Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (30 Oct 2025)
Episode title: Hawkish cut, softer JPY, and a one-year US–China trade truce
Summary:
USD holds gains after a “hawkish cut” from the Fed; the BoJ keeps rates on hold with two hawkish dissents but a cautious Ueda presser leaves JPY heavy. Gold reclaims $4k, oil is range-bound, and base metals cool from highs. Trump and Xi agree to a one-year truce framework: fentanyl-linked tariffs cut to 10%, tariff suspensions extended, soy purchases restart, and rare-earth frictions eased; tech restrictions remain a political flashpoint. Geopolitics stays tense but contained with Gaza ceasefire enforcement steps and a DPRK launch.
Chapters:
- 00:00 Intro & market setup
- 01:10 FX — USD bid post-FOMC; JPY softer after BoJ/Ueda; AUD supported by CPI; GBP steady
- 05:20 Commodities — gold back above $4k; crude range-bound; copper eases from highs
- 08:40 Trade — US–China one-year truce, soy buys, rare-earths, fentanyl-linked tariff cuts; tech controls debate; US–Korea package
- 14:15 Geopolitics — Gaza ceasefire enforcement; DPRK missile; China–India border talks
- 16:30 What to watch — ECB decision, euro-area data, and concrete tariff documentation/purchase flows
Key takeaways:
A firm USD into the ECB; JPY sensitive to policy nuance after a split BoJ vote; AUD underpinned by inflation. Gold steadies; oil drifts. The US–China truce headlines are potentially constructive for agricultural flows and critical minerals—confirmation and implementation will drive the next leg for FX and metals.