Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Tue, 7 Oct 2025, Europe Open)
Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, and geopolitics.
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto.
FX
- USD: Firm as prior JPY/EUR selling persists; USD/JPY > 150.
- JPY: Weak post-LDP result; authorities jawbone against “excessive” moves, but policy mix still widens differentials.
- EUR: Heavy on French political uncertainty; Macron asks outgoing PM Lecornu to hold stabilisation talks.
- GBP: Sideways with few domestic drivers.
- AUD/NZD: Range-bound ahead of RBNZ (markets split between 25–50 bp cut).
Commodities
- Oil: Steady after OPEC+ weekend decision; Saudi Aramco keeps Nov OSP premiums to Asia; market eyes EIA STEO later today.
- Gold: Buoyant near record highs amid policy and political risk hedging.
- Copper/Base metals: Firmer but contained with Asia holiday closures keeping activity light.
Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy
- US: Announces 25% tariff on all medium/heavy trucks entering the country from Nov 1; tariff rebates under discussion (no decision).
- EU: Commission to propose 50% tariffs on steel imports above a quota pegged to 2013 levels.
- Tech/China: WH AI/crypto lead argues against selling latest AI chips to China; FCC to vote this month on tighter restrictions for Chinese equipment deemed a security risk.
- Diplomacy: Trump–Carney (Canada) meeting today with trade on the agenda; Finnish president to follow Thursday.
- NZ: RBNZ creating a Financial Policy Committee for financial-stability decisions.
- Japan: New LDP chief Takaichi signals intent to deepen US alliance, backing a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Geopolitics
- Middle East (Gaza): Technical talks advancing; Egyptian media cites a positive round. No formal ceasefire; Gaza City remains a combat zone.
- Russia–Ukraine: US decision on Tomahawk deliveries pending usage clarity; EU curbs travel of Russian diplomats amid sabotage concerns.
- Venezuela: US halts diplomatic outreach, adding to Western Hemisphere policy complexity.
US Domestic Backdrop (market-relevant)
- Government shutdown: Both Dem and GOP bills failed in the Senate; agencies prep for potential federal worker layoffs if stalemate persists.