American economist and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman entered the economics profession to follow in the footsteps of Hari Seldon, a psychohistorian living on Trantor, approximately 10,000 years into the future. Seldon, psychohistory and Trantor are all from Isaac Assimov's Foundation series published between 1951 to '53. Seldon used, "the mathematics of human behaviour to save civilisation," as Krugman put it. Admittedly, "economics is a pretty poor substitute", muses Krugman, "[b]ut I tried," he says. Many would say he's done so very successfully having been awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography.
Is he the best psychohistorian alive? Your podcaster does not think so - they hand out those Nobels like candy. No, the best is Hungarian-American George Friedman, the geopolitical strategist. As proof this podcaster offers his 2009 book titled: "The Next 100 Years". Sure, Seldon forecasted the next 1,000 for the galaxy, but still, who on Earth is offering an outlook for the next century?
In Friedman's book, Japan plays a very prominent role, second only to the United States. In macroeconomics and monetary policy Japan plays a central role too. It is the scout. Recon as the Americans call it; recee to the Commonwealth. The Bank of Japan is about seven years ahead of the main central banking force. And it's waving back at everyone to, 'Stay back! Don't come this way!' Is the warning lost in translation? Is it ignored?
Spanish essayist George Santayana famously noted, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." But your podcaster prefers Friedman's quip that, "Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not."
----------WHY----------
PART 01: Central banks regulate money supply - the Federal Reserve does not. The Fed does not control US dollars. Consider what came of Fed research Marvin Goodfriend's writings in the 1980s and 90s the eurodollar system and its enormous, ocean of offshore dollars? Nothing.
PART 02: Real central banks manage money supply. Fake central banks manage inflation expectations. Central bankers cannot define, identify, quantify or convey money supply. Thus, they are reduced to observing a monetary output: inflation expectations.
PART 03: The Bank of Japan has implemented radical, unorthodox policies for over two decades. The bank is seven years out in front of everyone. As scout, it has repeatedly warned the main central banking force (i.e. Britain, Europe and North America) not to follow in its path. But it's been ignored.
----------WHERE----------
AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
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----------WHAT----------
Bond Yields Are Really Quite Easy to Understand: https://bit.ly/2T3rQNT
Marvin Goodfriend's 1981 "Eurodollars" article : https://bit.ly/2HgoRyL
J. Alfred Broaddus Jr.'s 1993 'Good Luck' article: https://bit.ly/2SYebHM
Randal K. Quarles' 2020 'All Clear' speech: https://bit.ly/319RuVF
Inflation (Expectations) Is Anything But Confusing: https://bit.ly/3j6CYE0
Decoding Gauges of Inflation Expectations Is Fed’s Next Big Task: https://bloom.bg/2T3qmDm
You Need To Understand What’s Really Behind This New ‘V’, And Once Again Japan Is More Than Helpful: https://bit.ly/358weAz
Raising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan: https://bit.ly/31f85Yi
Why Did the BOJ Not Achieve the 2 Percent Inflation Target with a Time Horizon of About Two Years?: https://bit.ly/359eS6T
----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with
Emil Kalinowski, falling out of balance, splitting his differential and tipping the f— over. Artwork by
David Parkins, the Edmund Blackadder of the lampoon trenches. Podcast intro/outro is "
Tiger's Nest" by
Ooyy and
Smartface at
Epidemic Sound.