Geographic Feature: Country of Pakistan

Friday, October 16, 2026. PAKISTAN ENERGY MARKETS. Net energy importer modest domestic crude oil/natural gas supplemented significant LNG imports. Faces acute short-term LNG supply disruptions Qatar force majeure, elevated import costs winter 2026-27. Reserves concentrated Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: August 2026: 68,600 bpd +10% YoY, -5% MoM. Provincial: KP 49% (33,614 bpd), Sindh 35% (24,010), Punjab 15% (10,290), Balochistan 1% (686). Reserves June 2026: 276M barrels (+15% YoY from 240M). New discoveries Baragzai, Spinwam. Reserve life ~19 years. FY2025-26: 23.85M barrels (95% target 25.18M). OGDCL (55% production): FY2025-26: 36,013 bpd. FY2030-31 target: 60,384 bpd (+68%). NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: August 2026: 3,008 mmcfd +8% YoY, +1% MoM. Provincial: Sindh 62% (1,865 mmcfd), Balochistan 20% (602), KP 15% (452), Punjab 3% (90). Reserves June 2026: 20,664 Bcf (+9-10% YoY from 18,981). Mari Ghazij, Spinwam additions. Reserve life ~19 years. FY2025-26: 1.07 Tcf (below 1.16 Tcf target, mature field depletion). OGDCL gas: FY2025-26: 797 MMscfd sales. FY2030-31 target: 1,167 MMscfd (+46%). LPG PRODUCTION: August 2026: 2,238 tonnes/day (+20% YoY, +7% MoM). FY2025-26: 0.767M tonnes (exceeded target). EXPLORATION: September 2026 +352% MoM exploratory drilling to 7,270 metres. Offshore bid round first 18 years, drilling plans 2026. LNG IMPORTS/WINTER CRISIS: October 2026: First cargo Oct 13-14 (Al Areesh, Engro terminal, 150 mmcfd regasification). Two cargoes October only. Both terminals mostly idle (Engro Sept 26-Oct 13, PGPL Oct 9 onward, low inventory). Qatar force majeure March 2026 (Ras Laffan), extended to ~Nov 6. Pakistan previously ~99% Qatar sourced. Winter 2026-27 demand surge: SNGPL 550→1,550 mmcfd peak. SSGC 300→500 mmcfd. Targets 22-26 cargoes total (vs 36 prior winter). 12 long-term (mostly Qatar, possibly Eni). 10+ spot market ~$26.30/MMBtu (double term rates). Winter import cost exceeds $1B. Spot cargo estimated cost ~$863M (~10 cargoes). Seeking alternatives: US, Middle East, Azerbaijan SOCAR, spot tenders. Load management plan development (domestic priority, possible curtailments export/CNG/cement/power). Policy: Third-party terminal access, allow private power producer direct imports, diplomatic Qatari cargoes. ELECTRICITY SECTOR: Installed capacity March 2026: 49,651 MW (+8.5% YoY). Generation mix July-March FY2026: Cleaner sources (hydel, nuclear, renewables) 53% for first time (exceed thermal). Solar surged. Gas consumption power: 2,929 mmcfd average (July 2025-March 2026), LNG filling gaps. Winter spikes expected, load management needed. E&P PROFITABILITY: ~15% YoY profit decline projected Q2 FY2026 (weak oil prices, lower gas output). Major players: OGDCL (55% crude, 28% gas), Mari Energies, PPL, POL. SUMMARY: Crude oil 68,600 bpd Aug (+10% YoY), KP 49%, Sindh 35%. Reserves 276M barrels (+15% YoY), ~19 year life. OGDCL targets 60% growth 60,384 bpd FY2030-31. Natural gas 3,008 mmcfd Aug (+8% YoY), Sindh 62%. Reserves 20,664 Bcf (+9-10% YoY), ~19 year life. OGDCL targets 46% growth 1,167 MMscfd FY2030-31. LPG 2,238 tonnes/day (+20% YoY). Exploration: Offshore bid first 18 years, drilling 2026. LNG crisis acute: Qatar force majeure severely limits term supplies (was 99%). Oct 13-14 first cargo 150 mmcfd. Two Oct cargoes only. Terminals mostly idle. Winter 2026-27 demand surge SNGPL 1,550 mmcfd peak (550), SSGC 500 (300). Targets 22-26 cargoes (vs 36 prior). 12 long-term, 10+ spot. Spot ~$26.30/MMBtu (double term). Winter bill >$1B (~$863M spot). Seeking alternatives US/ME/Azerbaijan/spot. Load plan development (domestic priority, curtailments possible). Electricity: 49,651 MW capacity (Mar 2026, +8.5% YoY). Cleaner 53% first time (hydel/nuclear/renewables >thermal). Gas power 2,929 mmcfd avg, LNG filling, winter spikes/load management needed. E&P profit ~15% YoY decline Q2 FY2026 (weak oil, lower gas). Pakistan energy dependent imports/LNG. Domestic depletion pressures, severe near-term supply disruptions (Qatar force majeure) create acute winter 2026-27 risks, elevated costs ~$1B+ winter, load management/curtailment pressures. Domestic production modest (69k bpd oil, 3,000 mmcfd gas) insufficient demand. Reserve life ~19 years medium-term supportive, infrastructure aging, exploration/development critical. Electricity generation mix shift renewables positive, winter LNG shortfalls threaten power generation/load stability. Geopolitical factors (Strait Hormuz, Qatar) amplify vulnerability.

What is Energy Markets Daily?

Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions.

Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector.

Contact: [e-mail]

Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.