Panellists:
Victor do Prado,
Senior Fellow, Brazilian Center for International Relations – CEBRI
Shannon O'Neil, Vice President of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Moderator: Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute
This podcast episode was recorded on 4 April 2024.
The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’
With geopolitics, concerns for economic security and ambitious industrial policies creating new trading patterns and dependencies, global value chains are being reshaped. This fluid new landscape of global trade presents both opportunities and challenges for two of Latin America’s strongest economies: Mexico and Brazil.
What are the main factors driving the integration of Mexico and Brazil in global value chains? How has the Biden Administration’s industrial strategy impacted Mexico and how is Brazil leveraging its relationship with China, its major source of FDI? What role is trade playing in the industrial development of both countries? And what does the experience of Mexico and Brazil tell us about the place of Latin America in the global economy?
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What is AIG Global Trade Series?
Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade?
Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies.
From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?