Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing — 21 Oct 2025
FX
- USD: DXY steady in tight ranges amid Fed blackout and sparse U.S. data; tone guided by U.S.–China headlines.
- EUR: Little changed near recent lows after ECB’s Nagel reiterated a wait-and-see stance.
- GBP: Slipped back through 1.34 on light domestic news; eyes on UK PSNB.
- JPY: Choppy around the 151 handle; political clarity as LDP’s Sanae Takaichi confirmed PM, while BoJ rhetoric stays cautious about withdrawing accommodation.
- Antipodeans: NZD lags on softer local data; AUD capped despite China’s data beat and unchanged PBoC LPRs (1Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.50%).
- CNH/CNY: Supported by firmer China prints (Q3 GDP, industrial output, retail sales) and unchanged LPRs; Party plenum in focus.
Commodities
- Crude: Subdued after recent chop; Middle East headlines offset by lack of fresh supply shocks and lingering demand questions.
- Gold: Eases from record highs after Monday’s rate-cut bid; still underpinned by policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Copper/Base metals: Rangebound; mild support from China’s better data and five-year planning signals at the plenum.
- Gas & flows: Kazakhstan says Orenburg gas plant disruption hasn’t hit domestic supply; intake expected to resume soon. Iraq to sign U.S. LNG supply deal with Excelerate Energy.
Trade & Tariffs
- U.S.–China: President reaffirms Nov 1 deadline for added tariffs absent a deal, but says China has been “respectful” and a Xi meeting is set; U.S. wants soybean purchases restored and flagged leverage on aircraft.
- Targeted U.S. measures: 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and 10% on buses from Nov 1; concurrent selective easing/exemptions to aid onshoring and deals.
- Talks: Treasury Sec. Bessent and VP He Lifeng held “candid, constructive” discussions; in-person meeting this week.
- Allies & minerals: U.S.–Australia critical-minerals pact—over $3bn public investment in six months; joint processing and projects with Japan.
- Nicaragua: USTR proposes up to 100% duties after a Section 301 probe and suspension of CAFTA-DR benefits (immediate or phased).
- Korea: Seoul sees higher odds of a U.S. trade arrangement by APEC.
- Europe: Dutch economy minister defends security intervention at Nexperia; seeks talks with Beijing to cool tensions.
Geopolitics
- Middle East: Israel reported Hamas ceasefire violations and launched limited strikes before saying truce enforcement resumed; reopening of Rafah and aid tied to return of additional hostages’ remains and adherence to frameworks.
- Russia–Ukraine: U.S.–Russia leaders’ call termed “productive”; staff-level meeting next week though a near-term summit may slip. IAEA says repairs to Zaporizhzhia off-site power lines have begun under localized ceasefires.
- Japan: Takaichi elected Japan’s first female PM; cabinet picks and coalition mechanics watched for policy continuity and BoJ implications.
- Cyber/Asia: China alleges a U.S. cyberattack on a state agency; U.S. officials weigh optics of a potential meeting with North Korea’s leader during an Asia trip.
Summary
- FX holds to ranges with the USD steady, EUR sidelined, GBP softer, and JPY guided by yields and Japan’s political handover.
- Commodities reflect the same push-pull: oil steady, gold easing from highs, copper anchored by China data.
- Trade policy risk stays elevated into Nov 1 but active diplomacy continues (U.S.–China talks, minerals pact with Australia).
- Geopolitical temperature is contained but fluid—ceasefire management in Gaza and procedural diplomacy on Ukraine.
- Near-term catalysts: Canada CPI, UK PSNB, central-bank remarks, and any concrete U.S.–China movement ahead of the tariff deadline.
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