The employment puzzle.
Welcome to the Know the Difference Minute for Tuesday, August 30th.
Employment is a wildcard in the great recession debate. Fed Chairman Powell mentions it often. If bringing down inflation through rate raises means a softer labor market, it might be a tough but necessary pill to swallow. 
But….today’s JOLTS report suggest the increases may not be doing the trick—at least yet. Employment is healthy. In July, there were nearly 1 million more job openings than expected.  In all, 11.2 million—up almost 200,000 from June. There are still nearly 2 jobs for every unemployed American. 
That ratchets up attention on Friday’s August nonfarm payroll number. The expectation is 318,000 but estimates lately have missed wildly. 
Will we see a 3rd consecutive 75 basis point hike this month? CME Group data had the odds at 76.5% this morning. 
I’m Dave Spano from Annex Wealth Management.  That is your Know the Difference Minute.