What Trajectory for Globalisation?

Show Notes

The opportunities and risks of regionalisation

Moderator: Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute

Panellists: Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Senior Research Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House
Simon Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, St. Gallen University; Founder of the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade
Lucia Tajoli, Full Professor in Political Economics, Politecnico di Milano

This podcast episode was recorded on 24 February 2023

The 2023 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the extent and impact of regionalisation on the global trade landscape.

In this podcast, Rem Korteweg (Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute) is joined by Shannon O’Neil (Vice President, Deputy Director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations) and Vasuki Shastry (Author; Environmental, Social and Governance Advisor; previously Global Head of Public Affairs and Sustainability, Standard Chartered Bank). Listen as they discuss globalisation and its future. 

2022 was expected to be the year of the post pandemic recovery. Instead, there have been interest rate hikes across the board, the return of economic nationalism, inflation spiking in many developed economies and supply chain concerns. In discussing the most notable developments of the past year in the world of trade, what do they tell us about the future ahead? Rather than deglobalisation, is global trade being reordered increasingly along regional lines?

The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; Chatham House (UK); CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Institute of International Economic Law at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the International Chamber of Commerce (UK and France); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan) and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland). 

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of American International Group, Inc. or its subsidiaries or affiliates (“AIG”). Any content provided by our speakers are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything. AIG makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, correctness, or validity of any information provided during this podcast series and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses injuries, or damages arising from its use.

What is AIG Global Trade Series?

Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade?

Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies.

From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?