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- Hi, welcome to the
Works in Progress podcast.

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I'm Sam, I'm here with Ben
Southwood and Samuel Hughes.

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Samuel, what was the Great Downzoning?

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- So historically cities grow in two ways.

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Like putting it simply, they grow

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outwards or they grow upwards.

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Today, most cities around the
world still grow outwards.

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In fact, there's like
massive outward expansion

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of cities in most countries,

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but in suburban areas, which
is most of the surface area

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of cities, they don't really,
really go upwards anymore.

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They tend to be regulatory constraints

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that say once you built a
suburb at a low density, it has

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to stay like that forever.

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So it's completely novel.

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Historically, it's all
changed since the late 19th

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century and the present day.

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So I call this process the Great
Downzoning process whereby

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zoning restrictions
have gradually introduced

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and lowered such that neighbourhoods

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were frozen in place forever.

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- And basically this happened what,

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around the second World War or
before the Second World War?

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- It's a bit more complex.

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So it's starts in actually
the German Empire

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and Austria-Hungary in
the late 19th century.

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It spreads in the interwar
period to the United States,

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Canada, then to Australia.

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And then it comes in in Britain

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and France, really in the
postwar period, quite a kind

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of a strange way we can discuss later.

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But it's proceeded by a kind

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of private sector downzoning,
which happens much earlier.

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That goes back into the 19th
and even the 18th centuries.

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So the long story begins
in the sixteen, seventeen hundreds

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with the first development

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of like not really low density suburbia,

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but at least like medium
density elite residential

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suburbs in Britain.

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And those have private

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zoning rules pretty much
from the start names

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that then gradually expands

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around the world in the 19th century.

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So Germany, France, United States, Canada,

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they all develop low density suburbs

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and they've all got, like, again,

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pretty much from the start,

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they're getting more sophisticated

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and more detailed over time.

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They've got private
zoning rules, covenants

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that are restricting
density. Public zoning -

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so the state restricting density

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that comes in in the late
1800s in central Europe in

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Germany and Austria, spreads

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to North America British
Empire in mainly

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the interwar period.

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And then finally comes
in in kind of Britain

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and France, mainly in I
think probably the forties,

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fifties in the postwar period.

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So it's the overall process

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is pretty long.

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But the short version
is like whenever low density

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suburbia develops in a country
elite low density suburbia

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develops in a country,

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private zoning follows
pretty quickly after that.

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And then public zoning, like
after the modern state emerges

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and norms start shifting about what kind

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of state intervention
is appropriate, it tends

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to come fairly quickly when
private zoning mechanisms start

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to fail or when low density
elite suburbia comes under

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serious intensification pressure.

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So the the key thing I've
learned like studying,

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so the first thing to say
about the Great Downzoning,

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like an amazingly under-discussed
underappreciated subject,

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Americans write a bit
about the introduction

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of zoning in the United States

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and there's a bit of a kind
of classic literature on

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how it arrived, but
Europeans don't really write

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about it at all.

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So most British

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and French people, even if
they work on housing policy,

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even if they work on
suburban densification

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as a policy area, don't know
where's like rules against

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densification when they started,

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why they started, how they started.

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So I've like kind

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of gone from scratch when
I've been reading about this.

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The first place where public zoning,

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like the state putting
in zoning policy started

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was probably, I can't quite
work out the first one.

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The standard people
often say it's Frankfurt,

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but there seem to be some
earlier ones like Dresden

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and Budapest seem to maybe
have been earlier in the

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1870s and 1880s.

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And it's very much like German
speaking places that do it.

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First they have maybe a more
interventionist tradition

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of state government
may, maybe it goes back

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to like the Prussian
state in the 18th century,

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more authoritarian approach

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to government in the 19th century.

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The big thing I hadn't
appreciated at all is

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that in pretty much
every country, downzoning

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by the government is
proceeded by downzoning

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by the private sector.

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So what I mean by this
is in the middle ages,

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cities do have suburbs,

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but the suburbs are like
poverty stricken, mixed use.

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Like basically they're where like

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noxious industrial functions are placed

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and where people who can't pay

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to get into the city itself
have to have to live.

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- They're actually outside the walls

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in mediaeval times, right?

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- Often it's like
- Shanty towns against the wall.

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- It's the dangerous
place which will get burnt

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by the authorities if the city's besieged

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to avoid giving cover to the attackers.

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So you live under constant threats

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that the authorities might
burn your home down if the town

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becomes is a town is in danger,

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maybe you don't have like full protection

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of law in these places, like bad places.

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You don't want to be there
if you can possibly avoid it.

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Then in the like basically England,

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you start getting
something like modern suburbs

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and the west end of
London is maybe the first

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- The west end starts as a suburb.

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- Well kind of, it's an elite
residential area built at

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much lower densities.

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It's exclusively, exclusively
for wealthy people

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and exclusively for housing

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and some kind of retail functions.

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So it's like the key tests, it passes

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and it starts as early
as the 17th century,

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but really gets underway
in the 18th century

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and that right from the beginning.

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So that's where like
one big landowner says,

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I'm gonna make this whole
neighbourhood into a

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a sanctuary from the things
we don't like about urban life

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and also maybe a sanctuary
from like the things

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that we don't like about
mediaeval suburban life.

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So we're not gonna have any
slaughter houses or brick kilns.

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We are not gonna have any like
through, well little, as little

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through traffic as possible

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and the more
morally dubious side of it.

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Basically we've
gotta try to avoid having

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poor people living in this area

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and they've got this challenge like

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how do you preserve once
I've sold homes here,

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sold plots here, like I can
sell them for house building

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or I can build houses, but

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how do I keep them in that use forever?

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And in order to attract
really like wealthy buyers

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to spend a lot of money
on this neighbourhood,

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they're gonna want to guarantee

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that the neighborhood's going to remain

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as an elite residential
suburb into the medium term.

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So what they do is they impose
covenants which are like kind

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of like a contract where
not only the first buyer,

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but all future buyers have to agree

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to keep the house in basically
like in elite residential use

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and in single ownership, right?

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In single ownership often.

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So as a slightly technical detail,

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but often the original
landowner doesn't even build the

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house, they sell it to
a house, a developer

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to build the individual house.

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So they often put in some
restrictions on what kind

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of house can be built,
what it can be used for,

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often a minimum price.

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Sometimes they put in detailed
architectural restrictions,

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sometimes they put in really
like minute stuff restrictions

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on what pets you can have

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or restrictions on where
you can hang the laundry

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or any of the kind of things
that they think is going

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to help preserve the
tone of the neighbourhood.

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- One impression I got from
reading the novel, The Quincunx,

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which I gather is by based
on very careful historical

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research of the period, is
that everyone at this time

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who was middle class was terrified

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of their neighbourhood falling into penry

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and becoming like a very
dangerous, unpleasant place

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with 20 people cram to a room

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and they gave the example of
the Devil's Acre in Westminster

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where all the streets are lined

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with these crumbling grand mansions,

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which are now split into 20
people crammed into every room

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and all kind of criminality
is being carried out around.

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- So it's extremely common
for neighbourhoods to go

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through social decline in
pre-modern times, partly

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because of course they didn't
have like Europeans now think

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an older house is like prima
fai better than a new house

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and it's like a heritage,
heritage property commands a

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premium, but Europeans
in the past didn't think

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that they thought them like, like

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cars or computers or something.

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Like you've got like a shoddy
old house which is gonna have

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loads of defects and at
some point gonna require

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loads of expensive work.

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So you had the properties
themselves constantly degrading,

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just physically fashion, you
know, it was capricious then

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as now, and then the tendency
just if we they're building

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new suburbs, the new
suburbs will be built to

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be maximally attractive
and try to draw people out.

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So you have a constant
tendency for neighbourhoods

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to fall into decline.

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People are always afraid
of this neighbourhoods

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that aren't covenanted,
certainly in London,

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but I generally around Europe there's like

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people often pretty comp...
like it's going to happen.

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- Mm.
- You've got a time limit on

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how long you can live here at the,

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with the same like
expectations for the character

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of the neighbourhood as when you bought it

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and quite a short time limit,

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maybe like a 15 year
time limit or something.

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Neighbourhoods that were
covenanted could sometimes survive

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indefinitely, although even
they would decline sometimes

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and eventually sometimes the

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like people would stop bothering
to enforce the covenants

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because they think oh
it's, it's hopeless at this

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point.

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And is and is this happening because

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so many people are moving into cities?

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Why is it that
presumably if you have a lot

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of people considered

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to be undesirable moving
into a particular area,

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they're moving from somewhere else,

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are they like moving within the city

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and does that mean that
there are other areas

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that are becoming kind of
less dangerous let's say?

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Or are they moving into
the city from rural areas?

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- I think it, my sense is it usually

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accompanies urban growth.

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I see. So it's normally,

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there aren't usually
urban neighbourhoods

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becoming more genial.

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There are normally,

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the default is all in urban
neighbourhoods are in decline

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except maybe the business centre

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of which might retain like
an elite character.

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All in urban neighbourhoods are in decline

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and the middle classes are slowly moving

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further and further outwards.

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That's the pattern in
London. It's a bit more

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complex in other parts of Europe.

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- And this is what year, what kind

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of year period are we
talking about? Again?

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- I mean it, this starts in
a big way in the 18th century

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and runs all the way
into the 20th century.

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Okay. This process and it's, yeah,

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but Covenanting was successful
in preserving some areas

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of London from this process

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and Britain, I mean London had
the particularly interesting

255
00:10:40,530 --> 00:10:43,740
process, the freehold system
whereby the original landowner

256
00:10:43,740 --> 00:10:45,420
would retain a kind of ownership.

257
00:10:45,420 --> 00:10:47,550
Yeah, partial ownership in the properties

258
00:10:47,550 --> 00:10:49,590
and the, these so-called great estates.

259
00:10:50,670 --> 00:10:52,620
And these landowners were
often really vigorous about

260
00:10:52,620 --> 00:10:53,910
enforcing the covenants

261
00:10:53,910 --> 00:10:56,940
because they wanted to avoid
the neighbourhood declining

262
00:10:56,940 --> 00:10:59,070
because they had a long-term
financial interest in it.

263
00:10:59,070 --> 00:10:59,940
- In a hundred years they would

264
00:10:59,940 --> 00:11:02,410
regain ownership and resell
the leases. That's what happened.

265
00:11:02,410 --> 00:11:03,243
Yeah, they'd sell the leases for about

266
00:11:03,243 --> 00:11:03,750
80 or a hundred years.

267
00:11:03,750 --> 00:11:06,510
And so they, and because
they were extreme like church

268
00:11:06,510 --> 00:11:08,340
bodies or charities or
aristocratic families,

269
00:11:08,340 --> 00:11:09,600
they were extremely long termist

270
00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:10,860
and actually cared about what happened

271
00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:12,270
in 80 or a hundred years.

272
00:11:12,270 --> 00:11:15,030
So they were thinking if this
neighborhood's become a slum

273
00:11:15,030 --> 00:11:16,800
in 80 years, my grandchildren

274
00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:18,035
will inherit a worthless asset.

275
00:11:18,990 --> 00:11:21,390
Whereas if I retain it
as a summit of fashion,

276
00:11:21,390 --> 00:11:22,440
then they'll retain,

277
00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,570
they'll get to inherit
this amazingly prestigious

278
00:11:24,570 --> 00:11:26,340
and and lucrative asset.

279
00:11:26,340 --> 00:11:28,410
So I'm gonna fight really
hard to retain its character.

280
00:11:28,410 --> 00:11:32,730
And like Bloombury was a
key like neighbourhood on the,

281
00:11:32,730 --> 00:11:35,370
on those like edge of genteel London owned

282
00:11:35,370 --> 00:11:36,690
by the Bedford family.

283
00:11:36,690 --> 00:11:39,330
And they were famously like
one of the most conscientious

284
00:11:39,330 --> 00:11:41,850
of the great states in enforcing covenants

285
00:11:41,850 --> 00:11:43,710
and even supplying public services

286
00:11:43,710 --> 00:11:45,750
and this kind of thing because
they were really, really keen

287
00:11:45,750 --> 00:11:47,850
to keep its character and they
didn't completely succeed.

288
00:11:47,850 --> 00:11:49,620
It gradually decayed

289
00:11:49,620 --> 00:11:51,210
and became a kind of bedsit territory

290
00:11:51,210 --> 00:11:52,990
by the early 20th century,

291
00:11:52,990 --> 00:11:55,120
but it didn't completely fall through.

292
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,190
And that sheltered the
neighbourhoods to the west of there.

293
00:11:57,190 --> 00:11:59,170
And the mechanism here is basically

294
00:11:59,170 --> 00:12:00,670
units becoming subdivided.

295
00:12:00,670 --> 00:12:03,460
Like it's, it's like you
start with a kind of ...

296
00:12:03,460 --> 00:12:04,810
I guess a nice apartment.

297
00:12:04,810 --> 00:12:06,220
Is it apartments or is it houses?

298
00:12:06,220 --> 00:12:08,680
And then the mechanism is, it's kind

299
00:12:08,680 --> 00:12:10,900
of always more economical
to just cram more

300
00:12:10,900 --> 00:12:13,810
and more people into these
units than to maintain them

301
00:12:13,810 --> 00:12:16,300
as being nice for a
single family or whatever.

302
00:12:16,300 --> 00:12:17,410
- Yeah. So London,

303
00:12:17,410 --> 00:12:19,960
in the classic greater states
period, that's, that's all correct.

304
00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,200
It started as houses and the
main form of densification,

305
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,470
it's like population densification
rather than mainly floor

306
00:12:26,470 --> 00:12:27,610
space densification.

307
00:12:27,610 --> 00:12:30,010
So it's mostly just the same
buildings being subdivided.

308
00:12:30,010 --> 00:12:31,540
That's not quite true because
they did fit in the back

309
00:12:31,540 --> 00:12:34,510
garden sometimes, but they
weren't at this point mainly

310
00:12:34,510 --> 00:12:37,060
talking about knocking them
down and building flats.

311
00:12:37,060 --> 00:12:38,710
That becomes an issue in the 20th century

312
00:12:38,710 --> 00:12:41,560
or late 19th, 20th century
when flats become in

313
00:12:41,560 --> 00:12:44,590
Anglo-American settings, they become a

314
00:12:44,590 --> 00:12:47,560
start becoming more
common, get lift shafts

315
00:12:47,560 --> 00:12:49,180
and steel frames, which enables you

316
00:12:49,180 --> 00:12:51,070
to build really tall blocks of flats.

317
00:12:51,070 --> 00:12:53,110
And then you start getting the block

318
00:12:53,110 --> 00:12:54,550
of flats appearing in a green

319
00:12:54,550 --> 00:12:55,810
and leafy suburban neighbourhood.

320
00:12:55,810 --> 00:12:58,120
And that becomes another huge issue

321
00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,010
and a huge like key battleground

322
00:13:00,010 --> 00:13:01,750
around the, around densification.

323
00:13:01,750 --> 00:13:05,920
- Where are we then when
the kind of dense city

324
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,920
that you're talking about
begins to change, like

325
00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,260
how do we get from what
you're talking about this sort

326
00:13:11,260 --> 00:13:15,220
of 18th century, 19th
century, the, the emergence

327
00:13:15,220 --> 00:13:20,220
of the suburb, how do we then
get to the kind of dense,

328
00:13:20,290 --> 00:13:22,630
I guess upzoned but

329
00:13:22,630 --> 00:13:25,120
but seemingly kind of
desirable place to live?

330
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,640
That that, you know, we like
the, the kind of

331
00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,160
the Georgian apartments, things like that

332
00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,530
or you know, in Spain, the
kind of nice bits of Madrid

333
00:13:32,530 --> 00:13:34,450
or the, the, the or
Barcelona, things like that.

334
00:13:34,450 --> 00:13:37,150
Like how do we get from
the emergence of suburbs

335
00:13:37,150 --> 00:13:40,750
to this sort of beautiful,
gentle, dense city that

336
00:13:40,750 --> 00:13:42,340
- Oh, they started as
beautiful gentle density.

337
00:13:42,340 --> 00:13:44,920
- Okay,
- So that's one of the, if

338
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,920
for like us reading about
this now, that's one

339
00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:52,150
of the elements which is a bit
like surprising or confusing

340
00:13:52,150 --> 00:13:54,070
or confounds our expectations a bit

341
00:13:54,070 --> 00:13:57,160
because we have this
like papier mache villain

342
00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,940
of low density suburbia where
it's like car dependent,

343
00:14:00,940 --> 00:14:04,210
extremely low densities,
totally single use

344
00:14:04,210 --> 00:14:08,320
and you know, it's a, an easy
thing for us to be against.

345
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,420
Whereas your early suburbs in the 18th

346
00:14:10,420 --> 00:14:14,890
and 19th century were very
beautiful, gentle density,

347
00:14:14,890 --> 00:14:16,240
like far above the densities

348
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,250
that you'd build a suburb
out nowadays, normally,

349
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,090
and they're all, I mean
certainly ones from the 18th

350
00:14:22,090 --> 00:14:23,170
century, will all be under heavy

351
00:14:23,170 --> 00:14:24,580
heritage protection now.

352
00:14:24,580 --> 00:14:27,520
So when we look
at these neighbourhoods,

353
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,230
virtually everyone feels
positive affect towards them

354
00:14:32,230 --> 00:14:35,140
and they really don't feel
like, oh, this is a villain

355
00:14:35,140 --> 00:14:36,220
of the urbanism story.

356
00:14:36,220 --> 00:14:38,440
This is a real hero of
the, of the urbanism story.

357
00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,780
But it's generally, I
mean on the whole, the very fact

358
00:14:43,780 --> 00:14:46,330
that the private sector
brings in these covenant

359
00:14:46,330 --> 00:14:50,080
restrictions explodes some

360
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:53,210
of the standard narratives about
density restrictions was it

361
00:14:53,210 --> 00:14:57,260
shows when these
restrictions were introduced,

362
00:14:57,260 --> 00:15:00,020
they were actually value
maximising for the neighbourhood.

363
00:15:00,020 --> 00:15:03,860
It's kind of seems
like a paradox that by

364
00:15:03,860 --> 00:15:06,500
losing rights over your property,

365
00:15:06,500 --> 00:15:08,840
you actually gained property value overall

366
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,240
because even though those
rights were valuable to you,

367
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:12,950
it was even more valuable to you

368
00:15:12,950 --> 00:15:14,570
that your neighbour had
lost the rights

369
00:15:14,570 --> 00:15:16,610
to do things that might
compromise your property value.

370
00:15:16,610 --> 00:15:17,630
- Yeah, I mean it's not, not

371
00:15:17,630 --> 00:15:18,830
that it's not that crazy, right?

372
00:15:18,830 --> 00:15:20,480
Like I'm very happy

373
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,940
that my neighbour doesn't really
have the right to play music

374
00:15:22,940 --> 00:15:24,530
after midnight and you know,

375
00:15:24,530 --> 00:15:26,660
maybe once in a few years
I'd like to play music

376
00:15:26,660 --> 00:15:28,655
after midnight, but it's
definitely worth it to me.

377
00:15:28,655 --> 00:15:30,650
Yeah, that's right. That we
both have that, we both have

378
00:15:30,650 --> 00:15:32,570
our, our hands constrained on that.

379
00:15:32,570 --> 00:15:33,830
- Yeah, it's not crazy at all.

380
00:15:33,830 --> 00:15:35,720
And that's another thing,
like researching the history

381
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:37,850
of this has made me a bit more,

382
00:15:37,850 --> 00:15:40,940
I mean I come from a background
of working on housing reform

383
00:15:40,940 --> 00:15:43,670
and specifically on like
pro densification reform,

384
00:15:43,670 --> 00:15:46,280
but looking at the history has made me

385
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,290
have a somewhat more nuanced view about it

386
00:15:48,290 --> 00:15:51,560
because you can see like a
lot of this stuff was kind

387
00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:53,060
of solving a collective action problem.

388
00:15:53,900 --> 00:15:57,020
And these were like, in a way this is,

389
00:15:57,020 --> 00:15:58,940
these are societies
without a housing shortage.

390
00:15:58,940 --> 00:16:00,320
I mean they had housing
shortages in the sense

391
00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,480
that they were extremely poor
and often very overcrowded

392
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,580
and so on, but they were without
a housing shortage in the

393
00:16:04,580 --> 00:16:07,880
sense that floor space values
were equal to build cost.

394
00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:09,140
- What do you mean by that? Just explain,

395
00:16:09,140 --> 00:16:10,460
explain why that's significant.

396
00:16:10,460 --> 00:16:13,430
- So if you've got restrictions
on house building imposed

397
00:16:13,430 --> 00:16:16,610
by the state and they're
quite tight restrictions,

398
00:16:16,610 --> 00:16:19,010
then gradually floor space

399
00:16:19,010 --> 00:16:20,930
that starts being the state
starts stopping you from

400
00:16:20,930 --> 00:16:22,520
creating floor space - building stuff.

401
00:16:23,510 --> 00:16:27,290
Even when the floor space
that you created would be

402
00:16:28,730 --> 00:16:31,010
sufficiently valuable, that
it would cover the cost

403
00:16:31,010 --> 00:16:34,010
of building it and more and
the type those restrictions get

404
00:16:34,010 --> 00:16:36,020
and the more people who want to build

405
00:16:36,020 --> 00:16:38,300
and can't build, the
higher prices will creep

406
00:16:38,300 --> 00:16:41,000
and you end up with a big
difference between sales prices

407
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:42,590
and, and build costs.

408
00:16:42,590 --> 00:16:45,320
And that the huge differences
all across western capitals

409
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,960
today, often like buildings
will sell for three

410
00:16:50,674 --> 00:16:51,507
or four times more than
it costs to build them,

411
00:16:51,507 --> 00:16:52,340
sometimes even bigger
differences than that.

412
00:16:52,340 --> 00:16:54,890
That's all the artefact of, of regulation.

413
00:16:54,890 --> 00:16:56,150
But that wasn't there at the time.

414
00:17:00,214 --> 00:17:01,047
At the time they were building
at like whatever density was

415
00:17:01,047 --> 00:17:01,880
value maximising sales prices
were approximately the same

416
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:03,890
as build cost or just
enough above build cost

417
00:17:03,890 --> 00:17:05,600
to incentivize people to build.

418
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,550
And as soon as sales prices were drifted

419
00:17:07,550 --> 00:17:09,320
above build cost at all,
you get some more building

420
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:11,000
and they'd push the sales prices down.

421
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,610
So there was a market that
was basically ine equilibrium

422
00:17:13,610 --> 00:17:16,010
and at that point in
improving the immunity

423
00:17:16,010 --> 00:17:20,870
of these neighbourhoods by
putting in covenants was

424
00:17:20,870 --> 00:17:23,960
in the eyes of an economist
was kind of a good thing.

425
00:17:25,190 --> 00:17:27,140
Now it gets more complex than that, partly

426
00:17:27,140 --> 00:17:31,970
because like morally we might
have quite mixed feelings

427
00:17:31,970 --> 00:17:35,420
about lots of the
preferences that they were,

428
00:17:35,420 --> 00:17:37,700
that the market was satisfying here.

429
00:17:37,700 --> 00:17:40,100
So like in the United States, a big part

430
00:17:40,100 --> 00:17:42,680
of Covenanting was racial exclusion.

431
00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,930
It was white people
didn't want to live near

432
00:17:44,930 --> 00:17:49,080
to African Americans, Asian
Americans, Jewish Americans,

433
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,000
or occasionally Catholic Americans.

434
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:52,350
And so they put covenants in

435
00:17:52,350 --> 00:17:55,050
to exclude those people from
neighbourhoods in Europe.

436
00:17:55,050 --> 00:17:58,320
That doesn't seem to have,
I can't find evidence of

437
00:17:58,320 --> 00:17:59,340
that having happened in Europe,

438
00:18:00,570 --> 00:18:03,000
but obviously social class
exclusion was a huge part of it.

439
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,760
Like people want to bask
in the reflected glow

440
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:07,380
of living next to high status people.

441
00:18:07,380 --> 00:18:09,420
And that was like, of course
the 19th century people are

442
00:18:09,420 --> 00:18:10,440
much more open about this.

443
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,320
It wasn't regarded as a
particularly disruptable motive.

444
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,400
So, so like the landowners
will be totally clear,

445
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,320
like we are going to
make here a neighbourhood

446
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:20,610
for the best sort of people.

447
00:18:20,610 --> 00:18:21,750
Nobody else will be allowed in

448
00:18:21,750 --> 00:18:22,890
except as servants or whatever.

449
00:18:23,730 --> 00:18:26,820
So it's morally quite chequered.

450
00:18:26,820 --> 00:18:31,110
It's a, the preference is that
the market is solving here,

451
00:18:31,110 --> 00:18:32,670
you know, the market is the,

452
00:18:32,670 --> 00:18:35,280
the reason why your prices go
up when you have covenants is

453
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,850
partly because people are
being protected from noise

454
00:18:38,850 --> 00:18:42,900
and traffic and disease

455
00:18:42,900 --> 00:18:46,080
and overcrowding and tall
buildings cutting out their light

456
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:47,370
and all the trees being cut down

457
00:18:47,370 --> 00:18:50,400
and stuff that's like morally neutral.

458
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,580
But it is also partly like
various kinds of social exclusion

459
00:18:53,580 --> 00:18:55,920
and both of those are part of
the story we can't like ...

460
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,270
- So I wanna go back to the
start of the story here.

461
00:18:57,270 --> 00:19:00,180
So we, it sounds like we're
starting off with the first,

462
00:19:00,180 --> 00:19:02,190
the first bits being in
lots of different places,

463
00:19:02,190 --> 00:19:04,350
the first bits of downzoning
being in many different

464
00:19:04,350 --> 00:19:06,810
countries, but the UK
included private downzoning

465
00:19:06,810 --> 00:19:08,760
and I'm gonna speak for you

466
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,350
and say your, when you said
the great estates you're

467
00:19:10,350 --> 00:19:13,050
thinking of like Belgravia
and, and places like that.

468
00:19:13,050 --> 00:19:15,690
What I'm interested in is you
then said the state starts

469
00:19:15,690 --> 00:19:17,010
doing it in certain places

470
00:19:17,010 --> 00:19:19,860
and I think you said Frankfurt
was the, was the first place.

471
00:19:20,940 --> 00:19:22,650
What, like what do they downzone it to?

472
00:19:22,650 --> 00:19:26,070
So I can see in my mind
Belgravia, we've got like four

473
00:19:26,070 --> 00:19:28,740
to six story townhouses basically.

474
00:19:28,740 --> 00:19:30,750
And instead they have gardens

475
00:19:30,750 --> 00:19:33,060
and they're not maximally
full up of people

476
00:19:33,060 --> 00:19:34,890
and in the city they're
presumably filling in like

477
00:19:34,890 --> 00:19:36,270
every bit of space.

478
00:19:36,270 --> 00:19:37,800
What's happening in
Frankfurt, what are they,

479
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,330
what are they downzoning it to?

480
00:19:39,330 --> 00:19:41,460
- So there's a tendency in all
countries for the densities

481
00:19:41,460 --> 00:19:42,810
to fall over time.

482
00:19:42,810 --> 00:19:44,250
And that's basically

483
00:19:44,250 --> 00:19:47,550
because like the densities of
suburbs are falling over time.

484
00:19:47,550 --> 00:19:49,200
I think probably the main driver of

485
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,180
that is railways developing,

486
00:19:51,180 --> 00:19:56,180
which mean like opens up
large expanses of spaces for

487
00:19:56,250 --> 00:19:57,450
low density housing

488
00:19:57,450 --> 00:19:59,850
and you can have your,

489
00:19:59,850 --> 00:20:02,310
in Germany they'd call
them villa colonies.

490
00:20:02,310 --> 00:20:03,390
So they're like a colony

491
00:20:03,390 --> 00:20:07,080
of large detached houses in
the middle of the countryside

492
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,460
built around a railway station.

493
00:20:08,460 --> 00:20:10,050
And then you take your train,
you can get into the city

494
00:20:10,050 --> 00:20:13,020
centre for work every day those, so

495
00:20:13,020 --> 00:20:15,510
by the late 19th century at the top

496
00:20:15,510 --> 00:20:19,830
of the market you are usually
looking at big detached

497
00:20:19,830 --> 00:20:22,920
stories with like big detached
houses with two stories

498
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:24,900
or maybe two stories plus a basement

499
00:20:24,900 --> 00:20:27,030
or a roof story or something like that.

500
00:20:27,030 --> 00:20:31,170
And that's true probably all around the

501
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:35,940
Britain, France, Germany,
British Empire, United States,

502
00:20:35,940 --> 00:20:38,280
that's like the elite housing
type that they like, so

503
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,290
by the end of the 19th
century we are talking about

504
00:20:40,290 --> 00:20:43,685
densities that aren't so far
off what you'd get in a

505
00:20:43,685 --> 00:20:45,540
a rich suburb today.

506
00:20:45,540 --> 00:20:48,430
But covenants also operate
lower points in the market.

507
00:20:48,430 --> 00:20:51,160
So middle class suburbs will
also generally be covenanted

508
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,290
and those will still be at
somewhat high densities.

509
00:20:53,290 --> 00:20:54,280
Those are still like two story

510
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,080
terraced houses at that point.

511
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:56,913
So what happens next?

512
00:20:56,913 --> 00:20:58,390
So the problem

513
00:20:58,390 --> 00:21:03,390
with covenants is they don't,
I mean people really want

514
00:21:03,610 --> 00:21:06,970
what they purport to offer
restrictions on density,

515
00:21:06,970 --> 00:21:10,690
restrictions on use, but covenants are not

516
00:21:10,690 --> 00:21:11,710
very good at providing it.

517
00:21:12,940 --> 00:21:14,800
So they've got a bunch of weaknesses.

518
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,770
For one thing, they're really
expensive, you have to,

519
00:21:17,770 --> 00:21:18,910
I mean they're not
expensive, they cost nothing

520
00:21:18,910 --> 00:21:20,920
to put in place, but to
enforce them you have

521
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,210
to have a lawsuit.

522
00:21:22,210 --> 00:21:23,500
I asked some lawyers about this

523
00:21:23,500 --> 00:21:26,800
and they said in Britain today
you'd have a starting price

524
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:31,360
of 25,000 pounds to bring a
lawsuit to enforce a covenant

525
00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:33,310
and it could go way higher than that.

526
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,120
That's to anticipate what
we'll talk about later.

527
00:21:37,120 --> 00:21:39,460
That's much more money than
it cost to local government

528
00:21:39,460 --> 00:21:42,520
to enforce zoning
restriction - like maybe 10

529
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:43,600
times more money than it cost to.

530
00:21:45,220 --> 00:21:49,330
They are, they're not, courts
don't always enforce them.

531
00:21:49,330 --> 00:21:51,430
They're kind of taught,
law courts don't always

532
00:21:51,430 --> 00:21:52,660
accept that they're reasonable.

533
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:58,210
They also have a very serious
collective action problem.

534
00:21:58,210 --> 00:22:00,880
So most of them are in London

535
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,740
as we discuss the Great
Estates sometimes enforce them,

536
00:22:02,740 --> 00:22:06,700
but in most countries you
are reliant on neighbours

537
00:22:06,700 --> 00:22:08,320
to enforce them against
each other, the system

538
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:09,790
of reciprocal enforcement.

539
00:22:09,790 --> 00:22:12,760
So for any given neighbour
you think, well I don't want

540
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,650
to be the one who pays 25,000 pounds

541
00:22:14,650 --> 00:22:16,330
to enforce against this guy

542
00:22:16,330 --> 00:22:19,210
for like building an
extension in its vanguard.

543
00:22:19,210 --> 00:22:21,670
Couldn't someone
else in the neighbourhood

544
00:22:21,670 --> 00:22:22,840
take the, take the hit on this.

545
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,540
And even if it's doing
more than 25,000 pounds

546
00:22:25,540 --> 00:22:27,160
of aggregate damage to the neighbourhood,

547
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,230
it's probably not doing
25,000 pounds of damage

548
00:22:29,230 --> 00:22:31,180
to any given person in the neighbourhood.

549
00:22:31,180 --> 00:22:33,190
So there's a serious free rider problem

550
00:22:33,190 --> 00:22:34,930
and that means you tend to
get very little enforcement.

551
00:22:34,930 --> 00:22:36,130
The other key weakness

552
00:22:36,130 --> 00:22:39,970
that covenants have is they can't
be imposed retroactively on

553
00:22:39,970 --> 00:22:41,620
neighbourhoods that didn't
have them at first.

554
00:22:41,620 --> 00:22:44,260
And you also can't fix
loopholes with covenants.

555
00:22:44,260 --> 00:22:46,480
So if there's something
imperfect in the drafting,

556
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:47,680
which there frequently was,

557
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,360
or if there were kinds of densification

558
00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:52,330
that they hadn't anticipated,
which frequently happened,

559
00:22:52,330 --> 00:22:53,920
there's nothing you can do about it.

560
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,230
This became a huge problem
in the first world war

561
00:22:56,230 --> 00:22:59,980
because the, in the 19th
century, most European countries,

562
00:22:59,980 --> 00:23:02,200
so the one of the totally
standard, the most common kinds

563
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,920
of zoning, zoning rule, covenant rule was

564
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:07,450
a minimum price threshold.

565
00:23:07,450 --> 00:23:10,480
Really simple and would just
exclude all the people you

566
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,220
don't want and exclude flats being built

567
00:23:12,220 --> 00:23:13,420
and exclude holes from being built

568
00:23:14,650 --> 00:23:18,310
The price thresholds were
always fixed in nominal terms,

569
00:23:18,310 --> 00:23:19,660
which worked fine in the 19th century

570
00:23:19,660 --> 00:23:21,400
because there was no inflation.

571
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,800
1914 inflation takes off

572
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,320
and pretty quickly all these
price thresholds become

573
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:27,153
trivially easy to reach to, to meet.

574
00:23:27,153 --> 00:23:27,986
So this whole part

575
00:23:29,710 --> 00:23:32,590
of the covenanting system
just collapses straight away

576
00:23:32,590 --> 00:23:33,880
and there's nothing they can do about it

577
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:35,230
because they can't go back

578
00:23:35,230 --> 00:23:36,460
and impose a contract on people

579
00:23:36,460 --> 00:23:37,570
that they haven't signed up to.

580
00:23:38,710 --> 00:23:43,030
So it's like theoretically the system,

581
00:23:43,030 --> 00:23:45,950
the covenanting thing is
fascinating for what it shows about

582
00:23:45,950 --> 00:23:49,700
how much people wanted some kind of zoning

583
00:23:51,410 --> 00:23:55,100
and it was sometimes
effective in some places,

584
00:23:55,100 --> 00:23:58,880
but basically it was like
a rickety weak system which

585
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,920
often collapsed under pressure.

586
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:02,780
And we had some great
cases of neighbourhoods

587
00:24:02,780 --> 00:24:04,790
where once pressures

588
00:24:04,790 --> 00:24:06,710
for densification grew really strong,

589
00:24:06,710 --> 00:24:07,820
the covenants just collapsed

590
00:24:07,820 --> 00:24:09,890
and were unable to stop them from

591
00:24:09,890 --> 00:24:11,840
stopping densification from happening.

592
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:13,700
Friedenau in Berlin is a classic example

593
00:24:13,700 --> 00:24:16,760
of this laid out beautiful
street network with lots

594
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,040
of villas then like the main body

595
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:20,300
of basic electric trams arrive

596
00:24:20,300 --> 00:24:22,130
and the main body of Berlin sweeps

597
00:24:22,130 --> 00:24:23,600
outwards, reaches freedom now.

598
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,250
And the covenants basically do nothing.

599
00:24:25,250 --> 00:24:26,930
The whole neighbourhood
is turned into blocks

600
00:24:26,930 --> 00:24:28,910
of dense flats pretty quickly

601
00:24:28,910 --> 00:24:31,220
and there's only today
you can just find like,

602
00:24:31,220 --> 00:24:33,200
I dunno maybe like 10
villas left in Friedenau

603
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,450
that didn't get demolished
by the time and

604
00:24:35,450 --> 00:24:38,000
survived long enough for
listing protection to

605
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,110
come in.

606
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,310
So basically it's a system
that doesn't work very well

607
00:24:45,380 --> 00:24:49,370
then you get what, so the key thing

608
00:24:49,370 --> 00:24:52,910
that happens next is the state
starts to provide the kind

609
00:24:52,910 --> 00:24:55,100
of protections that the private
sector is trying to provide

610
00:24:55,100 --> 00:24:56,960
but is not very good at providing.

611
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,440
And the country that starts
in, as I said earlier, Germany

612
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,530
and Austria-Hungary, we don't
really have a very good theory

613
00:25:03,530 --> 00:25:05,270
for why it's in those countries.

614
00:25:05,270 --> 00:25:07,670
They're not the countries
where suburbia is oldest

615
00:25:07,670 --> 00:25:10,610
but probably, the standard
theory that planners have,

616
00:25:10,610 --> 00:25:13,580
the planning historians
have is these are countries

617
00:25:13,580 --> 00:25:15,470
with the sort of relatively
authoritarian tradition

618
00:25:15,470 --> 00:25:17,990
of government and so they're more happy

619
00:25:17,990 --> 00:25:21,230
to have zoning controls than
other places are, so

620
00:25:21,230 --> 00:25:26,230
that first gets introduced
1880s, 1890s spreads across

621
00:25:26,300 --> 00:25:29,060
the rest of German speaking
Europe over the next two decades

622
00:25:29,060 --> 00:25:31,310
and then spreads across
other countries in the,

623
00:25:31,310 --> 00:25:32,690
in the decades after that.

624
00:25:33,770 --> 00:25:37,940
And it's not at the
time very controversial.

625
00:25:37,940 --> 00:25:42,560
There's like, people tend
to regard the introduction

626
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,160
of zoning in existing
urban areas as like kind

627
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,470
of a straightforwardly
a good thing to exist,

628
00:25:48,470 --> 00:25:50,630
The local people like it,

629
00:25:50,630 --> 00:25:52,370
but there's no no sense this is going

630
00:25:52,370 --> 00:25:53,930
to cause a housing crisis in the long run

631
00:25:53,930 --> 00:25:55,220
or going to like seriously constrained

632
00:25:55,220 --> 00:25:56,300
housing supply in the long run.

633
00:25:56,300 --> 00:25:57,650
So there's no sort

634
00:25:57,650 --> 00:26:01,550
of big pressure in the other
direction from economists or,

635
00:26:01,550 --> 00:26:02,870
or people worried about housing need.

636
00:26:04,340 --> 00:26:07,910
The, the main determinant of
which countries it spreads

637
00:26:07,910 --> 00:26:09,770
to tends to be like

638
00:26:09,770 --> 00:26:12,230
how much densification is
going on in those countries,

639
00:26:12,230 --> 00:26:14,090
how threatened people
feel by densification

640
00:26:14,090 --> 00:26:15,290
and how much pressure they put on the

641
00:26:15,290 --> 00:26:16,880
government to do something about it.

642
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,430
So there are some places
where it takes ages to arrive,

643
00:26:19,430 --> 00:26:21,530
but that tends not to be
because there are like

644
00:26:21,530 --> 00:26:22,610
principled opponents.

645
00:26:22,610 --> 00:26:25,490
It tends just to be because
densification wasn't a thing

646
00:26:25,490 --> 00:26:28,310
and so the state doesn't,
get round to doing this.

647
00:26:28,310 --> 00:26:30,500
So where are those places
where it comes in late?

648
00:26:30,500 --> 00:26:34,340
So you've got countries
like Ireland, New Zealand

649
00:26:34,340 --> 00:26:35,660
and so on where it doesn't,

650
00:26:35,660 --> 00:26:37,220
they didn't even have
planning systems really

651
00:26:37,220 --> 00:26:39,140
until like the 1960s.

652
00:26:40,250 --> 00:26:43,230
The other really interesting case is,

653
00:26:43,230 --> 00:26:44,790
well the weird case is Britain

654
00:26:44,790 --> 00:26:47,610
and France, which do have,

655
00:26:47,610 --> 00:26:50,280
I mean France always
builds pretty densely.

656
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,650
Britain has some densification
going on in the Victorian

657
00:26:52,650 --> 00:26:54,480
period, the Edwardian period

658
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,080
and the first World War they
introduced rent controls which,

659
00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:59,340
and the private, so the market

660
00:26:59,340 --> 00:27:03,900
for flat building is completely
dependent upon build-to-let.

661
00:27:03,900 --> 00:27:05,820
Basically they, in France they don't,

662
00:27:05,820 --> 00:27:09,300
I don't think there's even a
way in which a building can be

663
00:27:09,300 --> 00:27:11,190
owned by multiple owners at the same time.

664
00:27:11,190 --> 00:27:12,630
They do have one now copropriété,

665
00:27:12,630 --> 00:27:14,220
which is like condominium ownership,

666
00:27:14,220 --> 00:27:17,100
but it doesn't, literally,
there is nothing in 1914.

667
00:27:17,100 --> 00:27:19,920
So it becomes, once rent controls kick in,

668
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,870
it becomes financially kind of impossible

669
00:27:21,870 --> 00:27:24,990
to build anything except
for single family housing

670
00:27:24,990 --> 00:27:27,180
to be sold into owner occupation.

671
00:27:27,180 --> 00:27:28,830
Britain does have the leasehold system,

672
00:27:28,830 --> 00:27:31,170
but it's unpopular for flats.

673
00:27:31,170 --> 00:27:33,570
So basically flat building is killed off

674
00:27:33,570 --> 00:27:35,160
in the first world war.

675
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,590
It comes back only very fitfully when bits

676
00:27:37,590 --> 00:27:40,440
of the market are decontrolled
in the interwar period

677
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:41,880
and the postwar period.

678
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,780
And it's not until like quite
late in the 20th century that

679
00:27:45,780 --> 00:27:48,060
the market,

680
00:27:48,060 --> 00:27:50,370
the rental market is
de-controlled in both countries

681
00:27:50,370 --> 00:27:52,560
and flat building
becomes a big deal again.

682
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,230
- Is it, is there a
reason that building flats

683
00:27:55,230 --> 00:27:57,510
to sell wasn't happening at this point?

684
00:27:57,510 --> 00:27:58,680
- So France, it's just

685
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:03,480
because they lack a system for people

686
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,180
to own flats in a building

687
00:28:06,180 --> 00:28:07,830
that's also owned by someone else.

688
00:28:07,830 --> 00:28:08,910
- So for example, in the,

689
00:28:08,910 --> 00:28:11,790
in the US when they
invent condominiums,

690
00:28:11,790 --> 00:28:13,925
they get a massive explosion
in building flats to sell them.

691
00:28:13,925 --> 00:28:15,600
But they don't have them,
they don't, no one does it

692
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,970
before then because
there's no legal, it's amazing

693
00:28:17,970 --> 00:28:19,380
how individual legal tools can,

694
00:28:19,380 --> 00:28:21,360
- How did the con how did
the condominium get invented?

695
00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:23,160
- So they just realised that wait,

696
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,840
we've invented homeowner associations

697
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:26,250
and you could actually just apply them

698
00:28:26,250 --> 00:28:27,750
to individual buildings as well.

699
00:28:27,750 --> 00:28:29,580
So let's do it.

700
00:28:29,580 --> 00:28:30,991
I could be wrong on the
exact details of that.

701
00:28:30,991 --> 00:28:33,420
Yes, but it's essentially the
same legal title as home ...

702
00:28:33,420 --> 00:28:34,350
- It was a slightly sort of trial

703
00:28:34,350 --> 00:28:35,400
and error process as well, right?

704
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,250
They started building
cooperatives was an as an early,

705
00:28:38,250 --> 00:28:41,550
which is a different legal
structure which still exists in

706
00:28:41,550 --> 00:28:43,170
like properties from the 1890s.

707
00:28:43,170 --> 00:28:44,820
- Yeah. But they barely,
they barely ever took off.

708
00:28:44,820 --> 00:28:46,890
Cooperatives basically
only exist with subsidy

709
00:28:46,890 --> 00:28:48,570
and they, what's the difference
between a cooperative

710
00:28:48,570 --> 00:28:50,520
and a, so I I can't give you,

711
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:51,353
I can't give you a proper answer roughly.

712
00:28:51,353 --> 00:28:52,186
My papier mache understanding

713
00:28:54,510 --> 00:28:55,890
I mean I'm not a American

714
00:28:55,890 --> 00:28:57,270
and I don't really, I'm not
really across the detail,

715
00:28:57,270 --> 00:29:01,440
but my, my understanding is condominium is

716
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,290
where the underlying fabric
of the building is owned

717
00:29:04,290 --> 00:29:06,990
by everyone and then each flat is owned

718
00:29:06,990 --> 00:29:08,970
by the people who live in that flat.

719
00:29:08,970 --> 00:29:11,820
Whereas cooperative is where
like the whole thing is owned

720
00:29:11,820 --> 00:29:14,160
by everyone and then in a
complicated way you are given use

721
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:15,600
rights to different parts of the building.

722
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,420
- I see. - So you get a
result which is pretty similar

723
00:29:18,420 --> 00:29:19,740
but through a legal structure,

724
00:29:19,740 --> 00:29:21,180
which is in some ways quite different.

725
00:29:21,180 --> 00:29:23,310
And that is sort of, they're kind

726
00:29:23,310 --> 00:29:25,230
of mythic the cooperatives,
right? The kind of, they

727
00:29:25,230 --> 00:29:26,550
- Still exists in New York in certain

728
00:29:26,550 --> 00:29:27,870
places and in other countries as well.

729
00:29:27,870 --> 00:29:31,740
But my understanding is
there has never been a mass

730
00:29:31,740 --> 00:29:34,500
cooperative build out except
for in periods where  - that's

731
00:29:34,500 --> 00:29:35,730
how they did social housing -

732
00:29:35,730 --> 00:29:38,550
So in various periods the main
way they've subsidised social

733
00:29:38,550 --> 00:29:39,900
housing is through co-ops
and then you've seen

734
00:29:39,900 --> 00:29:41,170
co-op buildings sprout up.

735
00:29:41,170 --> 00:29:42,760
But other than that you just don't

736
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:44,170
see them get built.

737
00:29:44,170 --> 00:29:48,130
But the amazing thing is that,
like Samuel was saying, the

738
00:29:48,130 --> 00:29:49,810
unless you have condominium title,

739
00:29:49,810 --> 00:29:51,640
no one builds flats for sale.

740
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,190
And in the UK we did see some built

741
00:29:54,190 --> 00:29:55,330
through the leasehold system like that.

742
00:29:55,330 --> 00:29:58,630
But my impression is that from the 1890s

743
00:29:58,630 --> 00:29:59,800
freeholders basically believe

744
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,470
that one day they were gonna
beated from their leaseholds,

745
00:30:02,470 --> 00:30:03,520
which eventually happened within

746
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:04,565
enfranchisement in the 1960s.

747
00:30:04,565 --> 00:30:06,130
Yeah, that's right. And so
they were right about that.

748
00:30:06,130 --> 00:30:08,380
And so they were were
reluctant to build leaseholds

749
00:30:08,380 --> 00:30:10,450
because they knew they were
gonna be taken off them at some

750
00:30:10,450 --> 00:30:12,280
point in the next like five decades.

751
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:13,960
- They were actually amazingly prescient.

752
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,735
They, they standard lease sold
leaseholds on an 80 year time

753
00:30:16,735 --> 00:30:21,220
span and in about the 1880s
they started thinking, yeah,

754
00:30:21,220 --> 00:30:23,080
I reckon that the state is going

755
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,660
to somehow steal the
freehold from me at some point.

756
00:30:25,660 --> 00:30:29,660
And it sure enough it was
exactly 80 years later.

757
00:30:32,380 --> 00:30:33,550
Can you just briefly explain
the difference between a
freehold and a leasehold?

758
00:30:33,550 --> 00:30:34,930
- So freehold is normal ownership

759
00:30:34,930 --> 00:30:36,850
that everyone's very familiar with.

760
00:30:36,850 --> 00:30:40,780
In some countries, like
primarily the UK we've retained a

761
00:30:40,780 --> 00:30:43,720
kind of feudal type of sub ownership

762
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,540
and it could go infinite number
of times downwards as well.

763
00:30:46,540 --> 00:30:49,120
So in the Victorian area
you'd often have one guy own

764
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:50,980
something and then he
rents out the right to

765
00:30:50,980 --> 00:30:53,050
or sells off the right to own it

766
00:30:53,050 --> 00:30:54,250
for a given number of years.

767
00:30:54,250 --> 00:30:55,660
That's the leasehold to someone else.

768
00:30:55,660 --> 00:30:57,730
And then that guy sells
the right the sublet

769
00:30:57,730 --> 00:30:59,560
to to another person.

770
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,450
And it can go very, very far through.

771
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,530
And this has been retained in
its full form in places like

772
00:31:05,530 --> 00:31:07,360
Hong Kong and Singapore

773
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,880
where they took the British
legal leasehold system

774
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,790
and they've retained the
fact that after 99 years

775
00:31:12,790 --> 00:31:15,910
or 999 years, you will
in fact be kicked out

776
00:31:15,910 --> 00:31:17,680
and they can demolish the
building and redevelop it

777
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,080
or do whatever they like with
it, sell it to someone else.

778
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,710
In the UK in the 1960s
with enfranchisement,

779
00:31:23,710 --> 00:31:26,950
you got the right to stay
in your leasehold building

780
00:31:26,950 --> 00:31:28,090
after a certain period of time.

781
00:31:28,090 --> 00:31:29,350
And then if franchisement was,

782
00:31:29,350 --> 00:31:32,020
was strengthened various
times, including in the 1990s.

783
00:31:32,020 --> 00:31:35,110
And so now if you're a
free holder, you don't,

784
00:31:35,110 --> 00:31:37,210
you're not really a free
holder in the sense we would

785
00:31:37,210 --> 00:31:39,220
usually have understood it before 1960s

786
00:31:39,220 --> 00:31:41,650
because you can't kick a
lease holder out even when the

787
00:31:41,650 --> 00:31:43,810
lease comes due and they have the right to

788
00:31:44,740 --> 00:31:47,860
extend it at a rate set
by a tribunal rather than

789
00:31:47,860 --> 00:31:50,530
you accepting it as a a bid.

790
00:31:50,530 --> 00:31:52,960
But before that point you
could have done leasehold.

791
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,730
I reckon that in the 1930s, one if the,

792
00:31:55,730 --> 00:31:57,910
the reason why the flats
didn't go that big is

793
00:31:57,910 --> 00:32:01,030
because of leaseholders, so
free holders didn't expect

794
00:32:01,030 --> 00:32:02,500
that they'd be able to resell

795
00:32:02,500 --> 00:32:03,880
leaseholds going into the future.

796
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,370
- Yeah, people also, like flats were seen

797
00:32:06,370 --> 00:32:08,020
as a very transient people.

798
00:32:08,020 --> 00:32:09,790
Even today people often prefer

799
00:32:09,790 --> 00:32:11,230
to rent flats rather than buy them

800
00:32:11,230 --> 00:32:13,120
because they don't expect to
stay in flats for that long.

801
00:32:14,170 --> 00:32:15,190
- I guess there's also, I mean the thing

802
00:32:15,190 --> 00:32:17,530
that always puts me off
buying a flat is the risk

803
00:32:17,530 --> 00:32:19,480
and yeah, exactly the fact,
fact that you're much more

804
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,390
exposed to risk if you've got
a bad neighbour as in a flat

805
00:32:22,390 --> 00:32:24,010
and owning that is obviously much, much,

806
00:32:24,010 --> 00:32:26,260
much riskier than renting
it for however many years.

807
00:32:26,260 --> 00:32:28,630
So maybe that, maybe that
kind of thing is a factor.

808
00:32:28,630 --> 00:32:31,240
- So the English and the
Americans have these,

809
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,610
the English have this weird
feudal leasehold model

810
00:32:33,610 --> 00:32:34,990
and they can kind of start carrying

811
00:32:34,990 --> 00:32:36,280
that over gradually to flats.

812
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:37,360
But the market's quite reluctant.

813
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,650
The Americans have cooperative
model which they've developed

814
00:32:39,650 --> 00:32:40,790
in for homeowner associations.

815
00:32:40,790 --> 00:32:42,260
They can sort of start carrying that over

816
00:32:42,260 --> 00:32:44,030
to flats in France.

817
00:32:44,030 --> 00:32:45,770
They've got like nothing.

818
00:32:45,770 --> 00:32:48,800
They really, the only way
you've ever done flats is

819
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,480
through renting and
there's just no legal way

820
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,660
to divide a building
between a bunch of people.

821
00:32:53,660 --> 00:32:56,600
So they, when French introduced
rent controls, there are,

822
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,020
I mean these quite amazing
to go out to the, these

823
00:33:00,890 --> 00:33:02,540
communion, the Paris region

824
00:33:02,540 --> 00:33:06,020
and you can see blocks of flats
that were finished in 1914

825
00:33:06,020 --> 00:33:08,630
and then just like little
houses built next door

826
00:33:08,630 --> 00:33:12,020
because it became impossible
to build flats as soon

827
00:33:12,020 --> 00:33:14,150
as the war had had broken out.

828
00:33:14,150 --> 00:33:17,060
And the market just like was completely

829
00:33:17,060 --> 00:33:18,320
vaporised for decades.

830
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,320
And France, I mean the main
effect was a massive dead weight

831
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,470
loss because the French housing
market wasn't really ready

832
00:33:24,470 --> 00:33:26,300
for loads of single family houses,

833
00:33:26,300 --> 00:33:28,850
but they did also build quite
a lot of single family houses.

834
00:33:28,850 --> 00:33:30,230
And the French started to fall in love

835
00:33:30,230 --> 00:33:32,030
with suburbia in a way that they,

836
00:33:32,030 --> 00:33:34,310
like unbeknownst we never
talk about French suburbia,

837
00:33:34,310 --> 00:33:37,250
it's kind of unbeknownst to
English and American people,

838
00:33:37,250 --> 00:33:38,840
but like it is actually a huge thing.

839
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:40,850
And it did all start
through this weird story

840
00:33:40,850 --> 00:33:43,010
of rent controls in the,
in the first world war.

841
00:33:43,010 --> 00:33:47,480
- So the sequence is you have
what you are calling kind

842
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,540
of early suburbia, which is
much, much, much denser than

843
00:33:50,540 --> 00:33:52,070
what we would imagine today.

844
00:33:52,070 --> 00:33:54,260
That then begins to become even denser

845
00:33:54,260 --> 00:33:55,940
as apartments become possible.

846
00:33:55,940 --> 00:33:59,030
People begin to be, to get
quite upset about that.

847
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,200
Then the second, sorry,
the first World war hits,

848
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:04,370
and rent controls hits,

849
00:34:04,370 --> 00:34:06,050
and then that sort of freezes everything.

850
00:34:06,050 --> 00:34:07,610
And then while the,

851
00:34:07,610 --> 00:34:10,250
world is
frozen via rent controls

852
00:34:10,250 --> 00:34:12,830
or at least Britain and France
are frozen by rent controls,

853
00:34:12,830 --> 00:34:16,190
this state downzoning also
kicks in and means that even

854
00:34:16,190 --> 00:34:19,190
after the rent controls are
removed, you are stuck or,

855
00:34:19,190 --> 00:34:21,380
basically you can never
go back to the, to the sort

856
00:34:21,380 --> 00:34:22,460
of apartments that you had before.

857
00:34:22,460 --> 00:34:23,990
- Yeah, that's right. So
what happened in Britain

858
00:34:23,990 --> 00:34:26,930
and France, the state downzoning,

859
00:34:26,930 --> 00:34:30,710
public downzoning comes in very slowly.

860
00:34:30,710 --> 00:34:32,750
They don't really bother with
it in the interwar period

861
00:34:32,750 --> 00:34:34,280
because there's no pressure for it.

862
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,230
But it kind of comes in almost maybe

863
00:34:36,230 --> 00:34:37,970
by accident in the post-war period

864
00:34:37,970 --> 00:34:40,130
where local officials say like,

865
00:34:40,130 --> 00:34:41,810
oh we're putting a local plan in place,

866
00:34:41,810 --> 00:34:43,850
I guess we'll ban putting,
you know, turning these,

867
00:34:43,850 --> 00:34:46,010
these terraced houses into flats

868
00:34:46,010 --> 00:34:47,210
and like it's not gonna happen anyway.

869
00:34:47,210 --> 00:34:48,830
But we might as well ban
it 'cause it's clearly

870
00:34:48,830 --> 00:34:50,480
an anti-social thing to do.

871
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,880
That's, there's no
controversy at the time.

872
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:54,110
Nothing's ever written about it,

873
00:34:55,430 --> 00:34:58,280
but we notice it when the restrictions,

874
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,350
the rent controls are finally removed

875
00:35:00,350 --> 00:35:04,370
because in 1980 In the eighties,
yeah, eighties in Britain

876
00:35:04,370 --> 00:35:05,780
and in France a bit more gradually.

877
00:35:05,780 --> 00:35:07,190
- Oh, so the so sorry. So the rent,

878
00:35:07,190 --> 00:35:08,300
the rent controls are present

879
00:35:08,300 --> 00:35:09,530
for most of the 20th century, right?

880
00:35:09,530 --> 00:35:10,850
- Oh yeah. In Britain, right?

881
00:35:10,850 --> 00:35:14,090
There are rent controls
from the what, 1914?

882
00:35:14,090 --> 00:35:16,310
I think so sometime in the
first World War, right up

883
00:35:16,310 --> 00:35:17,990
until the Thatcher government
decon controls it in

884
00:35:17,990 --> 00:35:19,580
the 1980s.

885
00:35:19,580 --> 00:35:21,230
And it totally destroys the rental market.

886
00:35:21,230 --> 00:35:23,900
Like it falls from being a
large majority to or minority

887
00:35:23,900 --> 00:35:26,990
of the British stock in France,

888
00:35:26,990 --> 00:35:30,560
extremely tight rent controls
coming in the first world war

889
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,050
and then in the, from the late 1940s,

890
00:35:33,050 --> 00:35:35,390
the markets very gradually decontrolled.

891
00:35:35,390 --> 00:35:38,940
They you like, I think
maybe you are allowed

892
00:35:38,940 --> 00:35:42,300
existing stock stays under rent control,

893
00:35:42,300 --> 00:35:44,460
but if you heavily refurbish the property,

894
00:35:44,460 --> 00:35:45,960
you can get it out from the rent control

895
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:47,730
and there's various
sort of get out clauses

896
00:35:47,730 --> 00:35:50,310
and slowly they start to take stock out

897
00:35:50,310 --> 00:35:52,200
and there's still some of
it's still controlled today,

898
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,110
like 2% of the French housing
stock is still rent controlled

899
00:35:55,110 --> 00:35:56,760
and has been since the first world war.

900
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,170
- So what's the situation in places

901
00:35:58,170 --> 00:36:00,060
that don't bring in rent controls?

902
00:36:00,060 --> 00:36:02,730
- Basically there's much more
pressure for densification

903
00:36:02,730 --> 00:36:05,730
and government acts fast to
block it using public zoning.

904
00:36:05,730 --> 00:36:10,590
That's the state in United States, Canada,

905
00:36:10,590 --> 00:36:13,230
Australia, and then even

906
00:36:13,230 --> 00:36:14,490
before the first World War, that's

907
00:36:14,490 --> 00:36:16,890
what happens in Germany
and Austria-Hungary.

908
00:36:18,150 --> 00:36:20,670
- Okay, so I predict

909
00:36:20,670 --> 00:36:25,020
that almost everybody listening
is screaming the word car

910
00:36:25,020 --> 00:36:28,650
and you haven't mentioned
cars at any point yet so far.

911
00:36:28,650 --> 00:36:32,310
And the traditional story that
I hear that I, that I kind of

912
00:36:32,310 --> 00:36:34,560
take, I think is widely taken to be the,

913
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:39,480
the real story is you
get cars are invented,

914
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,600
people suddenly can extend
themselves out to much,

915
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:43,680
much further a field

916
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,080
and they suddenly can
afford to live somewhere

917
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:47,610
that they can have a house and a garden

918
00:36:47,610 --> 00:36:51,930
and the kind of low density
suburbia that is maybe nicer,

919
00:36:51,930 --> 00:36:53,850
maybe safer than cities,

920
00:36:53,850 --> 00:36:55,350
but they can still have a job in the city.

921
00:36:55,350 --> 00:36:59,460
And so the car kind of opens
up all of all of this land to,

922
00:36:59,460 --> 00:37:02,760
to low density building and
those people simultaneously

923
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,850
don't want those places
to be exposed to the sort

924
00:37:05,850 --> 00:37:08,130
of inner city building
that they've just left.

925
00:37:09,420 --> 00:37:11,250
Is that true? Is that part of the story?

926
00:37:11,250 --> 00:37:15,000
What's, why
are you giving the car such a,

927
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:16,740
a small role in your story? So

928
00:37:16,740 --> 00:37:17,850
- I started out thinking

929
00:37:17,850 --> 00:37:20,040
that something like that would be true.

930
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,275
I now think it's mainly not the story.

931
00:37:23,275 --> 00:37:26,520
The the basic reason to
mistrust that is that so much

932
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,770
of this process has already taken place

933
00:37:28,770 --> 00:37:30,630
before cars come into play.

934
00:37:30,630 --> 00:37:34,050
So all these private
covenants have spread to

935
00:37:34,050 --> 00:37:35,370
basically all elite suburbs

936
00:37:35,370 --> 00:37:39,180
and many, probably most middle
class suburbs before 1900

937
00:37:40,710 --> 00:37:42,360
before there are any cars at all.

938
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:43,860
So we can see there's
lots of demand for it

939
00:37:43,860 --> 00:37:45,810
and there are some mechanisms in place.

940
00:37:45,810 --> 00:37:48,690
Public zoning has arrived
in Germany and Austria

941
00:37:48,690 --> 00:37:50,130
before there are any cars

942
00:37:51,060 --> 00:37:53,040
and it's already, you know, it's,

943
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:54,090
I suppose cars are starting

944
00:37:54,090 --> 00:37:58,260
to come in in the states
in the 1910s and twenties,

945
00:37:59,430 --> 00:38:02,370
but like most of the neighbourhoods

946
00:38:02,370 --> 00:38:03,930
where zoning is introduced were built

947
00:38:03,930 --> 00:38:05,790
before cars had arrived.

948
00:38:05,790 --> 00:38:10,230
So cars don't seem
to have created the kind

949
00:38:10,230 --> 00:38:14,897
of suburbia which originally
pioneers either private
downzoning or public downzoning.

950
00:38:16,500 --> 00:38:18,210
People seem to have already wanted it

951
00:38:18,210 --> 00:38:19,043
before then.

952
00:38:19,043 --> 00:38:19,876
I think there's the tech,

953
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,610
the transport method which is closer.

954
00:38:23,610 --> 00:38:25,680
So here's a, here's a
story which I think may be

955
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:26,730
like partly true.

956
00:38:27,720 --> 00:38:31,470
So railways create, they

957
00:38:31,470 --> 00:38:34,860
do have a big role in expanding
suburbia in the 19th century

958
00:38:34,860 --> 00:38:36,160
because do make it possible

959
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,770
to live in green leafy neighbourhoods

960
00:38:38,770 --> 00:38:40,300
that are remote from the city centre

961
00:38:40,300 --> 00:38:42,670
but still commuting to
the city centre for work.

962
00:38:42,670 --> 00:38:46,330
They also have a kind of
natural exclusionary structure,

963
00:38:46,330 --> 00:38:48,130
which is that they're extremely expensive.

964
00:38:48,130 --> 00:38:52,713
I mean even today, if you take a railway
from like Seven Oaks into London, I
think it's like a 6,000 pound annual

965
00:38:55,390 --> 00:38:56,680
ticket if you want to,

966
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,210
that's the cheapest way you can do it.

967
00:38:58,210 --> 00:39:01,330
So, like commuting by

968
00:39:01,330 --> 00:39:04,270
heavy rail is still
extremely expensive now.

969
00:39:04,270 --> 00:39:06,160
It was totally prohibitively
expensive then.

970
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,580
So technology creates
neighbourhoods which are like

971
00:39:11,140 --> 00:39:12,790
impossible you can't get,
you can't live there

972
00:39:12,790 --> 00:39:13,840
unless you are very wealthy

973
00:39:15,070 --> 00:39:19,300
and those, so those are like a
natural exclusionary filter.

974
00:39:19,300 --> 00:39:22,720
And then I think probably the,
the technology which breaks

975
00:39:22,720 --> 00:39:25,000
that is to some extent the car later on.

976
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,200
But earlier on it is the

977
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,740
electric tram which
is far cheaper than railways

978
00:39:29,740 --> 00:39:32,140
and means that the like city

979
00:39:32,140 --> 00:39:34,120
of ordinary people can start spreading out

980
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:37,720
and reaching these elite
villa colonies,

981
00:39:37,720 --> 00:39:39,490
these elite islands of rich houses

982
00:39:39,490 --> 00:39:41,680
that have previously only
been accessible by railway.

983
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:46,680
I think like that story
of railways creating

984
00:39:46,750 --> 00:39:50,440
elite suburbia and then
the elite suburbia created

985
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,920
by railways being threatened by trams

986
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,380
and later on by cars which are more like

987
00:39:56,380 --> 00:39:58,480
democratic forms of transport.

988
00:39:58,480 --> 00:39:59,740
I think there's some truth in that,

989
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,160
but it's not even, that's
not the whole story

990
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,710
because you find in
lots of small towns all

991
00:40:05,710 --> 00:40:07,300
around Europe you find

992
00:40:08,500 --> 00:40:11,290
elite suburbs developing
in the 19th century

993
00:40:11,290 --> 00:40:14,050
without any railways being involved.

994
00:40:14,050 --> 00:40:16,660
Like the west end wasn't
developed through railways.

995
00:40:16,660 --> 00:40:18,010
It developed long before railways.

996
00:40:18,010 --> 00:40:20,260
- Everyone used to commute
to work via walking. So

997
00:40:20,260 --> 00:40:22,300
- Yeah,
- Everyone walked an hour from,

998
00:40:22,300 --> 00:40:24,340
from their west end house
into their city job.

999
00:40:24,340 --> 00:40:27,130
- Yeah, Europeans in the
19th century walked a lot,

1000
00:40:27,130 --> 00:40:29,920
even rich ones every
morning from Belgravia,

1001
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:31,990
like a huge flock of top hatted,

1002
00:40:31,990 --> 00:40:33,670
frock coated men would set out

1003
00:40:33,670 --> 00:40:35,890
and pour through Covent Garden and Soho

1004
00:40:35,890 --> 00:40:38,320
and like going to their jobs in the city

1005
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,450
and then every evening
they'd all pour back

1006
00:40:40,450 --> 00:40:42,220
through the streets and that was,

1007
00:40:43,330 --> 00:40:46,780
and you would see like even
little towns like Shrewsbury near

1008
00:40:46,780 --> 00:40:48,460
where my parents live like

1009
00:40:48,460 --> 00:40:49,293
that has its own little
villa district.

1010
00:40:49,293 --> 00:40:50,376
In Shrewsbury there's certainly no
commuter rail around Shrewsbury but,

1011
00:40:53,890 --> 00:40:55,360
and so that the development of that kind

1012
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,190
of suburbia I think has more to do

1013
00:40:57,190 --> 00:41:00,700
with basically availability of capital

1014
00:41:00,700 --> 00:41:03,850
and like the swiftly growing middle class

1015
00:41:03,850 --> 00:41:06,700
and it makes it financially
possible for a developer to,

1016
00:41:06,700 --> 00:41:10,600
to a landowner to take a big,
a big bunch of land, big plot

1017
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:14,230
of area of land and say I'm
gonna develop this whole thing

1018
00:41:14,230 --> 00:41:16,030
as an exclusive residential area

1019
00:41:16,030 --> 00:41:17,710
and it's gonna be totally
different to the kind

1020
00:41:17,710 --> 00:41:20,350
of impoverished mixed use suburbia which

1021
00:41:20,350 --> 00:41:21,760
is existed historically.

1022
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,190
Instead this is gonna be
somebody's like it's big enough

1023
00:41:24,190 --> 00:41:27,460
and I can raise enough
money to design it in one go

1024
00:41:27,460 --> 00:41:28,540
and it's going to become a kind

1025
00:41:28,540 --> 00:41:30,880
of exclusive place
exclusive in terms of use,

1026
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,260
exclusive in terms of social

1027
00:41:33,260 --> 00:41:36,230
and all these kinds of ...

1028
00:41:36,230 --> 00:41:38,990
actually think the core
mechanism behind the development

1029
00:41:38,990 --> 00:41:41,870
of suburbia is probably
not transport types,

1030
00:41:41,870 --> 00:41:45,170
it's probably just growing
wealth, faster urban expansion

1031
00:41:45,170 --> 00:41:48,680
and the availability of like
easy capital for developers

1032
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,260
to do unified development
of suburban areas.

1033
00:41:51,260 --> 00:41:54,920
Once those exist, people
try to protect them.

1034
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:56,750
- So I have a question for you.

1035
00:41:56,750 --> 00:41:58,790
What about the places that don't

1036
00:41:58,790 --> 00:42:00,020
seem to have a great downzoning?

1037
00:42:00,020 --> 00:42:03,230
So I've looked, I spend a
lot of time, I, I spend a lot

1038
00:42:03,230 --> 00:42:06,200
of time on Google Maps satellite view

1039
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:07,700
and I spend a good fraction of

1040
00:42:07,700 --> 00:42:09,410
that time on Google Maps satellite view

1041
00:42:09,410 --> 00:42:11,030
looking at Spanish cities.

1042
00:42:11,030 --> 00:42:14,660
And my weird impression
is that they tend to,

1043
00:42:14,660 --> 00:42:17,270
the city like Valencia
just ends with six story,

1044
00:42:17,270 --> 00:42:20,570
maybe even eight story apartment
blocks and then open field

1045
00:42:20,570 --> 00:42:22,730
and then like maybe an
eight story satellite town.

1046
00:42:22,730 --> 00:42:25,280
And then open field doesn't
seem like there's any

1047
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:26,360
great downzoning there.

1048
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,040
So what's going on there? So

1049
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:29,300
- That's definitely true.

1050
00:42:29,300 --> 00:42:31,430
I don't, I don't have a
complete explanation of this.

1051
00:42:31,430 --> 00:42:34,910
It's definitely true that the
cities of Mediterranean Europe

1052
00:42:34,910 --> 00:42:38,480
are still structured more
like cities in the middle ages

1053
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:42,890
were so they have a, the
whole city is pretty dense,

1054
00:42:42,890 --> 00:42:45,140
rich people live either
right in the middle

1055
00:42:45,140 --> 00:42:47,690
or in kind of inner suburbs

1056
00:42:47,690 --> 00:42:52,190
and then suburban areas are poor mixed use

1057
00:42:52,190 --> 00:42:53,330
and unplanned.

1058
00:42:53,330 --> 00:42:55,400
They're like ragged haphazard development

1059
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,310
of stuff which has been like
spat out from the city that

1060
00:42:59,870 --> 00:43:01,610
there are some exceptions to that

1061
00:43:01,610 --> 00:43:02,840
and there's exceptions of gradually

1062
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:04,010
growing more common over time.

1063
00:43:04,010 --> 00:43:07,520
But that's still the basic
profile of a Mediterranean city

1064
00:43:08,510 --> 00:43:10,970
and they don't have, and

1065
00:43:10,970 --> 00:43:12,350
and in many cases you still find

1066
00:43:12,350 --> 00:43:14,720
as you say this phenomenon
like you get to the city limits

1067
00:43:14,720 --> 00:43:16,370
and it's six story apartment,
six story apartment,

1068
00:43:16,370 --> 00:43:17,780
six story apartment and it just stops

1069
00:43:17,780 --> 00:43:19,790
and you have open countryside afterwards,

1070
00:43:19,790 --> 00:43:22,490
which is the thing which is
like almost never happened in

1071
00:43:22,490 --> 00:43:24,110
the whole history of the
English speaking world

1072
00:43:24,110 --> 00:43:27,230
where no English country has
ever had six story flats built

1073
00:43:27,230 --> 00:43:29,300
in large quantities on the
edge of the countryside.

1074
00:43:31,310 --> 00:43:34,250
The short, I can give short explanation

1075
00:43:34,250 --> 00:43:36,350
for why the great downzoning
hasn't happened in those

1076
00:43:36,350 --> 00:43:38,270
places and that's just,

1077
00:43:38,270 --> 00:43:41,060
they didn't have elite
suburbs in the first place.

1078
00:43:41,060 --> 00:43:44,720
If you don't have elite suburbs
then there's nothing to ...

1079
00:43:44,720 --> 00:43:46,640
the basic mechanism for
the great downzoning,

1080
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:49,760
which is suburban people
demanding it doesn't happen.

1081
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:53,660
Why did they not develop elite suburbs

1082
00:43:53,660 --> 00:43:54,740
That's much more puzzling.

1083
00:43:55,700 --> 00:43:59,330
The reason why they didn't in
the 19th century is maybe just

1084
00:43:59,330 --> 00:44:00,950
these countries were still too poor

1085
00:44:00,950 --> 00:44:03,200
and the capital accumulation
hadn't happened.

1086
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:04,520
But why haven't they done so since then?

1087
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:06,440
I think, you know, we might want

1088
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,360
to do a Works in Progress
article about this.

1089
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,700
I have
a papier mache theory,

1090
00:44:10,700 --> 00:44:13,700
but like this is
completely conjectural,

1091
00:44:13,700 --> 00:44:18,350
but my wild theory is maybe
if you don't develop suburbia

1092
00:44:18,350 --> 00:44:20,930
during the railway age, cars arrive

1093
00:44:20,930 --> 00:44:22,310
and then like these areas

1094
00:44:22,310 --> 00:44:25,550
around the city are completely
democratised and opened up

1095
00:44:25,550 --> 00:44:27,110
and anyone can build a house there.

1096
00:44:27,110 --> 00:44:29,270
And at that point the appeal of suburbia

1097
00:44:29,270 --> 00:44:31,530
as like an elite zone is lost,

1098
00:44:31,530 --> 00:44:33,960
and if you haven't established
elite suburbs already at

1099
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,540
that point then you are like
path dependently stuck on

1100
00:44:36,540 --> 00:44:39,420
suburbia being ironically

1101
00:44:39,420 --> 00:44:41,130
stuck on it being like it
was in the middle ages.

1102
00:44:41,130 --> 00:44:42,630
Like a poor area

1103
00:44:42,630 --> 00:44:45,630
where like people don't want
to live unless they have to.

1104
00:44:45,630 --> 00:44:48,270
Whereas if you had the railway age,

1105
00:44:48,270 --> 00:44:51,000
you had the railway
towns then those places

1106
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:52,680
and you've created, you
get this window

1107
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,780
where technology created the possibility

1108
00:44:54,780 --> 00:44:57,990
of having these this
socially exclusive suburbia,

1109
00:44:57,990 --> 00:45:00,420
then the people in that socially
exclusive suburbia strive

1110
00:45:00,420 --> 00:45:01,500
to keep it in being forever.

1111
00:45:02,490 --> 00:45:04,320
And they're generally pretty
successful in doing so

1112
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,510
because they enlist
the state to help them.

1113
00:45:06,510 --> 00:45:09,540
That's, that's a wild theory
but I'm not sure it works

1114
00:45:09,540 --> 00:45:11,280
and I can see some reasons
why it might be wrong.

1115
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,920
So I'd quite like us to, to get
someone to write about that.

1116
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:17,220
- I have another question
because, so we had,

1117
00:45:17,220 --> 00:45:20,730
we are talking here about
why everyone inevitably wants

1118
00:45:20,730 --> 00:45:22,170
to downzone their area if possible

1119
00:45:22,170 --> 00:45:24,810
and it was imposed everywhere
is extremely universal

1120
00:45:24,810 --> 00:45:26,730
and people try and do it through
like almost any mechanism

1121
00:45:26,730 --> 00:45:28,440
or bear gigantic costs for doing it.

1122
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,590
Which, and so does this mean
that our project that you

1123
00:45:31,590 --> 00:45:33,480
and I have been working on for
the last five years of trying

1124
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,420
to upzone various parts
of suburbia is now over

1125
00:45:36,420 --> 00:45:38,550
because we've proven it's impossible.

1126
00:45:38,550 --> 00:45:39,960
- Yeah,
- Historical dozoning is just a

1127
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:41,490
historical inevitability.

1128
00:45:41,490 --> 00:45:42,570
- Like or or undesirable.

1129
00:45:42,570 --> 00:45:45,150
I mean the like it kind
of sounds like maybe,

1130
00:45:45,150 --> 00:45:49,590
maybe we should just take it on
the chin maybe maybe downzoning
is just a price we have to pay

1131
00:45:49,590 --> 00:45:51,420
for people getting what they want.

1132
00:45:51,420 --> 00:45:54,270
- Yes. It's, so

1133
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,820
one key thing has changed
since the downzoning happened,

1134
00:45:59,820 --> 00:46:02,460
which is that the down
zoning itself

1135
00:46:02,460 --> 00:46:04,590
has generated massive housing shortages.

1136
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:06,570
In Britain it's a bit more

1137
00:46:06,570 --> 00:46:08,070
complicated because we have green belts.

1138
00:46:08,070 --> 00:46:09,810
So the downzoning isn't
the whole explanation,

1139
00:46:09,810 --> 00:46:12,810
but in most countries the
downzoning is basically,

1140
00:46:12,810 --> 00:46:14,370
I mean pretty much the whole explanation

1141
00:46:14,370 --> 00:46:15,780
for why they have housing shortages.

1142
00:46:15,780 --> 00:46:18,690
And this is why you can see
in the United States

1143
00:46:18,690 --> 00:46:21,210
housing shortages are very
concentrated in big cities.

1144
00:46:21,210 --> 00:46:24,660
The places where their
already vast urban expansion

1145
00:46:24,660 --> 00:46:26,160
can't really meet further housing need.

1146
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:27,510
What they really need is to densify some

1147
00:46:27,510 --> 00:46:28,650
of their existing areas

1148
00:46:28,650 --> 00:46:31,260
- Also they're often
geographically ringed in, like San

1149
00:46:31,260 --> 00:46:33,000
Francisco's on a peninsula.

1150
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,130
A lot of New York is on islands.

1151
00:46:35,130 --> 00:46:36,325
- Yeah, yeah, yeah that's,

1152
00:46:36,325 --> 00:46:38,730
and New York's got national
parks around some areas

1153
00:46:38,730 --> 00:46:40,410
so like in some cases they've got

1154
00:46:41,250 --> 00:46:43,020
physical constraints on further expansion.

1155
00:46:43,020 --> 00:46:44,250
But I think there's, I think,

1156
00:46:44,250 --> 00:46:45,570
I mean I haven't looked
into this properly,

1157
00:46:45,570 --> 00:46:48,060
but I think there's
also an effect that like

1158
00:46:48,060 --> 00:46:51,065
when a city reaches a certain size,

1159
00:46:51,065 --> 00:46:54,450
where a further physical expansion becomes

1160
00:46:54,450 --> 00:46:55,830
like quite an unsatisfactory way

1161
00:46:55,830 --> 00:46:56,940
of meeting its housing need.

1162
00:46:56,940 --> 00:47:00,060
Like if you're out deep in
new New Jersey on the actual

1163
00:47:00,060 --> 00:47:02,250
periphery of the New
York metropolitan area

1164
00:47:02,250 --> 00:47:04,080
and you build a new
subdivision, someone in

1165
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,390
that subdivision, even if they
get into their car at 5:00 AM

1166
00:47:06,390 --> 00:47:08,820
in the morning and drive like
crazy may not be able to get

1167
00:47:08,820 --> 00:47:11,010
to Manhattan in time for the
start of the working day.

1168
00:47:11,010 --> 00:47:14,040
So they actually can't
meet the housing needs

1169
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:15,720
of the Manhattan Employment Centre

1170
00:47:15,720 --> 00:47:17,460
by further expansion in Long Island

1171
00:47:17,460 --> 00:47:19,530
or further expansion on the mainland.

1172
00:47:19,530 --> 00:47:20,820
- I mean give an example of that.

1173
00:47:20,820 --> 00:47:22,020
So you have Houston,

1174
00:47:22,020 --> 00:47:24,540
which obviously has a famous sprawl city

1175
00:47:24,540 --> 00:47:26,820
where it's relatively low density in Texas

1176
00:47:26,820 --> 00:47:28,860
and they have an enormous amount of roads.

1177
00:47:28,860 --> 00:47:32,470
The going out west of the city
is like 16 lanes at one point

1178
00:47:33,310 --> 00:47:35,290
and generally they flow

1179
00:47:35,290 --> 00:47:36,490
quite well 'cause they're toll roads.

1180
00:47:36,490 --> 00:47:40,240
But even in Houston where
they basically allow unlimited

1181
00:47:40,240 --> 00:47:41,710
outward expansion, right?

1182
00:47:41,710 --> 00:47:43,870
So there's no overall gap between

1183
00:47:43,870 --> 00:47:45,730
how we're talking about
this before house prices

1184
00:47:45,730 --> 00:47:47,980
and housing sale costs
on the edge of town.

1185
00:47:47,980 --> 00:47:49,750
There's still a strong push

1186
00:47:49,750 --> 00:47:52,240
to densify the inner
suburban neighbourhoods

1187
00:47:52,240 --> 00:47:54,130
because they're just such,
so much more convenient.

1188
00:47:54,130 --> 00:47:56,620
And when you get to the point
where like Houston is probably

1189
00:47:56,620 --> 00:47:58,060
bigger than the urban area of London,

1190
00:47:58,060 --> 00:48:00,160
if you put them together on a map

1191
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,290
and it has less than half
the population of

1192
00:48:02,290 --> 00:48:04,270
that overall urban area,
when you get to that level

1193
00:48:04,270 --> 00:48:06,970
of spread, it's just
worth adding some more

1194
00:48:06,970 --> 00:48:08,350
housing in the middle if you can.

1195
00:48:08,350 --> 00:48:09,700
But sorry Samuel, carry on.

1196
00:48:09,700 --> 00:48:13,150
- Yeah, so if you remember
when the downzoning was

1197
00:48:13,150 --> 00:48:15,580
introduced, when it was introduced
about the private sector,

1198
00:48:15,580 --> 00:48:16,780
we are pretty certain

1199
00:48:16,780 --> 00:48:19,060
that it was increasing the
value of these neighbourhoods.

1200
00:48:19,060 --> 00:48:20,470
The reason why
we're certain of this is

1201
00:48:20,470 --> 00:48:21,820
that it was done again and again and again

1202
00:48:21,820 --> 00:48:24,130
by profit seeking developers
all around the world.

1203
00:48:24,130 --> 00:48:26,410
It was extremely unlikely they
were all wrong about this.

1204
00:48:26,410 --> 00:48:29,530
So at that point when you
didn't have a housing shortage,

1205
00:48:29,530 --> 00:48:33,580
the immediate value that you
preserved through covenanting

1206
00:48:33,580 --> 00:48:36,550
or like, you know, the racist
preferences that you satisfied

1207
00:48:36,550 --> 00:48:39,370
through covenanting or
whatever it may be, was

1208
00:48:39,370 --> 00:48:41,950
sufficiently great that covenanting

1209
00:48:41,950 --> 00:48:43,810
maximised the value of the neighbourhood.

1210
00:48:43,810 --> 00:48:47,530
It's pretty clear that's
no longer true in areas

1211
00:48:47,530 --> 00:48:49,060
with acute housing shortages.

1212
00:48:49,060 --> 00:48:50,620
So in these areas with
acute housing shortage,

1213
00:48:50,620 --> 00:48:54,040
like the great downzoning
itself has forced up floor space

1214
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:58,780
values so that they're now like
it's floor space sells

1215
00:48:58,780 --> 00:49:02,080
for four times more than it
costs to build in these places.

1216
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:03,640
And when you see, so

1217
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:08,170
that's like one reason why we
might think why we might not

1218
00:49:08,170 --> 00:49:11,680
be so pessimistic about the situation.

1219
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,440
It's true that in all countries

1220
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:17,350
that don't have tight
regulatory constraints on house

1221
00:49:17,350 --> 00:49:20,620
building, when you start
introducing zoning restraints,

1222
00:49:20,620 --> 00:49:25,620
zoning controls, they probably
do increase property prices.

1223
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:29,470
But because those zoning envelopes
don't increase over time,

1224
00:49:29,470 --> 00:49:30,670
you get a housing shortage

1225
00:49:30,670 --> 00:49:33,520
because you've got a housing
shortage, you get high

1226
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:36,280
floor space values and you reach a point

1227
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,410
where the value maximising
thing would actually be

1228
00:49:38,410 --> 00:49:39,460
to upzone the neighbourhood

1229
00:49:39,460 --> 00:49:42,130
and allow more density
which is quite unlike the

1230
00:49:42,130 --> 00:49:44,175
situation when it was first developed.

1231
00:49:44,175 --> 00:49:47,590
- And, and you're using total
value as a sort of proxy

1232
00:49:47,590 --> 00:49:49,510
for human welfare or human wellbeing.

1233
00:49:49,510 --> 00:49:50,920
- Yeah, it's an imperfect proxy

1234
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:51,753
obviously.

1235
00:49:51,753 --> 00:49:52,586
I like it.

1236
00:49:52,586 --> 00:49:53,590
- I think it's a good
- One.

1237
00:49:53,590 --> 00:49:55,630
Yeah, I don't like, I
mean there are problems

1238
00:49:55,630 --> 00:50:00,220
so clearly like the financial

1239
00:50:00,220 --> 00:50:04,870
value ... economic
value will weight the

1240
00:50:04,870 --> 00:50:06,550
preferences of rich people
more than it would weight

1241
00:50:06,550 --> 00:50:07,570
the preferences of poor people.

1242
00:50:07,570 --> 00:50:10,120
Like a rich, a billionaire's
view might count

1243
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,100
for more than the homes
of a hundred people

1244
00:50:12,100 --> 00:50:14,470
because of billionaire's
preferences are like

1245
00:50:14,470 --> 00:50:17,740
have so
much more pricing power than,

1246
00:50:17,740 --> 00:50:20,050
than people who have no money
to, to give effect there.

1247
00:50:20,050 --> 00:50:23,620
So like economic value is a very imperfect

1248
00:50:25,270 --> 00:50:28,760
corollary for, for like
social bad social welfare,

1249
00:50:29,900 --> 00:50:31,700
but like it is at least it's the best,

1250
00:50:31,700 --> 00:50:34,340
probably the best we've got
for aggregating vast numbers

1251
00:50:34,340 --> 00:50:35,930
of preferences, of vast numbers of people.

1252
00:50:35,930 --> 00:50:37,490
- Yeah. It's a way of, it's a, it's a way

1253
00:50:37,490 --> 00:50:40,490
of people demonstrating what
they actually want to happen

1254
00:50:40,490 --> 00:50:41,600
and how much are you willing

1255
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:43,183
to give up for this

1256
00:50:44,526 --> 00:50:45,740
- The other thing is that
if there are distortions

1257
00:50:45,740 --> 00:50:48,860
that result from any inequalities
of income, like those,

1258
00:50:48,860 --> 00:50:50,120
the distortions will tend

1259
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,660
to be in fa like will bias us in favour

1260
00:50:53,660 --> 00:50:55,160
of more downzoning.

1261
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:58,490
If it's the case
that building all the flats

1262
00:50:58,490 --> 00:51:00,800
for poor people maximises economic value,

1263
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:04,790
even though it disrupts the
billionaires view, then like

1264
00:51:04,790 --> 00:51:06,590
the poor people must really wanted a lot.

1265
00:51:06,590 --> 00:51:08,450
- Yeah.
- Because they can beat the billionaire

1266
00:51:08,450 --> 00:51:11,150
with his
enormous buying power.

1267
00:51:11,150 --> 00:51:15,260
- And the the other, the other
standard flaw in just taking

1268
00:51:15,260 --> 00:51:16,430
kind of overall output

1269
00:51:16,430 --> 00:51:18,470
or overall value as the proxy

1270
00:51:18,470 --> 00:51:20,090
for welfare is externalities, right?

1271
00:51:20,090 --> 00:51:23,930
Like we don't just think that,
I don't know, you know, a,

1272
00:51:23,930 --> 00:51:26,480
a country that mines a lot
of coal and then burns it all

1273
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,460
and makes a lot of stuff, we know

1274
00:51:28,460 --> 00:51:29,780
there is something missing there, right?

1275
00:51:29,780 --> 00:51:31,190
There's the pollution and the CO2

1276
00:51:32,540 --> 00:51:34,070
and that is part of the story

1277
00:51:34,070 --> 00:51:35,750
because obviously the story

1278
00:51:35,750 --> 00:51:37,940
of the great downzoning
is one of externalities.

1279
00:51:37,940 --> 00:51:40,340
You know, you're talking
about basically people trying

1280
00:51:40,340 --> 00:51:42,500
to control negative externalities.

1281
00:51:42,500 --> 00:51:44,690
But when you talk about a single area

1282
00:51:44,690 --> 00:51:47,420
or talk about maximising
the value of a single area,

1283
00:51:47,420 --> 00:51:50,600
this is why the Great
Estates worked so well.

1284
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:52,790
'cause they internalised all
of those externalities much.

1285
00:51:52,790 --> 00:51:54,260
They had this, they have been,

1286
00:51:54,260 --> 00:51:55,850
you've written about this a lot, but you,

1287
00:51:55,850 --> 00:51:59,210
when you have a kind of
single owner, the single owner

1288
00:51:59,210 --> 00:52:01,370
has a really strong
incentive to weigh up all

1289
00:52:01,370 --> 00:52:04,070
of the externalities
kind of within that area.

1290
00:52:04,070 --> 00:52:06,350
And this is obviously
one of the reasons that

1291
00:52:06,350 --> 00:52:08,645
streets differ in quality and so on.

1292
00:52:08,645 --> 00:52:10,795
- And also if we go back to the,

1293
00:52:10,795 --> 00:52:12,500
the Great Estates in
their private zoning,

1294
00:52:12,500 --> 00:52:14,240
the Great Estates in
their private zoning do

1295
00:52:14,240 --> 00:52:15,665
occasionally upzone themselves, right?

1296
00:52:15,665 --> 00:52:17,600
So the, the Great Estates
are a perfect example of

1297
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:19,820
what Samuel's saying, because
most of the time they're like,

1298
00:52:19,820 --> 00:52:20,960
keep it low, keep it low.

1299
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:23,330
And then occasionally floor
space values rise so high

1300
00:52:23,330 --> 00:52:25,220
that they think, well,
this will be busier,

1301
00:52:25,220 --> 00:52:27,440
this will be slightly less exclusive.

1302
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:29,090
- Mm. - But we can fit
double as many people in here

1303
00:52:29,090 --> 00:52:30,680
and they really want to
live here in the centre

1304
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:33,080
of this city, which is a really
economically valuable city.

1305
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:35,270
And so you can go, you could go right now,

1306
00:52:35,270 --> 00:52:37,430
you could be like me and go
and Google's satellite view of

1307
00:52:37,430 --> 00:52:39,620
around Chelsea or Marburn

1308
00:52:39,620 --> 00:52:40,880
and look at the edges of places

1309
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:44,150
where there are Edwardian
blocks of flats next to Georgian

1310
00:52:44,150 --> 00:52:45,560
or Victorian houses.

1311
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:47,240
And they have, they'll
be in greater state land

1312
00:52:47,240 --> 00:52:49,580
and they literally have upzoned
their own Great Estate land.

1313
00:52:49,580 --> 00:52:54,080
So that private version of
zoning is able to balance it

1314
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:56,120
when it actually is necessary.

1315
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:57,770
- Yeah. Han's place, probably one

1316
00:52:57,770 --> 00:53:00,140
of the most expensive
streets in the world that was

1317
00:53:00,140 --> 00:53:02,300
that owned by the Cadogan estate I think.

1318
00:53:02,300 --> 00:53:03,950
So they, in the 1880s,

1319
00:53:03,950 --> 00:53:06,620
it was all developed originally
in the late 18th century

1320
00:53:06,620 --> 00:53:08,720
as terraced houses, four stories

1321
00:53:08,720 --> 00:53:11,210
or something reached at the
end of the 19th century.

1322
00:53:11,210 --> 00:53:13,970
And the estate owners,
when the leases were all coming

1323
00:53:13,970 --> 00:53:15,590
to their end.

1324
00:53:15,590 --> 00:53:17,870
They say to us, think actually
there's loads of demand

1325
00:53:17,870 --> 00:53:20,390
to live in Knightsbridge

1326
00:53:20,390 --> 00:53:21,920
Why don't we just demolish the whole thing

1327
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:24,140
and rebuild it at like twice or two

1328
00:53:24,140 --> 00:53:25,160
and a half times the density.

1329
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:27,630
Sure we'll lose a bit of ammenity value

1330
00:53:27,630 --> 00:53:30,900
because the density will be
higher, but we've got two

1331
00:53:30,900 --> 00:53:32,400
and a half times as much floor space

1332
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,935
and like people really,
really want to live here.

1333
00:53:34,935 --> 00:53:37,590
And they did it and it worked.
They made it/

1334
00:53:37,590 --> 00:53:40,140
They can't do that anymore

1335
00:53:40,140 --> 00:53:43,080
because the planning system
now overlays the private zoning

1336
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,060
controls by the greater states.

1337
00:53:45,060 --> 00:53:46,860
But if you remove the planning system,

1338
00:53:46,860 --> 00:53:49,620
I'm sure the greater states
would start demolishing bits

1339
00:53:49,620 --> 00:53:50,850
of their 19th century stock

1340
00:53:50,850 --> 00:53:52,350
and replacing it with denser development.

1341
00:53:53,700 --> 00:53:58,110
And we knew like, this isn't
just like us speculating.

1342
00:53:58,110 --> 00:54:00,300
We've, there are plenty
of international examples

1343
00:54:00,300 --> 00:54:04,980
where if you give blocks or neighbourhoods

1344
00:54:04,980 --> 00:54:09,150
the right
to upzone, they do it

1345
00:54:09,150 --> 00:54:13,290
because it like increases
the total value of the

1346
00:54:13,290 --> 00:54:14,340
of the block when they do.

1347
00:54:14,340 --> 00:54:17,850
So Ben's done some work on
the case of Houston here?

1348
00:54:18,690 --> 00:54:19,770
- Yeah, well yeah. We didn't, we

1349
00:54:19,770 --> 00:54:20,820
did an article on Works in Progress

1350
00:54:20,820 --> 00:54:22,620
That was very good.
I'll credit Anya Martin

1351
00:54:22,620 --> 00:54:23,880
for doing most of the work on that.

1352
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:26,580
But, but yes, there are many examples.

1353
00:54:26,580 --> 00:54:27,720
I've seen lots of examples.

1354
00:54:27,720 --> 00:54:29,220
My favourite example at the moment who,

1355
00:54:29,220 --> 00:54:30,300
we've got an article coming in.

1356
00:54:30,300 --> 00:54:32,310
So I've been reading all these
drafts of all these details

1357
00:54:32,310 --> 00:54:33,960
and I'm one of the few
people who knows about all

1358
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:35,850
of this stuff because no one seems

1359
00:54:35,850 --> 00:54:37,800
to go into Korean archives in Korean

1360
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:39,630
and look through all the details.

1361
00:54:39,630 --> 00:54:41,580
There was this policy called
the Korean Dream in the

1362
00:54:41,580 --> 00:54:44,940
eighties where you could
take your neighbourhood

1363
00:54:44,940 --> 00:54:48,570
that was potentially like a,
a shanty town slum on the edge

1364
00:54:48,570 --> 00:54:51,420
of town because Korea had,

1365
00:54:51,420 --> 00:54:54,420
had a very high birth rate
at the time, funnily enough,

1366
00:54:54,420 --> 00:54:56,250
and also a very high urbanisation rate.

1367
00:54:56,250 --> 00:54:59,430
So their cities were
growing at like 15% per year

1368
00:54:59,430 --> 00:55:00,720
or something off or faster than that.

1369
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:06,000
And they allowed whole
neighbourhoods to opt into up zoning

1370
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,580
to be allowed to build whatever
they wanted, if they wanted.

1371
00:55:08,580 --> 00:55:12,570
And at that time, the value
for them was no, okay,

1372
00:55:12,570 --> 00:55:15,690
we is actually better despite
the there being more people

1373
00:55:15,690 --> 00:55:17,820
around, it's still gonna
be net more valuable

1374
00:55:17,820 --> 00:55:20,520
because there's the demand
for floor space is so high.

1375
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,440
And so they all opted in to upzoning.

1376
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:25,170
So we clearly
can see examples of it,

1377
00:55:25,170 --> 00:55:28,410
- The question, so like how
optimistic should we be?

1378
00:55:28,410 --> 00:55:32,070
So the case of pessimism as you lay out is

1379
00:55:32,940 --> 00:55:34,770
everywhere which has elite suburbia

1380
00:55:34,770 --> 00:55:37,620
or even like middle class
suburbia has downzoning,

1381
00:55:37,620 --> 00:55:40,230
Like it's pretty much without exception

1382
00:55:41,490 --> 00:55:46,200
and there aren't many
cases of that changing yet.

1383
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:49,140
So that looks like quite a
powerful argument of pessimism.

1384
00:55:49,140 --> 00:55:50,400
But the case for optimism to summarise

1385
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:53,790
what we've been saying is all that's true,

1386
00:55:53,790 --> 00:55:54,810
but the very success

1387
00:55:54,810 --> 00:55:57,300
of the downzoning maybe
has created the conditions

1388
00:55:57,300 --> 00:55:59,100
for the ends of the
downzoning in some places

1389
00:55:59,100 --> 00:56:01,650
by removing this totally key feature

1390
00:56:01,650 --> 00:56:03,120
that was there was in
the beginning, which is

1391
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,670
that originally downzoning
was value maximising.

1392
00:56:05,670 --> 00:56:09,360
And now downzoning is massively
value destroying in in the

1393
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,160
places with the bad housing
shortage, of course there's still lots

1394
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:13,260
of places woithout bad housing shortages.

1395
00:56:13,260 --> 00:56:16,950
So I, I'd say like I will
be very pessimistic about

1396
00:56:18,180 --> 00:56:21,420
upzoning parts of, well parts

1397
00:56:21,420 --> 00:56:22,860
of the United States in the United States

1398
00:56:22,860 --> 00:56:25,210
or in in Europe, which don't
have housing shortages.

1399
00:56:25,210 --> 00:56:28,000
I think there zoning is probably good,

1400
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:29,410
it's certainly economically good

1401
00:56:29,410 --> 00:56:30,970
for people in suburban areas who,

1402
00:56:30,970 --> 00:56:32,260
and they, they almost certainly

1403
00:56:32,260 --> 00:56:33,340
improves their property value.

1404
00:56:35,170 --> 00:56:36,400
But in the places

1405
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:39,340
where we've got terrible
housing shortages,

1406
00:56:39,340 --> 00:56:42,160
which includes nearly all the
great capitals of the world,

1407
00:56:43,390 --> 00:56:45,190
there we are in uncharted territory

1408
00:56:45,190 --> 00:56:47,260
and the whole thing, the whole reason

1409
00:56:47,260 --> 00:56:50,170
that brought the downzoning into being

1410
00:56:50,170 --> 00:56:51,610
is no longer in place.

1411
00:56:51,610 --> 00:56:53,590
So maybe we can be more optimistic about

1412
00:56:53,590 --> 00:56:54,880
what might happen in those places.

1413
00:56:56,290 --> 00:56:57,970
- What's the relationship

1414
00:56:57,970 --> 00:57:02,890
or what's the connection between
what you often write about

1415
00:57:02,890 --> 00:57:06,820
and think about, which is beauty
and design and architecture

1416
00:57:06,820 --> 00:57:09,070
and this, other than the fact

1417
00:57:09,070 --> 00:57:10,510
that they're, they're all about housing.

1418
00:57:10,510 --> 00:57:14,830
Like does the, does your
interest in the built environment

1419
00:57:14,830 --> 00:57:16,030
Yeah, I hate that expression,

1420
00:57:16,030 --> 00:57:19,630
but does your interest in
beautiful buildings relate

1421
00:57:19,630 --> 00:57:21,730
to this at all or are

1422
00:57:21,730 --> 00:57:23,320
You just interested in cities generally?

1423
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:26,230
- They're definitely related,

1424
00:57:26,230 --> 00:57:28,030
but they're, sometimes they have a,

1425
00:57:28,030 --> 00:57:30,280
I mean it's a complicated,
intense relationship.

1426
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:32,860
So like some, when I first
started working on this,

1427
00:57:32,860 --> 00:57:37,210
I thought great, improving the
density of suburbia will tend

1428
00:57:37,210 --> 00:57:40,030
to create more flourishing,
more beautiful places

1429
00:57:41,350 --> 00:57:44,020
because the classic examples that we have

1430
00:57:44,020 --> 00:57:48,460
of flourishing beautiful
places typically are at like medium

1431
00:57:48,460 --> 00:57:50,080
or high density or often.

1432
00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:54,220
So, you know, I've always
loved terraced streets

1433
00:57:54,220 --> 00:57:55,630
and the kind of old corridor streets

1434
00:57:55,630 --> 00:57:57,220
and the sense enclosure
that you get from that.

1435
00:57:57,220 --> 00:58:00,130
So I thought, well
densification is probably likely

1436
00:58:00,130 --> 00:58:02,890
to generally make urban
spaces more beautiful

1437
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:07,300
and that's another reason
to be in favour of it.

1438
00:58:07,300 --> 00:58:08,230
And maybe a reason that's

1439
00:58:08,230 --> 00:58:09,670
particularly close to my own heart.

1440
00:58:09,670 --> 00:58:12,910
Like we've all got this right
when we, when we work on policy

1441
00:58:12,910 --> 00:58:16,150
and we've got our own like
publicly our own assessment

1442
00:58:16,150 --> 00:58:18,400
of the, the stuff that's
actually important.

1443
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:19,960
And then we have the thing that like kind

1444
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:21,040
of really motivates us

1445
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:25,420
and that we clearly, if
you look at the history

1446
00:58:25,420 --> 00:58:30,040
of zoning, it's more
complicated than that.

1447
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:33,310
And part of the reason why down
zoning was introduced in the

1448
00:58:33,310 --> 00:58:36,460
first place was to
protect aesthetic values

1449
00:58:36,460 --> 00:58:38,290
of neighbourhoods, at least perceived

1450
00:58:38,290 --> 00:58:39,640
aesthetic values of neighbourhoods.

1451
00:58:39,640 --> 00:58:43,690
So like people in these 19th
century villa districts,

1452
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:48,040
one of the classic problem
with beauty right, is

1453
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:49,810
that you bear all the costs

1454
00:58:49,810 --> 00:58:51,880
of making your property beautiful,

1455
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,130
but the beauty of your
property is a benefit

1456
00:58:54,130 --> 00:58:55,990
to all the other plots nearby.

1457
00:58:55,990 --> 00:58:59,260
And to everyone who goes past
it's classic, like totally

1458
00:58:59,260 --> 00:59:01,195
like pure, like one of
the best examples of a,

1459
00:59:01,195 --> 00:59:02,680
of a positive externality.

1460
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:04,660
So the free market with
fragmented ownership will

1461
00:59:04,660 --> 00:59:06,670
normally under-deliver beauty.

1462
00:59:06,670 --> 00:59:08,620
And there are, there are fun
classic studies about this

1463
00:59:08,620 --> 00:59:10,240
looking at front gardens, like

1464
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:12,280
to take out a driveway
and put in a front garden.

1465
00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:14,980
Your, your net property value
goes up a little bit under

1466
00:59:14,980 --> 00:59:17,890
certain circumstances,
but, but not very much.

1467
00:59:17,890 --> 00:59:20,530
But your neighbor's property
also takes a big jump,

1468
00:59:20,530 --> 00:59:22,010
like maybe larger than your jump

1469
00:59:22,010 --> 00:59:23,270
because they didn't lose their driveway,

1470
00:59:23,270 --> 00:59:24,740
they just get some nice
flowers to look at.

1471
00:59:25,610 --> 00:59:26,990
So you've got, you know, classic,

1472
00:59:26,990 --> 00:59:31,100
classic collective action
problem and private zoning.

1473
00:59:31,100 --> 00:59:33,110
One of its like totally clear, one

1474
00:59:33,110 --> 00:59:35,180
of its purposes at the
start was to overcome

1475
00:59:35,180 --> 00:59:36,890
that collective action problem.

1476
00:59:36,890 --> 00:59:40,490
And public zoning has tended

1477
00:59:40,490 --> 00:59:43,010
to be less like fine grained
on aesthetic questions.

1478
00:59:43,010 --> 00:59:45,530
Like the private zoners would
really fuss over what kind

1479
00:59:45,530 --> 00:59:46,880
of fence you can have and what colour you

1480
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:47,930
can paint your house and so forth.

1481
00:59:47,930 --> 00:59:51,620
But like public zoning in course
terms probably motivated by

1482
00:59:51,620 --> 00:59:53,930
these aesthetic
considerations to an extent.

1483
00:59:53,930 --> 00:59:56,480
So there I have like emotional dissonance

1484
00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:59,600
that urban density, which
is good for the economy

1485
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:04,100
and good for society as a
solution to housing shortages is

1486
01:00:05,870 --> 01:00:08,630
seemingly bad for aesthetic purposes.

1487
01:00:10,550 --> 01:00:14,360
The case that really interests
me here would be actually the

1488
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:17,060
one we've been discussing the
case with like greater states.

1489
01:00:17,060 --> 01:00:18,410
So what they did,

1490
01:00:18,410 --> 01:00:21,620
because there was still
this one unified owner

1491
01:00:21,620 --> 01:00:24,620
who was coordinating the
densification process,

1492
01:00:24,620 --> 01:00:27,260
they thought, okay, we're going

1493
01:00:27,260 --> 01:00:29,360
to redevelop this at higher densities,

1494
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:32,720
but we are still going to
think about aesthetic values.

1495
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:35,660
We don't want to densify one property

1496
01:00:35,660 --> 01:00:37,940
in our estate in a way which
is parasitical on the other

1497
01:00:37,940 --> 01:00:40,520
properties because we also
own all the other properties.

1498
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:41,990
So whenever we identify a property,

1499
01:00:41,990 --> 01:00:44,780
we'll think really carefully
about the fa the massing

1500
01:00:44,780 --> 01:00:46,610
and the facade and all
these kinds of features.

1501
01:00:46,610 --> 01:00:47,810
And it created these neighbourhoods.

1502
01:00:47,810 --> 01:00:50,420
Like Hanover Place is an
extremely beautiful street.

1503
01:00:50,420 --> 01:00:51,950
You can see why all these incredibly

1504
01:00:51,950 --> 01:00:53,030
rich people want to live there.

1505
01:00:54,770 --> 01:00:57,530
So I like what thinking about this

1506
01:00:57,530 --> 01:01:00,140
for several years has led me
to is the conclusion that

1507
01:01:01,010 --> 01:01:04,220
there are some prima facie tensions

1508
01:01:04,220 --> 01:01:07,910
between densification and urban beauty.

1509
01:01:09,050 --> 01:01:11,960
And those tensions are obvious

1510
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:13,610
and like clearly were one

1511
01:01:13,610 --> 01:01:15,020
of the things which drove the development

1512
01:01:15,020 --> 01:01:16,850
of zoning in the first place.

1513
01:01:16,850 --> 01:01:20,120
But there may be ways if we
can get the upzoning right

1514
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:23,360
and make it not just like an
uncoordinated free for all

1515
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:26,150
where parasitical building is allowed

1516
01:01:26,150 --> 01:01:28,850
and where you get like
the free rider problem,

1517
01:01:28,850 --> 01:01:31,250
aesthetic free rider problem
goes like totally rampant.

1518
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:34,160
If there are ways we can, we can counter

1519
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:36,350
that then we could get
much denser neighbourhoods

1520
01:01:36,350 --> 01:01:38,480
that were nonetheless beautiful.

1521
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:40,550
So what are those ways? Well,

1522
01:01:40,550 --> 01:01:43,130
where you've got a unified owner,

1523
01:01:43,130 --> 01:01:45,890
like in the greater states
in London it's much easier

1524
01:01:45,890 --> 01:01:49,040
because there you've got an
underlying economic agent

1525
01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:51,770
who can control what the
new development looks like

1526
01:01:51,770 --> 01:01:53,810
and who's also internalised externalities.

1527
01:01:53,810 --> 01:01:57,260
So they care about beauty.
The problem we have is like in

1528
01:01:57,260 --> 01:02:00,380
nearly all places you don't have that

1529
01:02:00,380 --> 01:02:03,710
because the original
landowners have sold the plots

1530
01:02:03,710 --> 01:02:05,090
into fragmented ownership.

1531
01:02:05,090 --> 01:02:07,250
And so the freeholder the
the free rider problem

1532
01:02:07,250 --> 01:02:08,600
becomes quite serious.

1533
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:14,120
Clearly like part of the solution.

1534
01:02:14,120 --> 01:02:16,010
Like sometimes you can
create the solution just

1535
01:02:16,010 --> 01:02:18,410
through having a good
planning system like that is

1536
01:02:18,410 --> 01:02:21,300
where you've got fragmented ownership.

1537
01:02:21,300 --> 01:02:24,480
The state will step in to
provide some of the services

1538
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:27,990
that a unified owner would've
provided if they existed.

1539
01:02:27,990 --> 01:02:31,200
- Like what,
- Like controlling the design

1540
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:35,370
of buildings controlling saying
that no, you can't build a

1541
01:02:35,370 --> 01:02:37,320
multi-story car park there out of concrete

1542
01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:39,360
or whatever, even if it's
the most valuable thing to do

1543
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:40,590
for your individual plot

1544
01:02:40,590 --> 01:02:43,350
because it will still
destroy the,

1545
01:02:43,350 --> 01:02:45,390
the ammenity of all the plots around it.

1546
01:02:45,390 --> 01:02:47,850
And the planning system does
do that to some extent in,

1547
01:02:47,850 --> 01:02:49,980
in this country as in all countries.

1548
01:02:49,980 --> 01:02:52,020
So that is definitely part of the answer.

1549
01:02:52,020 --> 01:02:53,160
We do have problems there.

1550
01:02:53,160 --> 01:02:55,920
So like famously planning
systems can end up suffering from

1551
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:58,200
design disconnect where the professionals

1552
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:00,570
who run the planning system
have like different aesthetic

1553
01:03:00,570 --> 01:03:02,220
preferences to the wider public.

1554
01:03:02,220 --> 01:03:04,650
So it's a standard like planners

1555
01:03:04,650 --> 01:03:06,570
and architects are much
more likely to be in favour

1556
01:03:06,570 --> 01:03:09,330
of radical modernist designs,

1557
01:03:09,330 --> 01:03:11,070
which are quite reparative
to normal people.

1558
01:03:11,070 --> 01:03:14,550
- One thing I often see
is buildings where they,

1559
01:03:14,550 --> 01:03:16,740
they have an old building,
there's an extension onto it

1560
01:03:16,740 --> 01:03:18,660
and the the extension seems to be designed

1561
01:03:18,660 --> 01:03:21,090
to be like maximally different
from the original building

1562
01:03:21,090 --> 01:03:23,280
as though it's like, I really
want to show you that this,

1563
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:25,410
this is an extension
rather than part of this.

1564
01:03:25,410 --> 01:03:26,610
- Yeah. Doctrine of legibility.

1565
01:03:26,610 --> 01:03:27,870
It's widely, so lots

1566
01:03:27,870 --> 01:03:29,280
of English planning authorities have this

1567
01:03:29,280 --> 01:03:30,660
as official or semi official

1568
01:03:30,660 --> 01:03:31,660
- Policy.

1569
01:03:31,660 --> 01:03:32,850
They, they require it to look different,

1570
01:03:32,850 --> 01:03:34,080
- They require it to look different.

1571
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:35,580
'cause they don't want the, if the,

1572
01:03:35,580 --> 01:03:37,410
if it blends into the original
building, it could be seen

1573
01:03:37,410 --> 01:03:39,870
as a fake extension that was
trying to pretend to be part

1574
01:03:39,870 --> 01:03:40,703
of the heritage

1575
01:03:40,703 --> 01:03:42,120
Jesus, that would be terrible.

1576
01:03:43,050 --> 01:03:47,580
- Yeah. So it's now probably
if you had a unified owner,

1577
01:03:47,580 --> 01:03:49,260
they would be, they
would have the discipline

1578
01:03:49,260 --> 01:03:51,510
of the basically the discipline
of the profit motive.

1579
01:03:51,510 --> 01:03:53,310
Yeah. They'd know this
doesn't maximise the value

1580
01:03:53,310 --> 01:03:54,180
of the neighbourhood and I care

1581
01:03:54,180 --> 01:03:55,230
about value of the neighbourhood.

1582
01:03:55,230 --> 01:03:56,280
So I care about the preferences

1583
01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:58,440
of ordinary people

1584
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:00,720
because those preferences
drive that value.

1585
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:04,020
Whereas if you are a public
authority to some extent you get

1586
01:04:04,020 --> 01:04:05,940
that through democratic
feedback mechanisms,

1587
01:04:05,940 --> 01:04:07,290
but those are often weaker

1588
01:04:07,290 --> 01:04:10,560
and like people don't really
vote on the basis of the,

1589
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:12,750
of the conservation area
policy of their neighbourhood.

1590
01:04:12,750 --> 01:04:14,070
Like they don't know the technical

1591
01:04:14,070 --> 01:04:16,140
detail, they don't follow that.

1592
01:04:16,140 --> 01:04:17,910
So the democratic feedback

1593
01:04:17,910 --> 01:04:19,320
mechanisms are probably quite weak.

1594
01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:22,470
And so you do get this drift,
the design disconnect effect.

1595
01:04:22,470 --> 01:04:24,990
And I think that I, that
doesn't mean I want to get rid

1596
01:04:24,990 --> 01:04:26,316
of planning controls and densification.

1597
01:04:26,316 --> 01:04:28,440
I think they're definitely
better than nothing.

1598
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:29,670
But that is a problem that you'd have.

1599
01:04:30,660 --> 01:04:32,825
Ben and I have worked a lot,
well you've worked a lot

1600
01:04:32,825 --> 01:04:35,520
as well on the policy street votes

1601
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:38,130
where we look at a way in
which like low density streets

1602
01:04:38,130 --> 01:04:42,090
could vote by qualified majority to go up

1603
01:04:42,090 --> 01:04:45,480
to like medium densities,
marvan density or Paris density.

1604
01:04:46,410 --> 01:04:50,400
And there we've always said
the street would introduce like

1605
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:54,720
strict rules on the external
appearance of these buildings.

1606
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:58,440
And the idea there is that the
street is operating like a,

1607
01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:01,140
like a democratic version
of a greater state.

1608
01:05:01,140 --> 01:05:04,320
So they, their incentive
is to maximise the value

1609
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:05,550
of the street as a whole.

1610
01:05:05,550 --> 01:05:08,070
They want to block free riders

1611
01:05:08,070 --> 01:05:11,580
because they will suffer
if there are free riders.

1612
01:05:11,580 --> 01:05:13,320
The free riders will destroy
the value of, they want

1613
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:14,520
to be in the good bit of the,

1614
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:16,680
I mean ideally each person
would like to be the one

1615
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:18,430
who can be a free rider
while everyone else is forced

1616
01:05:18,430 --> 01:05:20,890
to follow the rules,
but they can't do that.

1617
01:05:20,890 --> 01:05:24,130
So failing that they want to be in the,

1618
01:05:24,130 --> 01:05:26,680
the positive equilibrium
where everyone's controlled

1619
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:28,870
by rules of value maximised
for the street as a whole

1620
01:05:28,870 --> 01:05:30,190
- Because that means they individually

1621
01:05:30,190 --> 01:05:31,810
'cause the the same
rules apply to everybody.

1622
01:05:31,810 --> 01:05:33,730
Exactly. So they individually,
yeah, that's the best way

1623
01:05:33,730 --> 01:05:35,680
for them to individually
maximise their income. I see.

1624
01:05:35,680 --> 01:05:39,160
- So that is an attempt
to, among other things,

1625
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:41,770
that's an attempt to like
reconcile the tension

1626
01:05:41,770 --> 01:05:43,810
between densification

1627
01:05:43,810 --> 01:05:48,130
and beauty, which is
important for me emotionally

1628
01:05:49,150 --> 01:05:51,760
also is value maximising

1629
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:53,980
and also I suspect is very important

1630
01:05:53,980 --> 01:05:56,260
for like the politics of densification.

1631
01:05:56,260 --> 01:06:00,100
- Mm. - I don't know, like we
don't, there's one question

1632
01:06:00,100 --> 01:06:03,370
of like how much is the effect
on prices on the streets?

1633
01:06:03,370 --> 01:06:04,510
But there's a second question,

1634
01:06:04,510 --> 01:06:07,210
which is what's the effect
on the public response

1635
01:06:07,210 --> 01:06:08,950
to a radical policy like this?

1636
01:06:08,950 --> 01:06:11,680
And if the first photographs
start coming out from the first

1637
01:06:11,680 --> 01:06:15,220
street votes and the post-street
vote developments are like

1638
01:06:15,220 --> 01:06:18,010
hideously ugly and they get
plastered all over the tabloids

1639
01:06:18,010 --> 01:06:20,260
and over social media,
that's like potentially

1640
01:06:20,260 --> 01:06:21,850
a killer for the policy.

1641
01:06:21,850 --> 01:06:24,700
Whereas if they come
out and they look okay,

1642
01:06:24,700 --> 01:06:26,080
then that's better.

1643
01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:29,500
And if they look great, if
people say, wow, hang on, that's,

1644
01:06:29,500 --> 01:06:30,940
you've made that street a lot denser,

1645
01:06:30,940 --> 01:06:34,180
but you've actually made
it nicer, then you are,

1646
01:06:34,180 --> 01:06:35,950
you are really looking at like,

1647
01:06:35,950 --> 01:06:37,600
the emotional response is very different.

1648
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:39,310
People will think like, well
they're actually making this

1649
01:06:39,310 --> 01:06:40,630
city into a better place.

1650
01:06:40,630 --> 01:06:43,120
Let's let's, you know,
we should keep trying

1651
01:06:43,120 --> 01:06:44,650
with this policy and see what happens

1652
01:06:44,650 --> 01:06:46,090
and maybe we should expand it.

1653
01:06:46,090 --> 01:06:49,630
So I think it's pretty
important to get this right,

1654
01:06:49,630 --> 01:06:54,580
especially in places like
where places where there's a

1655
01:06:54,580 --> 01:06:57,760
long tradition of of like
caring for neighbourhoods

1656
01:06:57,760 --> 01:06:59,230
and control over places
and people are very

1657
01:06:59,230 --> 01:07:00,580
sensitive to these kinds of features.

1658
01:07:01,480 --> 01:07:05,680
- Is there anywhere that does,
let's say, kind of beauty

1659
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:08,200
and density right at
the moment in your mind?

1660
01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:10,810
The only, the only place that
I know of that I've been to

1661
01:07:10,810 --> 01:07:14,620
that seems to have a really
good land use policy is Japan,

1662
01:07:14,620 --> 01:07:16,090
but it's not a very,

1663
01:07:16,090 --> 01:07:18,460
it's it's actually quite
nice in its own way,

1664
01:07:18,460 --> 01:07:20,800
but the buildings are
individually in, in a lot of Tokyo

1665
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:24,850
for example, not particularly
pretty, they're, they're made

1666
01:07:24,850 --> 01:07:27,640
to be torn down as, as most people know,

1667
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:30,400
there is something kind of quite
wonderful about being there

1668
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:32,495
and the the actual urban
form Yeah, makes fantastic,

1669
01:07:32,495 --> 01:07:33,670
makes it feel really, really good.

1670
01:07:33,670 --> 01:07:35,530
But the individual buildings
are not, I don't think,

1671
01:07:35,530 --> 01:07:36,760
are often not beautiful.

1672
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,580
And there are beautiful
parts of Japan of course,

1673
01:07:39,580 --> 01:07:40,930
but do you think there's
anywhere that gets these

1674
01:07:40,930 --> 01:07:42,010
things, these two things,

1675
01:07:42,010 --> 01:07:43,010
- Right.

1676
01:07:43,010 --> 01:07:44,530
I don't think there's any like whole

1677
01:07:44,530 --> 01:07:46,450
country that is the example.

1678
01:07:46,450 --> 01:07:49,240
I mean there are, there
are a bunch of countries

1679
01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:50,560
where the urbanism

1680
01:07:50,560 --> 01:07:53,530
of new developments is
typically pretty good.

1681
01:07:53,530 --> 01:07:54,580
Mm. So Spain

1682
01:07:54,580 --> 01:07:55,690
and the Netherlands are the two

1683
01:07:55,690 --> 01:07:56,860
most obvious examples of that.

1684
01:07:56,860 --> 01:07:58,930
Quite different, but
both quite impressive.

1685
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:04,210
But neither of them does
that much justification

1686
01:08:04,210 --> 01:08:06,040
of existing neighbourhoods

1687
01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:09,520
and even in the good new
neighbourhoods, again,

1688
01:08:09,520 --> 01:08:11,110
it's kinda like in Japan, they're not

1689
01:08:11,110 --> 01:08:12,580
individually beautiful buildings.

1690
01:08:12,580 --> 01:08:14,660
They're like fairly ugly buildings that

1691
01:08:14,660 --> 01:08:16,460
nonetheless create good neighbourhoods

1692
01:08:16,460 --> 01:08:17,900
because the planning is

1693
01:08:17,900 --> 01:08:19,010
so good and the infrastructure and so on.

1694
01:08:20,870 --> 01:08:22,070
There are interesting, there are lots

1695
01:08:22,070 --> 01:08:24,440
of interesting individual examples.

1696
01:08:24,440 --> 01:08:28,370
There's like, which is a, a

1697
01:08:29,450 --> 01:08:30,530
World War was a kind

1698
01:08:30,530 --> 01:08:35,420
of a decay post-war social
housing estate outside Paris

1699
01:08:35,420 --> 01:08:37,550
built up fairly low densities.

1700
01:08:38,390 --> 01:08:41,000
And that's gradually being
regenerated at much higher

1701
01:08:41,000 --> 01:08:44,480
densities like very beautifully

1702
01:08:44,480 --> 01:08:47,660
and has been extremely
popular with local people

1703
01:08:47,660 --> 01:08:49,370
and is starting to create more

1704
01:08:49,370 --> 01:08:51,080
and more of a splash internationally.

1705
01:08:51,080 --> 01:08:54,050
So that like clearly shows how it's done.

1706
01:08:54,050 --> 01:08:56,600
And we've got, there are
similar like densifying estate

1707
01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:59,690
regeneration schemes in, in Britain

1708
01:08:59,690 --> 01:09:02,120
where they've clearly
improved the neighbourhood.

1709
01:09:02,120 --> 01:09:05,000
Like post regeneration estate

1710
01:09:05,000 --> 01:09:08,840
is like obviously better
on the eye than the pre

1711
01:09:08,840 --> 01:09:10,910
regeneration estate, even though it's two

1712
01:09:10,910 --> 01:09:12,500
or three times denser.

1713
01:09:12,500 --> 01:09:16,340
So, so there are success stories,

1714
01:09:16,340 --> 01:09:18,680
but I wouldn't say there's any country

1715
01:09:18,680 --> 01:09:20,930
where like the success
story has become the norm.

1716
01:09:22,130 --> 01:09:24,200
- Thank you very much Samuel Hughes.

1717
01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:26,690
You've been listening to the
Works in Progress podcast.

1718
01:09:26,690 --> 01:09:29,990
For more go to www.worksinprogress.co.