Indexed Podcast

Prediction Markets: Inside Polymarket, Kalshi, Bots & User Behaviour

Today we're joined by James Dye, full node researcher at Surf AI, to dive deep into prediction markets and the data behind Polymarket and Kalshi.

We discuss:
  • Polymarket vs Kalshi
  • Crypto markets driving volume
  • Polymarket US growth
  • Prediction market turnover
  • Sports and crypto fee engines
  • Polymarket user growth and churn
  • Which markets onboard users?
  • Geopolitics and user retention
  • Cross-category user behaviour
  • Bots vs retail traders
  • Who actually makes money?
  • Prediction markets’ future
And much more—enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:44) James Dye and Surf AI
(03:19) Prediction market data
(06:07) Polymarket vs Kalshi
(10:23) Polymarket US growth
(12:20) Turnover and fee engines
(19:33) User growth and churn
(23:32) What onboards new users?
(27:39) Retention by market
(30:05) Cross-category user behaviour
(33:10) Bots vs retail traders
(43:20) Who actually makes money?
(46:10) Prediction markets’ future
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Content links:
https://x.com/DaiZeshi/status/2036902219556213058?s=20
https://panteraresearchlab.xyz/research/crypto-on-the-clock/
https://panteraresearchlab.xyz/research/2026-h1-report-flash-boys-or-superforecasters/
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Follow the guest:
https://x.com/DaiZeshi
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Follow the co-hosts:
https://x.com/hildobby
https://x.com/0xBoxer
https://x.com/sui414
Follow the Indexed Podcast:
https://x.com/indexed_pod
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The Indexed Podcast discusses hot topics, trendy metrics and chart crimes in the crypto industry, with a new episode every 1st and 3rd Thursday of the month, brought to you by wizards @hildobby @0xBoxer @sui414.
Subscribe/follow the show and leave a comment to help us grow the show!
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DISCLAIMER: All information presented here should not be relied upon as legal, financial, investment, tax or even life advice. The views expressed in the podcast are not representative of hosts' employers views. We are acting independently of our respective professional roles.

Creators and Guests

Host
Boxer
Wizard relations @DuneAnalytics. The data must flow.
Host
danning.eth⚡️🤖
financial nihilist. mev-thirsty. data @ Flashbots. host @indexed_pod. council @thelatestindefi. previously data @0xProject @ConsenSys.
Host
hildobby
data @dragonfly_xyz / host @indexed_pod

What is Indexed Podcast?

Hi! 👋 We are 3 data nerds here to chat trendy metrics, chart crimes in web3. We hope to bring you deep dive of the topics with data-driven insights, and bring more transparency to the crypto industry! Let us know your opinions under each episode, and the topics you'd like to hear from us!

Follow us on X:
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Danning: https://twitter.com/sui414

And our website: indexedpod.com