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This file was generated by Descript 

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voiceover: A key component of the
modern world economy, the chemical

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industry delivers products and
innovations to enhance everyday life.

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It is also an industry in transformation
where chemical executives and workers

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are delivering growth and industry
changing advancements while responding

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to pressures from investors, regulators,
and public opinion, discover how

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leading companies are approaching these
challenges here on the chemical show.

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Join Victoria Meyer, president
of Progressio Global and

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host of the chemical show.

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As she speaks with executives across the
industry and learns how they are leading

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their companies to grow, transform, and
push industry boundaries on all frontiers.

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Here's your host, Victoria Meyer.

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Victoria: Hi, this is Victoria Meyer.

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Welcome back to The Chemical Show,
where Chemicals Means Business.

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Today, I am speaking with Eric Bober,
who is the Senior VP at Nexant ECA.

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And Eric, you might recall, was
on The Chemical Show earlier

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this year on Episode 148.

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So if you haven't listened
to it, go check it out.

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Eric and I are really continuing this
conversation about green chemicals,

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evolution and revolution, and diving
a little bit deeper into methanol.

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So, Eric, welcome to The Chemical Show.

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Eric: Thanks very much, Victoria.

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Great to be here.

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Victoria: Yeah, absolutely,
happy to have you back.

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Um, so, let's just jump right in.

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What's changed?

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So, we talked earlier this year, and
it seems like this is a year, and of

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course it's a decade, that everybody's
very focused on green and sustainability

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and getting to some new molecules.

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What's changed since we last talked?

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Eric: Well, when we talked last time, one
of the main issues we talked about was how

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in terms of green chemicals in general and
green methanol, in particular, the markets

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were demanding revolutionary results,
but it takes an evolutionary approach.

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And what's changed is the revolution
continues and the evolution

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seems It's to be bogged down.

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Victoria: Yeah.

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So what does that mean?

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So how, why, how are we bogged down?

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Eric: So there's a lot of pent up demand
for environmentally improved methanol.

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So one application for that
will be as a bunker fuel and

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as a marine fuel for ships.

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Victoria: Yeah.

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Eric: And there's been hundreds
of ships that have been ordered.

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And in fact, in 2023, there were
about 135 ships ordered that

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could use methanol as a fuel.

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It made methanol the number one
alternative fuel for ships ordered in

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Victoria: Wow.

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Eric: And those ships are going to start
coming on stream starting next year.

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So

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in 2025, 2026, 2027, we're going
to have ships coming on that could

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use methanol, but we haven't really
had a lot of methanol projects

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break ground to meet that demand.

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Victoria: So is there enough methanol
already built to meet that demand?

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Or, or what happens if, if we don't have
that um, corresponding development and

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investment in the methanol business?

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Eric: So those ships would like to
use environmentally improved methanol.

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There will be gray methanol.

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lacking is the environmentally
improved methanol.

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It looks like we're going to
have steel on the seas before

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we have steel on the ground.

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Victoria: Yeah, that's interesting.

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Well, certainly one of the things I
heard earlier this year, I attended

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S&P Global's WPC, World Petrochemical
Conference, and, and there was a lot

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of conversation about shipping and
decarbonizing shipping and, one of the

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questions people asked, well, this is
all fine, but who's going to pay for it?

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I think, you know, so there's this
concern that green methanol is higher

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priced methanol or not, maybe not higher
price, a higher cost basis, right?

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Because it's expensive,
at least initially, until

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the cost curves come down.

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And the question is, you know,
who's going to pay for it?

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Maybe that's one of the things
that's slowing us down a bit

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in the development of it.

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Eric: It could be.

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There are subsidies available.

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There are grants available.

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So there's There's carrots.

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There's help to build a plant.

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There's help in terms
of subsidies to prices.

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So we need to sort of get the ball
rolling and get some steel on the ground.

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What we're seeing now is
a lot of announcements

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but the announcements are not
coming through to reaching financial

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close and starting construction.

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So we need to sort of get over
that hump, get through the valley.

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Um, some call it a valley of
death where projects die, but we

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need to get through and get some
of these projects really going.

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Victoria: Yeah.

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So it's interesting.

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So I know you and Nexant ECA work
pretty closely with a lot of companies

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that are, um, developing projects.

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What are the challenges
that they're facing, um, and

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maybe even the opportunities?

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How do you, how are you seeing them trying
to overcome this challenge and get there?

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Eric: Developing any project is hard.

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Project development is very difficult.

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It's a long road, but what we need
to do is with all of this pent

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up demand, we need to translate
that demand into consumption.

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So that takes developing a project,
making an investment decision,

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building the project, and actually
turning that into production that

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can be consumed to meet that demand.

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So project development is very difficult.

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You need a, you need to overcome
many risks and it's even harder

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for a project with a new technology
or with added technologies.

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Victoria: Yeah.

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So do you see any front runners
or are there things that front

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runners are doing differently?

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Eric: One of the things we see
that we really like is companies

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that are forming consortiums.

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So let people concentrate on their
core strengths and partner with other

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companies that can help them, whether
it's with raw material supply, whether

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it's with the offtake agreements,
whether it's on the shipping end itself.

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So we like for people to partner
with others that have strengths

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that can compliment their own.

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And we are sometimes part of that.

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So there's an increased need for advisors
in a project development process that

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involves new technologies to help
investors and lenders understand and

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mitigate the risks that will be involved.

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Victoria: Yeah, makes sense.

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And, and do you see this growth
happening more or less in one region?

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So what I think about this, and this
is my simple view of the world, you

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know, so a ship that's built that's
designed to be able to run methanol,

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You know, maybe it's picking, it's
refueling, uh, let's just say in the U.

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S.,

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and it's picking up its load of product
to go, let's just say to Asia, although

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I don't, you know, yeah, it could go,
ships go back and forth between Asia.

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What it's taking back and forth
is somewhat of a mystery at times.

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It feels like it's, uh, often a
one directional load,  but I would

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imagine it's not just that we
have to be satisfying the demand

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for green methanol in one region.

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That the shipping companies need that
demand and supply satisfied in all the

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regions that they're shipping between.

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Is that true?

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Eric: It's very true.

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It's very true.

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And that's actually one of the
strengths for methanol as opposed

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to other alternative fuels.

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Methanol is very shippable.

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It already has a global
infrastructure established.

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It's safer to use than many other fuels.

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It's liquid.

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It's already proven as a fuel as well.

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I recall working with a client that told
me that in the 1980s, when methanol was

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being tested for its ability to be a fuel
for vehicles for personal automobiles.

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He actually had a test car for
six months fueled with methanol

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and he said it drove great.

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There was no difference to him.

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He only had to go to the
methanol pump to get refueled.

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So there's a lot of
advantages of methanol.

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And I think those strengths need to be
leveraged better than they are currently.

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Victoria: Yeah.

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And is this a, so I know you
talked about consortiums.

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Um, I mean I think there's the other
aspect is maybe government incentives.

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Is that the other way that
we're going to get there?

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Eric: There's.

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Two different ways to do it.

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One is incentives and one is penalty.

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So it's carrots and sticks and
they're both working in different

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regions and in different ways.

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Here in, in the U.

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S.

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we have mostly carrots.

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So it's incentives to
help build, to help run.

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In Europe, they're
looking more at penalties.

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So increased costs if you don't
comply with the targeted green

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and, and environmentally improved.

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Um, benefits of the products.

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victoria_3_05-21-2024_133600: Given
that we say that we're still long,

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is there really an incentive to
build other than managing carbon?

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Is there ways to manage carbon?

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How are companies thinking about the
fact that maybe they're actually already

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operating in a long market environment
and do they have the economics made

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to, to support that new investment?

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eric_3_05-21-2024_143600: One of the
aspects I worry about, and I wonder if

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it's one of the things slowing us down.

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Is cannibalization.

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So people who are already in the
methanol market, if they have product

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that they're already selling into the
market, this new environmentally improved

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methanol, I wonder if they're worried
about it displacing their current

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victoria_3_05-21-2024_133600: Hmm.

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Hmm.

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That makes sense.

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And then, is, is there, what's the role
of kind of private investors in methanol?

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Because it felt, seems like at least
for a while, methanol investment

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was a little opportunistic, right?

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That, that the projects were being
built, many projects were being

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built by project developers, not
necessarily by operators and marketers.

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What do you see today?

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eric_3_05-21-2024_143600: It's
an interesting observation.

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And when I see project developers coming
into our market, I always think that means

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it's a good market because the project
developers are looking to come in and,

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and develop the project and make money.

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victoria_3_05-21-2024_133600: Yeah.

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eric_3_05-21-2024_143600: they're
seeing opportunity and I think they're

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seeing opportunity in methanol again.

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I think under the surface we have
project developers that are targeting

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this sector because they see a long term
future in it, especially to help in that

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shift from traditional fossil product
to environmentally improved product.

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victoria_3_05-21-2024_133600:
Yeah, makes sense.

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And, and so there's, there's, in the
long term, there's money to be made.

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We just have to get there.

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eric_3_05-21-2024_143600: Yes.

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Victoria: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Alright, so, so I'm going
to take this back a bit.

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So the, the green in green
methanol is because of the energy.

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Am I right, or is there actually a
different technology that gets us there?

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Eric: So another benefit of methanol,
there's a lot of ways to get there.

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And that's why I like to talk about
environmentally improved and not green or

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blue or pink or turquoise or aquamarine.

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So we're looking at products that have
lower carbon intensity, lower CI scores.

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So provide, um, a product that has
less of an impact on the environment

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and the extent to which you go
down that road really depends

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on the markets you're serving.

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And with methanol, you can do
that with different feedstocks.

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You can do that with different process
technologies, and you can also do

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that by managing what's emitted
from your plant, whether that's

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actually emissions or how your
product itself is handled.

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So there's a lot of opportunity.

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What we're seeing a lot of
is small projects that are

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using fully new technologies.

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So, like you said, what people
refer to as green, so electrolysis

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provided hydrogen, maybe captured CO2.

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But what we could use to get there
is more traditional plants that have

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carbon capture attached to them.

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And then you need to have something
to do with your CO2.Whether that's

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sequestering it or selling that or
reusing that, but those traditional core

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technologies with maybe an addition of
something like carbon capture, I think

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can get us over the hurdle a lot faster.

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Victoria: Yeah.

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Yeah.

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And certainly I think if, if
we think about, um, I guess

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just the different regions.

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I think about Europe, and Europe
obviously has an energy issue.

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More so than the other regions do, or, or
maybe sooner than other regions do, right?

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So they're active, both from a
policy perspective, but also just

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from an availability perspective.

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They're shifting, um, pretty
hard towards green energy, right?

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Do you see them using different
technologies ultimately, and is Europe

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even really investing in this space,
because it feels like investment in

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Europe is challenging at the moment.

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Do you see them trying to get there
faster, just because they have

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to, the whole necessity of it?

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Eric: It is difficult in Europe.

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They have challenges, but
everybody in different regions

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has their own challenges.

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And we do see it in Europe.

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We do see people trying to
develop projects in Europe.

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Like you said, they may be conceptually
different from projects you see in

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Asia or projects you see in America.

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But, they are trying to get there as well.

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Victoria: Yeah, yeah, I
mean I think that's true.

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How do we speed things up?

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Because, and, you know, we talked about
this as being, um, revolution versus

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evolution, and we need the evolution.

00:14:08.119 --> 00:14:13.209
of developing the, as you
say, environmentally improved

00:14:13.239 --> 00:14:15.799
methanol, um, to catch up.

00:14:16.549 --> 00:14:20.929
What are the solutions that you see
coming to, to help resolve this?

00:14:22.571 --> 00:14:24.221
Eric: Let me answer that two ways.

00:14:24.261 --> 00:14:28.591
One is sort of a stop gap
and one as a longer term.

00:14:28.991 --> 00:14:32.181
The stop gap is we have
plenty of methanol.

00:14:32.991 --> 00:14:37.981
Old fashioned methanol, natural gas based,
some would call gray methanol or brown

00:14:37.981 --> 00:14:44.711
methanol from coal, and that could be
used in these ships as an interim, and

00:14:44.931 --> 00:14:51.201
it actually could be beneficial in that
it can prove that methanol is viable as a

00:14:51.201 --> 00:14:54.191
fuel, it could prove out the supply chain.

00:14:55.206 --> 00:14:58.886
But it doesn't get us to the
environmentally improved, uh, end

00:14:58.886 --> 00:15:00.676
point that we're all hoping for.

00:15:01.066 --> 00:15:05.006
And I think for that, I think
this consortium concept is good.

00:15:05.346 --> 00:15:09.316
I think, I think to one particular
client that we've worked

00:15:09.316 --> 00:15:11.316
with over the last six years.

00:15:11.566 --> 00:15:14.386
So they've been trying to
develop a project for six years

00:15:14.816 --> 00:15:16.546
and I think they'll get,

00:15:16.789 --> 00:15:19.949
Victoria: long and short in
the project development world.

00:15:20.306 --> 00:15:21.406
Eric: it is, it is.

00:15:21.701 --> 00:15:24.591
Um, I'm hoping they get to
financial close this summer and

00:15:24.591 --> 00:15:26.631
we'll break ground in the fall.

00:15:26.841 --> 00:15:29.681
But what they've done is, is
they've looked for partners.

00:15:29.731 --> 00:15:33.541
They've looked for people to help
them with feedstocks, to help them

00:15:33.541 --> 00:15:37.481
with technologies, to help them with
the ever important offtake agreement.

00:15:38.071 --> 00:15:42.601
And we've helped them with their
marketing plan, as well as with technology

00:15:42.601 --> 00:15:44.231
assessments and risk mitigation.

00:15:44.851 --> 00:15:49.551
And one of the things they've done very
effectively is market segmentation.

00:15:50.121 --> 00:15:54.371
So they've looked at the market and
thought about where could their particular

00:15:54.371 --> 00:16:00.511
product with their CI score earn the
most in terms of netbacks to the plant.

00:16:01.021 --> 00:16:03.741
And it's something I've done
personally in my career.

00:16:03.771 --> 00:16:05.751
I ran a product line.

00:16:05.751 --> 00:16:10.431
I was a product manager when recycling
became popular and we developed a

00:16:10.431 --> 00:16:12.311
recycled version of our product.

00:16:12.551 --> 00:16:15.541
But it costs more, there was
dirt in the raw material.

00:16:15.541 --> 00:16:17.211
We had to run our lines slower.

00:16:18.171 --> 00:16:22.211
Uh, we had more off spec products and
all these things increase the cost.

00:16:22.571 --> 00:16:25.131
So I wanted to charge
more for the product.

00:16:26.011 --> 00:16:31.121
But the boss, the senior vice president
that ran the business said, no way

00:16:31.131 --> 00:16:33.081
you have to sell it at the same price.

00:16:33.731 --> 00:16:34.371
So.

00:16:34.931 --> 00:16:38.651
I look for market segments that
would volunteer to pay more.

00:16:38.651 --> 00:16:42.751
I looked for market segments for
which a recycled product would earn

00:16:42.761 --> 00:16:45.161
them more money or more market share.

00:16:45.581 --> 00:16:49.761
And I found one and I developed
the business with the number one

00:16:50.181 --> 00:16:52.111
customer in that market segment.

00:16:52.171 --> 00:16:57.041
And they were happy to offset my added
costs because the recycled version

00:16:57.041 --> 00:17:01.053
of the product added a lot more value
for them and their customers then

00:17:01.053 --> 00:17:02.681
I was charging them an upcharge.

00:17:02.971 --> 00:17:04.011
So we need to do that.

00:17:04.011 --> 00:17:08.521
We need to, to get back to marketing
basics and look for the segments that

00:17:08.601 --> 00:17:10.371
can provide the value that you need.

00:17:10.961 --> 00:17:11.701
Victoria: Yeah, certainly.

00:17:11.719 --> 00:17:15.899
And I think, I think we are doing
that maybe, in some product areas

00:17:15.909 --> 00:17:20.464
more than others, I think, um, you
know, we often think of methanol as

00:17:20.464 --> 00:17:22.579
a truly commoditized basic chemical.

00:17:22.589 --> 00:17:29.759
So, um, it's, uh, maybe easy to think
that there's limited market segmentation,

00:17:30.009 --> 00:17:32.839
but to your point, It, it is there.

00:17:33.129 --> 00:17:36.049
And there's certainly some markets
that are probably willing to pay

00:17:36.099 --> 00:17:40.969
more than others and can, and frankly
just the affordability of the higher

00:17:40.989 --> 00:17:45.209
cost, um, methanol, environmentally
improved methanol is there.

00:17:46.319 --> 00:17:49.189
Do you have any hypotheses on
that that you'd like to share?

00:17:49.941 --> 00:17:51.781
Eric: Well, I don't want
to get into specific market

00:17:52.311 --> 00:17:54.641
but I, but I think, I
think they are there.

00:17:54.681 --> 00:17:55.591
I really do.

00:17:56.011 --> 00:18:02.601
I think that, um, you know, methanol
had a big thing when methanol came

00:18:02.859 --> 00:18:08.429
and it went from zero to adding
incremental demands that made MTO

00:18:08.459 --> 00:18:10.549
the number one market segment for

00:18:10.837 --> 00:18:11.217
Victoria: Yeah.

00:18:11.619 --> 00:18:17.734
Eric: Methanol is a very versatile
product, and the opportunity to use

00:18:17.734 --> 00:18:21.484
methanol as a marine fuel could be
the next big thing for methanol.

00:18:21.874 --> 00:18:23.764
And there's other opportunities as well.

00:18:23.824 --> 00:18:29.564
I'd love to see, this is just  a personal
love, if we can use environmentally

00:18:29.564 --> 00:18:35.874
improved methanol to make green plastics
through MTO, conceptually, it's easy.

00:18:36.324 --> 00:18:36.804
So

00:18:37.137 --> 00:18:39.067
Victoria: Everything's easy conceptually.

00:18:40.274 --> 00:18:43.604
Eric: With the strong push to green
plastics, I wouldn't be surprised

00:18:43.634 --> 00:18:48.864
to see green plastics made from
environmentally improved methanol,

00:18:48.864 --> 00:18:50.714
even here in the united States.

00:18:51.574 --> 00:18:55.324
Victoria: Where, is most of
the MTO work happening today?

00:18:55.634 --> 00:18:55.664
I

00:18:55.664 --> 00:18:56.244
Eric: it's in China

00:18:56.244 --> 00:18:59.414
Victoria: do we have, it is China,
and do we have really commercially

00:18:59.414 --> 00:19:02.844
viable MTO technologies in place?

00:19:03.071 --> 00:19:03.801
Eric: Absolutely.

00:19:04.024 --> 00:19:04.344
Victoria: Okay.

00:19:05.961 --> 00:19:09.761
Eric: And one other market segment I was
going to mention is methanol to jet fuel.

00:19:10.291 --> 00:19:15.186
So, Ethanol to jet fuel and alcohol
in general to jet fuel has been

00:19:15.186 --> 00:19:16.556
talked about for a long time.

00:19:16.556 --> 00:19:20.646
But now that the excitement is around
potentially methanol to jet fuel.

00:19:21.154 --> 00:19:21.644
Victoria: Okay.

00:19:22.024 --> 00:19:25.094
And so this would be a form of SAF,

00:19:25.124 --> 00:19:26.014
I guess?

00:19:26.654 --> 00:19:31.004
Uh, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, it's
the lingo we're all supposed to know.

00:19:31.369 --> 00:19:32.899
One of the many acronyms.

00:19:33.169 --> 00:19:33.639
, 

Awesome.

00:19:34.119 --> 00:19:37.679
Um, so what else, what should
we be looking for then in terms

00:19:37.709 --> 00:19:40.189
of kind of timing to get there?

00:19:40.189 --> 00:19:43.039
What we should be expecting over
the rest of the year when we think

00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:47.989
about Methanol, green methanol and
environmentally improved methanol.

00:19:49.146 --> 00:19:55.086
Eric: Well, as I was preparing for this
session and I was thinking about the ships

00:19:55.176 --> 00:20:02.026
coming on stream starting next year, I, I
thought of the old movie, Field of Dreams.

00:20:02.456 --> 00:20:02.716
If you

00:20:02.716 --> 00:20:06.736
remember the quote from that movie
was, "If you build it, he will come."

00:20:07.256 --> 00:20:12.151
And I think in this case, They're
coming, so we need to build it.

00:20:13.181 --> 00:20:14.171
The ships are coming.

00:20:14.181 --> 00:20:15.981
They're going to come starting next year.

00:20:16.201 --> 00:20:20.221
And if we can have environmentally
improved methanol, the ships will use it.

00:20:20.889 --> 00:20:22.129
Victoria: Yeah, absolutely.

00:20:22.179 --> 00:20:23.039
I think it's a great point.

00:20:23.439 --> 00:20:26.269
Well, Eric, this has been
a great conversation.

00:20:26.269 --> 00:20:29.679
I think, uh, learned a lot more about
what's going on in the world of methanol,

00:20:29.679 --> 00:20:34.419
and I think this is really one of the
foundational chemical products that

00:20:34.419 --> 00:20:39.379
connects us to the shipping industry and
to a large consumer that, as you pointed

00:20:39.379 --> 00:20:43.469
out, really has potential to decarbonize.

00:20:45.039 --> 00:20:47.949
And in many ways it's being asked
to decarbonize perhaps faster

00:20:47.949 --> 00:20:48.999
than some other industries.

00:20:49.009 --> 00:20:52.959
So it'll be great to see how
this continues to develop.

00:20:54.131 --> 00:20:54.641
Eric: I agree.

00:20:54.661 --> 00:20:55.161
Thank you.

00:20:55.549 --> 00:20:56.229
Victoria: Yeah, absolutely.

00:20:56.229 --> 00:20:57.669
Well, thanks for joining us today.

00:20:58.129 --> 00:21:01.839
And thanks everyone for joining us
on this episode of The Chemical Show.

00:21:01.869 --> 00:21:05.834
Keep listening, keep following, keep
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