RFP.co

Before gut instinct gets a vote on any RFP pursuit, one line of math should. This episode breaks down the expected-value formula that tells teams whether a bid is worth playing before a single word is written.

Show Notes

Bid/no-bid decisions are typically treated as judgment calls — about relationships, fit, and competitive read. But judgment is only as reliable as the arithmetic underneath it, and most teams skip the arithmetic entirely. This episode of RFP.co walks through the expected-value framework that should precede every pursuit conversation, using the bid/no-bid arithmetic framework as its foundation.

Here's what the episode covers:

  • The expected-value formula in plain terms: Win probability multiplied by contribution margin over the contract life, minus the fully loaded cost of pursuit — not the sticker price of the contract, and not just the proposal hours that made it onto a timesheet.
  • Why pursuit cost changes the game entirely: Two pursuits with identical win rates and identical contract values can have wildly different expected values depending on what it costs to chase each one — and that gap has nothing to do with proposal quality.
  • Break-even win rate as a room-ready shortcut: Dividing pursuit cost by contribution margin gives teams a qualifying threshold they can calculate in real time, before anyone has opened the solicitation. A heavy pursuit may require a hit rate that exceeds what the team actually achieves across its full portfolio.
  • Selectivity as a strategy, not a retreat: The fastest way to improve expected value across a portfolio is usually not faster writing or better staffing — it's bidding less often on work where qualification is already complete and past performance already exists. Tools like go/no-go scoring can formalize that filter before the team commits.
  • What GAO protest data actually shows: The episode examines FY2025 Government Accountability Office protest figures — roughly 1,600 cases filed, 14% sustained, with about half of protesters receiving some form of relief. The catch: most relief comes from voluntary agency corrective action, which typically means re-running a competition you already lost, against a buyer who now knows your pricing.
  • The only cost-free decision in the entire pursuit: Every moment after "yes" costs time and money. Before "yes," two numbers and a division are all it takes to either proceed with clear eyes or move on without spending a dollar.

The complete framework — including the formula, break-even tables, and sourced GAO figures — is available at the bid/no-bid guide on RFP.co.

RFP.co

What is RFP.co?

Procurement discovery and proposal automation, from both sides of the table. Finding the right opportunities, qualifying out early and without regret, building a reusable answer library, pricing decisions, and the operational discipline that turns responses from heroics into a repeatable process.

Each episode takes one part of the cycle — a bid/no-bid call, a compliance matrix, a debrief worth requesting — and works it through practically. Written for capture managers, proposal teams and the small companies competing against much larger ones. Five or six minutes an episode.

Topics include bid/no-bid decisions, opportunity discovery and filtering, compliance matrices, reusable answer libraries, pricing and win themes, past performance narratives, debriefs worth requesting, and competing against much larger incumbents.

Produced by RFP.co, procurement discovery and proposal automation. Full details, services and further reading at https://rfp.co