It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect’s online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.
Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Event: The World in 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024
How to think about tariffs
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffs
Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond
Data: China Activity Proxy
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy
Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating
What is Capital Economics Weekly Briefing?
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next move to China's slowdown to the global housing bust, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.