.
Brandon Giella: That is very helpful to think about the
systematic processes, but I, I hope.
That listeners were taking notes because there was a lot of big, um,
ideas, but also getting more concrete into the systematic processes.
Um, but what I wanna do is I wanna, I wanna try to recap this article in
a newsletter, you know, and we can send that out, um, to the community.
So if you're listening to this, please go to Second Nature, do Solutions
and sign up for our newsletter.
And you'll receive a seven day, uh, kind of onboarding experience working
through the main, uh, foundational principles of second Nature.
Um, and as part of that, you'll receive, uh, newsletters as,
as the, the show comes out.
And so I, I would like to put this article that you wrote, you know, partially
in that newsletter for the community.
So please go sign up as always, like, and subscribe.
And, uh, Paul, we will see you next time.
Thank you so much for your insight and wisdom as always.
Paul Spencer: Yeah, so much fun.
Brandon Giella: I see you.
Paul Spencer: Bye.