GLED018 - Week Ahead Positioning — Post-FOMC Momentum & Global Capital Deployment

Week ahead positioning: 10Y Treasury 4.15%, global RE investment +27% to $952B, $13-14T SWF repositioning. Key events: Powell speech, SNB decision, PCE data.

Show Notes

Monday morning week-ahead positioning analysis for institutional real estate capital following post-FOMC sustained momentum. Post-FOMC Week-Ahead Momentum: Federal Reserve's 25bp cut to 4.00%-4.25% creating sustained week-ahead opportunities. US 10-year Treasury at 4.15% showing fourth consecutive session of gains while commercial mortgage rates starting around 5.01% with agency multifamily loans 5.00%-5.20%. Global real estate investment projected to rise 27% to $952 billion in 2025. Global Capital Deployment Analysis: North America forecast as fastest-growing region with 38% increase to $575 billion. Cross-border investment showing selective optimism but more cautious approach. Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and Singaporean investors remaining active despite notable pullback by cross-border investors from US driven by risk perception. Sovereign Wealth Fund Week-Ahead Positioning: $13-14 trillion assets under management up from $11.6 trillion in 2022. Real estate allocations declining to 7.3% from 9.2% in 2022. Infrastructure allocations reaching 8.1% surpassing real estate for first time. Middle Eastern funds accounting for over half of all SWF deployment globally. Key Week-Ahead Events: Fed Chair Powell speech September 24, Swiss National Bank decision September 25, US Core PCE inflation data September 26, global PMI data releases throughout week. These events critical for institutional positioning and deployment timing. Commercial Mortgage Rate Week-Ahead Outlook: 30-year fixed mortgage rates around 6.37%-6.39% following Fed cuts. Fannie Mae forecasts continued gradual decline with potential 5.8% by Q3 2025. Lower rates expected to ease CRE financing pressure and create refinancing opportunities. Cross-Border Investment Week-Ahead Trends: Foreign investment in US commercial real estate hit lowest level since 2011. International investors increasingly considering Germany, Canada, Mexico, India, Australia. Share of global investment outside home countries dropped from 32% in 2019 to 23% in 2023. Week-Ahead Global Institutional Advantage: Strategic positioning for key economic events and policy announcements while leveraging post-FOMC momentum for enhanced deployment opportunities in sustained lower rate environment. Contact: [e-mail]

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