Strategic Positioning: Week 33

Monday, August 17, 2026. WEEK 33 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI at $82.09, down 0.38% from prior day per CFD/benchmark report; another note indicated rise toward $82.44 amid market movements. Aug 16 around $82.08 (delayed quote/settlement reference); one historical table listed 81.52 with -1.07% change; intraday trading referenced opens near $82.53 and ranges in low $82s. Aug 14 settlement $82.40 (up 1.42%). Aug 13 $81.25 settlement (down 2.43%). Front-month WTI futures CLU26 Sep 2026 traded on NYMEX. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 11 spot (latest reported) $2.79 (up from $2.72 on Aug 10). Earlier Aug: Aug 7 ~$2.56; Aug 6/5 ~$2.60; Aug 4 ~$2.74. CME Henry Hub futures (mid-Aug 2026) trading around $2.66-$2.72 on Aug 16, 2026, with daily changes roughly -0.4% to -2.7%. Broader natural gas (CFD tracking Henry Hub) around $2.66-$2.73 on Aug 16-17, 2026, reflecting downward pressure. EIA Q3 2026 expectations around $2.87 in some outlooks. 2026 averages low-to-mid $3 range. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Aug 14 (Friday) only 2 vessels transited (one grain carrier entering Iranian waters, one empty dry bulk carrier exiting); separately empty LPG tanker noted heading through; no crude oil cargoes observed (Kpler analysis); nine vessels passed prior Thursday; five on Wednesday. Aug 13 13 confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings (MarineTraffic data: 7 entering Gulf, 6 exiting; mix of vessel types including some sanctioned/shadow vessels). Aug 13/14 context Hormuz shipping traffic shows no sign of recovery (per gCaptain reports citing trade data); PortWatch recorded just 1 transit on Aug 9 against pre-crisis baseline of ~73 per day. Aug 10 (Monday) traffic fell to 6 vessels (vs. 10-day average of ~11); included 4 commodity vessels entering (two empty oil product tankers) and 2 exiting (one small LPG tanker, one with residual fuels) (Kpler/Reuters). Around Aug 11-12 5-day average of ~13 transits (all ship types), near three-month low and ~90% below pre-war levels (Kpler data via CNBC analysis). Aug 5 8 vessels transited (including 5 tankers and 3 bulk carriers; Kpler data). Aug 15 (or recent daily snapshot) 16 vessels recorded transiting (mix including dry bulk carriers, chemical tanker, oil tanker). Mid-Aug daily example (Windward data, ~Aug 15 context) 13 total crossings (4 inbound, 9 outbound), with several running AIS-dark for extended periods; composition included tankers, bulk carriers, cargo vessels. Broader Aug trend traffic remains well below pre-crisis norms; reports of attacks on vessels (including ADNOC-linked tankers) contributing to caution; some sources note Iranian-linked or shadow fleet activity and limited commercial flows. Overall context cumulative effects from crisis (including prior attacks, threats, stalled diplomacy) kept flows suppressed since spring/summer; occasional slight rebounds but no sustained recovery to normal levels as of mid-Aug. Pre-crisis baselines consistently cited as much higher (often 100+ daily). THE READ: Crude WTI $82.09 down 0.38%; Aug 16 $82.08; Aug 14 settlement $82.40 up 1.42%; Aug 13 $81.25 down 2.43%; front-month CLU26 Sep 2026 NYMEX. Gas Aug 11 spot $2.79 up from $2.72 Aug 10; earlier Aug 7 $2.56, Aug 6/5 $2.60, Aug 4 $2.74; CME Henry Hub futures mid-Aug $2.66-$2.72 Aug 16, daily changes -0.4% to -2.7%; broader natural gas CFD $2.66-$2.73 Aug 16-17, downward pressure; EIA Q3 2026 $2.87; 2026 averages low-to-mid $3. Hormuz Aug 14 only 2 vessels, grain carrier Iranian waters, empty dry bulk exiting, empty LPG heading through, no crude oil, Kpler, nine prior Thursday, five Wednesday; Aug 13 13 crossings, MarineTraffic 7 entering 6 exiting, sanctioned/shadow vessels, no recovery, gCaptain, PortWatch 1 transit Aug 9 vs. 73 pre-crisis; Aug 10 6 vessels vs. 10-day average 11, 4 commodity entering, 2 empty oil product tankers, 2 exiting, 1 small LPG, 1 residual fuels, Kpler Reuters; Aug 11-12 5-day average 13 transits, three-month low, 90% below pre-war, Kpler CNBC; Aug 5 8 vessels, 5 tankers 3 bulk; Aug 15 16 vessels, dry bulk, chemical tanker, oil tanker; mid-Aug Windward 13 crossings, 4 inbound 9 outbound, AIS-dark, tankers bulk cargo; Aug trend well below pre-crisis, attacks ADNOC tankers, Iranian-linked shadow fleet, limited flows; crisis cumulative effects, attacks threats stalled diplomacy, suppressed since spring/summer, occasional rebounds, no sustained recovery mid-Aug; pre-crisis 100+ daily. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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