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Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He joins the podcast to discuss what economic indicators reveal about AI timelines. We explore why interest rates might rise if markets expect transformative AI, the gap between strong AI benchmarks and limited economic effects, and bottlenecks to AI-driven growth. We also cover market efficiency, automated AI research, and how financial markets may signal progress.
* Basil's essay on "Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates": https://basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf
* Read more about Basil's work here: https://basilhalperin.com/
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) Episode Preview
(00:49) Introduction and Background
(05:19) Efficient Market Hypothesis Explained
(10:34) Markets and Low Probability Events
(16:09) Information Diffusion on Wall Street
(24:34) Stock Prices vs Interest Rates
(28:47) New Goods Counter-Argument
(40:41) Why Focus on Interest Rates
(45:00) AI Secrecy and Market Efficiency
(50:52) Short Timeline Disagreements
(55:13) Wealth Concentration Effects
(01:01:55) Alternative Economic Indicators
(01:12:47) Benchmarks vs Economic Impact
(01:25:17) Open Research Questions
SOCIAL LINKS:
Website: https://future-of-life-institute-podcast.aipodcast.ing [http://future-of-life-institute-podcast.aipodcast.ing/]
Twitter (FLI): https://x.com/FLI_org
Twitter (Gus): https://x.com/gusdocker
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-rCCy3FQ-GItDimSR9lhzw/
Apple Podcasts: https://geo.itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/id1170991978
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Op1WO3gwVwCrYHg4eoGyP
PRODUCED BY:
https://aipodcast.ing [https://aipodcast.ing/]
Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He joins the podcast to discuss what economic indicators reveal about AI timelines. We explore why interest rates might rise if markets expect transformative AI, the gap between strong AI benchmarks and limited economic effects, and bottlenecks to AI-driven growth. We also cover market efficiency, automated AI research, and how financial markets may signal progress.
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) Episode Preview
(00:49) Introduction and Background
(05:19) Efficient Market Hypothesis Explained
(10:34) Markets and Low Probability Events
(16:09) Information Diffusion on Wall Street
(24:34) Stock Prices vs Interest Rates
(28:47) New Goods Counter-Argument
(40:41) Why Focus on Interest Rates
(45:00) AI Secrecy and Market Efficiency
(50:52) Short Timeline Disagreements
(55:13) Wealth Concentration Effects
(01:01:55) Alternative Economic Indicators
(01:12:47) Benchmarks vs Economic Impact
(01:25:17) Open Research Questions
SOCIAL LINKS:
Website: https://future-of-life-institute-podcast.aipodcast.ing
Twitter (FLI): https://x.com/FLI_org
Twitter (Gus): https://x.com/gusdocker
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-rCCy3FQ-GItDimSR9lhzw/
Apple Podcasts: https://geo.itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/id1170991978
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Op1WO3gwVwCrYHg4eoGyP
PRODUCED BY:
The Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a nonprofit working to reduce global catastrophic and existential risk from powerful technologies. In particular, FLI focuses on risks from artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, nuclear weapons and climate change. The Institute's work is made up of three main strands: grantmaking for risk reduction, educational outreach, and advocacy within the United Nations, US government and European Union institutions. FLI has become one of the world's leading voices on the governance of AI having created one of the earliest and most influential sets of governance principles: the Asilomar AI Principles.