GLED009 - Tuesday Central Bank Analysis

September 9, 2025: Tuesday Intelligence Brief - Fed 89% probability 25bp cut September 16-17, ECB hold 2.0% with 1% cut probability, global CRE $6.22T valued 2025 growing to $8.29T by 2030, CMBS issuance $59.55B H1 (highest since 2007), SASB deals 75% of issuance.

Show Notes

Tuesday morning, September 9th, and while your competition analyzes yesterday's news, we're delivering the current global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for today's advantage. **Tuesday Central Bank Positioning:** - Fed September 16-17 FOMC meeting with 89% probability 25bp cut after weak jobs data - ECB September 11 meeting expected hold at 2.0% deposit rate with only 1% cut probability - BOJ maintaining pause due to political transition following PM Ishiba resignation - Central bank divergence creating Tuesday arbitrage opportunities for institutional capital **Global Investment Intelligence:** - Global CRE market valued $6.22T in 2025, projected $8.29T by 2030 (5.91% CAGR) - Investment turnover projected 27% increase to $952B in 2025 - Private-label CMBS issuance surged 35% H1 2025 to $59.55B (highest since 2007) - Institutional investors re-engaging with market share at highest level since 2021 **Tuesday Refinancing Update:** - SASB deals accounting for 75% of all CMBS issuance in early 2025 - Delinquency rates 7.5% July for KBRA-rated private-label CMBS loans - Office sector remains primary driver of distress though bottoming-out phase may be near - 2025 could see nearly $120B CMBS deals (strongest year since 2007) **Currency Tuesday Positioning:** - EUR/USD at 1.1764 (up 6.75% over 12 months, strongest since late July) - USD Index at 97.4160 (down 4.16% over 12 months, near 7-week lows) - German bund yield fell to one-month low 2.638% - Broad dollar weakness as markets price Fed rate cut September 17 **Sector Tuesday Intelligence:** - Data Centers: 6.6% vacancy Q1 (down 2.1pp YoY), Northern Virginia 0.76% vacancy with 17.6% rent increases, $31.5B annualized construction spending - Industrial: 7.4% vacancy Q2 2025, rent growth slowed to 1.7% (lowest since 2012), sales surged past $33B H1 2025 - Multifamily: Most preferred asset class 2025, 2.2-2.6% rent growth forecast, vacancy expected 6.2-6.25% before stabilizing Tuesday intelligence that drives institutional decisions while others digest yesterday's data. Because in institutional real estate, current intelligence isn't optional - it's competitive advantage.

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Keywords: commercial real estate, institutional investing, CMBS, cap rates, real estate funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth, cross-border investment, real estate syndication, fund of funds, commercial mortgage, real estate intelligence, market analysis, investment strategy

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