Howdy! Today, we’re going Country, looking at the CMAs’ full list of nominations and making some educated guesses about who might win based on streaming and social data.... chartmetric.com @chartmetric #chartmetric #musicindustry #musicbusiness #CMAs #country #marenmorris #blakeshelton #thomasrhett #lilnasx #billyraycyrus
- Howdy! Today, we’re going Country, looking at the CMAs’ full list of nominations and making some educated guesses about who might win based on streaming and social data.
- Good morning, it’s Rutger here at Chartmetric with your 3-minute Data Dump where we upload charts, artists, and playlists into your brain so you can stay up on the latest in the music data world.
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- This is your Data Dump for Friday, Sept. 6th, 2019.
- Data Predictions for the 2019 Country Music Association Awards
- Saddle up, because we’re heading to Nashville, figuratively speaking, to check out what’s going on with this year’s CMAs.
- Based on streaming and social data, can we make some educated guesses about who might win at this year’s ceremony?
- 12 categories comprise the full range of awards, including Album of the Year, Single of the Year, Musical Event of the Year, Music Video of the Year, and New Artist of the Year, among others.
- Maren Morris leads the pack with a total of six noms, and if we filter our “Artists” tab for the Country genre, Morris comes up at No. 3 in terms of Chartmetric rank, so she’s gotta at least win one, right?
- Her track “Girl,” which is nominated for Single of the Year, alongside Blake Shelton’s “God’s Country,” has a good shot.
- While neither are currently charting on Apple Music or Spotify, if we filter for genre on Amazon’s Track Charts, Shelton has the edge over Morris with a No. 5 rank compared to No. 12 for Morris.
- But Shelton’s Chartmetric rank is No. 7 compared to Morris’ No. 3, so this one’s going to be close — a real tossup, if data has anything to say about the matter.
- Overall, Morris also has some competition from Carrie Underwood, who is up for an impressive three awards.
- When it comes to Album of the Year, though, Morris leads with an 81 Spotify popularity score for her album “Girl,” compared to 65 for Underwood’s “Cry Pretty.”
- Morris’ closest competition in this category, if we’re going strictly by streaming performance? Thomas Rhett’s “Center Point Road” at 79.
- Looking at the Nashville “Cities” page, Rhett also has the seventh highest Spotify Monthly Listener count for the Tennessee capital where the CMAs will be held.
- And then there’s the category everyone’s wondering about: Musical Event of the Year.
- The category is interestingly described on the CMAs website as “a collaboration of two or more people either or all of whom are known primarily as a Country artist.”
- After being quietly stripped of his brief Country label by Billboard, Lil Nas X can at least find solace in the fact that his “Old Town Road” collab with Billy Ray Cyrus landed a Musical Event of the Year nom at this year’s CMAs.
- We probably don’t need to go back over how big of a viral sensation this surprise crossover hit was, so we’ll just say that, as far as Chartmetric rank goes, Lil Nas X is sitting at No. 32 out of all 1.7M+ artists that we track, and Billy Ray Cyrus is at No. 1 if we filter our “Artists” tab for the Country genre.
- So, even if “Old Town Road” doesn’t win the CMA award, I think we can all agree it really was the musical event of the year … so far.
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