The Financial Source Podcast

📌 Week Ahead Market & News Briefing – Short Notes
  • Fed Decision (Main Event):
    • 25bp cut to 4.00–4.25% expected.
    • Dot plot & Chair Powell’s tone key for FX.
    • Fewer cuts than priced = USD bullish; deeper easing = USD bearish.
  • USD/JPY Focus:
    • BoJ expected to hold at 0.50% (95% probability).
    • Fed outcome likely drives pair’s direction this week.
  • Bank of Canada:
    • CPI Tuesday, rate decision Wednesday – 90% chance of cut.
    • Risk skewed toward CAD short-covering if no cut.
  • Bank of England:
    • Jobs, CPI, then BOE Thursday.
    • Rate hold at 4% likely (7–2 vote).
    • QT slowdown expected (£70–75bn); a bigger cut to £50bn could lift GBP.
  • Gold:
    • Key resistance: 3,660.
    • Hawkish Fed → pullback toward 3,500; dovish Fed → breakout toward 3,700–3,800.
  • US Labor Data:
    • Jobless claims Thursday crucial for confirming labor weakness.
    • Elevated claims = dovish USD; sharp drop = USD support.
  • Macro Theme:
    • G7 policy divergence driving FX.
    • Watch Fed guidance, BoC easing path, BOE QT calibration.

What is The Financial Source Podcast?

Your daily dose of sentiment updates in the European and US sessions and critical risk event previews so you stay up to date with what's moving the market right now.