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James: Welcome to the Honest Money
Show a big thanks to our sponsor.

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Shop Bitcoin Australia for
making today's episode possible.

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Anja: Hello.

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Joining me today is James Check, also
known as, uh, check, check Matey.

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Um, James Check, uh, has a
website called check on chain.com,

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and he does on chain analysis.

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You guys probably already know of him.

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Uh, he's world famous.

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And over to you.

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James.

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Welcome to Honest Money.

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James: Thanks for having me on.

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No, it's good.

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It's, uh, it's good to be here.

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And yeah, I mean, my, I guess I, I
consider myself a Bitcoin analyst.

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Um, the, the on chain side is definitely
where I've specialized over the years,

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but, uh, in many ways, like Bitcoin has
so much transparency in terms of its data.

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Uh, we can see spot markets,
we can see derivatives markets,

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we can see on chain markets.

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We can see the ETFs now we can
see treasury companies and all

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of these different elements just
construct the interesting world.

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That is the Bitcoin economy.

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And, uh, I consider myself an observer
and analyst of all the people.

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And I think that's the
most important thing.

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It's the humans behaving in futures
markets or buying and selling

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in spot markets, hobbling their
coins, not hobbling their coins.

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Um, taking profits, taking losses.

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At the end of the day,
Bitcoin is a story of people.

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Uh, it's a very strange asset
because people love it and hate it.

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And it really is on one of
those two bell curve extremes.

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Uh, very few people are
kind of neutral on it.

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And, uh, as a result we get a really
interesting dynamic of people making good

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decisions, bad decisions, um, expressing
how much they hate it, expressing how

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much they won, um, hobbling because they
believe in it and selling 'cause they've

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just had enough for the bear market.

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So, um, to me it's fascinating.

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It's a study of people as
much as it is the asset.

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Absolutely.

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And a love what's happening
in Bitcoin at the moment.

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I think this opens up a great, uh, you
know, gate for, for this conversation.

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So we know there's been a drawback
because a lot of the people in

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my life who refuse to talk about
Bitcoin, um, with me have come to me.

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Anja: It's like, did you know
Bitcoin has had a drawback?

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I'm like, yes.

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It's almost like there's
a sense of smartness.

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Yes.

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James: And did you also know that it's
up 110% two back to back years in a row?

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Did you know that as well?

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Yes.

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Uh, funny that

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Anja: I know, but it's, it's
so bizarre because like.

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Because it's this new asset class and
it's so different to anything else,

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uh, people just lose their manners.

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It's like, imagine if Australian real
estate dipped by 10% or 20% in a month.

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I would be a dickhead if I went
to How, how are you going not

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James: paying your mortgage?

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Anja: Like, right.

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Can

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James: you imagine that?

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Like, can you imagine it?

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Anja: No, it would just be considered
the rudest thing, but somehow it's

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perfectly okay to do that with Bitcoin.

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James: Totally.

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How, how do you feel now that your
superannuation's been cut in half?

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How does it feel, you
know, you can't retire now.

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Is that like, does that feel good?

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You know, I told you
you should have sold it.

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It's like, get outta here.

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But you're right.

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It is a strange asset where
people feel this like.

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They're allowed to, to make noise
about it in a way that they just

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wouldn't with any other asset.

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So it's a strange thing, but again,
it's also why the journey of the

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Bitcoin is interesting because you
have to build, maintain, and hold

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conviction when literally the whole
world from the government down to

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your auntie is telling you that
you're an idiot and you are wrong.

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So that takes a very special, uh, it, it's
a character building exercise for sure.

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But I've got this, uh, this, this thought
process I've had recently for folks

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who've been, let's just say from the
previous cycle onwards, 2020 onwards.

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If you went through that period
of time, like if we look at

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the regulatory environment for
Bitcoin right now, it's basically

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embraced by the US administration.

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Uh, you know, we've got ETFs.

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They're the most successful ETFs
of all time Wall Street's on board.

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The banks are coming on board.

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We're not early anymore, but
it's now acceptable to own it.

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Asset managers are
allowed to recommend it.

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We're slowly getting
to that point in time.

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I don't think we go back to the world
where it's as hated and like, you

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know, actively being attacked by the
regulatory regime for the Bitcoiners

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who survived previous cycles.

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You lived a once in a lifetime experience.

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We will never have a time where the
whole world tells you that you are wrong.

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Only people who are wrong are gonna
tell you that you're wrong now.

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So we are now in this environment where
if you live that and you survived it,

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the conviction that you built of riding
an asset down 80%, when the whole

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world tells you that you're wrong,
that's a once in a lifetime journey.

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So you gotta take that conviction
as a tool in your belt because it

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has shaped you in a way that no one
will ever experience that again.

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I can't imagine an asset like
Bitcoin going through multiple 80%

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corrections and ripping back to all
time highs, time after time, after time.

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At any point in our lifetime.

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I can't imagine an asset coming out
that's gonna beat the Bitcoin ETFs.

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Like what on earth could it possibly be?

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So you've kind of lived a very unique.

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Period in Bitcoin time, and you should
take those tools and really, you

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know, look after them be, and, and put
them to good use because you've got a

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skillset that most people do not have.

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Anja: Yeah, I love that.

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And it, it, it's funny because,
you know, I'm only new to Bitcoin.

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I've entered Bitcoin just before
the halving last year, so I've

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been here for just over a year.

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And there are still people that are, you
know, vocal about it, even on LinkedIn.

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And these people now, this, a handful of
them and we all know kind of who they are.

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It's kind of a bit of a
brand building exercise.

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Like you almost expect them to come out
with a comment, especially with where

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there's a drawback, um, calling it a scam.

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And it's just really funny because
these people are, it's kind of, I have

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ha secondhand embarrassment for them.

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Like totally, you know, it is a bit,
it's not the same as criticizing it back

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in, you know, 2014 or 15 or whatever.

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Like, it's a bit different in 2025 to
have that opinion and have it so strongly.

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Um, yeah, a few people flipping,

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James: but have you, and, and something
that I often do when you've got those

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particular like tradify analysts where
they like to say like, oh, Bitcoin's

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gonna go to zero, it's gonna go to zero.

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Like, and we're not
talking about Peter Schiff.

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'cause Peter Schiff, I think he's
just a meme at this point in time.

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Anja: Yeah, yeah.

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James: But there's, there's
genuinely still tra fi analysts

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who think it's going to zero.

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And, you know, my, my, my line
these days is like, okay, based

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on what, like what is your thesis?

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Gimme your threshold.

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And this is the most important thing.

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'cause if you're an analyst.

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You want people to take you seriously.

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You need to know what your
threshold for being wrong is.

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So if you just keep saying it's a
scam, and next thing you know it's

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at a 5 trillion, then a 10 trillion,
then the 30 trillion, then it flips

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gold, then it actually becomes money.

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If you actually look at those like
milestones, one of those on that journey,

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you have to admit that you are wrong.

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And if the analyst cannot give you
a very clear threshold, and then

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we've got a target, we say, okay, 2
trillion wasn't enough, but 5 trillion

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is I'll see you at 5 trillion.

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And then you just come back with the
receipts and you say, well, are you wrong?

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Have you accepted defeat?

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What do you think you missed?

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And what you actually find is that
most of these analysts, they do

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not have a threshold because they
haven't thought about it properly

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and they aren't serious analysts.

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And that's all you need to know.

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So just ask people, what is your
threshold at which you would

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perhaps reassess your priors?

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They can't come up with it.

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That shows you how much thought
they've actually gone into.

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Anja: Yeah, I do keep screenshots
talking about keeping receipts.

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I have been taking screenshots,
especially on LinkedIn.

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It's quite funny.

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Um, like I remember speaking
to Ethan at the time.

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I was like, why am I
being attacked so much?

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I'm just posting about Bitcoin
and I, I wasn't even been

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aggravating or anything like that.

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Um, and yeah, a few people, like lots
of CEOs, lots of people with a SX

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listed companies like, uh, people in
traditional finance, um, quants that

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own companies that like really, um.

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Coming at me and I've kept screenshots
and there's some really funny exchanges

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that maybe I'll do like a, a yearly video
of hate mail that I've been receiving.

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James: A montage.

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Yeah.

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Anja: Yeah.

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It's like since they commented
publicly, I'm sure, um, they will

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feel very comfortable with me,
um, making fun of them online.

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Totally.

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Um, but I would love to know, uh,
James, is what's happening at the

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moment, uh, where do you see the market?

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Like I've seen a few different,
uh, hypotheses as to what's

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happening, potentially three.

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One that it's just a minor drawback and
we're about to resume the bull market.

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The second scenario is that we're
gonna continue to chop solid for

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another extended period of time.

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And the third one, which is the bear
case, is that we might've actually

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seen a top, and now we are going back.

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James: Sure.

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Yeah.

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And, and look, the truth is,
the first thing is first, no

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one can predict the future.

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And I think that's a really
freeing exercise in markets.

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People love to pretend that they've
got their famous indicator and

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it's gonna tell 'em the future.

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And it, it just doesn't work that way.

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So everything you think about
has to be in probabilities.

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Now, the way that I think about
things, this cycle has been different.

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It, it just measurably has been different.

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The volatility is different.

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The drawdowns are nowhere near as
severe as they've been in the past.

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We take a lot longer.

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So, um, if you go back to 2017, for
example, you go on holidays, like

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to the beach for a weekend, you come
back, the price has gone down 40%

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and it's back at all time highs.

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You missed it completely 'cause
you were too busy swimming.

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Now you can be swimming the whole year
and you'll be at the exact same price

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and that is a whole different kind of
pain because the market going down.

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It's funny, I think there's, for
Bitcoin is, in particular because

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we love this asset so much, we,
we like, we wanna buy more of it.

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A five, 10, 15% dip is just hell
because it's not enough of a discount

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that you are like, oh yeah, I'm
gonna step in front of this thing.

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But it also, like, if it's just down
15%, it's not enough to step in.

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But it also feels a bit expensive.

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It's not the top, but
it's also not the bottom.

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You're like, what is this
thing I don't want it to do?

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When it goes down 30%, everyone's
like, oh yeah, here we go.

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Like selling chairs looking
under the couch for, for coins.

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Like, I'm just gonna go
buy as much as I can.

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So you need like, enough of a
downside move for Bitcoin is to

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really go, okay, now I've gotta
step back in front of this thing.

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Now in the current market structure,
I mean this is, it's a very complex,

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I I would say it's the most complex
market structure we've ever seen.

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Much easier to understand.

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'cause it was purely just like
organic adoption back in 2017.

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There's a bunch of stuff with
leverage and derivatives going

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on in 2018 and, and, uh, 2019.

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2020. This cycle is.

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It very different.

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We've got the ETFs, which change things.

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We've got treasury companies,
which are, are a minor factor,

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but they do train change things.

229
00:11:03,446 --> 00:11:07,436
Institutions, they behave very
differently to individuals.

230
00:11:08,246 --> 00:11:12,176
Individuals smashed by
panic sell institutions.

231
00:11:12,566 --> 00:11:16,136
They sit there in the order books and
they allow the market to sell to them.

232
00:11:16,256 --> 00:11:18,506
They don't chase the
market, they don't fomo buy.

233
00:11:18,836 --> 00:11:22,166
They allow people who are
scared to sell to them.

234
00:11:22,166 --> 00:11:25,196
So they're patient, they're
sophisticated, they're hedged,

235
00:11:25,436 --> 00:11:26,576
and they just sit there and wait.

236
00:11:26,876 --> 00:11:29,456
And they have all the time in the world
and they've got all the money in the

237
00:11:29,456 --> 00:11:31,016
world, so they behave differently.

238
00:11:31,496 --> 00:11:34,586
We've got options going
live in, uh, for the ETFs.

239
00:11:34,646 --> 00:11:36,116
That's a huge thing.

240
00:11:36,116 --> 00:11:39,806
That's, it's nuanced in detail, but
that changes market structure as well.

241
00:11:40,481 --> 00:11:46,031
And right now in terms of that dip
in the pullback, um, my current

242
00:11:46,031 --> 00:11:49,751
odds is about 70% bull, 30% bear.

243
00:11:49,811 --> 00:11:52,511
And I do think that people should
take the bear case seriously.

244
00:11:52,931 --> 00:11:56,621
Uh, and it's simply 'cause it's
the most bearish like set up that

245
00:11:56,621 --> 00:11:58,451
we've seen in Bitcoin of this cycle.

246
00:11:59,321 --> 00:12:02,531
Now then I also come back and say,
well, if we go into a bear market,

247
00:12:02,921 --> 00:12:05,711
uh, I don't think we go down 75%.

248
00:12:05,921 --> 00:12:09,251
I just don't, I don't think
we have the explosive uplift.

249
00:12:09,251 --> 00:12:13,931
And the reason why you need a really
strong, like unsustainable move to the

250
00:12:13,931 --> 00:12:16,121
upside to create the downside of 75.

251
00:12:16,976 --> 00:12:20,816
Is hyper, like hyperbolic
prices make people do dumb shit.

252
00:12:20,996 --> 00:12:25,016
That's just like people get so over levied
and they buy way too much with money

253
00:12:25,016 --> 00:12:28,226
that they shouldn't have spent and they
buy it all when it's the most exciting,

254
00:12:28,226 --> 00:12:29,306
which is the perfectly wrong time.

255
00:12:29,846 --> 00:12:33,656
When the market's been like grinding
like this, people have so much longer to

256
00:12:33,656 --> 00:12:35,276
like, oh, okay, I'm gonna de-risk there.

257
00:12:35,516 --> 00:12:36,836
All right, I'll go and hedge over there.

258
00:12:37,016 --> 00:12:38,546
Maybe I'll go and buy this other thing.

259
00:12:38,666 --> 00:12:41,546
There's no momentum here so I won't
over like no one's over leveraging

260
00:12:41,546 --> 00:12:42,776
in a market that's going nowhere.

261
00:12:42,836 --> 00:12:43,646
There's no excitement.

262
00:12:44,966 --> 00:12:47,606
The pullback, if we think about
this from US dollar terms, we're

263
00:12:47,606 --> 00:12:48,686
about a hundred K right now.

264
00:12:49,316 --> 00:12:52,436
I think if we sell off, we
probably go down to like 80

265
00:12:52,436 --> 00:12:54,086
K, 85, something like that.

266
00:12:54,086 --> 00:12:56,036
That's kind of where
I think we bottom out.

267
00:12:56,306 --> 00:13:00,476
I'd be amazed if we go below 75, uh,
and if we do all of those prices I

268
00:13:00,476 --> 00:13:02,216
still think are just unbelievable value.

269
00:13:02,216 --> 00:13:05,336
Anything under a hundred K.
So then you go, well, if your

270
00:13:05,336 --> 00:13:06,956
downside is 20% from here.

271
00:13:08,201 --> 00:13:10,781
Like I'm a Bitcoin or I've
been through 80% drawdowns like

272
00:13:10,781 --> 00:13:12,401
five, six times in my time.

273
00:13:12,401 --> 00:13:14,741
Like I don't care about 20%
pullback, I'll buy that as well.

274
00:13:14,741 --> 00:13:16,841
So then I'm like, but the
upside is just infinite.

275
00:13:17,231 --> 00:13:21,491
So I have a feeling that we are getting
right now, the, the, I think most of

276
00:13:21,491 --> 00:13:25,331
the sell side pressure is coming from
existing holders and we can measure this.

277
00:13:26,021 --> 00:13:29,561
I've been calling it um, more
recently the great rotation.

278
00:13:30,251 --> 00:13:33,431
There's a lot of people who believe
in the Bitcoin four year cycle

279
00:13:33,581 --> 00:13:36,101
and they are selling right now
'cause they believe the top is in.

280
00:13:36,941 --> 00:13:40,121
There's a lot of people who are
disappointed with the market

281
00:13:40,121 --> 00:13:43,091
cycle 'cause it hasn't gone up
enough, which is code word for

282
00:13:43,091 --> 00:13:46,031
their expectations were completely
unrealistic and it didn't get met.

283
00:13:46,061 --> 00:13:50,981
And now this sad, um, I think a lot
of people got absolutely destroyed,

284
00:13:51,011 --> 00:13:54,101
speculating on shit coins which
didn't go anywhere and treasury

285
00:13:54,101 --> 00:13:55,721
companies, which went down 90%.

286
00:13:55,721 --> 00:13:59,681
So I think a lot of people lost a lot
of money on not Bitcoin things and

287
00:13:59,681 --> 00:14:01,241
they blame the market cycle for it.

288
00:14:01,871 --> 00:14:04,301
Uh, and there's also a
hundred thousand dollars.

289
00:14:04,841 --> 00:14:10,871
Like, if we think about how far Bitcoin
has come in 16, 17 years, if you tried

290
00:14:10,871 --> 00:14:14,771
to cash out, we saw one guy cash out
80,000 Bitcoin back in July, 80,000.

291
00:14:14,771 --> 00:14:16,601
He bought them in 2014.

292
00:14:16,601 --> 00:14:16,961
No, no.

293
00:14:16,961 --> 00:14:19,331
2011. He held them for 14 years.

294
00:14:20,411 --> 00:14:25,781
He cashed out $9.6 billion with a B.
What do you do with that kind of money?

295
00:14:25,931 --> 00:14:31,901
But like, imagine if he had a sold $9.6
billion worth of Bitcoin a year ago when

296
00:14:31,901 --> 00:14:34,991
the previous US administration was in, he
would've had his bank account shut down.

297
00:14:35,141 --> 00:14:36,401
Like the dude would've gone to prison.

298
00:14:36,581 --> 00:14:38,561
The feds would've been at
his house in 10 minutes.

299
00:14:39,221 --> 00:14:44,021
Now he actually has the ability because
it's no longer, you know, um, being

300
00:14:44,021 --> 00:14:45,851
attacked actively by the US government.

301
00:14:45,851 --> 00:14:49,511
He now actually can safely sell
for the first time in his entire

302
00:14:49,511 --> 00:14:51,851
life that he's held Bitcoin,
he can finally, actually exit.

303
00:14:52,301 --> 00:14:57,041
So a hundred K has been a
psychological stretch target

304
00:14:57,041 --> 00:14:59,441
for so many people for so long.

305
00:15:00,086 --> 00:15:03,326
It's just a period of time where
the old money who bought Bitcoin

306
00:15:03,326 --> 00:15:07,586
when it was gonna die and it had no
chance of success, it has succeeded.

307
00:15:07,856 --> 00:15:08,576
They're wealthiest.

308
00:15:08,606 --> 00:15:11,096
They're wealthier beyond their
wildest dreams, and they finally

309
00:15:11,096 --> 00:15:14,786
have the opportunity and the buy
side to actually exit their position.

310
00:15:15,266 --> 00:15:19,586
So honestly, my views at the market
is just going through this rotation.

311
00:15:19,586 --> 00:15:23,426
We're getting a changing of the
guard old money to new money at

312
00:15:23,426 --> 00:15:26,006
retail, primarily to institutions.

313
00:15:26,366 --> 00:15:28,376
High net worth individuals
are buying this thing.

314
00:15:28,676 --> 00:15:29,876
Institutions are buying it.

315
00:15:29,876 --> 00:15:32,576
I guarantee you there's gonna
be some news in the next 12,

316
00:15:32,576 --> 00:15:35,546
24 months of some big sovereign
nation that's been buying in here.

317
00:15:36,086 --> 00:15:39,236
Because here's the thing, the sell
side pressure we are watching right

318
00:15:39,236 --> 00:15:42,566
now is in the hundreds of billions
of dollars just in this year.

319
00:15:42,596 --> 00:15:43,736
Hundreds of billions of dollars.

320
00:15:44,216 --> 00:15:49,016
The amount of sell side that Bitcoin
has absorbed by my estimates is as big

321
00:15:49,016 --> 00:15:52,466
as the market cap of a top 100 company
in the world, the whole market cap.

322
00:15:52,586 --> 00:15:54,866
So who the hell is buying?

323
00:15:55,271 --> 00:15:58,181
Because that's the real interesting
story for me as an analyst.

324
00:15:58,211 --> 00:16:00,701
I can see when people who
bought five years ago sell.

325
00:16:01,421 --> 00:16:01,541
Speaker 2: Yeah.

326
00:16:01,541 --> 00:16:03,161
James: What I can't tell
is who they sold to.

327
00:16:03,491 --> 00:16:04,901
We can only find that out later on.

328
00:16:04,901 --> 00:16:08,021
But if you are coming into this
market with like in aggregate, there's

329
00:16:08,021 --> 00:16:11,321
not one dude here, but like lots
of entities collectively bringing

330
00:16:11,351 --> 00:16:15,041
hundreds of billions of dollars and
being willing to buy this thing above

331
00:16:15,041 --> 00:16:18,851
a hundred K, these are not small fish.

332
00:16:18,911 --> 00:16:23,471
These are giant allocators who
just take supply off the market.

333
00:16:24,011 --> 00:16:25,181
They're not looking for a 10% pump.

334
00:16:25,421 --> 00:16:27,161
These guys buy this stuff and
they put it into a vault and

335
00:16:27,161 --> 00:16:28,091
they never talk about it again.

336
00:16:28,391 --> 00:16:32,171
So there is going to come
a point where there's just,

337
00:16:33,041 --> 00:16:34,451
there's just no sellers left.

338
00:16:34,571 --> 00:16:37,181
And to me that's a
really exciting concept.

339
00:16:37,181 --> 00:16:40,631
So even if we go lower, it's
just an opportunity of the ages.

340
00:16:40,631 --> 00:16:42,461
Anything below a hundred
K is a gift in my view.

341
00:16:42,881 --> 00:16:43,871
Anja: I would love it.

342
00:16:45,371 --> 00:16:45,881
Just really,

343
00:16:45,881 --> 00:16:48,581
James: I know it's a, it's a psychopathic
thing that we have as bitcoins.

344
00:16:48,581 --> 00:16:49,811
We're like, I want the price to go down.

345
00:16:49,961 --> 00:16:51,581
People are like, people
are like, it's a draw down.

346
00:16:51,581 --> 00:16:52,511
I'm like, I know it's great.

347
00:16:52,511 --> 00:16:52,901
I love it.

348
00:16:52,901 --> 00:16:54,041
I can, I can actually buy more.

349
00:16:54,041 --> 00:16:54,341
Like what?

350
00:16:54,341 --> 00:16:54,851
Are you insane?

351
00:16:54,851 --> 00:16:57,071
I'm like, probably, but like it's working.

352
00:16:57,701 --> 00:16:58,271
You know what I mean?

353
00:16:58,271 --> 00:16:58,721
It's working.

354
00:16:59,141 --> 00:16:59,561
Anja: Yeah.

355
00:16:59,561 --> 00:17:00,881
And that was my reaction.

356
00:17:00,881 --> 00:17:03,611
'cause when a person in my life
that said to me like, oh, did you

357
00:17:03,611 --> 00:17:05,411
see dip in a kind of smug way?

358
00:17:05,411 --> 00:17:08,021
And I didn't even register how
they meant it at the time, but

359
00:17:08,021 --> 00:17:09,461
I was like, Hey, it's on sale.

360
00:17:11,466 --> 00:17:11,981
Yep, totally.

361
00:17:11,986 --> 00:17:16,241
And there must be, they must be wondering
like, what is wrong with this chick?

362
00:17:16,511 --> 00:17:17,111
But, um,

363
00:17:17,111 --> 00:17:20,471
James: well there's a psychological theme
because markets are a very unique beast

364
00:17:20,471 --> 00:17:23,921
because CEOs in particular, like people
who are very competent in business,

365
00:17:23,921 --> 00:17:27,731
actually suck at markets because they
think that they can solve it the same way.

366
00:17:28,391 --> 00:17:30,701
Markets are actually a
very interesting dynamic.

367
00:17:31,631 --> 00:17:36,341
Uh, humans are naturally geared to
be bearish in markets because we're

368
00:17:36,341 --> 00:17:39,821
always afraid of getting, like, if you
go back to like a instinctual level,

369
00:17:40,031 --> 00:17:41,441
no one wants to get eaten by the lion.

370
00:17:41,561 --> 00:17:44,351
So we're always looking for like the
negative things in our environment

371
00:17:44,351 --> 00:17:45,431
to like protect ourselves.

372
00:17:45,641 --> 00:17:47,171
It's why doom scrolling is a thing.

373
00:17:47,171 --> 00:17:51,761
'cause people like, we gravitate
towards negative energy because we're,

374
00:17:51,941 --> 00:17:53,321
we are geared for looking for it.

375
00:17:53,891 --> 00:17:58,901
So being an optimist is actually the
not the norm for people in markets.

376
00:17:59,231 --> 00:18:03,321
We fear loss and we also, it's, it's
actually scientifically and, and

377
00:18:03,341 --> 00:18:06,461
psychologically shown the fear of a loss.

378
00:18:06,461 --> 00:18:08,891
So when you buy an asset and
it goes down, that hurts.

379
00:18:09,311 --> 00:18:14,351
But what hurts a whole lot more is
when people wanted to buy and it goes

380
00:18:14,351 --> 00:18:15,941
up and the train leaves without them.

381
00:18:16,331 --> 00:18:20,561
That fomo fear is actually way worse
for most people, and what happens is

382
00:18:20,561 --> 00:18:22,751
they wait because they wanna feel safe.

383
00:18:22,751 --> 00:18:25,421
The price is going up and it's
going up, and then they finally feel

384
00:18:25,421 --> 00:18:28,451
safe when everyone else is buying
and when everyone else is buying.

385
00:18:28,451 --> 00:18:30,281
That's usually the
worst time to be buying.

386
00:18:30,881 --> 00:18:33,221
So, uh, there's a, a good framework here.

387
00:18:33,911 --> 00:18:37,601
Whenever the, like if you go to
buy Bitcoin or any asset and your

388
00:18:37,601 --> 00:18:41,291
stomach is churning, like you
just feel sick to your stomach.

389
00:18:41,291 --> 00:18:43,031
You're like, I'm making
a horrible decision here.

390
00:18:43,421 --> 00:18:45,101
Press on, do it, carry on.

391
00:18:45,341 --> 00:18:49,151
Do not stop when you go to buy
and you're like, I can't wait.

392
00:18:49,151 --> 00:18:51,371
Like, I cannot wait for my
money to hit my bank account.

393
00:18:51,371 --> 00:18:52,841
I need to send it to
the exchange right now.

394
00:18:52,871 --> 00:18:53,261
Stop.

395
00:18:53,381 --> 00:18:53,981
Go for a walk.

396
00:18:54,431 --> 00:18:55,061
Go for a walk.

397
00:18:55,121 --> 00:18:56,411
It's the exact wrong time to buy.

398
00:18:56,651 --> 00:18:58,601
Never ever buy something.

399
00:18:59,141 --> 00:19:01,241
Uh, if you're a daily
DCA holder, who cares?

400
00:19:01,241 --> 00:19:04,931
But never buy something when it feels
great because you're probably buying

401
00:19:05,231 --> 00:19:08,381
maybe not the top, but you're certainly
buying at a, at a relatively high price.

402
00:19:09,101 --> 00:19:14,231
Anja: Mm. I've seen recently that
river in the US has released a product,

403
00:19:14,231 --> 00:19:18,881
like a buying feature where you
can double down on those drawbacks.

404
00:19:18,881 --> 00:19:22,181
So if you've got a limit order, and
you know, you've said it, I don't know.

405
00:19:22,181 --> 00:19:27,341
It's something if I don't exactly know
how it works, but I understand the concept

406
00:19:27,341 --> 00:19:30,311
that you can basically add more to that.

407
00:19:31,301 --> 00:19:35,501
Order so that you can buy more if you've
got cash sitting, sitting in that account.

408
00:19:35,501 --> 00:19:39,821
I thought that was quite like a
clever feature, um, which got me

409
00:19:39,821 --> 00:19:43,541
thinking then it's like, I wonder if
it would be a cool idea to somehow

410
00:19:43,541 --> 00:19:50,591
develop a, a product that actually,
um, buys on, on the Fear Greed index.

411
00:19:50,591 --> 00:19:54,701
So the more fearful the
market is, the more you buy.

412
00:19:56,381 --> 00:19:56,711
James: Totally.

413
00:19:56,711 --> 00:19:56,801
Did

414
00:19:56,801 --> 00:19:56,981
Anja: that work?

415
00:19:57,431 --> 00:20:00,401
James: And in many ways, this is how
I, this is how I try to structure.

416
00:20:00,401 --> 00:20:04,631
I mean, for me, when I do my analysis,
uh, I use my own analysis to try and

417
00:20:04,631 --> 00:20:08,141
work at where I wanna buy, and I've
got a couple of tools that I use.

418
00:20:08,381 --> 00:20:12,041
So the Fear and Greed index is kind of,
it's, it's okay, but there's other tools

419
00:20:12,041 --> 00:20:16,241
that actually show you when people who
bought the local top it, it's amazing,

420
00:20:16,241 --> 00:20:18,761
like human psychology is so consistent.

421
00:20:19,511 --> 00:20:23,141
A bunch of people always buy the local
top and then they huddle and they

422
00:20:23,141 --> 00:20:25,631
huddle and the dip keeps dipping and
they keep dipping and then eventually

423
00:20:25,631 --> 00:20:26,921
they go, oh my God, I'm done.

424
00:20:27,191 --> 00:20:28,241
I bought the top, I'm an idiot.

425
00:20:28,241 --> 00:20:30,821
And they all sell at the exact same time.

426
00:20:31,151 --> 00:20:35,201
So when you see coins that were bought
high, being sold low and locking in

427
00:20:35,201 --> 00:20:37,211
the losses, that's when I step in.

428
00:20:37,271 --> 00:20:38,501
That's when I'm like, thank you very much.

429
00:20:38,501 --> 00:20:42,521
Now I know that I'm not buying the
top, it may not be the bottom, but I

430
00:20:42,521 --> 00:20:43,961
know I'm not buying the top anymore.

431
00:20:43,961 --> 00:20:45,491
So it's a very similar dynamic.

432
00:20:45,701 --> 00:20:50,081
Show me when the dumb money who firmed
in at the top huddled all the way

433
00:20:50,081 --> 00:20:53,471
down, show me when they capitulate,
because that is more likely to be

434
00:20:53,471 --> 00:20:54,851
some kind of meaningful low than not.

435
00:20:54,851 --> 00:20:55,661
Anja: Mm-hmm.

436
00:20:56,351 --> 00:21:01,511
Are we seeing like dumb money this
cycle as much as previous cycles?

437
00:21:01,511 --> 00:21:04,121
Or do you feel like overall, um.

438
00:21:04,796 --> 00:21:09,326
Like buyers of Bitcoin are starting
to be more savvy or is it still kind

439
00:21:09,326 --> 00:21:14,546
of the same tourists coming in and out
even though it's kind of consolidating?

440
00:21:14,546 --> 00:21:16,226
Like what, what's, what are you seeing?

441
00:21:16,346 --> 00:21:19,646
James: Yeah, um, uh, it's a very good
question and the answer is there's

442
00:21:19,646 --> 00:21:21,026
always going to be dumb money.

443
00:21:21,026 --> 00:21:23,576
So a lot of the signals I was
just describing will still occur.

444
00:21:23,936 --> 00:21:28,046
However, I would say that the average
Bitcoin holder is significantly

445
00:21:28,046 --> 00:21:29,426
more serious these days.

446
00:21:29,786 --> 00:21:34,046
And there's a few elements to this
in just about every market for all

447
00:21:34,046 --> 00:21:36,836
history, you'll often hear people
say like, retail is the dumb money.

448
00:21:37,136 --> 00:21:40,256
And historically speaking they are
retail, generally are the dumb money.

449
00:21:41,336 --> 00:21:44,216
Bitcoin is actually a little bit
different because retail, and you

450
00:21:44,216 --> 00:21:48,146
can see this as a great chart that
I've got that it shows like the 90

451
00:21:48,146 --> 00:21:52,496
day change or the 30 day change of
small balances, we call them shrimp.

452
00:21:52,616 --> 00:21:55,496
So this is looking at all the
wallets that are under one Bitcoin

453
00:21:56,156 --> 00:21:59,666
now in 2017, that was just.

454
00:22:00,266 --> 00:22:01,256
Through the roof.

455
00:22:01,316 --> 00:22:04,646
The biggest buying that we've ever
seen from retail, buying the absolute

456
00:22:04,646 --> 00:22:07,616
pico top, that's when I first bought, I
bought the absolute top of that market.

457
00:22:08,336 --> 00:22:12,146
So we saw a huge swell of people going,
oh my God, get me into this thing.

458
00:22:13,226 --> 00:22:15,866
We never saw that level of buy side hit.

459
00:22:16,046 --> 00:22:22,166
So that was at 20 k, 2017 until we got
to 2022 at the bottom of the bear market.

460
00:22:22,196 --> 00:22:27,716
When FTX blew up, we're also like 15
K, so we're below that 20 K level.

461
00:22:27,986 --> 00:22:29,906
Suddenly shrimp start buying like crazy.

462
00:22:30,536 --> 00:22:34,496
Now that period was my like
formative years in Bitcoin.

463
00:22:34,826 --> 00:22:38,996
I bought the 2017 top kind of learnt about
markets, didn't understand Bitcoin really.

464
00:22:39,176 --> 00:22:44,186
In 2018, late 2018, my shit coin
portfolio has gone from $10,000

465
00:22:44,186 --> 00:22:46,676
to 10 cents and I've gone, all
right, fuck, I did something wrong.

466
00:22:46,676 --> 00:22:47,696
I gotta go back to basics.

467
00:22:48,026 --> 00:22:51,056
And then I read the Bitcoin white
paper and I was like, ah, okay.

468
00:22:51,086 --> 00:22:51,386
Right.

469
00:22:51,596 --> 00:22:52,766
This is, now I get it.

470
00:22:52,766 --> 00:22:55,856
Bitcoin's actually the important part
and I've made all that, all those

471
00:22:55,856 --> 00:22:57,416
mistakes, but I learned about markets.

472
00:22:58,211 --> 00:23:02,831
And in that time, from 2018
till 2022, the podcast circuit

473
00:23:02,831 --> 00:23:04,481
for Bitcoin really exploded.

474
00:23:04,871 --> 00:23:07,661
Lots of people talking about it,
lots of thought leaders, lots of

475
00:23:07,661 --> 00:23:12,521
essays, lots of thinking, lots of
thinking about what Bitcoin could be.

476
00:23:12,791 --> 00:23:15,341
Mining started to get
integrated in the energy grids.

477
00:23:15,341 --> 00:23:18,821
We started seeing it like using
humanitarian environments, like it

478
00:23:18,821 --> 00:23:22,181
started to form and be like, holy shit,
this thing's really coming together.

479
00:23:22,421 --> 00:23:27,851
So the education dynamic of Bitcoin,
that is really the, the, the all

480
00:23:27,851 --> 00:23:30,911
time high of when people were the
most interested in learning about

481
00:23:30,941 --> 00:23:32,951
Bitcoin in that 20, 20, 21 period.

482
00:23:33,521 --> 00:23:38,051
So when you actually go, like, retail
is dumb money in every market, and yet

483
00:23:38,051 --> 00:23:42,911
here we are five years later and these
guys are buying the bottom, not the top.

484
00:23:43,721 --> 00:23:45,941
That is an interesting story
that is actually showing you

485
00:23:45,941 --> 00:23:46,901
that the shrimp leveled up.

486
00:23:47,291 --> 00:23:51,101
They worked out that I actually need to
buy as much as I can right here, even

487
00:23:51,101 --> 00:23:52,421
though it's scary, even though it's dead.

488
00:23:52,421 --> 00:23:54,551
Even though everyone's telling
me Bitcoin's over for a decade.

489
00:23:55,091 --> 00:23:56,141
I'm gonna step in front of this thing.

490
00:23:57,191 --> 00:23:58,841
Like literally polar opposite behavior.

491
00:23:58,961 --> 00:24:01,871
So we don't have as many
tourists this cycle.

492
00:24:02,561 --> 00:24:04,451
Um, certainly not in Bitcoin itself.

493
00:24:05,081 --> 00:24:07,901
We've got a lot more sophisticated
institutions, that's for sure.

494
00:24:08,171 --> 00:24:10,031
But also retail is actually not dumb.

495
00:24:10,391 --> 00:24:13,931
People who are in Bitcoin and
are Bitcoiners, all the dumb

496
00:24:13,931 --> 00:24:14,951
money is kind of in the shit.

497
00:24:14,981 --> 00:24:18,941
Bitcoin world trading all the meme
stocks and meme coins, and they

498
00:24:18,941 --> 00:24:20,441
got rinsed time and time again.

499
00:24:20,621 --> 00:24:22,871
People who are in Bitcoin,
like they've got the patience,

500
00:24:22,871 --> 00:24:24,401
the resolve, the resilience.

501
00:24:24,761 --> 00:24:26,531
They're kind of happy to
just stack SATs, right?

502
00:24:26,531 --> 00:24:27,431
Stay humble, stack SATs.

503
00:24:27,431 --> 00:24:29,111
And these are actually smart people.

504
00:24:29,111 --> 00:24:33,761
So we've got tourists enough to read
their signals, but more importantly,

505
00:24:33,836 --> 00:24:37,271
there's a big pool of people who really
know what they own and why they own it.

506
00:24:37,271 --> 00:24:38,561
And that's, that's pretty cool.

507
00:24:39,222 --> 00:24:43,842
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secure your Bitcoin Australia's

508
00:24:43,842 --> 00:24:45,432
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509
00:24:45,582 --> 00:24:50,022
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devices, nodes, and backup solutions?

510
00:24:50,322 --> 00:24:55,347
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apparel, visit shop bitcoin.com au.

511
00:24:59,206 --> 00:25:02,626
Anja: Yeah, I know quite a few
people now that are transitioning

512
00:25:02,686 --> 00:25:07,816
and wanting to sell their shitcoin
portfolios and move it into Bitcoin.

513
00:25:08,206 --> 00:25:11,326
But again, there's still that
sort of behavior where they're

514
00:25:11,326 --> 00:25:12,736
trying to time the market.

515
00:25:12,736 --> 00:25:15,166
They think, oh, maybe if I hold
towards the end of the year

516
00:25:15,346 --> 00:25:16,846
it'll go up and it's gone down.

517
00:25:17,776 --> 00:25:18,946
So yeah, totally.

518
00:25:18,946 --> 00:25:23,926
It's interesting, like I think people
are getting smarter, um, but that's

519
00:25:23,926 --> 00:25:29,506
just my impression at least of like the
people who I've seen starting to invest

520
00:25:29,506 --> 00:25:35,326
in Bitcoin and they're not trying to
trade, they're trying to really hold, um,

521
00:25:36,196 --> 00:25:37,271
James: use as a savings account.

522
00:25:37,516 --> 00:25:37,936
That's how I

523
00:25:37,936 --> 00:25:38,146
Anja: view it.

524
00:25:38,146 --> 00:25:38,386
Yeah.

525
00:25:38,866 --> 00:25:41,926
I wanna go back to something you
said 'cause it was really interesting

526
00:25:41,986 --> 00:25:43,846
and I wanna dig a little bit deeper.

527
00:25:43,846 --> 00:25:47,896
So, at the start of the conversation,
you said that, you know, on chain

528
00:25:47,896 --> 00:25:51,046
you can tell ETFs and institutions.

529
00:25:51,781 --> 00:25:53,161
Who are buying.

530
00:25:53,221 --> 00:25:57,241
Um, but then you've also mentioned
something that you believe

531
00:25:57,241 --> 00:26:01,111
there's nation states also buying,
but we don't know that yet.

532
00:26:01,111 --> 00:26:05,131
And I know people like Prince Philip
of Serbia has mentioned that, you

533
00:26:05,131 --> 00:26:09,571
know, there's definitely nation states
that are buying on the down low.

534
00:26:10,081 --> 00:26:12,481
At what point do you think will.

535
00:26:12,556 --> 00:26:13,036
Know that.

536
00:26:13,996 --> 00:26:17,326
James: Oh, anyone, anyone's guess
because, and this is another thing,

537
00:26:17,326 --> 00:26:19,846
like over the years, Bitcoiners
have talked about the game theory.

538
00:26:20,176 --> 00:26:22,726
And the game theory is if you're a nation
state, you're buying, you actually don't

539
00:26:22,726 --> 00:26:26,116
wanna tell anyone because you want to
fill your position before that happens.

540
00:26:26,566 --> 00:26:27,976
Um, and again, that is speculation.

541
00:26:28,036 --> 00:26:30,646
So, um, when we talk about the
on chain side of the world, we

542
00:26:30,646 --> 00:26:34,366
can see existing holders, um,
we can't see who they're right.

543
00:26:34,396 --> 00:26:37,276
Um, and, and I, I strongly
encourage people, don't worry

544
00:26:37,276 --> 00:26:40,186
about whales, don't worry about
trying to like track big holders.

545
00:26:40,606 --> 00:26:42,436
You're really just looking
at aggregate behavior.

546
00:26:42,826 --> 00:26:46,876
Um, uh, primarily the main actual
tool that I use to track holders

547
00:26:46,876 --> 00:26:47,986
is how long they've held it for.

548
00:26:48,466 --> 00:26:51,196
Because statistically speaking, the
longer a coin has been held, the

549
00:26:51,196 --> 00:26:52,546
more likely it's gonna stay held.

550
00:26:52,966 --> 00:26:55,756
Uh, so we generally look at like,
who's held their coins for two

551
00:26:55,756 --> 00:26:57,046
years, three years, five years?

552
00:26:57,046 --> 00:27:01,276
Show me those guys because they all
generally start spending and selling

553
00:27:01,276 --> 00:27:03,526
their coins in the late stage bull.

554
00:27:04,126 --> 00:27:06,316
Now this is what's so interesting
about this current market

555
00:27:06,316 --> 00:27:09,466
structure, because right now
that is exactly what's happening.

556
00:27:10,171 --> 00:27:13,651
The bear case is that we are
currently seeing sell side that

557
00:27:13,651 --> 00:27:17,641
would've killed, buried and just
incinerated every bull of the past.

558
00:27:18,481 --> 00:27:20,311
And yet we're going sideways, not down.

559
00:27:20,611 --> 00:27:23,791
And this is why I just have to look
at this and go, 'cause every sold

560
00:27:23,791 --> 00:27:25,621
Bitcoin is a bought Bitcoin, right?

561
00:27:25,651 --> 00:27:27,661
Newton's third law, equal
and opposite forces.

562
00:27:28,321 --> 00:27:32,131
There is a huge pool of
buyers, huge pool of buyers.

563
00:27:32,791 --> 00:27:34,141
That is the interesting part.

564
00:27:34,141 --> 00:27:35,131
We don't know who they are.

565
00:27:35,341 --> 00:27:40,081
We'll find out eventually, but they're
bringing tens to hundreds of billions

566
00:27:40,081 --> 00:27:41,671
of dollars worth of capital to buy.

567
00:27:42,421 --> 00:27:44,941
And the market's just not going
down, even if it goes down.

568
00:27:44,941 --> 00:27:48,481
By the way, this concept still
makes sense because we haven't

569
00:27:48,481 --> 00:27:50,071
gone down given the sell side.

570
00:27:50,071 --> 00:27:51,331
That's already happened.

571
00:27:51,541 --> 00:27:53,881
So it's a fascinating dynamic.

572
00:27:53,911 --> 00:27:57,181
Um, I don't, honestly, I spend all
day in the data analyzing this and I

573
00:27:57,181 --> 00:28:01,261
don't have a, uh, a thesis on who the
buyers are that I'm satisfied with.

574
00:28:01,591 --> 00:28:04,471
Uh, but in all I know is that
they're big, they're patient, and

575
00:28:04,471 --> 00:28:05,521
they have to be sophisticated.

576
00:28:05,521 --> 00:28:06,511
That's the only way that works.

577
00:28:07,006 --> 00:28:07,396
Anja: Yeah.

578
00:28:07,666 --> 00:28:13,756
Can you tell geography, like from on chain
data, like where the buyers are located?

579
00:28:13,756 --> 00:28:14,386
James: Not easily.

580
00:28:14,386 --> 00:28:14,446
Yeah.

581
00:28:14,776 --> 00:28:15,466
Not easily.

582
00:28:15,466 --> 00:28:19,936
And the main reason is that, um,
you, I mean, in theory you could, by

583
00:28:19,936 --> 00:28:24,346
looking at like time zones when the
coins are moved, you could potentially

584
00:28:24,346 --> 00:28:27,766
do like some really deep, dark
work, trying to track like metadata.

585
00:28:28,126 --> 00:28:32,236
But it's, that's a whole, that's
like forensics type level, um, and

586
00:28:32,236 --> 00:28:33,796
really very challenging to scale.

587
00:28:33,796 --> 00:28:36,766
So, and honestly, I don't think
you need to, I think you just look

588
00:28:36,766 --> 00:28:38,296
at like the general flow of funds.

589
00:28:38,296 --> 00:28:39,136
How long have people held it?

590
00:28:39,496 --> 00:28:41,746
If he happens to be German or
he happens to be American or he

591
00:28:41,746 --> 00:28:44,506
happens to be Australian and they
just hold for that long, who cares?

592
00:28:44,506 --> 00:28:46,786
They all, they're all Bitcoiners
and you know, they're kind

593
00:28:46,786 --> 00:28:47,686
of the same holding pattern.

594
00:28:48,886 --> 00:28:53,386
Anja: My very unscientific hypothesis
would be like, for example, when you look

595
00:28:53,386 --> 00:28:59,986
at the hash rate, um, heat map, it looks
like us, China, and Russia are really like

596
00:28:59,986 --> 00:29:02,146
the three kind of leading superpowers.

597
00:29:02,146 --> 00:29:02,716
And I wonder if.

598
00:29:03,361 --> 00:29:08,461
Like, I would just assume it's, it's them,
um, buying the Bitcoin on the download.

599
00:29:08,461 --> 00:29:10,801
But who knows, like maybe
like the odd, small, it

600
00:29:10,801 --> 00:29:11,371
James: makes sense.

601
00:29:11,371 --> 00:29:11,701
And, and

602
00:29:12,121 --> 00:29:12,361
Anja: yeah.

603
00:29:13,081 --> 00:29:13,531
James: Yeah.

604
00:29:13,531 --> 00:29:15,721
There, there's kind of on the
sovereign level, there's, there's

605
00:29:15,721 --> 00:29:18,541
two types of sovereigns that
this makes the most sense for.

606
00:29:18,781 --> 00:29:20,371
The really small ones, right?

607
00:29:20,371 --> 00:29:20,431
Yeah.

608
00:29:20,461 --> 00:29:24,031
Really small ones where like they
can get an outsized advantage and the

609
00:29:24,031 --> 00:29:26,371
really, really big ones where they're
like, this is national security,

610
00:29:26,611 --> 00:29:27,811
they're the two that really matter.

611
00:29:27,991 --> 00:29:30,661
Um, I don't think we're gonna see
anything coming outta Europe because

612
00:29:30,781 --> 00:29:33,841
like, it's just, you know, they,
they regulate themselves out of

613
00:29:33,841 --> 00:29:35,611
existence as a, as a business model.

614
00:29:35,851 --> 00:29:38,401
Um, so I don't see them making
any of these moves anytime soon.

615
00:29:38,641 --> 00:29:41,131
Um, I don't see Australia making
any of these moves anytime soon.

616
00:29:41,131 --> 00:29:44,731
It's gonna be your small countries that
have an outsized advantage and the big

617
00:29:44,731 --> 00:29:46,141
ones that need to maintain dominance.

618
00:29:46,351 --> 00:29:47,251
That's really how I see it.

619
00:29:47,971 --> 00:29:48,391
Anja: Hmm.

620
00:29:49,231 --> 00:29:49,711
Yeah.

621
00:29:50,191 --> 00:29:51,001
Interesting.

622
00:29:51,181 --> 00:29:52,111
Very interesting.

623
00:29:52,741 --> 00:29:53,161
Um,

624
00:29:53,221 --> 00:29:53,431
James: very,

625
00:29:53,431 --> 00:29:57,661
Anja: but I'll complete new, like I
don't look at on chain data at all.

626
00:29:57,751 --> 00:29:59,821
And if I wanted to start.

627
00:30:00,376 --> 00:30:01,036
Doing that?

628
00:30:01,036 --> 00:30:01,936
Where would I begin?

629
00:30:04,336 --> 00:30:06,046
James: Uh, well, I mean, we've
got every chart under the

630
00:30:06,046 --> 00:30:07,636
sun on, uh, check on chain.

631
00:30:07,636 --> 00:30:11,206
But look, the, the, the general framework
is you have to ask yourself why you

632
00:30:11,206 --> 00:30:14,746
would wanna look at data, because
for some people, and honestly, um,

633
00:30:14,806 --> 00:30:18,616
even with some of the most advanced
models in the world, it is extremely

634
00:30:18,616 --> 00:30:22,426
hard to beat daily DCA, extremely
difficult to just like daily DCA.

635
00:30:23,146 --> 00:30:24,526
It's just a tried and trusted method.

636
00:30:24,616 --> 00:30:26,956
Works all the time, weekly,
monthly, whatever it is, just like

637
00:30:26,956 --> 00:30:28,186
regular dollar cost averaging.

638
00:30:28,516 --> 00:30:30,436
Um, the smaller your granularity.

639
00:30:30,436 --> 00:30:33,976
So if you're doing it daily and a lot
of platforms do service daily, uh, it's

640
00:30:33,976 --> 00:30:35,626
just really hard to beat truthfully.

641
00:30:36,106 --> 00:30:37,516
Um, so that's kind of the first point.

642
00:30:38,176 --> 00:30:40,366
The reason that, I mean,
I, I, I love data, right?

643
00:30:40,366 --> 00:30:44,776
I, I kind of studied this stuff,
but the reason why I use it is

644
00:30:44,866 --> 00:30:47,146
to just know what's going on.

645
00:30:47,356 --> 00:30:52,426
So I'm a big advocate for,
um, the volatility is tough.

646
00:30:52,426 --> 00:30:55,721
And imagine right now we went
to 80 k our, or we go to one 50.

647
00:30:56,656 --> 00:30:59,956
In both of those two scenarios,
completely di different directions.

648
00:31:00,526 --> 00:31:03,796
Every person looking at the price chart,
your uncertainty level is gonna go up.

649
00:31:04,246 --> 00:31:06,886
If we go to 80 K, you're like, holy
shit, what happened If we go to 150 K?

650
00:31:06,886 --> 00:31:07,876
You go, whoa, what happened?

651
00:31:08,686 --> 00:31:13,336
My, the way I use data is to
help people think through those

652
00:31:13,336 --> 00:31:15,766
scenarios, why they might happen.

653
00:31:16,036 --> 00:31:17,356
Why would we go to 80 k?

654
00:31:17,356 --> 00:31:20,596
Because I can see all of this selling,
I can see all these people staying

655
00:31:20,596 --> 00:31:22,456
at, you know, it's just overwhelming.

656
00:31:22,966 --> 00:31:26,746
Profit taking is bigger than we've seen
in the past compared to past cycles.

657
00:31:26,956 --> 00:31:30,466
Oh look, we've now got 50% of
all the buyers are underwater

658
00:31:30,466 --> 00:31:31,456
starting to get worse.

659
00:31:32,236 --> 00:31:36,616
You can profile and help people
understand, if we go from 126

660
00:31:36,616 --> 00:31:38,626
down to 80, why did that happen?

661
00:31:38,956 --> 00:31:43,306
So that when we go to 80, 86 K, and that
doesn't mean that we will, but if we

662
00:31:43,306 --> 00:31:48,136
do, every single one of my subscribers
is gonna say, yeah, makes sense.

663
00:31:48,166 --> 00:31:51,016
Like, like, I don't like that
we're at 80 5K or 80 k, but

664
00:31:51,346 --> 00:31:52,516
I can kind of see it coming.

665
00:31:53,056 --> 00:31:54,646
And likewise, if we go to one 50.

666
00:31:55,546 --> 00:31:59,926
If we go to one 50 and stop and
top out there, that is also a very

667
00:31:59,926 --> 00:32:03,016
likely zone where we're gonna set
a huge amount of sell side come

668
00:32:03,016 --> 00:32:04,156
in and oversaturate the market.

669
00:32:04,186 --> 00:32:08,056
So just helping people think
through the scenarios in advance.

670
00:32:08,326 --> 00:32:12,106
And at the end of the day, the
only constant in markets is people.

671
00:32:12,496 --> 00:32:16,066
And the a hundred thousand year old
hardware that sits between our ears, the

672
00:32:16,066 --> 00:32:21,856
emotions that we feel during fomo, fear,
greed, all that, it's never gonna change.

673
00:32:22,546 --> 00:32:25,606
We are gonna get to a threshold at some
point to the upside, where people are just

674
00:32:25,726 --> 00:32:29,446
way too profitable and they're gonna cash
out and they're gonna top the market out.

675
00:32:29,806 --> 00:32:34,276
And there's also gonna be a point in
time where we are so down and so fearful

676
00:32:34,666 --> 00:32:36,136
that there are no weak weekends left.

677
00:32:36,286 --> 00:32:38,836
The only people who remain
are the hardcore HODs.

678
00:32:39,046 --> 00:32:42,976
So I try to just map out where are
those inflection points ahead of time.

679
00:32:43,186 --> 00:32:47,416
So when we get there, we go to 80 K,
the average guy is gonna be panicking.

680
00:32:47,836 --> 00:32:50,546
I'm gonna be stacking SAPs like
crazy because I've thought through

681
00:32:50,836 --> 00:32:54,046
that scenario ahead of time and
I know exactly what I'm gonna do.

682
00:32:55,066 --> 00:32:55,426
Anja: Yeah.

683
00:32:55,456 --> 00:32:58,846
So it's kind of like, if I'm hearing
it correctly, the benefit of of,

684
00:32:58,846 --> 00:33:03,076
of kind of following this is one is
to alleviate any anxiety you might

685
00:33:03,076 --> 00:33:04,306
have around not knowing Correct.

686
00:33:04,366 --> 00:33:06,016
Why certain things are happening.

687
00:33:06,256 --> 00:33:10,846
And the second would be essentially,
you know, if you do expect a potential

688
00:33:10,846 --> 00:33:13,876
scenario where there's a drawback,
you can actually plan for buying more.

689
00:33:13,966 --> 00:33:14,356
James: Totally.

690
00:33:14,416 --> 00:33:16,006
And, and not be afraid when it happens.

691
00:33:16,006 --> 00:33:17,206
Never be a deer in the headlights.

692
00:33:17,206 --> 00:33:19,606
But also I think there's just,
you know, I mean, I don't know

693
00:33:19,606 --> 00:33:22,786
about you, but I literally look
at Bitcoin stuff every single day.

694
00:33:22,906 --> 00:33:25,306
Could be a podcast, could be
the price, could be charts.

695
00:33:25,696 --> 00:33:28,396
I'm doing Bitcoin things
literally every single day.

696
00:33:29,266 --> 00:33:29,536
Anja: Yeah.

697
00:33:29,596 --> 00:33:31,966
James: It just is kind of interesting
to just know what's going on.

698
00:33:32,086 --> 00:33:32,566
You know what I mean?

699
00:33:32,716 --> 00:33:36,526
It's watching my Bitcoin news, it just
happens to be in the data and it's like,

700
00:33:36,796 --> 00:33:40,666
you know, I'm just exploring what's going
on because it's kind of interesting to me.

701
00:33:40,966 --> 00:33:43,966
Um, it's really interesting that
suddenly we've got options and futures

702
00:33:43,966 --> 00:33:46,996
of this big, and, you know, the ETFs
are the most successful in the world.

703
00:33:46,996 --> 00:33:51,256
Like just understanding all the incentives
and bits and pieces just gives me a

704
00:33:51,256 --> 00:33:53,806
better understanding of how the world
works, how the bitcoin world works.

705
00:33:54,526 --> 00:33:57,106
You know, I think for a lot of
people, certainly for me, I mean,

706
00:33:57,106 --> 00:33:58,396
Bitcoin is like my life savings.

707
00:33:58,426 --> 00:34:01,216
So like, do I wanna know what my
life savings are doing day to day?

708
00:34:01,726 --> 00:34:06,046
Probably, you know, that's
just understanding is actually

709
00:34:06,046 --> 00:34:07,006
a really big motivator.

710
00:34:07,756 --> 00:34:09,376
Anja: Yeah, absolutely.

711
00:34:09,436 --> 00:34:12,916
I, and I do also follow Bitcoin
things every day, and sometimes I

712
00:34:12,916 --> 00:34:14,806
get distracted by community stuff.

713
00:34:14,806 --> 00:34:21,286
Like, for example, recently Sydney has
been having a two week knots versus core

714
00:34:21,286 --> 00:34:25,396
war, which is just, it's just been going

715
00:34:25,666 --> 00:34:27,976
James: across there.

716
00:34:27,976 --> 00:34:30,976
There couldn't be a bigger nothing
burger or a battle of the nerds

717
00:34:30,976 --> 00:34:32,206
anywhere in the world, ever.

718
00:34:32,236 --> 00:34:35,146
It's just, it's un no one cares.

719
00:34:35,146 --> 00:34:38,596
And, and the thing is about that debate,
even if it was important, which frankly

720
00:34:38,596 --> 00:34:40,546
it isn't, even if it was important.

721
00:34:41,056 --> 00:34:42,136
They've lost the audience.

722
00:34:42,256 --> 00:34:44,086
Both sides yelling at each other.

723
00:34:44,146 --> 00:34:45,286
No one cares anymore.

724
00:34:45,346 --> 00:34:46,246
Go and fight in the corner.

725
00:34:46,246 --> 00:34:47,266
Please get your room.

726
00:34:47,536 --> 00:34:48,706
I don't wanna hear it anymore.

727
00:34:49,006 --> 00:34:49,816
No one cares.

728
00:34:49,816 --> 00:34:50,866
You've bought us all to death.

729
00:34:51,196 --> 00:34:52,636
We're not gonna make any progress on this.

730
00:34:52,636 --> 00:34:55,816
We'll be arguing about this in 2100
when the block reward runs out.

731
00:34:55,966 --> 00:34:56,386
Move on.

732
00:34:57,376 --> 00:35:01,126
Anja: Is it as bad as the block
size wars, or is it like less?

733
00:35:01,126 --> 00:35:01,931
Oh, God, God,

734
00:35:02,026 --> 00:35:02,296
James: God.

735
00:35:02,596 --> 00:35:03,406
Oh, it's not even close.

736
00:35:03,976 --> 00:35:05,206
Just, no, it's, it's not even remote.

737
00:35:05,206 --> 00:35:05,596
We've seen this

738
00:35:05,596 --> 00:35:09,496
Anja: before and everyone's like,
okay, it's a nothing burger.

739
00:35:09,556 --> 00:35:09,796
Yep.

740
00:35:10,996 --> 00:35:12,196
James: It's a total nothing burger.

741
00:35:12,196 --> 00:35:13,396
It changes absolutely nothing.

742
00:35:13,396 --> 00:35:16,546
And this is the thing, like, you know,
my, my general view, I'm a pragmatist.

743
00:35:16,576 --> 00:35:18,436
I just look at things from a
very practical perspective.

744
00:35:19,516 --> 00:35:22,636
The JPEGs on the chain don't
actually change anything.

745
00:35:22,636 --> 00:35:25,846
Like, sure it's not ideal, but
also permissionless system.

746
00:35:26,146 --> 00:35:30,586
There, there is no technological way,
and they can argue and complain that we

747
00:35:30,586 --> 00:35:33,796
should build fences and close windows
and use whatever analogy they want.

748
00:35:33,796 --> 00:35:34,576
It's like, that's fine.

749
00:35:35,836 --> 00:35:36,371
You will never stop.

750
00:35:37,096 --> 00:35:41,266
So therefore you can spend the
next 100 years talking about how

751
00:35:41,266 --> 00:35:43,606
you're gonna stop it and never
actually do anything about it.

752
00:35:43,606 --> 00:35:46,906
So as a pragmatist, I'm like,
what are you wasting our time for?

753
00:35:47,296 --> 00:35:49,306
Because there is no solution.

754
00:35:49,306 --> 00:35:50,806
And then they do a hard fork proposal.

755
00:35:50,806 --> 00:35:51,916
It's say, or a soft walk proposal.

756
00:35:51,916 --> 00:35:53,746
It's like, guys, this
is ridiculous, insane.

757
00:35:54,076 --> 00:35:56,266
Nothing about this is a good idea.

758
00:35:57,286 --> 00:35:57,856
Just let it go.

759
00:35:58,546 --> 00:35:58,906
Let it go.

760
00:35:59,056 --> 00:36:03,136
Because like there's no ground
to be made in any of this.

761
00:36:03,136 --> 00:36:04,576
We're just been fighting
about this forever.

762
00:36:04,996 --> 00:36:06,016
You're wasting all that time.

763
00:36:07,186 --> 00:36:07,576
Anja: Yeah.

764
00:36:07,696 --> 00:36:07,996
Yeah.

765
00:36:08,086 --> 00:36:11,266
I mean, I don't understand the
technical details enough to have an

766
00:36:11,266 --> 00:36:14,776
opinion on it, but it's interesting
to listen to both sides nonetheless.

767
00:36:14,835 --> 00:36:21,105
Um, but yeah, I wanted to ask you a little
bit more about the on chain analytics.

768
00:36:21,105 --> 00:36:23,145
I think if I heard you correctly.

769
00:36:23,940 --> 00:36:28,230
Is it the best strategy to DCA
daily rather than weekly or monthly?

770
00:36:28,410 --> 00:36:32,340
James: Uh, if you do, so basically
the, the finer your resolution if you

771
00:36:32,340 --> 00:36:36,000
do monthly, you might buy on the first
of the month, for example, and then we

772
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,000
have a big dip and then by the end of
the month we might be at the same price.

773
00:36:40,050 --> 00:36:43,230
But you kind of just, the, the
odds that you are gonna time miss

774
00:36:43,230 --> 00:36:45,240
time, that volatility is higher.

775
00:36:45,750 --> 00:36:48,630
If you do weekly, you'll
probably get a nice even price.

776
00:36:48,630 --> 00:36:52,620
If you do daily, you literally get the
most, even price you can, in theory,

777
00:36:52,620 --> 00:36:56,160
the one second, DCA is the right way
to do it, but it's ridiculous because

778
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:57,240
it doesn't make sense too small.

779
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,160
So don't overthink it.

780
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,620
But like it's the same
as if you do like yearly.

781
00:37:01,890 --> 00:37:05,040
If you do a yearly DCA, you're probably
gonna miss a lot of the opportunities.

782
00:37:05,550 --> 00:37:10,950
Monthly, weekly daily's kind of the,
the best, um, because it is truly the

783
00:37:10,950 --> 00:37:12,660
most average price you can possibly get.

784
00:37:12,690 --> 00:37:16,560
But I did run the statistics, um,
to try and understand like what

785
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,000
is the best time of the best day.

786
00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:21,990
The, I'll try and get my, I'm
pretty sure it's on, I know

787
00:37:21,990 --> 00:37:23,820
Australian, um, Eastern time.

788
00:37:24,090 --> 00:37:24,580
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

789
00:37:24,580 --> 00:37:25,935
No, I've, I've done the STAs 1130

790
00:37:26,850 --> 00:37:26,940
Anja: on a Friday night

791
00:37:28,350 --> 00:37:28,740
James: 11.

792
00:37:28,740 --> 00:37:31,620
So 1130 on a Friday
night is the worst time.

793
00:37:31,620 --> 00:37:31,680
Yeah.

794
00:37:32,250 --> 00:37:34,890
So therefore you actually
wanna buy just after midnight.

795
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:39,450
So you want to buy just after midnight
on the Saturday morning, because

796
00:37:39,450 --> 00:37:42,660
then you're gonna get after the
worst time, statistically speaking.

797
00:37:43,890 --> 00:37:44,160
Anja: Yeah.

798
00:37:44,370 --> 00:37:45,150
Nice, nice.

799
00:37:45,150 --> 00:37:48,660
I heard you say that and you just
like stuck in, stuck with me.

800
00:37:49,530 --> 00:37:49,980
Um,

801
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:51,870
James: and then daylight
savings comes along and I

802
00:37:51,870 --> 00:37:52,860
don't know what time it is now.

803
00:37:53,325 --> 00:37:53,615
Anja: Yeah.

804
00:37:54,175 --> 00:37:55,175
I don't know either.

805
00:37:56,335 --> 00:37:57,180
I just, yeah.

806
00:37:57,185 --> 00:37:57,335
Plus,

807
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:58,470
James: plus or minus an hour.

808
00:37:58,650 --> 00:37:58,950
Anja: Yep.

809
00:37:58,950 --> 00:38:04,680
So I think as a new step number one,
I'll subscribe to your newsletter.

810
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:05,820
I haven't done that yet.

811
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:10,800
Um, 'cause I just, yeah, I just sometimes
get intimidated by certain things and I

812
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,740
was like, 'cause there's so many different
rabbit holes to go down and you just

813
00:38:13,740 --> 00:38:16,590
don't know which thread to follow next.

814
00:38:17,385 --> 00:38:21,735
But I think, yeah, I, I read part of
the report that you've recently done

815
00:38:21,735 --> 00:38:23,745
with Unchained, the 62 page report.

816
00:38:23,955 --> 00:38:26,385
I read the executive summary
and understood that really well.

817
00:38:26,385 --> 00:38:29,895
And then I started reading down and I,
I got to a section, I was like, whoa,

818
00:38:29,895 --> 00:38:31,365
I have no idea what he's talking about.

819
00:38:31,365 --> 00:38:35,565
So JP was like, you need to
read it, read it a few times.

820
00:38:35,655 --> 00:38:39,165
It's really like intricate and you
need to like go back and forth to

821
00:38:39,165 --> 00:38:41,175
understand things at a deeper level.

822
00:38:41,175 --> 00:38:43,665
So I'm gonna do that
'cause I promised I would.

823
00:38:43,935 --> 00:38:49,545
Um, but what would be kind of like, what
would be a natural progression in the

824
00:38:49,545 --> 00:38:55,395
journey of someone who wants to learn
more about like the on chain world.

825
00:38:56,250 --> 00:38:57,330
You might like start, you know?

826
00:38:57,330 --> 00:38:57,570
Yeah.

827
00:38:57,570 --> 00:39:01,350
I mean there's, and subscribe
and just read and absorb,

828
00:39:01,350 --> 00:39:02,550
but how would you level up

829
00:39:02,610 --> 00:39:03,180
James: for sure.

830
00:39:03,180 --> 00:39:03,480
Yeah.

831
00:39:03,485 --> 00:39:07,770
I, I think, look, at the end of the
day, it's um, it is full of jargon

832
00:39:07,950 --> 00:39:11,610
and it is a strange data set that
we don't have for anything else.

833
00:39:11,610 --> 00:39:15,960
Like, I actually feel blind when I
look at the gold market or the equity

834
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,490
market because I don't have my tools.

835
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,560
I can't see transparently what's going on.

836
00:39:19,620 --> 00:39:23,490
So the way that I think about
on chain data, it's like sitting

837
00:39:23,490 --> 00:39:24,870
in a game of Texas Holden Poker.

838
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,090
Imagine you could see.

839
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,360
Like everyone's cards were
holographic so you can see what

840
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:31,740
everyone else is holding, right?

841
00:39:31,740 --> 00:39:33,840
They might be a little bit blurry,
but you can kind of see the outline.

842
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,750
These holding looks like a
heart that looks like a queen.

843
00:39:37,170 --> 00:39:40,470
You can't see the deck, so you
can't see what comes up next.

844
00:39:40,890 --> 00:39:41,850
And that's what I like.

845
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,990
You can't predict the future, but
what you can see is, I know that guy's

846
00:39:45,990 --> 00:39:48,750
bluffing and it could just be you're not
even a player, you're just an observer.

847
00:39:48,870 --> 00:39:49,890
You can see everyone's cards.

848
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:51,180
I know that guy's bluffing.

849
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:56,130
I know that guy's, um, uh, played
and won the last four hands and he

850
00:39:56,130 --> 00:39:57,360
looks like he's gonna play this one.

851
00:39:57,870 --> 00:40:00,870
Just having that inside of like x-ray
vision of what everyone else is doing.

852
00:40:01,530 --> 00:40:04,020
So, um, are they taking profit?

853
00:40:04,470 --> 00:40:06,060
Are people in a lot of profit?

854
00:40:06,210 --> 00:40:08,310
Are they locking them in at losses?

855
00:40:08,310 --> 00:40:12,990
Like looking for those incentives is
really what, it's human psychology.

856
00:40:13,020 --> 00:40:15,570
What are people doing and what's
their incentives and drivers?

857
00:40:16,050 --> 00:40:19,800
Um, and really the first step,
there's a, there's one metric that

858
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,615
is the backbone of all of, it's the
most important metric in my opinion.

859
00:40:22,615 --> 00:40:24,690
It's the most important metric in Bitcoin.

860
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,360
And it actually recently
hit an important milestone.

861
00:40:27,450 --> 00:40:30,570
So I'll talk about this 'cause this
should, this has been the hook for me.

862
00:40:30,660 --> 00:40:33,540
It was the hook for most of the
analysts that I've worked with.

863
00:40:33,540 --> 00:40:37,620
They're like, ah, the
realized cap was that unlock.

864
00:40:37,620 --> 00:40:40,680
So the realized cap, it's
different to the market cap.

865
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:41,880
The market cap.

866
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:46,080
We take the entire Bitcoin supply and
we compare it to the current price.

867
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:47,430
And we say that is the market cap.

868
00:40:48,030 --> 00:40:50,880
But the reality is that not
every coin transacts every day.

869
00:40:51,090 --> 00:40:52,050
A lot of coins are lost.

870
00:40:52,170 --> 00:40:55,320
Some are hod, some are old, some
are new, some are in exchanges.

871
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,040
It doesn't really tell us an
import like the market cap.

872
00:40:59,070 --> 00:41:00,120
Okay, it's 2 trillion.

873
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:05,610
But like, is it the realized cap is a,
uh, a metric that every single coin in

874
00:41:05,610 --> 00:41:08,100
the supply we price when it last moved.

875
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:10,770
So Satoshi's coins are worth zero.

876
00:41:10,830 --> 00:41:13,860
He's got a 1.1 million of them,
but they have a price of zero.

877
00:41:13,890 --> 00:41:15,090
'cause there was no
price when he mined 'em.

878
00:41:15,870 --> 00:41:20,040
Uh, a miner may have mined it back
when it was $15, but lost his keys.

879
00:41:20,250 --> 00:41:21,540
Those are priced at $15.

880
00:41:22,365 --> 00:41:26,985
The, so the, the, the, um, ut XOs that
I bought back in 2019 are still saved

881
00:41:26,985 --> 00:41:31,575
at that, whatever it was, $10,000 or
$12,000, $8,000, they're saved there.

882
00:41:32,595 --> 00:41:36,105
The thing that's really interesting
about this, back in 2019,

883
00:41:36,105 --> 00:41:37,305
let's say I bought one Bitcoin.

884
00:41:38,025 --> 00:41:42,255
Um, if I bought one Bitcoin for
$10,000, I invested $10,000.

885
00:41:42,285 --> 00:41:43,815
That's my, like input money.

886
00:41:44,295 --> 00:41:47,535
And that's, for me, that's
my proof of work as a human.

887
00:41:47,625 --> 00:41:51,345
I literally worked in a job earned 10
grand and I bought one Bitcoin with it.

888
00:41:52,065 --> 00:41:56,535
If I then sell that Bitcoin, um,
today at a hundred grand, I've

889
00:41:56,535 --> 00:42:01,725
locked in a $90,000 profit, but
the buyer had to bring in $90,000.

890
00:42:02,235 --> 00:42:07,215
So by valuing every coin at the time when
it last moved, we achieved two things.

891
00:42:07,635 --> 00:42:13,815
One, it actually captures how much wealth
Bitcoiners have saved in Bitcoin and this

892
00:42:13,815 --> 00:42:16,005
metric this year, like two months ago.

893
00:42:16,305 --> 00:42:18,195
Um, and that'll be in that
report you were referring to?

894
00:42:18,720 --> 00:42:19,890
Crossed a trillion dollars.

895
00:42:20,310 --> 00:42:23,700
So whenever you have somebody tell you,
oh, Bitcoin's worthless, there's no

896
00:42:23,700 --> 00:42:28,830
intrinsic value, no one trusts it, you can
say, well, I can see right here measurably

897
00:42:29,220 --> 00:42:33,030
that Bitcoiners have trusted this thing
with a trillion dollars of our savings, a

898
00:42:33,030 --> 00:42:35,430
trillion dollars of our hard earned money.

899
00:42:35,430 --> 00:42:38,070
We have invested in this thing
and we still hold it today.

900
00:42:38,460 --> 00:42:39,330
So that's the first one.

901
00:42:39,930 --> 00:42:42,870
But then we can see how much profit
are people in because if you can,

902
00:42:42,870 --> 00:42:47,070
if those coins I bought in 2019,
the cost basis is 10 K, so I now

903
00:42:47,070 --> 00:42:49,680
know that I'm up $90,000 in profit.

904
00:42:49,710 --> 00:42:50,730
That's my incentive.

905
00:42:51,150 --> 00:42:54,030
If that goes up more and more
and more, my incentive becomes,

906
00:42:54,690 --> 00:42:55,830
I can probably buy the house now.

907
00:42:55,830 --> 00:42:59,280
Right now I can actually like cash out
and, and do something my with my life.

908
00:42:59,910 --> 00:43:03,990
And if you look at that across the whole
market, we can see where people's cost

909
00:43:03,990 --> 00:43:07,590
basis are, where the price would have
to go to make people feel really good.

910
00:43:07,860 --> 00:43:09,750
Where do we have to go for
people to feel really bad?

911
00:43:10,410 --> 00:43:12,300
Um, how much money have
people saved in this thing?

912
00:43:12,300 --> 00:43:13,590
How much profit are they taking?

913
00:43:13,590 --> 00:43:14,400
How much profit are they?

914
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,020
How much losses are they taking off?

915
00:43:16,350 --> 00:43:16,650
So.

916
00:43:17,220 --> 00:43:20,850
It's this really amazing idea
where you can just see where

917
00:43:20,850 --> 00:43:21,960
everyone's incentives are.

918
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:27,960
And that metric alone, like the, the raw
savings power, there's about a trillion

919
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,160
dollars that Bitcoins have invested.

920
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,090
And at the market caps 2.3 trillion,
that means that bitcoins are sitting on

921
00:43:33,090 --> 00:43:36,840
$1.3 trillion worth of unrealized profit.

922
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,510
And I love this 'cause
Berkshire Hathaway, right?

923
00:43:39,570 --> 00:43:43,050
Um, uh, Warren Buffet has said that,
uh, Bitcoin is rat poison squared.

924
00:43:43,050 --> 00:43:45,570
I'm like, well sir, your market
cap is a trillion dollars.

925
00:43:45,810 --> 00:43:48,630
Bitcoin has invested a trillion
dollars and we're up 1.3.

926
00:43:48,630 --> 00:43:49,530
So how does that feel?

927
00:43:49,740 --> 00:43:49,920
Right?

928
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:53,430
We've got more profit in our
system than you do in the entire

929
00:43:53,430 --> 00:43:54,450
market cap of your company.

930
00:43:55,530 --> 00:43:57,120
Anja: That is so interesting.

931
00:43:57,930 --> 00:43:58,770
That is just wild.

932
00:43:58,770 --> 00:43:59,040
Fascinating.

933
00:43:59,040 --> 00:43:59,445
I love how you

934
00:43:59,445 --> 00:44:00,240
James: explain, explain,
and that's one metric.

935
00:44:00,985 --> 00:44:01,205
Anja: Yep.

936
00:44:01,625 --> 00:44:02,045
That's

937
00:44:02,045 --> 00:44:02,405
James: just one book.

938
00:44:02,405 --> 00:44:02,445
Yep.

939
00:44:02,445 --> 00:44:03,270
That's book just one metric.

940
00:44:03,270 --> 00:44:06,330
And it's just all we're doing is showing
how much Bitcoiners have saved and

941
00:44:06,330 --> 00:44:08,970
where they saved it, and then everything
else is a knock on effect from there.

942
00:44:09,555 --> 00:44:09,915
Anja: Yeah.

943
00:44:10,305 --> 00:44:10,695
Yeah.

944
00:44:11,085 --> 00:44:11,835
That is wild.

945
00:44:11,835 --> 00:44:14,625
Like this is just really, you've,
you've hooked me and now I'm like

946
00:44:14,625 --> 00:44:18,045
interested in going down this rabbit
hole, but I wanna ask you something.

947
00:44:18,045 --> 00:44:18,405
It's cool, isn't it?

948
00:44:18,405 --> 00:44:22,875
That I, I got asked, uh, by someone
in the community and I didn't really

949
00:44:22,995 --> 00:44:26,205
like, have a solid answer for them.

950
00:44:26,655 --> 00:44:32,265
But in the case where Satoshi's coins
move, what would that do to the price

951
00:44:32,355 --> 00:44:33,075
James: they will move?

952
00:44:33,405 --> 00:44:35,025
So there's, there's another
controversial opinion.

953
00:44:35,025 --> 00:44:38,805
They will move eventually because at
some point in time when we run the,

954
00:44:38,805 --> 00:44:43,155
the human experiment for long enough,
uh, one of three things will happen.

955
00:44:43,995 --> 00:44:47,625
Satoshi will come back and move
them or his inheritance or whatever.

956
00:44:47,775 --> 00:44:53,115
I think that's an unlikely scenario
at some point in time, cryptography is

957
00:44:53,115 --> 00:44:54,885
going to break on those earlier coins.

958
00:44:54,885 --> 00:44:56,985
Could be quantum, could be
some other computing form.

959
00:44:57,165 --> 00:44:59,205
But if you run the human
experiment long enough, we will

960
00:44:59,205 --> 00:45:00,975
eventually break that cryptography.

961
00:45:00,975 --> 00:45:02,085
'cause technology keeps going.

962
00:45:02,955 --> 00:45:07,515
So those coins, if they're lost, they will
come back to market via that mechanism.

963
00:45:08,175 --> 00:45:10,245
The other way they can move is
that the community can freeze 'em.

964
00:45:10,245 --> 00:45:11,655
And I don't think that's going to happen.

965
00:45:11,685 --> 00:45:13,305
I know some people want to do that.

966
00:45:13,665 --> 00:45:16,725
Um, there's, you know, proposals and
thoughts about freezing the coins.

967
00:45:17,025 --> 00:45:19,845
Uh, I don't think that's ever
gonna pass as a pragmatist.

968
00:45:19,845 --> 00:45:20,685
I think it's ever gonna happen.

969
00:45:20,685 --> 00:45:24,945
'cause it just degrades bitcoin's,
um, uh, property rights concept.

970
00:45:25,395 --> 00:45:27,705
Um, and that's a whole topic
to itself, the quantum thing.

971
00:45:28,305 --> 00:45:33,255
Now, there's no question that the
market will panic at that point in time.

972
00:45:33,645 --> 00:45:36,765
But then at the same time,
this is inevitability.

973
00:45:36,825 --> 00:45:38,565
The market's gonna price
it in ahead of time.

974
00:45:39,285 --> 00:45:41,775
And I can't help but think,
like, I don't know about you.

975
00:45:42,495 --> 00:45:46,545
If Satoshi's coins came back to market,
let's say for example, like who's

976
00:45:46,545 --> 00:45:48,045
actually gonna develop a quantum machine?

977
00:45:48,045 --> 00:45:49,005
Let's just call it quantum.

978
00:45:49,005 --> 00:45:51,375
It could be any cryptography
breaking system.

979
00:45:51,615 --> 00:45:53,955
Uh, we don't know what the future's
gonna look like, but something like

980
00:45:53,955 --> 00:45:55,695
that, who's gonna develop that?

981
00:45:56,055 --> 00:45:57,525
It's not gonna be you or me, right?

982
00:45:57,585 --> 00:46:00,735
It's gonna be the Chinese
government, the American government,

983
00:46:01,035 --> 00:46:03,075
or a high flying text company.

984
00:46:03,885 --> 00:46:05,025
What's IBM gonna do?

985
00:46:05,085 --> 00:46:07,845
IBM breaks quantum and the first
thing they do is steal Satoshi's

986
00:46:07,845 --> 00:46:09,435
coins and mass market dump them.

987
00:46:09,435 --> 00:46:11,535
They'd be sued out of outta business.

988
00:46:12,435 --> 00:46:17,505
The, the probability that it's gonna
get collected by some like benevolent

989
00:46:17,505 --> 00:46:21,615
dictator type, I don't know about you,
but I would like, if they auction those

990
00:46:21,615 --> 00:46:23,295
coins off, I'm gonna buy some of those.

991
00:46:23,295 --> 00:46:24,495
I want some assis coins.

992
00:46:24,495 --> 00:46:25,215
That'd be hectic.

993
00:46:25,245 --> 00:46:25,905
That's awesome.

994
00:46:25,905 --> 00:46:27,165
That's like a great little souvenir.

995
00:46:27,465 --> 00:46:30,615
I would totally buy those at
whatever the going market price was.

996
00:46:30,615 --> 00:46:34,305
So I think, yeah, the market will
spasm out a little bit at the time,

997
00:46:34,965 --> 00:46:39,045
but I also just think that it's, I
think it's kind of overblown and.

998
00:46:39,465 --> 00:46:42,885
You know, if those coins come
back to market, it's kind

999
00:46:42,885 --> 00:46:43,725
of the law of the jungle.

1000
00:46:43,725 --> 00:46:45,015
It's just how these things play out.

1001
00:46:45,015 --> 00:46:48,555
So, you know, I, I kind of like the
chaos, like, let's just see what happens.

1002
00:46:49,035 --> 00:46:51,255
Speaker 2: Just love, that's
such a psychopathic answer.

1003
00:46:52,610 --> 00:46:53,100
James: Totally

1004
00:46:56,805 --> 00:46:57,220
love of fun.

1005
00:46:57,220 --> 00:47:00,855
You know, like people get caught up in
like, they want number to go up all the

1006
00:47:00,855 --> 00:47:02,925
time, but like, markets go up and down.

1007
00:47:03,105 --> 00:47:06,165
Like they never go up in a straight
line, but like, we're at a hundred

1008
00:47:06,165 --> 00:47:08,535
grand, you know, people are calling
Bitcoin debts, like, yeah, it crashed

1009
00:47:08,535 --> 00:47:09,375
to a hundred thousand dollars.

1010
00:47:09,555 --> 00:47:11,025
This was a meme years ago.

1011
00:47:11,055 --> 00:47:13,785
We're like, oh yeah, at some point
Bitcoin's gonna crash to a hundred grand.

1012
00:47:13,845 --> 00:47:17,805
Well, we're right there, right now, we're
crashing to a hundred thousand dollars.

1013
00:47:18,075 --> 00:47:21,525
And I know, and there's like,
dudes on Twitter are like, oh,

1014
00:47:21,525 --> 00:47:22,725
it's the worst store of value ever.

1015
00:47:22,725 --> 00:47:23,265
Like, it's terrible.

1016
00:47:23,265 --> 00:47:26,025
I'm like, yeah, it's, it's, you know,
it's only a hundred thousand dollars.

1017
00:47:26,025 --> 00:47:27,675
It was $10,000 five years ago.

1018
00:47:27,675 --> 00:47:29,145
What a terrible store of value.

1019
00:47:29,445 --> 00:47:32,385
Um, we, we saw Gold
recently went to 4,400.

1020
00:47:32,910 --> 00:47:35,820
And the amount of Bitcoiners who were
like, oh man, I think Bitcoin's failed.

1021
00:47:35,820 --> 00:47:38,910
Like dude, Gold's been
outperforming Bitcoin for,

1022
00:47:39,210 --> 00:47:41,190
since August through to October.

1023
00:47:41,580 --> 00:47:44,070
That window is the only
time where that's happened.

1024
00:47:44,490 --> 00:47:47,910
And by the way, Gold's been
going nowhere since I was a boy.

1025
00:47:48,090 --> 00:47:51,990
So like, you know, give the gold bugs
their three months of joy, you know,

1026
00:47:51,990 --> 00:47:53,310
they've been waiting decades for this.

1027
00:47:54,660 --> 00:47:56,400
Anja: Yeah, yeah, for sure.

1028
00:47:56,661 --> 00:47:58,311
Um, oh yes.

1029
00:47:58,551 --> 00:48:05,481
I wanted to, I mean, that concept around
the lost coins being added back to

1030
00:48:05,481 --> 00:48:07,761
the circulation is an interesting one.

1031
00:48:07,761 --> 00:48:09,621
'cause that's something
I hadn't considered.

1032
00:48:09,951 --> 00:48:12,531
Like obviously it doesn't make sense.

1033
00:48:12,561 --> 00:48:15,981
Like it's completely nonsensical
for us to ever increase.

1034
00:48:16,866 --> 00:48:18,066
The 21 million cap.

1035
00:48:18,096 --> 00:48:20,346
'cause there would just be
no consensus around that.

1036
00:48:20,346 --> 00:48:22,326
Like, I can't see that reality.

1037
00:48:22,326 --> 00:48:29,106
But it's also interesting to think like
in, in that same case of like coins being

1038
00:48:29,106 --> 00:48:34,236
added back to the circulation, that would
obviously devalue the existing supply.

1039
00:48:34,236 --> 00:48:36,576
So do you see, what's my question here?

1040
00:48:36,576 --> 00:48:43,536
Do you see like that proposal to
potentially freeze those coins like

1041
00:48:44,286 --> 00:48:46,301
being made and being, I don't know.

1042
00:48:46,521 --> 00:48:46,841
Do you know what

1043
00:48:46,941 --> 00:48:47,061
James: I mean?

1044
00:48:47,061 --> 00:48:48,486
It can be made, but I
don't think it will happen.

1045
00:48:48,651 --> 00:48:48,996
Yeah, yeah.

1046
00:48:48,996 --> 00:48:49,056
No.

1047
00:48:49,566 --> 00:48:51,156
Um, someone will propose it for sure.

1048
00:48:51,336 --> 00:48:54,546
Um, that's definitely gonna happen, but
I don't think it will, it will pass.

1049
00:48:55,086 --> 00:49:00,606
And the main reason when, when I like
rationalize this, if you freeze Satoshi's

1050
00:49:00,606 --> 00:49:04,536
coin, so again, um, people talk about
qu a Q day, like the day when quantum

1051
00:49:04,536 --> 00:49:07,596
finally starts breaking cryptography
and it will be a binary event.

1052
00:49:07,596 --> 00:49:10,956
It'll happen and then suddenly it
can start cracking cryptography.

1053
00:49:12,636 --> 00:49:14,011
If we, we don't know when that's gonna be.

1054
00:49:14,721 --> 00:49:19,071
So if we freeze somebody's coins and
say that you didn't upgrade in time,

1055
00:49:19,071 --> 00:49:20,391
we're gonna freeze it as this date.

1056
00:49:20,931 --> 00:49:25,161
We made the decision for somebody
else that you can't spend your money.

1057
00:49:26,091 --> 00:49:29,841
If, on the other hand, we allow
the market to do its thing and

1058
00:49:29,841 --> 00:49:34,431
eventually quantum comes by and it
does steal those coins, that person

1059
00:49:34,611 --> 00:49:36,351
made the decision to not upgrade.

1060
00:49:36,651 --> 00:49:37,431
Could be 'cause they're dead.

1061
00:49:37,431 --> 00:49:38,691
Could be 'cause they're
lost, whatever it is.

1062
00:49:38,691 --> 00:49:39,831
But they made that decision.

1063
00:49:40,191 --> 00:49:41,331
We don't know.

1064
00:49:41,481 --> 00:49:43,071
And, and here's a good example of this.

1065
00:49:43,071 --> 00:49:47,631
This year in July, we saw those 80,000
Bitcoin they were bought in 2011.

1066
00:49:48,141 --> 00:49:51,291
By all measures, people would've
assumed those to be lost coins.

1067
00:49:51,621 --> 00:49:54,981
And yet this dude shows up and just
one day decides, yeah, I'm gonna

1068
00:49:54,981 --> 00:49:56,061
cash out nine and a half billion.

1069
00:49:56,541 --> 00:49:56,961
Just like.

1070
00:49:57,516 --> 00:49:58,266
Comes outta the blue.

1071
00:49:59,346 --> 00:50:04,086
There are guys out there who have
coins that many coins for that long

1072
00:50:05,136 --> 00:50:06,786
and they've held it for 14 years.

1073
00:50:06,846 --> 00:50:10,146
And not only has he held it for
14 years, he didn't even spend it.

1074
00:50:10,566 --> 00:50:13,896
It's been sitting in the original
wallet that he had for 14 years

1075
00:50:13,896 --> 00:50:15,336
and he finally moves them.

1076
00:50:16,506 --> 00:50:20,736
Fascinating dynamic, but like you can't,
I just don't think we are ever gonna

1077
00:50:20,736 --> 00:50:22,386
reach consensus to steal people's coins.

1078
00:50:22,716 --> 00:50:27,756
And the tension, the tension is
gonna be if quantum can break the

1079
00:50:27,756 --> 00:50:29,586
cryptography and take people's coins.

1080
00:50:29,946 --> 00:50:35,106
Is that a breaking of Bitcoin security
assumptions or is the community decided

1081
00:50:35,106 --> 00:50:36,936
that we're gonna take your coins off you?

1082
00:50:37,206 --> 00:50:41,646
Is that a breaking of the, the, the
concept, in my opinion, the second

1083
00:50:41,646 --> 00:50:46,896
one is worse because Bitcoin as an
idea, if we can socially agree that

1084
00:50:46,896 --> 00:50:51,156
we can steal these people's coins
and freeze them, to me that's the.

1085
00:50:51,741 --> 00:50:53,661
That's human governance decision.

1086
00:50:53,661 --> 00:50:55,641
Stepping in because we're
afraid of the price.

1087
00:50:56,091 --> 00:50:59,751
I don't think the price should be a a
factor in the consensus rules honestly.

1088
00:51:00,321 --> 00:51:03,381
I think generally speaking
we should like what?

1089
00:51:03,441 --> 00:51:06,111
When a quantum computer can crack that
cryptography, what they're actually

1090
00:51:06,111 --> 00:51:07,521
doing is they're getting the private key.

1091
00:51:07,911 --> 00:51:12,051
And the rule of Bitcoin is if you have the
private key, you have the coins, right?

1092
00:51:12,051 --> 00:51:13,101
Not your keys, not your coins.

1093
00:51:13,281 --> 00:51:16,101
If you lose the private key because
you didn't upgrade 'cause someone could

1094
00:51:16,101 --> 00:51:19,371
attack your coins, you made that decision.

1095
00:51:19,371 --> 00:51:21,651
It's the same as leaving your seed
phrase on your desk in the office.

1096
00:51:21,651 --> 00:51:24,741
If someone takes your coins,
sure legally they're stolen

1097
00:51:25,281 --> 00:51:26,271
but you no longer have them.

1098
00:51:26,391 --> 00:51:27,981
And possession is nine tenths of the law.

1099
00:51:27,981 --> 00:51:32,991
So I'm of the view that we will never
come to consensus to freeze and therefore

1100
00:51:33,291 --> 00:51:37,641
rule of the jungle will most likely apply,
will create the quantum secure system.

1101
00:51:37,761 --> 00:51:39,771
People can upgrade if they
want, if they choose not to.

1102
00:51:40,011 --> 00:51:42,381
They're also choosing to have
their seed phrase on their desk.

1103
00:51:43,281 --> 00:51:43,671
Anja: Yeah.

1104
00:51:43,911 --> 00:51:44,271
Yeah.

1105
00:51:44,481 --> 00:51:45,141
That's interesting.

1106
00:51:45,141 --> 00:51:45,651
Makes sense.

1107
00:51:45,651 --> 00:51:45,891
Okay.

1108
00:51:45,891 --> 00:51:48,741
I'm glad I asked that question
'cause it just really needed

1109
00:51:48,741 --> 00:51:49,071
James: Yes.

1110
00:51:49,431 --> 00:51:50,601
Anja: To be cleared up.

1111
00:51:50,601 --> 00:51:53,841
James: Oh, it's a complex, it's a very
complex puzzle and like quantum is a,

1112
00:51:54,411 --> 00:51:56,601
that whole field is also full of a gaze.

1113
00:51:56,751 --> 00:51:59,691
Like the only industry that's got
more scamy in there than the crypto

1114
00:51:59,691 --> 00:52:00,861
industry is the quantum world.

1115
00:52:00,861 --> 00:52:04,521
So it's very hard to decipher fact from
fiction in both of those industries.

1116
00:52:05,361 --> 00:52:06,531
Anja: Yeah, it is.

1117
00:52:06,741 --> 00:52:06,981
Hmm.

1118
00:52:07,191 --> 00:52:08,151
We'll see what happens.

1119
00:52:08,151 --> 00:52:10,251
It's such an interesting time to be alive.

1120
00:52:10,701 --> 00:52:14,931
Um, but I also wanted to ask you another
future focused question is, um, and

1121
00:52:14,931 --> 00:52:16,671
that is more on like the adoption.

1122
00:52:16,671 --> 00:52:20,691
There's obviously the two dominant
theories is one that will have an s-curve

1123
00:52:20,691 --> 00:52:28,911
adoption and another one is that it's
gonna be more, um, you know, gentle more.

1124
00:52:28,941 --> 00:52:29,151
Yeah.

1125
00:52:29,151 --> 00:52:31,401
It won't be going exponentially.

1126
00:52:31,401 --> 00:52:34,311
It's just gonna be very slow and steady.

1127
00:52:34,521 --> 00:52:38,451
What do, do you have an opinion
on that and does any on chain

1128
00:52:38,451 --> 00:52:39,861
data support your thesis?

1129
00:52:41,286 --> 00:52:42,366
James: Yeah, good question.

1130
00:52:42,366 --> 00:52:47,856
So I have a feeling that we're gonna get
a bit of both because I'm of the view

1131
00:52:47,856 --> 00:52:54,696
that most individuals like you and me, who
kind of really get Bitcoin and actually

1132
00:52:54,696 --> 00:52:56,676
want to go and buy it, custody it.

1133
00:52:57,066 --> 00:53:00,066
I think that we are getting towards the
end of people who are gonna do that.

1134
00:53:00,906 --> 00:53:03,336
You know, if we go through Bitcoin's
timeline, it started with the Cipher

1135
00:53:03,336 --> 00:53:06,456
punks moved to like the libertarians,
then it started to move to more

1136
00:53:06,456 --> 00:53:09,516
of the investor types and then
the gamblers and the speculators.

1137
00:53:09,936 --> 00:53:12,876
And then you got this like pool of
Bitcoiners who really like ideologically

1138
00:53:12,876 --> 00:53:17,916
believe in it, run nodes, you know, even
know that people are arguing over returns.

1139
00:53:18,336 --> 00:53:20,856
All this stuff, like that's a
very small subset of the world.

1140
00:53:21,666 --> 00:53:25,506
The vast, vast, vast, vast majority
of people, they just want a pool of

1141
00:53:25,506 --> 00:53:26,676
assets and they want to go to the beach.

1142
00:53:26,766 --> 00:53:28,506
They don't, they don't want to
think about any of this stuff.

1143
00:53:29,091 --> 00:53:33,201
So the S-curve side, I don't
know if it's gonna be like just a

1144
00:53:33,411 --> 00:53:37,281
massive retail, like individuals
coming in and buying this thing.

1145
00:53:37,761 --> 00:53:40,881
I think a lot of people will get
allocated it in their retirement accounts.

1146
00:53:40,911 --> 00:53:43,851
'cause it will just become, you
know, it's normal to have a 5% or

1147
00:53:43,851 --> 00:53:45,651
a 2% or a 1% allocation to Bitcoin.

1148
00:53:45,651 --> 00:53:48,771
Like that's just a normal thing that
everyone just has and their financial

1149
00:53:48,771 --> 00:53:49,791
advisors just does it for them.

1150
00:53:50,061 --> 00:53:51,231
That's gonna be a big part of it.

1151
00:53:52,071 --> 00:53:54,351
But I think the S-curve,
that is really interesting.

1152
00:53:54,351 --> 00:53:57,051
We can talk about it on
a per capita perspective.

1153
00:53:57,591 --> 00:54:00,681
I think we've gone through a large part
of that where individuals adopted it.

1154
00:54:01,671 --> 00:54:03,591
But there's another S-curve,
which is all about the capital.

1155
00:54:04,851 --> 00:54:07,851
We, in a world where inflation's
gonna get worse, we're seeing the

1156
00:54:07,851 --> 00:54:11,151
reason gold is going up is because
the monetary system is changing.

1157
00:54:11,481 --> 00:54:12,861
The bonds are no longer safe.

1158
00:54:12,861 --> 00:54:14,661
Like that's a whole thing to itself.

1159
00:54:15,711 --> 00:54:16,251
Really.

1160
00:54:16,251 --> 00:54:20,571
There's only two assets in the world
that are neutral, scarce, and have

1161
00:54:20,571 --> 00:54:26,361
the properties required to replace
the bond as the base level of savings.

1162
00:54:26,916 --> 00:54:28,896
Gold and Bitcoin and gold,
the one that's big enough.

1163
00:54:28,986 --> 00:54:30,486
So that's why gold is
doing what it's doing.

1164
00:54:30,846 --> 00:54:35,796
So the fact that Bitcoin, after 17 years
is being talked about at the highest

1165
00:54:35,796 --> 00:54:41,826
levels of sovereigns companies, the
whole lot as being a potential contender,

1166
00:54:42,246 --> 00:54:48,606
as a savings asset in the future, that
alone is a wild concept after 17 years.

1167
00:54:48,606 --> 00:54:53,616
So whilst we may not get the
S-curve of individuals, the S-curve

1168
00:54:53,616 --> 00:54:57,756
of dollars money coming in, that
is very, very much on the table.

1169
00:54:57,906 --> 00:55:02,946
Because as Bitcoin gets bigger, like
the reason that gold is able to go

1170
00:55:02,946 --> 00:55:07,296
from, I mean it gold has added $12
trillion to its market cap this year,

1171
00:55:07,356 --> 00:55:11,766
just this year, and we're in October
or November, it's added 12 trillion.

1172
00:55:12,336 --> 00:55:15,126
That's, I mean, Bitcoin's 2
trillion, that's six Bitcoins.

1173
00:55:15,606 --> 00:55:21,516
That's six entire Bitcoin networks when
like a very, very, very small point.

1174
00:55:21,516 --> 00:55:25,146
Part of the world goes, you know what,
we need to allocate 2%, 5%, whatever.

1175
00:55:26,196 --> 00:55:29,496
It's just the, the amount of
money is just tremendously big.

1176
00:55:30,216 --> 00:55:33,306
I think the S-curve, and that's gonna
show up in the price naturally, so it's

1177
00:55:33,306 --> 00:55:34,686
gonna go through waves of this thing.

1178
00:55:35,676 --> 00:55:39,456
I don't know how it plays out, but
I, I, I can see this wall of money.

1179
00:55:39,816 --> 00:55:41,736
That's how you can have hundreds of
billions dollars of sell side and

1180
00:55:41,736 --> 00:55:43,116
the price goes sideways, not down.

1181
00:55:43,651 --> 00:55:43,941
Anja: Yeah.

1182
00:55:44,891 --> 00:55:49,206
Bitcoin's a funny thing because, you
know, sometimes it really feels like it's

1183
00:55:49,266 --> 00:55:53,946
growing really slowly and other times
it just, you know, when you take a step

1184
00:55:53,946 --> 00:55:58,176
back and you realize it's actually like
the adoption's growing ridiculously fast.

1185
00:55:58,176 --> 00:56:01,236
And the best analogy I can give,
it's almost like your kid, you

1186
00:56:01,236 --> 00:56:02,316
know, you see them every day.

1187
00:56:02,316 --> 00:56:05,256
You don't necessarily see the
height difference day to day, but

1188
00:56:05,256 --> 00:56:08,496
then, you know, you might measure
them once a year against the wall.

1189
00:56:08,496 --> 00:56:11,646
You realize they're growing like 10
centimeters and that's kind of what

1190
00:56:11,826 --> 00:56:13,416
Bitcoin feels like, don't you think?

1191
00:56:14,496 --> 00:56:14,946
James: Totally.

1192
00:56:15,336 --> 00:56:17,556
And it goes through growth spurts,
you know, like there, there's

1193
00:56:17,556 --> 00:56:18,696
periods of time where, again.

1194
00:56:19,761 --> 00:56:22,971
If you wind back the clock 12
months, we were trading at 60

1195
00:56:22,971 --> 00:56:24,531
K and here we are at a hundred.

1196
00:56:24,711 --> 00:56:28,011
Like the, the moves just suddenly,
it just comes outta nowhere.

1197
00:56:28,041 --> 00:56:32,691
And I, I also ran the statistics
on this on a daily basis, 40% of

1198
00:56:32,691 --> 00:56:35,901
the time Bitcoin, Bitcoin goes
less than 1% in either direction.

1199
00:56:36,471 --> 00:56:37,761
40% of the time it goes nowhere.

1200
00:56:38,421 --> 00:56:39,621
30% of the time it goes up.

1201
00:56:39,621 --> 00:56:42,471
30% of the time it goes down
more than 1% or less than 1%.

1202
00:56:43,221 --> 00:56:46,041
Uh, if you wind that back
to a quarterly basis.

1203
00:56:46,611 --> 00:56:50,331
So that's like a beautiful bell
curve on the daily side where it kind

1204
00:56:50,331 --> 00:56:51,531
of goes nowhere most of the time.

1205
00:56:52,311 --> 00:56:58,821
On the quarterly basis, it has a massive
skew positively, where again, a lot of

1206
00:56:58,821 --> 00:57:02,241
the time it goes nowhere, but then some
quarters it goes up a hundred percent.

1207
00:57:02,451 --> 00:57:06,651
And, uh, I ran this study saying in
each of the previous cycles, 20 17,

1208
00:57:06,651 --> 00:57:11,181
20 21, um, and this current one, I
think I ran this study in BID 24.

1209
00:57:11,811 --> 00:57:16,251
Basically I showed that if you miss
the 10 best days, just set all the

1210
00:57:16,251 --> 00:57:18,051
10 best days of that cycle to zero.

1211
00:57:18,771 --> 00:57:21,261
You actually are flat to
down on the entire cycle.

1212
00:57:22,101 --> 00:57:23,541
This is a four year period.

1213
00:57:23,751 --> 00:57:27,801
Those 10 days are so powerful to
the upside that that is where the

1214
00:57:27,801 --> 00:57:29,511
entire return profile comes from.

1215
00:57:29,901 --> 00:57:33,261
So when you get all these day traders
who are trying to like get in, get out,

1216
00:57:33,261 --> 00:57:37,161
trade around this thing, what they're
trying to do is avoid the 10 worst days.

1217
00:57:37,191 --> 00:57:40,971
And there's no question if you miss the 10
worst days, you know your returns go from

1218
00:57:41,206 --> 00:57:46,581
a a 10 x to a 20 x, that's great, but if
you miss the 10 best days, you get a zero.

1219
00:57:47,001 --> 00:57:49,521
So like you lose your 10 x
that you would've had if you

1220
00:57:49,521 --> 00:57:50,751
just sat there and did nothing.

1221
00:57:50,751 --> 00:57:55,791
So for the average ler, stay humble and
stack SATs is just the tried and trusted

1222
00:57:55,791 --> 00:58:00,111
method because you're gonna get those
10 days and like who knows when those

1223
00:58:00,111 --> 00:58:02,901
10 days are gonna be, they're all over
the place, but sometimes they happen

1224
00:58:02,901 --> 00:58:04,311
and they're just big green candles.

1225
00:58:04,701 --> 00:58:07,221
And if you miss it,
you're kind of outta luck.

1226
00:58:08,316 --> 00:58:08,796
Anja: Yeah.

1227
00:58:09,216 --> 00:58:09,666
Yeah.

1228
00:58:09,936 --> 00:58:15,576
I mean, this is my first and only bull
run, so I'm like completely selfishly

1229
00:58:15,576 --> 00:58:19,386
just wanting to have the experience
of like, some of the prior bull runs,

1230
00:58:19,386 --> 00:58:20,766
even if there's a massive drawback.

1231
00:58:20,766 --> 00:58:21,576
I just wanna experience it.

1232
00:58:23,211 --> 00:58:23,701
James: Totally.

1233
00:58:23,801 --> 00:58:24,021
As

1234
00:58:24,021 --> 00:58:24,501
Anja: silly as that sounds.

1235
00:58:24,501 --> 00:58:24,511
Totally.

1236
00:58:24,781 --> 00:58:25,061
James: Yeah.

1237
00:58:25,066 --> 00:58:25,296
Yeah.

1238
00:58:25,301 --> 00:58:26,646
No, it's, it's, it's, it's a real thing.

1239
00:58:26,646 --> 00:58:28,986
And like it's, this
bull is very different.

1240
00:58:29,016 --> 00:58:32,586
In 2021, it was just one, it was like
three or four months of just straight

1241
00:58:32,586 --> 00:58:34,326
up, and then it was just down only.

1242
00:58:34,806 --> 00:58:36,546
So that was like a whole thing.

1243
00:58:36,546 --> 00:58:40,626
But this is like up sideways
for a year, up, sideways for a

1244
00:58:40,626 --> 00:58:42,066
year, up, sideways for a year.

1245
00:58:42,066 --> 00:58:43,626
So it's a very different animal.

1246
00:58:43,926 --> 00:58:45,151
Um, much more structured,
much more stable.

1247
00:58:46,206 --> 00:58:50,136
Um, and the bear market in my opinion,
is gonna be far, far less severe,

1248
00:58:50,616 --> 00:58:52,176
um, without some kind of major runup.

1249
00:58:52,176 --> 00:58:54,486
So, you know, even the downside
is not that, not that bad.

1250
00:58:54,756 --> 00:58:56,316
Um, and I use this good example.

1251
00:58:56,856 --> 00:58:58,956
Um, my old man's been
in Bitcoin since 2020.

1252
00:58:59,406 --> 00:59:00,576
Uh, finally got him in.

1253
00:59:00,786 --> 00:59:03,786
He rode the bull, had a great time,
told me all about the bear market

1254
00:59:03,786 --> 00:59:05,286
every day about how shitty it was.

1255
00:59:05,736 --> 00:59:06,426
And now.

1256
00:59:07,101 --> 00:59:08,691
In this current market structure.

1257
00:59:09,111 --> 00:59:11,031
Bitcoin is like me who've been
around for a long time are

1258
00:59:11,031 --> 00:59:12,591
like, where's my volatility?

1259
00:59:12,591 --> 00:59:13,581
It's so boring.

1260
00:59:13,581 --> 00:59:14,811
Oh, Bitcoin sucks.

1261
00:59:14,991 --> 00:59:17,211
And my old man's like,
Hey, should I buy more?

1262
00:59:17,211 --> 00:59:18,891
Like, I really like that
it's not going down anymore.

1263
00:59:18,891 --> 00:59:23,151
So like you can see the two different
high octane Bitcoin as a disappointed

1264
00:59:23,391 --> 00:59:26,001
and my old man's like, Hey, I should
probably buy some more of this thing.

1265
00:59:26,001 --> 00:59:27,141
Like it's really doing very well.

1266
00:59:27,141 --> 00:59:29,031
So like two very different perceptions.

1267
00:59:30,471 --> 00:59:31,761
Anja: I mean, I like it all.

1268
00:59:31,761 --> 00:59:34,131
So, yeah, it's just, just interesting.

1269
00:59:34,191 --> 00:59:38,001
Like you, you wanna experience, um,
this, yeah, there was definitely like a

1270
00:59:38,001 --> 00:59:44,271
drawback earlier on in the year that went
back like 30% and that was my first Yeah.

1271
00:59:44,271 --> 00:59:45,471
Drawback in Bitcoin.

1272
00:59:45,471 --> 00:59:48,501
And I remember going to one of my friends,
I'm like, he's gonna keep going down.

1273
00:59:48,501 --> 00:59:50,571
They're like, oh, princess,
welcome to Bitcoin.

1274
00:59:52,341 --> 00:59:55,041
And this time around I'm like, whatever.

1275
00:59:56,091 --> 00:59:56,361
James: Totally.

1276
00:59:56,391 --> 00:59:56,631
Anja: Yeah.

1277
00:59:57,561 --> 01:00:01,341
James: And, and as as an example like that
period in um, early, it was like March and

1278
01:00:01,341 --> 01:00:04,581
April we went down 32%, um, that period.

1279
01:00:04,701 --> 01:00:08,361
So on the way up this time last
year, so the elections happened in

1280
01:00:08,361 --> 01:00:13,251
the US and we went from about 70 5K
just we zipped straight up to 85.

1281
01:00:13,431 --> 01:00:17,961
Like it was instant, very, very
few coins, trade at hands in

1282
01:00:17,961 --> 01:00:20,061
that like 75 to 80 5K zone.

1283
01:00:20,571 --> 01:00:24,021
And in about January it was
about like 105 K or something.

1284
01:00:24,531 --> 01:00:25,641
I started writing a lot.

1285
01:00:25,641 --> 01:00:26,691
I called it the air pocket.

1286
01:00:26,841 --> 01:00:30,291
And I was like, look, I know no one
wants to hear this and I can't predict

1287
01:00:30,291 --> 01:00:36,201
this is gonna happen, but just be aware
that down there between 75 and 85, no

1288
01:00:36,201 --> 01:00:37,761
one knows how much demand is there.

1289
01:00:38,031 --> 01:00:41,451
And we're seeing a lot of buying
up here at 95, a hundred, 110.

1290
01:00:42,051 --> 01:00:45,006
And I was just again, trying to
prepare my subscriber and say, look.

1291
01:00:46,116 --> 01:00:50,136
Just be prepared that we might go
down and just test that zone and just

1292
01:00:50,136 --> 01:00:51,786
find out who wants to buy down there.

1293
01:00:52,416 --> 01:00:55,446
And lo and behold, we went
exactly down to 70 5K.

1294
01:00:55,626 --> 01:00:58,506
That was the level we zipped straight
through it chopped around at 85 for a

1295
01:00:58,506 --> 01:01:00,126
month or so, and then up we go again.

1296
01:01:00,126 --> 01:01:03,036
So that was the way that I was
thinking about like just be

1297
01:01:03,036 --> 01:01:05,346
prepared in case we go there.

1298
01:01:05,526 --> 01:01:08,976
I dunno if we will, we ended up,
but be prepared that air pocket,

1299
01:01:09,276 --> 01:01:10,986
it's just asking to be filled.

1300
01:01:11,736 --> 01:01:12,066
Anja: Yeah.

1301
01:01:12,606 --> 01:01:13,146
Love it.

1302
01:01:13,686 --> 01:01:15,816
Anyway, thanks so much for your time.

1303
01:01:15,816 --> 01:01:20,856
Do you have any last, last thoughts
that you wanna share with the audience?

1304
01:01:21,936 --> 01:01:25,206
James: Honestly, the best
advice in all of Bitcoin ever

1305
01:01:25,266 --> 01:01:26,736
is stay humble and stack SATs.

1306
01:01:26,856 --> 01:01:30,546
Just like don't get distracted,
just keep stacking away.

1307
01:01:31,056 --> 01:01:34,656
This asset is so well positioned
for the future that's coming.

1308
01:01:34,686 --> 01:01:36,366
Just buy and hold.

1309
01:01:37,026 --> 01:01:39,156
It is the best savings account
that you're gonna find.

1310
01:01:39,816 --> 01:01:41,826
Like you do not have to worry about it.

1311
01:01:41,826 --> 01:01:42,066
Sure.

1312
01:01:42,066 --> 01:01:43,176
Price are gonna go up and down.

1313
01:01:43,866 --> 01:01:45,366
But this thing is rock solid.

1314
01:01:45,366 --> 01:01:48,096
Like this is the most powerful
computing system that's ever

1315
01:01:48,096 --> 01:01:49,896
come, ever been invented.

1316
01:01:50,616 --> 01:01:53,436
It's just a force of nature
and the cat is outta the bag.

1317
01:01:53,496 --> 01:01:56,466
It's, and, and there are no shit
coins that are gonna beat Bitcoin.

1318
01:01:56,466 --> 01:01:57,636
Bitcoin is just the thing.

1319
01:01:58,236 --> 01:01:59,136
It's Bitcoin and gold.

1320
01:01:59,226 --> 01:02:01,716
And like for me, I'm
90% Bitcoin, 10% gold.

1321
01:02:01,746 --> 01:02:04,056
And I don't think about
my holdings at all.

1322
01:02:04,056 --> 01:02:06,036
I don't even think they're
investments or assets.

1323
01:02:06,366 --> 01:02:07,416
They're just my savings account.

1324
01:02:07,866 --> 01:02:11,676
Um, you know, Fiat's going to continue to
get worse, inflation's gonna get worse.

1325
01:02:11,676 --> 01:02:14,406
You've just gotta sit tight
and there's a trillion dollars

1326
01:02:14,406 --> 01:02:15,666
worth of other people who agree.

1327
01:02:15,756 --> 01:02:17,646
So just stay humble, stack sa.

1328
01:02:18,696 --> 01:02:19,356
Anja: Love it.

1329
01:02:19,356 --> 01:02:21,126
Thanks so much for your time, James.

1330
01:02:21,756 --> 01:02:21,936
James: Good.

1331
01:02:21,936 --> 01:02:22,116
I know.

1332
01:02:22,116 --> 01:02:22,746
Thanks having me Ellen.

1333
01:02:23,436 --> 01:02:23,826
Anja: Thanks.

1334
01:02:24,214 --> 01:02:27,454
Speaker 2: That's it for this week
on The Honest Money Show, a big

1335
01:02:27,454 --> 01:02:32,314
shout out again to shop bitcoin.com
au for making this episode possible.

1336
01:02:32,764 --> 01:02:36,934
Until next week, stay smart with
your money and stay decentralized.