1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,340 Welcome back to the episode of the Startup Therapy Podcast. 2 00:00:02,340 --> 00:00:04,320 This is Ryan Rutan, joined as always by my 3 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,950 friend, the founder, and CEO of startups.com. 4 00:00:08,490 --> 00:00:08,850 Woo. 5 00:00:09,210 --> 00:00:12,270 Will the business of predicting the future 6 00:00:12,270 --> 00:00:13,500 is going outta business. 7 00:00:13,530 --> 00:00:13,860 Right? 8 00:00:13,860 --> 00:00:16,800 You know, forecasting used to be like pattern spotting, right? 9 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:16,920 Mm-hmm. 10 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:19,830 Markets were slow enough that a smart plan could 11 00:00:19,830 --> 00:00:20,955 outrun the variance, but. 12 00:00:21,555 --> 00:00:26,175 AI is kind of collapsing that luxury at record pace. 13 00:00:26,535 --> 00:00:29,325 I mean, it feels like every assumption decays faster 14 00:00:29,325 --> 00:00:31,815 than I can even socialize it. 15 00:00:31,815 --> 00:00:33,915 Like are you even thinking in terms of 16 00:00:33,915 --> 00:00:34,815 long-term plans anymore? 17 00:00:34,815 --> 00:00:35,505 Like what's your take on this? 18 00:00:35,505 --> 00:00:36,165 Where are we going? 19 00:00:36,165 --> 00:00:37,095 What is happening right now? 20 00:00:37,275 --> 00:00:38,835 I gotta tell you, I am Mr. 21 00:00:38,835 --> 00:00:39,765 Future, right? 22 00:00:39,765 --> 00:00:40,995 I love the future. 23 00:00:41,115 --> 00:00:41,415 Yes, 24 00:00:41,475 --> 00:00:44,025 for the first time, the future is scary. 25 00:00:44,415 --> 00:00:47,595 And when I say that, it's both exciting and 26 00:00:47,595 --> 00:00:49,215 terrifying at the same time. 27 00:00:49,605 --> 00:00:52,845 Because I look at founders and obviously we are in the 28 00:00:52,845 --> 00:00:55,725 thick of people building businesses@startups.com, right? 29 00:00:55,755 --> 00:00:55,845 Yes. 30 00:00:55,875 --> 00:00:58,545 All these people coming to us, and Ryan, how many people are 31 00:00:58,545 --> 00:01:01,215 you talking to right now that don't have an AI business? 32 00:01:01,215 --> 00:01:01,545 Right now? 33 00:01:01,545 --> 00:01:03,495 It's bringing everybody, right? 34 00:01:03,495 --> 00:01:04,125 It's everybody. 35 00:01:04,185 --> 00:01:06,495 It's blockchain and crypto all over again. 36 00:01:06,495 --> 00:01:06,795 Right? 37 00:01:06,795 --> 00:01:07,335 Exactly. 38 00:01:07,485 --> 00:01:08,805 But with a business model. 39 00:01:09,285 --> 00:01:10,365 Yeah, with a business model. 40 00:01:10,395 --> 00:01:10,664 Yeah. 41 00:01:10,725 --> 00:01:11,475 That's exactly it. 42 00:01:11,565 --> 00:01:12,105 That's exactly 43 00:01:12,105 --> 00:01:12,115 it. 44 00:01:12,115 --> 00:01:13,785 But what's interesting about it is. 45 00:01:14,130 --> 00:01:16,650 It's not that, yes, AI has all these opportunities. 46 00:01:16,950 --> 00:01:19,470 It's that all these opportunities that are being 47 00:01:19,470 --> 00:01:23,310 created are also at the same time tearing away the 48 00:01:23,310 --> 00:01:27,180 very fabric and foundation of how we build businesses. 49 00:01:27,180 --> 00:01:27,240 Yeah. 50 00:01:27,270 --> 00:01:30,990 From how we get customers to who we employ, to how we raise money 51 00:01:30,990 --> 00:01:35,250 to literally everything that we forecast and plan the future 52 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:40,020 against is being devoured, ironically, by the very people 53 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:41,220 that are building the future. 54 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:43,380 A good example right now that you know everybody 55 00:01:43,380 --> 00:01:47,580 talks about is this idea of developers basically digging 56 00:01:47,580 --> 00:01:50,370 their own graves or the graves of all other developers. 57 00:01:50,370 --> 00:01:53,310 Like every time Claude comes out with a new tool to write 58 00:01:53,310 --> 00:01:55,925 code so that they don't need more people to write code. 59 00:01:56,660 --> 00:01:58,790 It's like the other developers go, dude, 60 00:01:59,570 --> 00:01:59,870 yeah. 61 00:02:00,050 --> 00:02:00,590 Hey, stop doing. 62 00:02:01,220 --> 00:02:01,580 Yeah. 63 00:02:02,270 --> 00:02:03,230 Pump the brakes, homie. 64 00:02:03,575 --> 00:02:06,110 Yeah, it's amazing. 65 00:02:06,230 --> 00:02:06,860 No, it is. 66 00:02:06,860 --> 00:02:08,900 And to your point, like the pace at which this is 67 00:02:08,900 --> 00:02:10,910 happening has, has accelerated. 68 00:02:10,910 --> 00:02:13,610 I mean if you go back even just two years now, I mean like 69 00:02:13,610 --> 00:02:16,280 look at what's happening in two years when these tools became 70 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:17,660 like very, very mainstream. 71 00:02:17,660 --> 00:02:17,840 Right? 72 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,390 When all of a sudden your aunt is now using chat bt 73 00:02:20,390 --> 00:02:21,260 to answer questions, right? 74 00:02:21,500 --> 00:02:21,770 Like. 75 00:02:21,870 --> 00:02:24,090 It was a cool tool in everybody's hand, right? 76 00:02:24,090 --> 00:02:25,050 And that was just two years ago. 77 00:02:25,050 --> 00:02:28,620 When you look at the way that curve has accelerated between, 78 00:02:28,770 --> 00:02:30,990 oh, it can kind of put out some reasonable code now too. 79 00:02:30,990 --> 00:02:32,040 It can put out an app now. 80 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,360 It can now connect to backend database. 81 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:33,960 It can now rate it. 82 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:35,550 Now it's full product, right? 83 00:02:35,550 --> 00:02:36,750 Just give it a spec and it's off. 84 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:37,830 And so. 85 00:02:38,340 --> 00:02:43,079 The sense that that horizon is becoming even shorter, 86 00:02:43,109 --> 00:02:46,680 that the future is becoming more and more caste and fog. 87 00:02:47,130 --> 00:02:49,950 At this point, man, my plans just feel like 88 00:02:49,950 --> 00:02:51,359 guesses with better font. 89 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,790 Like that's, that's all it feels like at this point. 90 00:02:53,790 --> 00:02:55,829 It's like, why am I bothering to write this shit down by the time 91 00:02:55,829 --> 00:02:57,060 I do, it's probably obsolete. 92 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,359 I think there is a sense of excitement. 93 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:04,799 But a cloud and fog of anxiety coming behind it. 94 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,440 Okay, so now for a lot of the folks that that, that listen 95 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,690 to this podcast, you know, they're all founders obviously. 96 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:14,310 There's a, a ton of jubilation, but what we get to see is we 97 00:03:14,310 --> 00:03:16,890 also get to see the other side where, you know, we get to 98 00:03:16,890 --> 00:03:19,410 kind of get behind the curtain with people and they're like, 99 00:03:19,590 --> 00:03:21,510 huh, didn't see that coming. 100 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:21,960 Right. 101 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,930 Or a lot of people with existing businesses that are 102 00:03:24,930 --> 00:03:26,460 like, huh, here's a great one. 103 00:03:26,460 --> 00:03:26,580 You know? 104 00:03:26,580 --> 00:03:27,150 What a great one. 105 00:03:27,450 --> 00:03:28,950 How about being at Google right now? 106 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:29,100 Yeah. 107 00:03:29,549 --> 00:03:31,950 Where you've got one guy in one room, okay? 108 00:03:32,010 --> 00:03:32,220 Yep. 109 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,510 Trying to, to build the best, most amazing AI engine ever. 110 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,120 Well, the other guy in the other room, who by the way, 111 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,429 has the job that pays all the bills called Search. 112 00:03:41,429 --> 00:03:41,609 Yeah. 113 00:03:42,030 --> 00:03:43,350 Is getting cannibalized by 'em. 114 00:03:43,965 --> 00:03:46,725 It's like, dude, yeah, 115 00:03:47,565 --> 00:03:47,685 you do. 116 00:03:47,690 --> 00:03:48,315 What's, what's going on here? 117 00:03:48,315 --> 00:03:48,465 Yeah. 118 00:03:48,465 --> 00:03:51,255 You're literally watching the snake eat its tail in real time. 119 00:03:51,375 --> 00:03:53,084 It's unbelievable. 120 00:03:53,084 --> 00:03:56,924 So this episode is gonna be about not just the fact that AI 121 00:03:56,924 --> 00:03:59,355 is doing all these great things, it's also gonna be talking about 122 00:03:59,565 --> 00:04:02,805 how many things AI is about to make much more difficult 123 00:04:02,805 --> 00:04:05,714 for us and the forecastability of founders and kind of. 124 00:04:05,925 --> 00:04:08,835 What we're seeing across the board for founders that 125 00:04:08,835 --> 00:04:11,445 this isn't all, you know, sunshine and rainbows. 126 00:04:11,655 --> 00:04:13,935 There's some really big problems that this is 127 00:04:13,935 --> 00:04:16,935 creating for us to be able to forecast and build businesses. 128 00:04:17,175 --> 00:04:20,715 So let's start with all of the foundations that we've 129 00:04:20,715 --> 00:04:23,565 been used to forecasting against, like the big ones. 130 00:04:24,104 --> 00:04:26,565 That have all gone away or crumbling the fastest. 131 00:04:26,924 --> 00:04:29,445 You're our chief marketing officer@startups.com. 132 00:04:29,565 --> 00:04:31,664 Let's talk about the marketing pillars first. 133 00:04:31,905 --> 00:04:33,315 What could you count on first? 134 00:04:33,555 --> 00:04:34,275 What's going away? 135 00:04:34,635 --> 00:04:37,905 Yeah, I mean like organic search is becoming eviscerated, right? 136 00:04:37,905 --> 00:04:39,674 That was something that if you had taken the time to 137 00:04:39,674 --> 00:04:42,554 build that, you had a fairly defensible castle there, right? 138 00:04:42,554 --> 00:04:42,974 Like right. 139 00:04:43,025 --> 00:04:45,424 It takes a long time to build, but then if you're paying 140 00:04:45,424 --> 00:04:47,465 attention to the shifts, you could, you could kind of say, 141 00:04:47,465 --> 00:04:49,354 okay, well like, yeah, we're losing some traffic here. 142 00:04:49,354 --> 00:04:50,465 Okay, let's, let's bolster that. 143 00:04:50,465 --> 00:04:51,515 Let's build some new content. 144 00:04:51,515 --> 00:04:53,495 Let's make a microsite, let's do whatever. 145 00:04:53,854 --> 00:04:55,534 Just getting shot to pieces. 146 00:04:55,534 --> 00:04:57,335 And so what you would typically do in that place say, okay, 147 00:04:57,335 --> 00:05:00,484 well right now somebody's just eaten our lunch, so 148 00:05:00,515 --> 00:05:01,625 we'll just buy it back. 149 00:05:01,655 --> 00:05:03,304 We'll just switch over to paid search until we, 150 00:05:03,304 --> 00:05:04,174 until we buy that back. 151 00:05:04,715 --> 00:05:06,215 But when nobody's searching. 152 00:05:08,475 --> 00:05:09,225 What do you do? 153 00:05:09,495 --> 00:05:09,855 Right? 154 00:05:09,855 --> 00:05:11,985 Nobody's searching and, and Ryan think of how many 155 00:05:11,985 --> 00:05:13,335 businesses that affects, right? 156 00:05:13,335 --> 00:05:15,435 So we are an online business like, oh, 157 00:05:15,435 --> 00:05:16,425 you're those tech guys. 158 00:05:16,785 --> 00:05:18,855 Dude, it affects plumbers, right? 159 00:05:18,855 --> 00:05:21,285 It affects everybody that, that has anything to do 160 00:05:21,285 --> 00:05:23,325 with, you know, the internet drives your business, which 161 00:05:23,325 --> 00:05:24,555 is kind of almost everybody. 162 00:05:24,930 --> 00:05:26,670 And it's happening across channels, right? 163 00:05:26,670 --> 00:05:28,740 So one of the things that we, you know, everybody's 164 00:05:28,740 --> 00:05:30,659 getting excited right now because the barriers are 165 00:05:30,659 --> 00:05:31,560 getting so much lower, right? 166 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:32,880 So this is one of the things that you were saying before. 167 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,530 Founders are excited about the fact that like, 168 00:05:34,530 --> 00:05:35,849 look, I can code now. 169 00:05:35,849 --> 00:05:36,659 I couldn't code before. 170 00:05:36,870 --> 00:05:37,890 So can everybody else. 171 00:05:37,890 --> 00:05:38,375 So can everybody else. 172 00:05:38,415 --> 00:05:40,950 I can crank out 10 times as much, uh, social media content 173 00:05:40,950 --> 00:05:41,670 now that I could before. 174 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:42,510 So can everybody else. 175 00:05:42,510 --> 00:05:43,500 That is the biggest problem. 176 00:05:43,500 --> 00:05:46,650 Just keep inserting that everywhere you look right and, 177 00:05:46,650 --> 00:05:48,960 you know, the, the inundation of content people are just becoming 178 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:50,909 blind to content now like it is. 179 00:05:51,435 --> 00:05:52,935 It was already tough, right? 180 00:05:52,940 --> 00:05:52,990 Yeah. 181 00:05:52,995 --> 00:05:56,445 The last five years, in terms of what it takes to 182 00:05:56,445 --> 00:05:59,505 capture someone's attention, has become extremely hard. 183 00:05:59,835 --> 00:05:59,955 Yep. 184 00:05:59,985 --> 00:06:03,945 In the last year, it has become damn near impossible unless 185 00:06:03,945 --> 00:06:08,055 you happen to be the end result in a chat GBT conversation. 186 00:06:08,445 --> 00:06:08,655 Right? 187 00:06:08,655 --> 00:06:10,405 The chance that somebody's just gonna come and visit you, 188 00:06:10,890 --> 00:06:14,025 uh, has become significantly lower, uh, and significantly, 189 00:06:14,295 --> 00:06:14,985 exponentially lower. 190 00:06:15,734 --> 00:06:17,864 You know what's funny is yesterday all these 191 00:06:17,864 --> 00:06:20,174 podcasts also double as a newsletter that we send 192 00:06:20,174 --> 00:06:21,315 out to all of our members. 193 00:06:21,614 --> 00:06:24,164 And yesterday one of our members wrote back and said, 194 00:06:24,224 --> 00:06:25,934 will I gotta be honest, this sounds like chat gt. 195 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:27,090 Right. 196 00:06:27,239 --> 00:06:29,700 And he cited a couple of things in the newsletter. 197 00:06:29,940 --> 00:06:32,400 That's, that sounded like Chachi, BT, and I said, 198 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:33,989 you know, what's the most embarrassing thing? 199 00:06:34,169 --> 00:06:34,799 It's not, 200 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:35,640 yeah. 201 00:06:36,090 --> 00:06:36,210 It's 202 00:06:36,210 --> 00:06:36,989 like the most embarrassing thing. 203 00:06:36,989 --> 00:06:37,530 No, I took the time 204 00:06:37,530 --> 00:06:38,789 to write this so that it could 205 00:06:38,789 --> 00:06:39,270 look like 206 00:06:39,270 --> 00:06:39,810 AI content. 207 00:06:39,810 --> 00:06:40,560 Actually did write that. 208 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:40,830 Right? 209 00:06:40,835 --> 00:06:44,130 And, and, and I, I joked him, I said, maybe I'm spending so much 210 00:06:44,130 --> 00:06:48,219 time these days with Chachi bt that I'm inheriting Chachi Bt. 211 00:06:48,415 --> 00:06:49,795 Like, like their nuances. 212 00:06:50,125 --> 00:06:53,845 But what I'm saying is even my own prose doesn't 213 00:06:53,845 --> 00:06:55,015 sound like me anymore. 214 00:06:55,045 --> 00:06:57,355 I mean, and it, it actually is me. 215 00:06:57,475 --> 00:06:59,995 That'd be like us, somebody watching this podcast and 216 00:06:59,995 --> 00:07:01,825 make, honestly, it doesn't even sound like you guys anymore. 217 00:07:01,825 --> 00:07:01,885 Yeah. 218 00:07:02,005 --> 00:07:02,700 Like god damn man. 219 00:07:02,820 --> 00:07:04,765 I can tell, I can tell by the way Ryan's looking directly 220 00:07:04,765 --> 00:07:07,015 into the camera, that that's just eye contact, right. 221 00:07:07,015 --> 00:07:08,245 He's not really doing that. 222 00:07:08,245 --> 00:07:08,420 Of course. 223 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:08,900 I'm, oh 224 00:07:08,900 --> 00:07:09,895 my god damn, 225 00:07:09,895 --> 00:07:11,905 taking years of practice to learn to do this and now 226 00:07:11,905 --> 00:07:13,885 it doesn't matter anymore because Nvidia can just make 227 00:07:13,885 --> 00:07:14,845 that happen no matter what. 228 00:07:14,995 --> 00:07:15,355 I know. 229 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:15,620 And so. 230 00:07:16,265 --> 00:07:18,664 I say this, okay, so that's one pillar and, and we just, 231 00:07:18,664 --> 00:07:19,864 I mean, scratch the surface. 232 00:07:19,955 --> 00:07:24,155 One pillar was if I launch a business, whatever it is, I have 233 00:07:24,155 --> 00:07:28,534 certain places I can count on to either develop or buy traffic. 234 00:07:28,864 --> 00:07:30,544 Yeah, I can get traffic to my thing. 235 00:07:31,145 --> 00:07:31,354 Yep. 236 00:07:31,354 --> 00:07:34,174 And for a very long time, that was a fairly well 237 00:07:34,354 --> 00:07:36,330 understood mechanic foundation. 238 00:07:37,070 --> 00:07:38,130 Now it's kind of going away. 239 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,280 Yeah, let's look at some other pillars, because that's 240 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,520 just one, and you touched on something that I, I don't wanna 241 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,859 let go when it's easier for you. 242 00:07:47,250 --> 00:07:50,489 It's easier for everyone else, and it becomes 243 00:07:50,489 --> 00:07:51,159 a race to the bottom. 244 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:52,470 Yes. 245 00:07:52,740 --> 00:07:55,380 So, oh, I can post on social media easier. 246 00:07:55,530 --> 00:07:58,110 I can make, uh, responses to people's comments on 247 00:07:58,110 --> 00:07:59,100 my social media easier. 248 00:07:59,250 --> 00:08:02,880 So can everyone else, and they will really 249 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:04,470 quickly, really poorly. 250 00:08:04,710 --> 00:08:07,290 Ryan, how many of the comments on your social media, your 251 00:08:07,290 --> 00:08:09,690 LinkedIn, whatever, are actual people anymore? 252 00:08:10,255 --> 00:08:12,055 Maybe, maybe, I'm not kidding. 253 00:08:12,115 --> 00:08:14,275 Five to 10% max. 254 00:08:14,575 --> 00:08:14,785 Right? 255 00:08:14,785 --> 00:08:14,935 That 256 00:08:14,935 --> 00:08:15,355 happened in 257 00:08:15,505 --> 00:08:16,075 five seconds. 258 00:08:16,075 --> 00:08:16,730 Was man, interesting. 259 00:08:16,730 --> 00:08:17,365 Is that like Right? 260 00:08:17,365 --> 00:08:19,225 And that, so this is one of the funniest things. 261 00:08:19,225 --> 00:08:22,465 So when, when people started using AI to post a lot more 262 00:08:22,465 --> 00:08:25,645 content, they were like, and it's getting engagement. 263 00:08:25,765 --> 00:08:27,655 And then if you go and look at the engagement. 264 00:08:27,705 --> 00:08:29,715 That's all AI nonsense, right? 265 00:08:29,715 --> 00:08:31,215 That's not actually engagement. 266 00:08:31,215 --> 00:08:32,835 So you know, everybody's really excited, but they're 267 00:08:32,835 --> 00:08:35,025 like, look, I can just crank out stuff that sounds kind 268 00:08:35,025 --> 00:08:37,454 of like me and I'm getting better engagement than ever. 269 00:08:37,454 --> 00:08:38,235 No, you're not. 270 00:08:38,265 --> 00:08:40,635 Not when you actually peel back the curtain there and 271 00:08:40,635 --> 00:08:43,155 go, the wizard deposit is standing back here commenting 272 00:08:43,155 --> 00:08:44,655 on behalf of everyone. 273 00:08:44,655 --> 00:08:46,064 That was my chat. 274 00:08:46,064 --> 00:08:46,785 GPT. 275 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:48,960 Talking to everyone else's chat, GBT. 276 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:49,320 Neat. 277 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:50,040 What have we done here? 278 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:50,490 Nothing. 279 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:51,120 Dude. 280 00:08:51,180 --> 00:08:54,750 The signal to noise ratio has never been further 281 00:08:54,750 --> 00:08:56,250 out of whack, right? 282 00:08:56,250 --> 00:08:56,520 Like 283 00:08:56,580 --> 00:08:56,880 right 284 00:08:57,060 --> 00:08:59,850 On the other hand, it's kind of like walking through a 285 00:08:59,850 --> 00:09:03,510 garden in November and finding like a ripe strawberry. 286 00:09:03,829 --> 00:09:04,339 Out there. 287 00:09:04,339 --> 00:09:06,020 It's like when you do find something, you 288 00:09:06,020 --> 00:09:07,489 appreciate it so greatly. 289 00:09:07,849 --> 00:09:09,859 It's like, God, I haven't seen these, I haven't 290 00:09:09,859 --> 00:09:11,089 seen these since June. 291 00:09:11,089 --> 00:09:11,959 This is amazing. 292 00:09:12,290 --> 00:09:12,589 Right? 293 00:09:12,650 --> 00:09:15,680 But it's so rare and they're so hard to find it, and there's not 294 00:09:15,680 --> 00:09:16,760 like a reliable way to do it. 295 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,439 And I think that's what's really frustrating. 296 00:09:18,530 --> 00:09:21,410 Um, a lot of marketers right now is that like, even if 297 00:09:21,410 --> 00:09:23,479 you want to do the right things, even if you are 298 00:09:23,479 --> 00:09:27,140 building high quality content and just really good stuff, 299 00:09:27,380 --> 00:09:29,869 your ability to accurately distribute that to people and 300 00:09:29,869 --> 00:09:32,150 have them know is almost zero. 301 00:09:32,625 --> 00:09:33,045 I agree. 302 00:09:33,255 --> 00:09:34,905 So it's becoming so frustrating that people aren't even 303 00:09:34,905 --> 00:09:35,745 trying at this point. 304 00:09:35,745 --> 00:09:39,135 I'm watching tons and tons of marketers mail it in, 305 00:09:39,675 --> 00:09:41,595 not because they're not capable, not because they 306 00:09:41,595 --> 00:09:44,625 don't want to, but because it gets the same damn result. 307 00:09:44,625 --> 00:09:45,735 So why not? 308 00:09:45,885 --> 00:09:47,775 And that really scares the shit outta me. 309 00:09:47,865 --> 00:09:48,165 Okay. 310 00:09:48,165 --> 00:09:48,975 Let's take that then. 311 00:09:49,275 --> 00:09:53,745 So marketing is becoming an imploding foundation, right? 312 00:09:53,745 --> 00:09:54,045 Yes. 313 00:09:54,495 --> 00:09:55,455 At a co on itself. 314 00:09:55,455 --> 00:09:58,305 The very tools that we're supposed to make it better yes. 315 00:09:58,305 --> 00:09:59,505 Are actually eroding it. 316 00:09:59,895 --> 00:10:00,135 Okay. 317 00:10:00,165 --> 00:10:00,855 Oh, completely. 318 00:10:01,065 --> 00:10:01,485 Big time. 319 00:10:01,665 --> 00:10:03,075 So that's not a small one, guys. 320 00:10:03,075 --> 00:10:04,125 That's a giant one. 321 00:10:04,395 --> 00:10:07,215 Next up, as part of building a business, we 322 00:10:07,215 --> 00:10:08,325 are gonna hire talent. 323 00:10:08,445 --> 00:10:09,525 We're gonna hire humans. 324 00:10:09,555 --> 00:10:09,705 Okay? 325 00:10:09,705 --> 00:10:12,135 Now this, this has a two-sided concern to it. 326 00:10:12,555 --> 00:10:15,495 One was, well, I need to hire, this is again, internet 327 00:10:15,495 --> 00:10:16,305 companies, but whatever. 328 00:10:16,425 --> 00:10:17,505 I need to hire developers. 329 00:10:17,505 --> 00:10:18,405 I need to hire marketers. 330 00:10:18,405 --> 00:10:20,775 I need to hire, um, ops people and hire all these people. 331 00:10:21,105 --> 00:10:24,345 And now it's like, do I, what would they do? 332 00:10:24,555 --> 00:10:27,105 Remember everybody had the consummate social media manager. 333 00:10:27,420 --> 00:10:27,710 Yeah. 334 00:10:27,715 --> 00:10:28,065 Yeah. 335 00:10:28,665 --> 00:10:30,105 What does that person do anymore? 336 00:10:30,435 --> 00:10:30,765 Right? 337 00:10:30,765 --> 00:10:32,925 Like it's become less of a bot. 338 00:10:33,135 --> 00:10:35,714 Now, again, I'm not knocking the social media manager. 339 00:10:35,834 --> 00:10:37,095 Let's move over to the developer. 340 00:10:37,334 --> 00:10:37,755 Okay? 341 00:10:37,845 --> 00:10:38,084 Yeah. 342 00:10:38,265 --> 00:10:40,725 Ryan, you've been cranking out stuff and lovable as an example. 343 00:10:40,935 --> 00:10:41,084 Yep. 344 00:10:41,084 --> 00:10:41,324 Right? 345 00:10:41,475 --> 00:10:44,564 If you were building a new company five years ago, there's 346 00:10:44,564 --> 00:10:47,265 absolutely none of what you've been cranking out that you 347 00:10:47,265 --> 00:10:48,975 could have done by yourself. 348 00:10:48,975 --> 00:10:49,365 Impossible. 349 00:10:49,680 --> 00:10:51,900 At that level, like connect to a database layer or 350 00:10:51,900 --> 00:10:52,709 anything else like that? 351 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:53,100 Nope. 352 00:10:53,370 --> 00:10:54,750 Let alone make it responsive. 353 00:10:54,750 --> 00:10:55,829 All the other things, right? 354 00:10:55,834 --> 00:10:56,925 Forget there's so many things that 355 00:10:57,314 --> 00:10:57,844 been possible, 356 00:10:57,844 --> 00:10:58,045 forget 357 00:10:58,045 --> 00:10:58,285 about, right? 358 00:10:58,285 --> 00:10:59,730 No different than prior to Shopify. 359 00:10:59,730 --> 00:11:02,459 You, in order to get that level of e-commerce 360 00:11:02,459 --> 00:11:04,469 and CMS and everything else, like tied to that. 361 00:11:04,740 --> 00:11:05,250 No way. 362 00:11:05,370 --> 00:11:06,360 And it's damn near free. 363 00:11:06,420 --> 00:11:07,469 That's the other side of it, right? 364 00:11:07,469 --> 00:11:08,819 This isn't like HubSpot pricing. 365 00:11:08,819 --> 00:11:11,310 It's so cheap that it's inconsequential. 366 00:11:11,310 --> 00:11:13,650 Like the, the cost of it doesn't actually matter. 367 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:17,189 So who are you hiring for that as part of your new company? 368 00:11:17,250 --> 00:11:17,310 Yeah. 369 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:18,090 Right. 370 00:11:18,540 --> 00:11:20,430 And are you hiring somebody? 371 00:11:20,430 --> 00:11:23,880 Because if you do like, and then you find out five minutes later 372 00:11:24,180 --> 00:11:25,620 that their job is a prompt now. 373 00:11:25,620 --> 00:11:25,680 Yeah. 374 00:11:26,070 --> 00:11:27,000 What's that look like? 375 00:11:27,300 --> 00:11:27,630 Right. 376 00:11:27,635 --> 00:11:27,645 Right. 377 00:11:28,290 --> 00:11:32,160 In the converse, if you are that person, the social media 378 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,640 manager, the developer, like people who are fundamentally 379 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,420 the staples of our ecosystem, of our startup world. 380 00:11:39,420 --> 00:11:39,540 Right. 381 00:11:39,540 --> 00:11:40,590 Every startup weekend. 382 00:11:40,680 --> 00:11:40,890 Right. 383 00:11:40,890 --> 00:11:42,660 You know, we always talk about Startup weekend. 384 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:43,860 I don't even if it's around anymore. 385 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,110 There was always a, a social person or a marketing 386 00:11:46,290 --> 00:11:48,990 person, a developer person or product person, whatever. 387 00:11:49,350 --> 00:11:51,120 Like you're putting together your role playing, 388 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:52,230 uh, team, you know, it's 389 00:11:52,230 --> 00:11:52,829 exactly right. 390 00:11:52,829 --> 00:11:53,310 You, yeah. 391 00:11:53,310 --> 00:11:53,970 You're dungeon 392 00:11:53,970 --> 00:11:54,510 Dragon Party. 393 00:11:54,810 --> 00:11:55,265 Gotta have a warrior, a mage. 394 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:58,950 And all those people aren't employed now. 395 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:00,660 It's bizarre. 396 00:12:01,410 --> 00:12:01,710 Yes. 397 00:12:01,710 --> 00:12:06,360 And, and the reason I'm bringing this up is because of definitely 398 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,650 a fundamental pillar of building a company was hiring people. 399 00:12:11,189 --> 00:12:13,620 Now there's so many, some people listening and they're gonna 400 00:12:13,620 --> 00:12:15,210 say, well, that's bullshit. 401 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:16,770 I'm still hiring people, et cetera. 402 00:12:17,100 --> 00:12:17,610 I get it. 403 00:12:17,670 --> 00:12:18,660 We, we have a staff. 404 00:12:18,660 --> 00:12:20,250 It's not like we have nobody that works here, 405 00:12:21,420 --> 00:12:22,350 but it's getting weird. 406 00:12:22,890 --> 00:12:23,820 It's getting weird. 407 00:12:24,390 --> 00:12:26,010 Right, and I'm not, I'm not pointing this 408 00:12:26,010 --> 00:12:26,850 to toward our staff. 409 00:12:26,850 --> 00:12:28,215 I'm saying for startups as a whole. 410 00:12:28,985 --> 00:12:29,275 Yeah. 411 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:29,415 Yeah. 412 00:12:29,625 --> 00:12:29,955 Right. 413 00:12:30,105 --> 00:12:34,725 It's getting weird to say, what are we hiring for@startups.com? 414 00:12:34,725 --> 00:12:37,485 We don't have a single open position 'cause we can't 415 00:12:37,485 --> 00:12:38,865 figure out who we'd even hire. 416 00:12:38,925 --> 00:12:39,135 Right. 417 00:12:39,135 --> 00:12:40,125 How weird is that? 418 00:12:40,185 --> 00:12:40,470 Yeah, yeah. 419 00:12:40,515 --> 00:12:42,615 You're constantly trying to figure out how the 420 00:12:42,615 --> 00:12:43,545 people you already have. 421 00:12:43,770 --> 00:12:46,470 Probably could and should or are already doing more 422 00:12:46,470 --> 00:12:47,670 than they ever were before. 423 00:12:47,790 --> 00:12:50,790 And so just by virtue of, of some of those 424 00:12:50,790 --> 00:12:51,840 productivity increases. 425 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,329 Now again, like I said before, some of those actually came 426 00:12:54,329 --> 00:12:55,770 with performance drops, right? 427 00:12:55,770 --> 00:12:59,340 Meaning that like I can crank out 10 X the content that I ever 428 00:12:59,340 --> 00:13:01,170 could on LinkedIn and it'll get. 429 00:13:01,575 --> 00:13:04,335 20 x the engagement it ever did with absolutely 430 00:13:04,335 --> 00:13:05,565 zero meaningful results. 431 00:13:05,570 --> 00:13:05,805 Right, right. 432 00:13:05,805 --> 00:13:09,345 So there, there is that side of it, but it seems like all of 433 00:13:09,345 --> 00:13:13,335 those productivity gains and all of this like expanded capability 434 00:13:13,755 --> 00:13:17,835 just erased future hiring needs at, at least for a, the 435 00:13:17,835 --> 00:13:19,545 foreseeable future, which again. 436 00:13:20,444 --> 00:13:22,814 He's now like, dude, do we have a roadmap anymore? 437 00:13:22,814 --> 00:13:25,215 I feel like our roadmap is just an etches sketch 438 00:13:25,935 --> 00:13:28,335 being written by somebody in a really bumpy ass car. 439 00:13:28,335 --> 00:13:28,574 Right? 440 00:13:28,574 --> 00:13:30,435 Like it's just constantly erasing itself. 441 00:13:30,435 --> 00:13:30,444 Shaking. 442 00:13:30,444 --> 00:13:31,840 Yeah, because it's a great metaphor. 443 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:32,925 It's a self shaking etch of sketch. 444 00:13:32,925 --> 00:13:34,635 That's what we're building our roadmaps on at this point. 445 00:13:34,965 --> 00:13:37,035 How the hell do you hire against something like that, 446 00:13:37,365 --> 00:13:37,635 buddy? 447 00:13:37,635 --> 00:13:39,285 Let's go back five years. 448 00:13:39,285 --> 00:13:40,215 Let's go back to COVID. 449 00:13:40,220 --> 00:13:40,640 Oh my God, right. 450 00:13:41,234 --> 00:13:46,395 Um, where it was just a hiring spree where people needed 400 451 00:13:46,395 --> 00:13:49,125 engineers to build a venture funded, funded company. 452 00:13:49,155 --> 00:13:49,275 Yep. 453 00:13:49,334 --> 00:13:49,604 Right? 454 00:13:49,814 --> 00:13:49,964 Yep. 455 00:13:49,969 --> 00:13:51,795 And, and, and what I'm getting at here, it's not that you 456 00:13:51,795 --> 00:13:52,694 don't need to hire anybody. 457 00:13:52,694 --> 00:13:53,474 I'm not saying that. 458 00:13:53,984 --> 00:13:56,984 I'm saying one of the fundamental pillars of 459 00:13:56,984 --> 00:13:59,834 building a startup was hiring a ton of people, or at 460 00:13:59,834 --> 00:14:01,395 least hiring it all, right? 461 00:14:01,574 --> 00:14:01,755 Yep. 462 00:14:02,145 --> 00:14:03,645 In that whole world. 463 00:14:04,065 --> 00:14:07,695 Is getting so twisted and turned upside down. 464 00:14:07,815 --> 00:14:10,185 And again, this episode is about the predictability. 465 00:14:10,185 --> 00:14:11,475 Yeah, it's about stuff. 466 00:14:11,475 --> 00:14:14,415 We used to be able to just say, yes, you'll need that. 467 00:14:14,595 --> 00:14:17,385 Or yes, it's a known and we're going, what 468 00:14:17,385 --> 00:14:18,120 the hell just happened? 469 00:14:18,810 --> 00:14:20,040 What the hell just happened? 470 00:14:20,310 --> 00:14:21,390 Bring it back to hiring. 471 00:14:21,390 --> 00:14:24,600 At this point, like if I were to think about a person 472 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,510 that I'm not already working with, one of the number one 473 00:14:27,510 --> 00:14:30,690 things on the top of my, my list would be swap ability. 474 00:14:30,870 --> 00:14:31,050 Right? 475 00:14:31,050 --> 00:14:31,110 Yeah. 476 00:14:31,110 --> 00:14:33,180 Like as I'm thinking about a human stack like 477 00:14:33,180 --> 00:14:35,340 this has, this person has to be swappable, right? 478 00:14:35,340 --> 00:14:35,430 Yep. 479 00:14:35,430 --> 00:14:37,260 I have to, to contract for outcomes at this 480 00:14:37,260 --> 00:14:38,160 point, not roles. 481 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,010 It just has to be like outcome driven, which may only be. 482 00:14:41,055 --> 00:14:42,584 Two or three weeks worth of work. 483 00:14:42,584 --> 00:14:43,905 But that's as far out as we can see. 484 00:14:43,905 --> 00:14:47,025 As far as I'm gonna plan, that's as far out as I can hire. 485 00:14:47,025 --> 00:14:49,905 If hire is even really it, like at this point, contracting 486 00:14:49,905 --> 00:14:52,635 would be where it's at for me, not full-time roles. 487 00:14:52,724 --> 00:14:55,214 Uh, because honestly, like I wouldn't feel comfortable. 488 00:14:55,214 --> 00:14:56,745 I wouldn't feel responsible hiring 489 00:14:56,745 --> 00:14:58,094 somebody when I know that. 490 00:14:58,829 --> 00:15:00,689 The whole thing that I'm gonna have them doing might 491 00:15:00,689 --> 00:15:03,449 get completely eviscerated, obliterated within weeks. 492 00:15:04,110 --> 00:15:04,350 Right? 493 00:15:04,350 --> 00:15:06,810 That feature that we're specing out or that campaign that 494 00:15:06,810 --> 00:15:10,380 we're building out might turn into a prompt next week, or it 495 00:15:10,380 --> 00:15:13,500 might just become completely irrelevant because now chat, 496 00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:15,720 GPT does the thing that we were planning on marketing. 497 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:15,959 Right? 498 00:15:15,959 --> 00:15:16,620 Who knows? 499 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:18,000 Okay, so let's stick with that. 500 00:15:18,030 --> 00:15:19,500 'cause you're, you're now talking about the next 501 00:15:19,500 --> 00:15:20,550 pillar, which is product. 502 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:21,630 Yeah, 503 00:15:21,690 --> 00:15:25,710 it used to be that if we took the time to build and invest 504 00:15:25,710 --> 00:15:29,190 in a product, that we had some level of understanding that 505 00:15:29,190 --> 00:15:31,920 that product would be relevant for some period of time. 506 00:15:32,430 --> 00:15:34,590 You know, a moment ago, you and I were talking, you know, uh, 507 00:15:34,590 --> 00:15:36,720 prior to the show, uh, we were talking about, uh, TurboTax. 508 00:15:37,410 --> 00:15:37,500 Yep. 509 00:15:37,890 --> 00:15:39,390 We were talking about your products that like, you know, 510 00:15:39,390 --> 00:15:40,410 have been around forever. 511 00:15:40,415 --> 00:15:40,844 Forever. 512 00:15:40,844 --> 00:15:40,854 Yeah. 513 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,189 That thing has been the world's greatest cash cow. 514 00:15:44,219 --> 00:15:46,380 You know, Intuit is actually just the amount 515 00:15:46,380 --> 00:15:49,439 of money that company has made on frigging TurboTax. 516 00:15:49,439 --> 00:15:49,530 Yes. 517 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,680 Which is a dog shit piece of software Yeah. 518 00:15:52,860 --> 00:15:54,689 That I've used religiously for decades. 519 00:15:54,719 --> 00:15:54,990 Right. 520 00:15:55,890 --> 00:15:58,620 It might as well come on a three and a half inch floppy disc. 521 00:15:58,650 --> 00:15:58,920 Right. 522 00:15:58,925 --> 00:15:59,045 I 523 00:15:59,045 --> 00:16:01,170 mean, it probably still does 'cause they haven't updated the 524 00:16:01,170 --> 00:16:03,480 product enough to, you know, make it worth having a cd. 525 00:16:03,905 --> 00:16:06,935 But I say this, they have an understanding, they have 526 00:16:06,935 --> 00:16:09,875 a pact with the market that says, this product does 527 00:16:09,875 --> 00:16:12,215 this thing, and we do this thing in the, in the market. 528 00:16:12,395 --> 00:16:13,115 And you know us. 529 00:16:13,115 --> 00:16:13,985 You trust us. 530 00:16:14,195 --> 00:16:16,385 And for better or for worse, for the price point that 531 00:16:16,385 --> 00:16:19,205 we offer, this is the most efficient way to do this thing. 532 00:16:19,355 --> 00:16:22,235 And they, and that pact is held true and then it didn't. 533 00:16:22,565 --> 00:16:22,775 Right? 534 00:16:22,775 --> 00:16:25,745 Now look, software consumes itself all the time, but 535 00:16:25,745 --> 00:16:26,555 this one's different. 536 00:16:26,910 --> 00:16:29,670 This is like, it gets consumed and then gone forever. 537 00:16:30,090 --> 00:16:30,300 Yeah. 538 00:16:30,330 --> 00:16:33,240 How is an entire tax planning industry 539 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:35,250 getting consumed forever? 540 00:16:35,250 --> 00:16:38,220 And I'm just picking on one randomly yesterday, 541 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:39,960 and again, I'm kind of date stamping this a little bit. 542 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:41,940 We're in Q1 of, uh, 2026. 543 00:16:42,150 --> 00:16:45,180 The Washington Post let go a third of their staff, right? 544 00:16:45,180 --> 00:16:46,590 Most people don't notice these headlines. 545 00:16:46,590 --> 00:16:49,050 I watch all this stuff and they said part of what's 546 00:16:49,050 --> 00:16:51,690 happening is that people aren't searching anymore. 547 00:16:51,870 --> 00:16:52,710 They're just using ai. 548 00:16:53,025 --> 00:16:54,735 That's just the, the Washington Post, and that 549 00:16:54,735 --> 00:16:57,135 obviously affects everybody with an information business. 550 00:16:57,555 --> 00:17:00,885 They can no longer deliver news because the people that 551 00:17:00,885 --> 00:17:04,815 would look for news don't even go to the internet to them. 552 00:17:04,819 --> 00:17:04,930 Right? 553 00:17:05,085 --> 00:17:05,385 Right. 554 00:17:05,385 --> 00:17:07,365 They got subsumed by AI and chat. 555 00:17:07,694 --> 00:17:12,765 Think about how many entire industries just vanished. 556 00:17:12,765 --> 00:17:14,355 Like Thanos snapping his finger. 557 00:17:14,444 --> 00:17:14,685 Yeah. 558 00:17:15,165 --> 00:17:15,525 Right. 559 00:17:15,885 --> 00:17:16,425 Whoa. 560 00:17:16,755 --> 00:17:19,425 You can't even rely on the fact that if you build a 561 00:17:19,425 --> 00:17:22,065 product that the entire market. 562 00:17:22,845 --> 00:17:25,545 Won't just implode dude in a year. 563 00:17:26,715 --> 00:17:27,195 In a year. 564 00:17:27,255 --> 00:17:27,555 Right? 565 00:17:27,615 --> 00:17:29,685 That's, and that, and that's right now, so this 566 00:17:29,685 --> 00:17:30,220 is where that's happening 567 00:17:30,225 --> 00:17:30,615 right now. 568 00:17:30,675 --> 00:17:31,215 Absolutely. 569 00:17:31,215 --> 00:17:32,265 Crazy to think about. 570 00:17:32,415 --> 00:17:34,905 Again, this, the curve is, is getting steeper and steeper. 571 00:17:34,905 --> 00:17:35,715 It's accelerating. 572 00:17:36,075 --> 00:17:39,225 And so, you know, watching industry implode in a year 573 00:17:39,255 --> 00:17:41,780 might happen in a week by this time next year. 574 00:17:42,745 --> 00:17:45,715 Because the, the speed, the adoption and the rate of 575 00:17:45,715 --> 00:17:47,995 change is just continuously accelerating at this point. 576 00:17:48,325 --> 00:17:51,024 You know, something that's really funny about everything 577 00:17:51,024 --> 00:17:54,504 we talk about here is that none of it is new. 578 00:17:54,745 --> 00:17:57,325 Everything you're dealing with right now has been done a 579 00:17:57,325 --> 00:18:01,165 thousand times before you, which means the answer already exists. 580 00:18:01,165 --> 00:18:02,044 You may just not know it. 581 00:18:02,250 --> 00:18:03,030 But that's okay. 582 00:18:03,390 --> 00:18:05,190 That's kind of what we're here to do. 583 00:18:05,250 --> 00:18:07,860 We talk about this stuff on the show, but we actually 584 00:18:07,860 --> 00:18:12,000 solve these problems all dayLong@groups.startups.com. 585 00:18:12,090 --> 00:18:12,360 So 586 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,380 if any of this sounds familiar, stop guessing about what to do, 587 00:18:16,620 --> 00:18:19,770 let us just give you the answers to the test and be done with it. 588 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,410 The last one I wanna touch on and again, and we'll, we will 589 00:18:22,410 --> 00:18:24,930 just kind of like, like lay out all the ones is investment. 590 00:18:24,990 --> 00:18:26,190 I think this one's just ing. 591 00:18:26,190 --> 00:18:26,250 Yeah. 592 00:18:26,310 --> 00:18:27,450 It's not being talked about enough. 593 00:18:27,450 --> 00:18:27,510 Yeah. 594 00:18:27,930 --> 00:18:28,590 Investment. 595 00:18:29,250 --> 00:18:30,750 If you are an investor right now. 596 00:18:31,530 --> 00:18:33,419 You know, you are definitely one of the pillars of 597 00:18:33,419 --> 00:18:34,470 the startup ecosystem. 598 00:18:34,860 --> 00:18:36,990 You've gotta be saying AI is the greatest thing, so 599 00:18:36,990 --> 00:18:40,020 many opportunities, but if you're watching all of these 600 00:18:40,020 --> 00:18:43,470 other pillars fall, there's gotta be a part of you going. 601 00:18:44,175 --> 00:18:45,435 Well, where's my capital go? 602 00:18:45,435 --> 00:18:45,945 Exactly. 603 00:18:46,065 --> 00:18:46,185 Yeah. 604 00:18:46,245 --> 00:18:49,995 Because my capital actually went to all of those things, will 605 00:18:49,995 --> 00:18:53,115 and Ryan just described, yeah, I put capital in marketing, 606 00:18:53,325 --> 00:18:56,355 I put capital in people, and I put capital in product. 607 00:18:56,775 --> 00:18:59,385 If those things don't make sense anymore. 608 00:18:59,860 --> 00:19:01,630 Ah, where does that money go? 609 00:19:01,630 --> 00:19:02,260 Exactly? 610 00:19:02,410 --> 00:19:03,100 Data centers. 611 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:04,330 Yeah, exactly. 612 00:19:04,510 --> 00:19:05,050 Basically, yeah. 613 00:19:05,050 --> 00:19:06,310 It goes to compute, right? 614 00:19:06,310 --> 00:19:06,755 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, 615 00:19:06,820 --> 00:19:07,120 yeah. 616 00:19:07,300 --> 00:19:09,310 When talent shifts from headcount to headless 617 00:19:09,310 --> 00:19:13,240 product shifts from apps to prompts and agents, and 618 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,210 distribution goes from search to synthetic answers, it's 619 00:19:16,210 --> 00:19:19,090 like, what are you putting your money into at that point? 620 00:19:19,090 --> 00:19:20,290 That's a problem truly. 621 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,690 Now, again, you can, you can look on the other 622 00:19:22,690 --> 00:19:23,380 side of it and say. 623 00:19:23,955 --> 00:19:24,795 Not a problem for me. 624 00:19:24,795 --> 00:19:25,395 I'm a founder. 625 00:19:25,395 --> 00:19:26,835 I didn't wanna deal with those guys anyway. 626 00:19:26,835 --> 00:19:28,545 And you would be correct, right? 627 00:19:28,635 --> 00:19:29,925 Yes, you would be correct. 628 00:19:30,135 --> 00:19:30,435 Right? 629 00:19:30,465 --> 00:19:30,975 Amen. 630 00:19:31,455 --> 00:19:36,075 However, that is a fundamental institution within the startup 631 00:19:36,075 --> 00:19:38,775 ecosystem that is losing a home. 632 00:19:39,405 --> 00:19:42,375 Now, I'm sure you have no lack of, of investors 633 00:19:42,375 --> 00:19:42,975 that will say that is a. 634 00:19:43,725 --> 00:19:46,695 Totally untrue, and here's a whole thesis where so many 635 00:19:46,695 --> 00:19:49,995 industries will built that will require so much capital, yada, 636 00:19:49,995 --> 00:19:53,445 yada, believe some of that, I believe, yes, there are some 637 00:19:53,445 --> 00:19:55,784 foundational layers that you're seeing right now that will 638 00:19:55,965 --> 00:19:59,655 require a voluminous amount of capital, but if every one 639 00:19:59,655 --> 00:20:01,245 of those foundational pillars. 640 00:20:01,965 --> 00:20:06,855 Is all being consumed at a record rate, and by way 641 00:20:06,855 --> 00:20:09,045 of that, their efficiency is taking away cost. 642 00:20:09,765 --> 00:20:14,025 I have a hard time believing that the need for capital is 643 00:20:14,025 --> 00:20:17,595 going to become exponential or more so anytime soon. 644 00:20:17,955 --> 00:20:18,585 Anytime soon 645 00:20:18,915 --> 00:20:23,655 is all of the costs and all of the the traditional cost-based 646 00:20:23,655 --> 00:20:25,755 barriers to starting a startup. 647 00:20:26,460 --> 00:20:29,100 Reduced geometrically exponentially. 648 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,919 The idea that cash still needs to be part of the 649 00:20:31,919 --> 00:20:34,320 picture becomes a lot harder unless we're just 650 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,629 gonna start compensating founders for taking risks. 651 00:20:36,659 --> 00:20:36,899 Right. 652 00:20:36,899 --> 00:20:38,340 Which I'd be okay with that. 653 00:20:38,429 --> 00:20:38,639 Right. 654 00:20:39,780 --> 00:20:41,580 It's this weird thing because it's almost 655 00:20:41,580 --> 00:20:42,345 like if, if you're a vc. 656 00:20:43,330 --> 00:20:46,090 And you're looking at four year projections and more 657 00:20:46,090 --> 00:20:48,970 so the, uh, use of funds that people are raising for. 658 00:20:49,450 --> 00:20:52,120 And obviously raise amounts have gone up geometrically. 659 00:20:52,120 --> 00:20:53,800 I mean, we are in the business of helping people 660 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:54,640 raise, so we see it. 661 00:20:55,090 --> 00:20:56,860 Uh, and you're looking at use of funds. 662 00:20:57,220 --> 00:20:58,940 There's gotta be a version of you that's like. 663 00:20:59,835 --> 00:21:00,885 I wanna give more. 664 00:21:00,885 --> 00:21:02,325 I wanna write bigger checks because that's 665 00:21:02,325 --> 00:21:03,435 how I raise bigger funds. 666 00:21:03,675 --> 00:21:06,465 But at the same time, like, have you not seen what's 667 00:21:06,465 --> 00:21:07,335 going on in the world? 668 00:21:07,335 --> 00:21:07,345 No. 669 00:21:08,385 --> 00:21:08,395 Yeah. 670 00:21:08,475 --> 00:21:08,535 Yeah. 671 00:21:08,535 --> 00:21:10,005 What are you going to spend it on? 672 00:21:10,245 --> 00:21:10,455 Yeah. 673 00:21:10,455 --> 00:21:12,705 Like I loved when you hired 400 engineers. 674 00:21:12,705 --> 00:21:14,865 That worked great for me as an investor. 675 00:21:14,865 --> 00:21:14,925 Yeah. 676 00:21:15,255 --> 00:21:16,515 Because you needed lots of me. 677 00:21:16,785 --> 00:21:17,175 Right. 678 00:21:17,355 --> 00:21:20,325 But if you needed 400 engineers now to do whatever 679 00:21:20,325 --> 00:21:22,005 the hell it is you're doing, unless you're building 680 00:21:22,005 --> 00:21:23,265 some foundational layer. 681 00:21:23,655 --> 00:21:24,405 I'm shocked. 682 00:21:24,735 --> 00:21:25,365 Play that out for a second. 683 00:21:25,365 --> 00:21:25,575 Will. 684 00:21:25,575 --> 00:21:27,705 And you're, and you're far more versed in this space than I am. 685 00:21:27,915 --> 00:21:29,085 'cause what we saw, right? 686 00:21:29,085 --> 00:21:31,275 It's, it's not like now that rounds are exponentially 687 00:21:31,275 --> 00:21:32,235 larger and they are. 688 00:21:32,235 --> 00:21:32,475 Right. 689 00:21:32,475 --> 00:21:32,565 Yeah. 690 00:21:32,570 --> 00:21:32,580 Yeah. 691 00:21:32,585 --> 00:21:34,965 When, when rounds became exponentially larger, it's 692 00:21:34,965 --> 00:21:37,755 not like the investors started taking exponentially 693 00:21:37,755 --> 00:21:38,865 more of the cap table. 694 00:21:38,865 --> 00:21:39,045 Right. 695 00:21:39,045 --> 00:21:40,545 They're taking the same chunk of the cap table. 696 00:21:40,545 --> 00:21:40,605 Yeah. 697 00:21:40,605 --> 00:21:41,715 Rounds just got more expensive. 698 00:21:41,715 --> 00:21:43,545 Overall valuations were, were higher. 699 00:21:43,545 --> 00:21:44,300 All this was higher. 700 00:21:44,775 --> 00:21:48,645 Now, I guess theoretically the final outcomes maybe became. 701 00:21:49,290 --> 00:21:52,200 Geometrically larger, uh, in some cases, maybe 702 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,140 exponentially larger, but the odds didn't change any, right? 703 00:21:55,140 --> 00:21:56,670 It's not like because we're pouring more money into these 704 00:21:56,670 --> 00:21:58,410 companies, they're more, more sure of succeeding. 705 00:21:58,410 --> 00:22:00,510 So did anything actually change? 706 00:22:00,510 --> 00:22:02,910 And so it's theoretically, could it just, could we just see a 707 00:22:02,910 --> 00:22:05,880 regression to the mean, where the rounds become much smaller? 708 00:22:06,030 --> 00:22:07,620 But so did the initial valuations. 709 00:22:08,024 --> 00:22:10,245 Which would actually make all the sense in the world because 710 00:22:10,544 --> 00:22:13,215 the risk profile is gonna go up significantly more because 711 00:22:13,215 --> 00:22:15,314 this app you're building, this software, this company, 712 00:22:15,314 --> 00:22:18,615 this whatever, could be wiped out by something else really, 713 00:22:18,615 --> 00:22:20,625 really quickly because that time to deploy, time to build 714 00:22:20,685 --> 00:22:22,514 all those things we just talked about are so much faster. 715 00:22:22,875 --> 00:22:26,205 So theoretically, that is one place within startup dom 716 00:22:26,205 --> 00:22:27,135 that I could actually see. 717 00:22:27,719 --> 00:22:28,740 Normalizing. 718 00:22:28,919 --> 00:22:30,600 Yeah, I was gonna say, I, I definitely see a 719 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:31,649 rubber band on that one. 720 00:22:31,649 --> 00:22:31,709 Yeah. 721 00:22:31,830 --> 00:22:35,699 And the reason being is because when AI first comes out and 722 00:22:35,699 --> 00:22:38,760 everyone's like, oh, we're gonna do this, but with ai, and we 723 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,820 say this to, to startups all the time, so founders, listen. 724 00:22:41,939 --> 00:22:44,729 If you're, you know, doing a SF, we say, yes, that's true. 725 00:22:44,729 --> 00:22:47,314 Right now you're doing law something. 726 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:48,780 But with ai, cool. 727 00:22:48,810 --> 00:22:50,729 Yes, absolutely makes a ton of sense. 728 00:22:50,969 --> 00:22:54,719 You do understand that within 24 months, that's how 729 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:56,280 everyone will be doing law. 730 00:22:56,925 --> 00:22:57,015 Yeah. 731 00:22:57,015 --> 00:22:59,415 The fact that you're doing it, it's exactly like saying, but 732 00:22:59,415 --> 00:23:00,795 we'll be selling books online. 733 00:23:01,035 --> 00:23:01,515 Yes. 734 00:23:01,665 --> 00:23:03,375 But eventually everyone looks how you'll sell 735 00:23:03,375 --> 00:23:03,795 books. 736 00:23:03,795 --> 00:23:03,835 Course you sell books. 737 00:23:03,885 --> 00:23:04,785 They will be online. 738 00:23:04,845 --> 00:23:05,595 Yeah, exactly. 739 00:23:05,595 --> 00:23:05,865 Right? 740 00:23:05,925 --> 00:23:06,015 Yeah. 741 00:23:06,075 --> 00:23:07,605 You have to be, you have to be able, you have 742 00:23:07,605 --> 00:23:08,595 to take it beyond that. 743 00:23:08,895 --> 00:23:11,565 And man, that's the thing that I think is so fascinating right 744 00:23:11,565 --> 00:23:14,955 now is, is, and it's not just that AI as a whole becomes 745 00:23:14,955 --> 00:23:18,615 table stakes, but so many things that were problematic 746 00:23:18,615 --> 00:23:21,255 or challenging from a cost or complexity standpoint, 747 00:23:21,615 --> 00:23:24,045 they're becoming table stakes, right, left and right. 748 00:23:24,715 --> 00:23:27,235 Left and right, and so I think that. 749 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,960 Just, again, it just makes it so hard to see around the corner. 750 00:23:31,290 --> 00:23:34,590 We're moving so fast and, and the corner's so sharp at 751 00:23:34,590 --> 00:23:36,510 this point, folding back to predicting the future now, but 752 00:23:36,510 --> 00:23:38,100 it's just, it's so complex. 753 00:23:38,310 --> 00:23:41,820 Well, so if you and I build AI TurboTax and we're, we're 754 00:23:41,820 --> 00:23:43,680 gonna say we're coming after Intuit, we're gonna take their 755 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,800 market share, et cetera, then, then, right now, in this very 756 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,970 moment, in 2026, we by all means, have justified the upside 757 00:23:50,970 --> 00:23:52,320 potential of our valuation. 758 00:23:52,649 --> 00:23:52,740 Yep. 759 00:23:52,740 --> 00:23:54,419 What I'm saying, the rubber band happens. 760 00:23:54,735 --> 00:23:57,105 When you fast forward to 27, 28. 761 00:23:57,165 --> 00:23:57,520 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 762 00:23:57,585 --> 00:24:01,125 When everyone can do what we're doing in our defensibility 763 00:24:01,125 --> 00:24:04,125 to have taken, including into it, by the way, can do that. 764 00:24:04,215 --> 00:24:06,044 How do we maintain our defensibility? 765 00:24:06,044 --> 00:24:08,985 How we do we maintain our moat when the moat has 766 00:24:08,985 --> 00:24:09,945 lowered for everybody. 767 00:24:10,470 --> 00:24:12,120 That's where it gets way more interesting. 768 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:12,870 That's exactly it. 769 00:24:12,870 --> 00:24:15,630 You know, right now AI might be a competitive advantage 770 00:24:15,630 --> 00:24:17,580 for some companies that are just moving a little faster 771 00:24:17,580 --> 00:24:18,720 and not, not even a lot. 772 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:19,290 You bet. 773 00:24:19,350 --> 00:24:20,670 But it compresses build time. 774 00:24:20,670 --> 00:24:20,940 Right. 775 00:24:21,210 --> 00:24:23,250 But it shrinks moats, or in some cases it's gonna 776 00:24:23,250 --> 00:24:24,510 completely dry them up. 777 00:24:24,780 --> 00:24:25,140 Right. 778 00:24:25,745 --> 00:24:28,445 Turns products into features like full on products. 779 00:24:28,445 --> 00:24:31,175 Like you think about that, like the fact that TurboTax 780 00:24:31,205 --> 00:24:33,065 is a product, right? 781 00:24:33,065 --> 00:24:35,525 That may not even be a product category anymore. 782 00:24:35,525 --> 00:24:38,765 That might just be part of personal financial suite and 783 00:24:38,765 --> 00:24:40,775 just every literal, literally everything happens there. 784 00:24:40,775 --> 00:24:43,085 Your banking's there, your taxations there, your savings 785 00:24:43,085 --> 00:24:44,375 there, your investments, right? 786 00:24:44,405 --> 00:24:47,855 Because we're seeing products getting turned 787 00:24:47,855 --> 00:24:50,435 into features at at machine speed at this point, right? 788 00:24:50,435 --> 00:24:50,705 Right. 789 00:24:50,705 --> 00:24:52,235 Which is crazy. 790 00:24:52,575 --> 00:24:53,115 I agree. 791 00:24:53,145 --> 00:24:54,135 Now, here's what happens. 792 00:24:54,405 --> 00:24:57,105 All of these things, all of these pillars, all of these 793 00:24:57,105 --> 00:25:00,945 changes, as they start to drop, it starts to compound 794 00:25:00,945 --> 00:25:04,605 anxiety and watch what happens. 795 00:25:04,875 --> 00:25:07,515 Right now we are in this, oh my God, this, this 796 00:25:07,515 --> 00:25:08,775 party's gonna be amazing. 797 00:25:09,045 --> 00:25:10,695 The hangover hasn't happened yet. 798 00:25:11,370 --> 00:25:11,550 Right 799 00:25:11,730 --> 00:25:12,090 Ryan? 800 00:25:12,090 --> 00:25:15,360 I think you're starting to see the first bits of it. 801 00:25:15,660 --> 00:25:16,530 It was, I'm feeling it. 802 00:25:16,530 --> 00:25:17,130 Oh my God. 803 00:25:17,130 --> 00:25:19,290 I can create more content on social and then you're 804 00:25:19,290 --> 00:25:19,800 like, wait a minute. 805 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:20,130 Hold on. 806 00:25:20,220 --> 00:25:21,030 So can everybody else. 807 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:21,750 Oh my God. 808 00:25:21,750 --> 00:25:25,320 I can do this thing in, um, uh, there's one new AI app. 809 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:25,710 Yes. 810 00:25:25,710 --> 00:25:28,500 So can everybody else, I think what will start 811 00:25:28,500 --> 00:25:31,530 to happen is we'll start to see this compounding 812 00:25:31,530 --> 00:25:34,530 anxiety where founders start to go, wait a minute, 813 00:25:34,890 --> 00:25:36,180 now everybody can do this. 814 00:25:36,390 --> 00:25:37,110 That's a problem. 815 00:25:37,544 --> 00:25:37,935 Right. 816 00:25:38,294 --> 00:25:40,514 And that's when things start to get really 817 00:25:40,514 --> 00:25:43,815 interesting when everybody has the machine gun, right? 818 00:25:44,385 --> 00:25:47,955 Like war becomes a lot more complex and, and, and I think 819 00:25:48,165 --> 00:25:49,455 that's where we're headed next. 820 00:25:49,485 --> 00:25:51,554 I feel like we're at that point in the arms race where 821 00:25:51,554 --> 00:25:52,465 everybody looks around and goes. 822 00:25:53,340 --> 00:25:54,899 Shit, this isn't gonna work. 823 00:25:55,169 --> 00:25:56,010 Yeah, exactly. 824 00:25:56,129 --> 00:25:56,610 Exactly. 825 00:25:56,639 --> 00:25:58,830 We're all armed to the teeth, which just means 826 00:25:59,190 --> 00:26:01,950 we're all gonna face a lot of pain because of this. 827 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,710 Yeah, no, I, I think the compounding anxiety thing is, 828 00:26:04,710 --> 00:26:07,230 is huge right now, and I think there's still a lot of people 829 00:26:07,230 --> 00:26:08,430 looking around for certainty. 830 00:26:09,060 --> 00:26:11,760 Which look never really been part of the startup space. 831 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:11,940 Right? 832 00:26:11,940 --> 00:26:13,560 Even if you thought that it was there, there are a few 833 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,020 things that are certain, none of them are fun, but I think 834 00:26:16,020 --> 00:26:18,179 at this point we have to give up on certainty a little bit 835 00:26:18,179 --> 00:26:20,879 and, and what I'm looking for, instead of certainty, I'm saying 836 00:26:20,879 --> 00:26:22,919 what I need is cadence, right? 837 00:26:22,919 --> 00:26:23,639 I need cadence. 838 00:26:23,639 --> 00:26:23,820 What does 839 00:26:23,820 --> 00:26:24,389 that look like for you? 840 00:26:24,824 --> 00:26:27,195 It's essentially like decision making frameworks. 841 00:26:27,195 --> 00:26:29,985 It's, it's how we're deciding what to keep, what to kill, 842 00:26:29,985 --> 00:26:33,014 and getting into, you know, like going from quarterly 843 00:26:33,014 --> 00:26:36,885 strategies to, to monthly strategy and to weekly tactics. 844 00:26:36,885 --> 00:26:38,655 You know, you and I talked to this before on the podcast. 845 00:26:38,655 --> 00:26:41,475 We, we plan in, in, in week long sprints, right? 846 00:26:41,475 --> 00:26:41,625 Yeah. 847 00:26:41,685 --> 00:26:45,284 You and I down manages their time on, on weekly schedules, 848 00:26:45,584 --> 00:26:46,905 um, which helps, right? 849 00:26:46,905 --> 00:26:50,024 And so having that cadence and basically going back to 850 00:26:50,024 --> 00:26:52,455 what I said before around the human component of, 851 00:26:52,455 --> 00:26:53,895 of swap ability, right? 852 00:26:53,895 --> 00:26:54,284 Really. 853 00:26:54,340 --> 00:26:56,980 All of my plans are modular and component based. 854 00:26:56,980 --> 00:26:57,459 At this point. 855 00:26:57,459 --> 00:27:00,070 They have to be, because I need that cadence. 856 00:27:00,070 --> 00:27:02,770 I need to have that cadence in place so that if something 857 00:27:02,770 --> 00:27:05,980 does need to swap, I'm not starting again from Fresh plan. 858 00:27:05,980 --> 00:27:06,730 It's okay. 859 00:27:07,030 --> 00:27:09,669 The plan was go get traffic for this. 860 00:27:09,970 --> 00:27:12,370 This is still valid, this still needs traffic. 861 00:27:12,370 --> 00:27:14,379 But that thing we were gonna use to go get traffic isn't. 862 00:27:14,500 --> 00:27:16,030 Um, so we don't need to start from zero, but we 863 00:27:16,030 --> 00:27:17,830 have to have something else that we can plug in there. 864 00:27:18,070 --> 00:27:18,340 Right? 865 00:27:18,345 --> 00:27:18,425 Really? 866 00:27:19,090 --> 00:27:19,510 Quickly. 867 00:27:19,510 --> 00:27:22,930 So I can't be certain that a, that a quarterly plan around, 868 00:27:22,990 --> 00:27:25,330 uh, social media traffic acquisition is gonna work. 869 00:27:25,630 --> 00:27:28,420 So I need a cadence of an operating cadence that 870 00:27:28,420 --> 00:27:30,850 allows me to, to quickly act on those changes. 871 00:27:31,425 --> 00:27:33,465 I think it's interesting though because we get all of 872 00:27:33,465 --> 00:27:36,645 these different folks that are part of the ecosystem 873 00:27:36,764 --> 00:27:38,175 with a very uncertain future. 874 00:27:38,175 --> 00:27:40,485 At the same time, you know, we talked about this a moment ago 875 00:27:40,485 --> 00:27:42,795 with these pillars falling, and that's why we opened up 876 00:27:42,795 --> 00:27:45,855 the conversation there because again, if you're an investor, 877 00:27:45,855 --> 00:27:48,375 and investor seem to be very cocky about the future, but 878 00:27:48,375 --> 00:27:50,715 there's no version where you're sitting there going, oh, this 879 00:27:50,715 --> 00:27:51,705 is all gonna work out great. 880 00:27:52,380 --> 00:27:55,620 Ryan, if you and I had a fund right now, yes, there 881 00:27:55,620 --> 00:27:57,900 are so many industries ripe for the picking, right? 882 00:27:57,900 --> 00:28:00,600 If we can invest in the person who takes over TurboTax, 883 00:28:00,930 --> 00:28:01,830 we're gonna do great. 884 00:28:02,700 --> 00:28:04,950 Our concern would be, and then what? 885 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:06,570 What happens after that? 886 00:28:07,635 --> 00:28:09,255 Like how do they stay relevant? 887 00:28:09,285 --> 00:28:10,485 How do they stay on top? 888 00:28:10,935 --> 00:28:12,375 And, and we'll be good for a minute. 889 00:28:12,735 --> 00:28:14,985 The second part is we're in the business of 890 00:28:14,985 --> 00:28:16,335 deploying lots of capital. 891 00:28:16,365 --> 00:28:17,985 Like that's specifically what we do. 892 00:28:18,285 --> 00:28:20,715 Capital efficiency actually isn't necessarily 893 00:28:20,715 --> 00:28:21,945 our friend, right? 894 00:28:21,945 --> 00:28:24,735 When, when startups needed to hire 400 engineers to be 895 00:28:24,735 --> 00:28:27,195 competitive, that actually kind of worked for us, right? 896 00:28:27,555 --> 00:28:27,705 Yep. 897 00:28:28,245 --> 00:28:29,445 They needed a lot of us, right? 898 00:28:30,015 --> 00:28:32,235 The other compounding anxiety, and again, these are all the 899 00:28:32,235 --> 00:28:34,935 players in the same space at the same time, kind of 900 00:28:34,935 --> 00:28:35,865 freaking out a little bit. 901 00:28:36,620 --> 00:28:38,900 If you were a developer right now, right? 902 00:28:38,990 --> 00:28:45,170 Who was the holy grail most protected made man there was in 903 00:28:45,170 --> 00:28:46,460 the startup ecosystem, right? 904 00:28:46,850 --> 00:28:48,980 The rockstar developer, right? 905 00:28:48,980 --> 00:28:50,480 Like you were literally, literally gave the, the 906 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:51,770 rockstar developer, okay. 907 00:28:51,770 --> 00:28:52,635 That you had that level of cred. 908 00:28:53,700 --> 00:28:57,150 You're worried about your job and how could you not be? 909 00:28:57,330 --> 00:28:57,540 Right. 910 00:28:57,540 --> 00:29:01,350 If, if that was my trade, if I was specifically writing code 911 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,260 and I'm sitting in front of all these tools and be like, 912 00:29:04,260 --> 00:29:06,690 dude, that's literally, you know, I'll give you a perfect 913 00:29:06,690 --> 00:29:09,540 example because I actually live this, I live this in. 914 00:29:10,230 --> 00:29:11,280 Ryan, you'll appreciate this. 915 00:29:11,580 --> 00:29:16,080 In 1999, I was you running a large web design firm? 916 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:16,410 Yep. 917 00:29:16,530 --> 00:29:19,290 And on average we were getting paid somewhere around a 918 00:29:19,290 --> 00:29:23,760 million dollars to build what's essentially like a brochure 919 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:25,320 website for like massive grants. 920 00:29:25,410 --> 00:29:25,560 Yep. 921 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:25,570 Right. 922 00:29:25,570 --> 00:29:25,725 Yep. 923 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:27,630 And you'll, you know where this is going. 924 00:29:27,870 --> 00:29:28,080 In. 925 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,110 One day, one of our, uh, designers comes in and 926 00:29:31,110 --> 00:29:33,570 he's like, Hey, man, I, I stumbled upon this site 927 00:29:33,570 --> 00:29:35,250 called template monster.com. 928 00:29:35,850 --> 00:29:39,690 And uh, these templates are actually really good. 929 00:29:39,690 --> 00:29:41,910 They're like, in some cases better than what we design. 930 00:29:41,970 --> 00:29:42,690 I'm like, yeah. 931 00:29:43,020 --> 00:29:45,300 And he is like, and it's a hundred dollars. 932 00:29:45,660 --> 00:29:46,830 I'm like, a hundred dollars for what? 933 00:29:46,830 --> 00:29:46,860 Uhhuh? 934 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:48,930 He's like, the whole thing. 935 00:29:49,500 --> 00:29:50,310 The whole thing. 936 00:29:50,460 --> 00:29:50,760 Yeah. 937 00:29:51,030 --> 00:29:54,690 Every single PDF or uh, pixel p SD file, you need to do 938 00:29:54,870 --> 00:29:57,000 three is like full HTML and like, you know, at the 939 00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,240 time, JPEGs and whatever, and I'm like, huh. 940 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:01,110 Right. 941 00:30:01,470 --> 00:30:04,380 That's exactly the way I would feel right now if I was 942 00:30:04,380 --> 00:30:07,140 a quarter million or a half million dollar a year developer. 943 00:30:07,740 --> 00:30:07,815 Yeah. 944 00:30:07,815 --> 00:30:10,500 And I sat and saw what Claude did last week 945 00:30:10,950 --> 00:30:12,270 and I'd be like, hmm. 946 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,980 Now granted, I'm not saying there's no value in those folks. 947 00:30:17,220 --> 00:30:20,220 I'm saying you lose the premium, right? 948 00:30:20,225 --> 00:30:22,350 The the premium always comes with the fact that there's 949 00:30:22,350 --> 00:30:23,520 not enough of you, right? 950 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:24,210 It's just that simple. 951 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:25,080 There's not enough of you. 952 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:25,170 Yep. 953 00:30:25,860 --> 00:30:30,030 Or if I just graduated with a CS degree and I'm jumping 954 00:30:30,030 --> 00:30:32,940 in into a market where I was told five seconds ago that 955 00:30:32,940 --> 00:30:36,060 this is where all the jobs are and the people that are 956 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,410 veterans in this space are like, dude, where am I gonna go? 957 00:30:41,385 --> 00:30:42,615 I mean, come on, man. 958 00:30:43,125 --> 00:30:44,385 Doesn't give you warm fuzzies. 959 00:30:44,385 --> 00:30:46,665 No, that's gonna, that's gonna drive serious anxiety. 960 00:30:46,754 --> 00:30:49,064 And I think we're starting to see that some of the 961 00:30:49,064 --> 00:30:51,915 thinking around is already not aging particularly well. 962 00:30:51,915 --> 00:30:54,314 And this thinking's only, you know, maybe nine months old, 963 00:30:54,314 --> 00:30:57,044 which was, okay, look, this isn't gonna take your job, it's 964 00:30:57,044 --> 00:31:00,405 just gonna make you be able to do 10 x more of your job. 965 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:05,130 Maybe true, but it also implies that there's a need for 10 966 00:31:05,130 --> 00:31:08,310 x more of your job times the number of people who also 967 00:31:08,310 --> 00:31:10,830 have your job and the number of people who want your job. 968 00:31:11,850 --> 00:31:12,330 Right. 969 00:31:12,330 --> 00:31:13,230 It doesn't change that. 970 00:31:13,230 --> 00:31:13,410 Right. 971 00:31:13,410 --> 00:31:14,460 Like just because we can, it's musical. 972 00:31:15,795 --> 00:31:18,165 Just because we can write more content doesn't mean like I 973 00:31:18,165 --> 00:31:19,245 can write 10 x more content. 974 00:31:19,485 --> 00:31:19,725 Cool. 975 00:31:19,725 --> 00:31:21,255 Do people have 10 x more time to read? 976 00:31:21,255 --> 00:31:23,235 Because if not, what the hell are we gonna do with all of it? 977 00:31:23,295 --> 00:31:24,435 It's really interesting. 978 00:31:24,435 --> 00:31:27,375 And so what I'm pointing out here, and you know, this lack of 979 00:31:27,375 --> 00:31:31,845 forecastability is coming on top of these pillars are dropping. 980 00:31:32,115 --> 00:31:34,545 The folks that are the cornerstones of this 981 00:31:34,545 --> 00:31:38,535 ecosystem are getting awfully anxious for good reasons. 982 00:31:38,865 --> 00:31:39,075 Yeah. 983 00:31:39,075 --> 00:31:41,745 And I say this, Ryan, because it's, I love doing 984 00:31:41,745 --> 00:31:43,755 episodes where we just talk about how great. 985 00:31:43,879 --> 00:31:45,950 AI is, and I do, I do believe it. 986 00:31:45,950 --> 00:31:47,900 I think that, you know, AI in a whole is phenomenal. 987 00:31:47,900 --> 00:31:47,990 It's 988 00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:48,110 great. 989 00:31:48,260 --> 00:31:48,710 It is. 990 00:31:48,890 --> 00:31:51,890 But I also wanna point out, shit's getting 991 00:31:51,890 --> 00:31:52,879 a little gnarly man. 992 00:31:53,090 --> 00:31:53,360 Right? 993 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:53,810 It is there. 994 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,540 There's some stuff happening behind the scenes that 995 00:31:56,629 --> 00:31:59,510 no one's really talking about, and there's more 996 00:31:59,510 --> 00:32:00,650 of it than people realize. 997 00:32:00,975 --> 00:32:01,395 A lot. 998 00:32:01,544 --> 00:32:03,165 There's a lot more like I just, here. 999 00:32:03,165 --> 00:32:04,185 Here's one, right? 1000 00:32:04,185 --> 00:32:06,074 I was talking to a group of other founders the 1001 00:32:06,074 --> 00:32:06,735 other day about this. 1002 00:32:07,485 --> 00:32:12,225 When founders, teams, investors, vendors altogether 1003 00:32:12,615 --> 00:32:17,445 can no longer price, risk, commitment melts, man, right? 1004 00:32:17,715 --> 00:32:19,514 Again, it's that compounding anxiety. 1005 00:32:19,514 --> 00:32:22,995 Everybody has that commitment and nobody wants to be the 1006 00:32:22,995 --> 00:32:24,824 sucker who bets on a product. 1007 00:32:25,185 --> 00:32:26,955 That becomes a frigging plugin. 1008 00:32:27,345 --> 00:32:27,765 Right. 1009 00:32:27,825 --> 00:32:32,085 And so one of the, the concerns then is do we actually start 1010 00:32:32,085 --> 00:32:37,575 to see a slowdown in the rate of like overall progress and 1011 00:32:37,575 --> 00:32:38,895 thinking and development, right? 1012 00:32:39,135 --> 00:32:41,325 The thing we haven't seen yet is that AI's not out there just 1013 00:32:41,325 --> 00:32:43,485 going, well, I just figured out this problem that people have. 1014 00:32:43,485 --> 00:32:44,805 I'm gonna go solve it all by myself. 1015 00:32:44,805 --> 00:32:46,395 Maybe it will get there, right? 1016 00:32:46,575 --> 00:32:47,175 Not yet. 1017 00:32:47,445 --> 00:32:47,655 Right. 1018 00:32:48,145 --> 00:32:50,605 But it's still people deciding and people chasing 1019 00:32:50,605 --> 00:32:52,525 real problems and people having those problems. 1020 00:32:52,975 --> 00:32:55,465 And so I think that that's, it's, it's a super interesting 1021 00:32:55,465 --> 00:32:57,385 thing to think about is that as you start to take 1022 00:32:57,385 --> 00:33:00,715 away the incentives, bad things can start to happen. 1023 00:33:00,715 --> 00:33:02,755 We saw this, here's a parallel. 1024 00:33:03,025 --> 00:33:04,375 I don't remember the timing on this. 1025 00:33:04,375 --> 00:33:07,285 I probably used to, but at the point which we started 1026 00:33:07,285 --> 00:33:10,255 to take away financial incentive from teachers. 1027 00:33:10,995 --> 00:33:13,665 The US educational system started to decline 1028 00:33:13,665 --> 00:33:15,495 very, very seriously. 1029 00:33:15,675 --> 00:33:16,065 Right? 1030 00:33:16,605 --> 00:33:19,215 And we started to do the same thing within medicine 1031 00:33:19,215 --> 00:33:22,125 and medical outcomes started to to decline. 1032 00:33:22,185 --> 00:33:26,295 Seriously, we take away the financial incentive from from 1033 00:33:26,295 --> 00:33:27,855 innovators and technologists. 1034 00:33:28,575 --> 00:33:29,565 What happens, right? 1035 00:33:29,565 --> 00:33:32,205 We'll see the same thing play out again, and I'm afraid 1036 00:33:32,205 --> 00:33:33,795 that's what we're running towards at this point. 1037 00:33:34,155 --> 00:33:36,435 Here's what I'll say though, and you touched on this. 1038 00:33:37,095 --> 00:33:40,965 It turns out that of all the people that are kind of, you 1039 00:33:40,965 --> 00:33:44,504 know, had this compounding anxiety, the one group that 1040 00:33:44,504 --> 00:33:48,225 happens to be very well suited to all of this Oh yeah. 1041 00:33:48,225 --> 00:33:51,855 Are founders, like of all the people that were like 1042 00:33:51,855 --> 00:33:54,705 built for risk, that were built for chaos, that were 1043 00:33:54,705 --> 00:33:58,365 quite like specifically built to like constantly look for 1044 00:33:58,365 --> 00:34:01,064 problems and constantly figure out how to tear shit up. 1045 00:34:01,514 --> 00:34:03,074 Are founders now? 1046 00:34:03,074 --> 00:34:03,084 Yeah. 1047 00:34:03,629 --> 00:34:06,540 Granted, those founders, they'd need help from all those people, 1048 00:34:06,540 --> 00:34:07,620 and that's always been the way. 1049 00:34:08,100 --> 00:34:10,980 But I would argue, and I find this fascinating, that if 1050 00:34:10,980 --> 00:34:15,239 there's ever a time for the people who had it in them, who 1051 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,060 basically starve for chaos. 1052 00:34:18,389 --> 00:34:18,570 Yeah, 1053 00:34:18,570 --> 00:34:19,590 this is your moment, man. 1054 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:21,750 If you are built like that. 1055 00:34:22,514 --> 00:34:24,345 I think I mentioned this once, once long ago. 1056 00:34:24,555 --> 00:34:26,685 There was one of the greatest, uh, commercials I've ever 1057 00:34:26,685 --> 00:34:29,865 seen, and it was for the Marines and, and it showed 1058 00:34:29,865 --> 00:34:31,365 this huge explosion, right? 1059 00:34:31,455 --> 00:34:33,165 And all this smoke and dust, and it showed all 1060 00:34:33,165 --> 00:34:35,745 these people running away, and then it just panned 1061 00:34:35,745 --> 00:34:37,695 in on this one guy's face. 1062 00:34:37,935 --> 00:34:39,705 And he looked at the camera and then he looked at the 1063 00:34:39,705 --> 00:34:42,284 smoke and he just started running directly to it. 1064 00:34:42,675 --> 00:34:44,025 And they basically said. 1065 00:34:44,284 --> 00:34:46,984 For the people who run toward not fear or something like that. 1066 00:34:47,044 --> 00:34:48,274 And it said US Marines. 1067 00:34:48,364 --> 00:34:48,665 Right. 1068 00:34:48,995 --> 00:34:51,875 And I was like, that's the most badass commercial 1069 00:34:51,875 --> 00:34:53,014 I've ever seen in my life. 1070 00:34:53,404 --> 00:34:55,444 That's kind of what I picture right here. 1071 00:34:55,804 --> 00:34:56,944 Feels like where we're at right now. 1072 00:34:57,214 --> 00:34:57,665 Yeah. 1073 00:34:57,665 --> 00:35:00,299 And look to, to your point, like this is what we're here for. 1074 00:35:01,410 --> 00:35:02,610 We're here to solve problems. 1075 00:35:02,610 --> 00:35:05,010 And if what we're saying is that, wow, this is taking 1076 00:35:05,010 --> 00:35:07,080 away our ability to solve them like we did, it's 1077 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,480 gonna create a whole bunch of new problems, a whole 1078 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:10,200 bunch of new problems 1079 00:35:10,230 --> 00:35:14,460 like unemployment, like income, like you name it. 1080 00:35:14,490 --> 00:35:17,190 Like there's gonna be all kinds of brand new problems that 1081 00:35:17,190 --> 00:35:19,530 are created, that you're gonna need solutions at some point. 1082 00:35:19,830 --> 00:35:22,650 And so I think that's, that's part of this is 1083 00:35:22,980 --> 00:35:25,740 if I'm trying to use a crystal ball at this point. 1084 00:35:26,255 --> 00:35:29,255 I'm not looking at, okay, how do we keep doing exactly what we're 1085 00:35:29,255 --> 00:35:31,055 doing in the context of ai? 1086 00:35:31,055 --> 00:35:32,795 Like with, with all the changes that AI require, I'm like, 1087 00:35:32,795 --> 00:35:35,585 okay, what happens when we stop doing all this stuff? 1088 00:35:35,615 --> 00:35:35,705 Yep. 1089 00:35:35,705 --> 00:35:35,885 Right? 1090 00:35:35,885 --> 00:35:37,265 What does that look like? 1091 00:35:37,715 --> 00:35:38,075 Right. 1092 00:35:38,075 --> 00:35:40,415 Let's solve those problems because they're coming. 1093 00:35:40,445 --> 00:35:43,865 I can't predict exactly how they arrive or why, or when. 1094 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,800 You can sort of see the writing on the wall at this point. 1095 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,650 There's going to be some really big ass problems. 1096 00:35:49,890 --> 00:35:52,380 And to your point, that's what we're here for. 1097 00:35:52,650 --> 00:35:53,190 This is what we do. 1098 00:35:53,250 --> 00:35:54,270 We're in the problem business. 1099 00:35:54,420 --> 00:35:57,240 So if you look around and take a look, reverse everything we 1100 00:35:57,240 --> 00:35:58,650 just said on this show, right? 1101 00:35:58,770 --> 00:35:58,860 Yeah. 1102 00:35:58,890 --> 00:36:00,065 Reverse that and say, Hey, if. 1103 00:36:00,455 --> 00:36:01,745 Investors are gonna have problems. 1104 00:36:01,895 --> 00:36:04,234 Dude, let's think about coming in and becoming an investor that 1105 00:36:04,234 --> 00:36:05,825 that's capital efficient, right? 1106 00:36:05,884 --> 00:36:06,065 Yeah. 1107 00:36:06,095 --> 00:36:07,325 People are gonna have problems being able 1108 00:36:07,325 --> 00:36:08,404 to, to find customers. 1109 00:36:08,404 --> 00:36:09,605 You know, marketing's gonna change. 1110 00:36:09,725 --> 00:36:11,944 Let's become a new type of agency that figures out 1111 00:36:11,944 --> 00:36:14,585 how to get people in this, this new category, right? 1112 00:36:14,765 --> 00:36:16,535 People are gonna have problem finding employment. 1113 00:36:16,654 --> 00:36:18,785 Let's become a new type of recruiter that recruits 1114 00:36:18,785 --> 00:36:20,134 like in that business. 1115 00:36:20,315 --> 00:36:23,165 In every one of these situations, when things 1116 00:36:23,165 --> 00:36:26,194 get upended, there are more problems, and we are 1117 00:36:26,194 --> 00:36:27,995 in the problem business. 1118 00:36:28,460 --> 00:36:31,190 Like that is what we actually specialize in. 1119 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,340 So when I'm saying that there's a lack of forecastability, 1120 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,190 there is, there is a tremendous lack of forecastability. 1121 00:36:37,220 --> 00:36:37,520 Right? 1122 00:36:37,910 --> 00:36:41,600 But with that, it just so happens that the only people 1123 00:36:41,870 --> 00:36:45,350 that are actually built in, suited for this massive bit 1124 00:36:45,350 --> 00:36:47,509 of compounding chaos are us. 1125 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:47,690 Right? 1126 00:36:48,410 --> 00:36:50,540 Like, and we can look at this like, oh shit, 1127 00:36:50,540 --> 00:36:51,830 this is hard to forecast. 1128 00:36:52,130 --> 00:36:53,300 Or we can look at this and go. 1129 00:36:53,865 --> 00:36:54,675 Dude, it's party time. 1130 00:36:54,945 --> 00:36:55,005 Yeah. 1131 00:36:55,065 --> 00:36:57,495 I'm running straight toward this thing and it's not gonna 1132 00:36:57,495 --> 00:37:00,195 be easy and it's gonna be kinda weird, but this is what I'm 1133 00:37:00,195 --> 00:37:03,285 built for and this is what I'm gonna focus all of my time and 1134 00:37:03,285 --> 00:37:05,565 energy toward, and I'm gonna run toward this problem while 1135 00:37:05,565 --> 00:37:06,285 everybody's running away. 1136 00:37:06,705 --> 00:37:08,925 I'm gonna run toward it and I'm gonna go build shit. 1137 00:37:08,985 --> 00:37:10,095 In the hardest time ever. 1138 00:37:10,095 --> 00:37:11,565 I'm gonna build the biggest thing I've ever 1139 00:37:11,565 --> 00:37:12,855 done in my entire life. 1140 00:37:13,770 --> 00:37:15,629 Overthinking your startup because you're going it alone. 1141 00:37:16,020 --> 00:37:18,899 You don't have to, and honestly, you shouldn't because instead, 1142 00:37:18,930 --> 00:37:22,020 you can learn directly from peers who've been in your shoes. 1143 00:37:22,109 --> 00:37:24,450 Connect with bootstrap founders and the advisors 1144 00:37:24,450 --> 00:37:26,879 helping them win in the startups.com community. 1145 00:37:27,029 --> 00:37:31,680 Check out the startups.com community@www.startups.com 1146 00:37:31,770 --> 00:37:32,700 to see if it's for you. 1147 00:37:32,910 --> 00:37:33,990 Could be just the thing you need. 1148 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:35,190 I hope to see you inside.