WEBVTT NOTE This file was generated by Descript 00:00:00.870 --> 00:00:06.600 Welcome to Resilience Talk hosted by Paul Spencer of Second Nature Solutions. 00:00:07.020 --> 00:00:07.860 Let's dive in. 00:00:08.641 --> 00:00:16.381 I got a lot of comments recently around the topic of Deming and his concept 00:00:16.381 --> 00:00:23.821 of, um, reducing to one supplier and building a deep relationship and have 00:00:23.821 --> 00:00:26.431 that long-term trust and loyalty. 00:00:27.151 --> 00:00:30.001 And that kinda sparked something in a few of you. 00:00:30.391 --> 00:00:32.101 So it's a lot of fun. 00:00:32.521 --> 00:00:33.301 Uh, you know. 00:00:33.706 --> 00:00:39.796 I've also learned that, uh, when, when there, uh, it's not necessarily 00:00:39.796 --> 00:00:44.776 a controversy, but when you guys wanna kind of banter on some of the topics, 00:00:45.076 --> 00:00:47.056 you do it to me personally, right? 00:00:47.086 --> 00:00:51.586 So it's not on social media, it's not on LinkedIn, it's not on any of the posts. 00:00:52.006 --> 00:00:54.826 Um, you send me a note, which is I love that. 00:00:54.856 --> 00:00:55.636 I think it's perfect. 00:00:55.636 --> 00:00:59.686 And I, and I reflect on that a little bit and I always wonder 00:00:59.686 --> 00:01:02.356 about the, the folks who. 00:01:02.851 --> 00:01:03.961 That we know, right? 00:01:04.141 --> 00:01:06.991 Let's, let's use Trump and Elon. 00:01:07.501 --> 00:01:15.211 Uh, when they, they had a falling out over Twitter or X, sorry, I should say X. 00:01:15.661 --> 00:01:23.131 Um, and it's very interesting to me to to think about would I ever have those 00:01:23.131 --> 00:01:28.381 types of words or that type of say, argument or discussion with somebody. 00:01:29.431 --> 00:01:34.321 On a public forum so everybody can watch and then have it, have it 00:01:34.321 --> 00:01:37.471 just go down into name calling. 00:01:37.471 --> 00:01:39.631 And this is very interesting. 00:01:39.991 --> 00:01:44.971 So anyway, I'm not saying that you guys, or I am, we're devolving into 00:01:44.971 --> 00:01:46.951 our conversations in the name calling. 00:01:47.611 --> 00:01:49.981 Um, but it is fun to hear from you. 00:01:49.981 --> 00:01:54.691 So keep sending me notes, keep, uh, giving me, um, some insights 00:01:54.691 --> 00:01:55.771 into how you're thinking. 00:01:56.251 --> 00:01:56.671 Um. 00:01:57.376 --> 00:02:00.706 I think all of your points are valid. 00:02:00.706 --> 00:02:07.426 So, uh, a lot of you are, well, some of you are confirming, uh, some of 00:02:07.426 --> 00:02:09.106 you are, have a little bit of yeah. 00:02:09.106 --> 00:02:09.616 Buts. 00:02:09.946 --> 00:02:15.406 And then there was one or two of you that were very adamant that tend to disagree 00:02:15.886 --> 00:02:18.016 with the concept of a single supplier. 00:02:18.016 --> 00:02:19.786 And, and you had lots of examples. 00:02:20.296 --> 00:02:23.446 Um, and we've had, we have recent examples, right, with uh. 00:02:23.926 --> 00:02:30.016 With the COVID, um, supply chain issues, uh, the recent, uh, turmoil 00:02:30.016 --> 00:02:37.396 that we have now, um, is an output, an outcome of a lot of that happened 00:02:37.396 --> 00:02:42.796 in 2020 with, uh, the supply chain issues that we had, mostly with China. 00:02:43.396 --> 00:02:46.606 Um, and what does that mean to Reshore? 00:02:47.731 --> 00:02:48.781 How do we reshore? 00:02:48.781 --> 00:02:51.301 How do we get more supply chain locally? 00:02:51.481 --> 00:02:52.921 How do we get more fault tolerance? 00:02:52.921 --> 00:02:57.631 So I agree with all of that, and I think it's a fun point discussion to 00:02:57.631 --> 00:03:02.731 say that everything that we talk about, there is a dichotomy to everything. 00:03:03.121 --> 00:03:06.031 So our world is full of a dichotomy. 00:03:06.631 --> 00:03:09.811 We could say at one hand, our principle is this. 00:03:10.786 --> 00:03:13.636 But on the other hand, it's also this, right? 00:03:13.636 --> 00:03:14.686 The yin and the yang. 00:03:15.136 --> 00:03:18.676 And those two things could be true at the same time. 00:03:19.666 --> 00:03:23.686 And uh, and going back to what we were talking about the last couple times 00:03:23.896 --> 00:03:29.896 is just provocative thoughts, thinking contr, uh, contrarian thoughts, right? 00:03:30.676 --> 00:03:34.246 All of those things are part of us. 00:03:34.996 --> 00:03:35.596 Um. 00:03:36.211 --> 00:03:40.411 Not just being robots in what we're taught, not taking our MBA, 00:03:40.441 --> 00:03:45.751 not taking, uh, the status quo, the established ways of doing 00:03:45.751 --> 00:03:48.781 things and just doing it that way. 00:03:48.841 --> 00:03:49.141 Right? 00:03:49.141 --> 00:03:54.481 This, what I'm after is for us to think a little differently for, we may come to a 00:03:54.481 --> 00:04:00.451 similar or the same conclusion as what we would say the established traditional way. 00:04:00.871 --> 00:04:04.501 Um, but the way we get there is different. 00:04:05.101 --> 00:04:06.391 Our thinking is different. 00:04:06.391 --> 00:04:07.561 That's, that's the whole point. 00:04:08.071 --> 00:04:14.551 Um, so, uh, is Deming correct in saying that, uh, we should end 00:04:14.551 --> 00:04:18.421 the practice of wording business on the basis of the price tag? 00:04:19.471 --> 00:04:20.401 Well, you tell me. 00:04:20.671 --> 00:04:21.361 You tell me. 00:04:21.901 --> 00:04:26.701 You are in business, you have customers. 00:04:27.361 --> 00:04:31.891 And if your customers say, Hmm, too expensive for me. 00:04:33.526 --> 00:04:35.536 Could you cut that by 20%? 00:04:35.806 --> 00:04:37.426 Could you cut it by 30%? 00:04:37.666 --> 00:04:38.986 What are you going to say? 00:04:40.306 --> 00:04:41.506 What are you going to say? 00:04:43.066 --> 00:04:47.566 I think you'll say, geez, let's not just look at it at the price point. 00:04:47.956 --> 00:04:50.956 Let's look at these other factors that we provide. 00:04:50.956 --> 00:04:53.536 Let's look at the value we bring. 00:04:54.016 --> 00:04:54.286 Right? 00:04:54.616 --> 00:04:56.326 So Deming is correct in that. 00:04:56.446 --> 00:05:00.196 And then the follow on to that is instead of. 00:05:01.066 --> 00:05:02.686 On basis of price tag. 00:05:02.716 --> 00:05:08.296 On price, let's maximize total cost, which is moving toward a 00:05:08.296 --> 00:05:10.966 single supplier for any one item. 00:05:11.596 --> 00:05:11.926 Right? 00:05:12.226 --> 00:05:13.636 Build that relationship. 00:05:13.636 --> 00:05:15.796 Build long term loyalty and trust. 00:05:16.216 --> 00:05:21.706 So does that mean that we could have some risk? 00:05:21.946 --> 00:05:23.506 Yeah, we talked about that last time. 00:05:23.506 --> 00:05:28.006 We could, we could incur, incur some risk by doing that. 00:05:28.516 --> 00:05:28.936 Um. 00:05:30.271 --> 00:05:34.351 When we talk about the unknown unknowns and the unknowables and 00:05:34.351 --> 00:05:39.751 the data with all of that, um, that still applies to all of this, right? 00:05:40.051 --> 00:05:42.151 So anyway, I think that's very interesting. 00:05:42.151 --> 00:05:43.291 The dichotomy's good. 00:05:43.651 --> 00:05:50.011 Um, somebody mentioned to me the, uh, the, um, uh, a set of books. 00:05:50.011 --> 00:05:53.911 Now, Brandon, who normally does the, the tag team with me, 00:05:53.941 --> 00:05:55.291 you guys all know who he is. 00:05:55.351 --> 00:05:57.931 He suggested to me and I, I have these books. 00:05:58.636 --> 00:06:04.726 It's basically the, um, uh, the great mental models by Shane Parrish. 00:06:05.386 --> 00:06:08.896 And, um, so there's four books in there. 00:06:08.986 --> 00:06:12.556 And so somebody even mentioned that, um, Shane Parrish mentions, 00:06:13.036 --> 00:06:14.536 um, what did he call it? 00:06:14.536 --> 00:06:16.376 They call it interdependence in one of the books. 00:06:17.281 --> 00:06:19.561 Um, and so I thought I went through it. 00:06:19.561 --> 00:06:20.071 And you know what? 00:06:20.071 --> 00:06:22.711 I've had these books forever and I've never read 'em. 00:06:23.161 --> 00:06:24.391 I'm a little bit like my dad. 00:06:24.391 --> 00:06:27.271 I just buy a bunch of things and then I keep 'em in a box 00:06:27.811 --> 00:06:28.681 and then I never read 'em. 00:06:28.831 --> 00:06:30.361 No, that's a shout out to dad. 00:06:30.631 --> 00:06:34.441 So anyway, this one's called, this one's, uh, the fourth Volume, and 00:06:34.441 --> 00:06:36.331 it's around the economics section. 00:06:37.381 --> 00:06:40.501 And so there's a part in here about interdependence, which somebody 00:06:40.501 --> 00:06:43.111 mentioned that said, Hey, some of the things that you're talking 00:06:43.111 --> 00:06:45.481 about are some of the things that Shane Perish was talking about. 00:06:45.856 --> 00:06:48.646 So open it up and was taking a look at it. 00:06:48.706 --> 00:06:54.376 Um, very interesting because, um, it's probably that chapter, it's very 00:06:54.376 --> 00:06:56.836 concise writing, very, very cool. 00:06:56.836 --> 00:07:03.976 If you haven't picked it up, um, it's a good, it's a good little, um, set of books 00:07:03.976 --> 00:07:09.826 instead of principles that are fun to read, especially for, um, maybe for some 00:07:09.826 --> 00:07:12.946 of us might be, these might be like, duh. 00:07:13.816 --> 00:07:17.326 We've read these and we know these, but there's some cool things in here around, 00:07:17.386 --> 00:07:21.856 um, um, physics and chemistry, biology. 00:07:22.066 --> 00:07:24.646 Um, it is just, it's just fun. 00:07:24.856 --> 00:07:29.776 Anyway, uh, the interdependence is probably five, six pages. 00:07:29.776 --> 00:07:32.776 It's not very long, but when you read through it, when I read 00:07:32.776 --> 00:07:37.306 through it, um, it states everything that Deming's talking about. 00:07:37.846 --> 00:07:42.051 So, um, not gonna name names, but the person that sent me that I think was. 00:07:42.976 --> 00:07:47.386 Using it as a counter to Deming and I'll, I'll need to follow up with you and, 00:07:47.386 --> 00:07:48.796 and make sure that I'm right in that. 00:07:49.186 --> 00:07:54.226 Um, but, and there are, there is, he does state the dichotomy in there for sure. 00:07:54.676 --> 00:07:57.796 Um, but by the time you get to the end, it's the same. 00:07:57.796 --> 00:07:59.296 He's saying the same thing as Deming. 00:07:59.836 --> 00:08:01.636 Um, so I want to talk through that a little bit. 00:08:02.086 --> 00:08:06.286 Um, and then there's an also cool, there's another cool thing 00:08:06.286 --> 00:08:09.781 in here called I Pencil, which is an essay that was written in 58. 00:08:10.651 --> 00:08:10.871 Uh. 00:08:11.881 --> 00:08:14.461 Which I'd never heard of before, and it's a, it's really cool. 00:08:14.851 --> 00:08:19.531 So anyway, I wanted to read some of the things that are in here, um, and. 00:08:21.196 --> 00:08:23.026 Really what, what he's getting at. 00:08:23.026 --> 00:08:25.636 And he's just summarizing known principles. 00:08:25.636 --> 00:08:27.106 He's not reinventing anything. 00:08:27.106 --> 00:08:28.906 It's not an invention of things. 00:08:29.266 --> 00:08:32.746 It's a great, it's got great, uh, references, bibliography. 00:08:33.196 --> 00:08:35.926 Um, so anyway, he's, this is just the introduction. 00:08:35.926 --> 00:08:39.346 It says specialization leads to interdependence, which is 00:08:39.376 --> 00:08:40.726 exactly what we just talked about. 00:08:41.236 --> 00:08:46.396 Um, a supplier for each item for one item, right? 00:08:46.636 --> 00:08:47.866 That's specialization. 00:08:47.986 --> 00:08:49.306 And if we get a deep. 00:08:49.756 --> 00:08:51.316 Um, specialization. 00:08:51.946 --> 00:09:02.356 Um, then in order to, um, survive, you have to have multiple businesses, multiple 00:09:02.356 --> 00:09:06.881 specializations within your ecosystem, right, because you can't do it all. 00:09:08.086 --> 00:09:14.086 Um, and, uh, so I'm gonna read this, the more specialized an individual 00:09:14.266 --> 00:09:19.786 company, company, nation, or other, or any other group, is the 00:09:19.786 --> 00:09:24.706 more reliant it must be on other specialists in order to meet its needs. 00:09:25.006 --> 00:09:25.276 Right? 00:09:25.846 --> 00:09:27.706 We can't do everything on our own. 00:09:28.666 --> 00:09:29.596 Yeah, exactly. 00:09:29.806 --> 00:09:33.016 And I think that it speaks exactly into Deming's. 00:09:33.856 --> 00:09:37.726 Uh, SOPK, which is the awareness of the system, is that we're all 00:09:37.726 --> 00:09:41.806 intertwined, interconnected, which is what this whole chapter is 00:09:41.806 --> 00:09:43.486 called, it's called interdependence. 00:09:43.816 --> 00:09:48.496 So because we're specialized, we are therefore interdependent. 00:09:49.036 --> 00:09:52.306 And so, um, again, just kinda repeat myself. 00:09:53.161 --> 00:09:57.751 When we have, when we have an awareness of the system and we understand 00:09:57.781 --> 00:10:02.521 the interdependence between us and our competitors and our suppliers 00:10:03.061 --> 00:10:07.981 and the world economy, the world supply chain, the government, right? 00:10:07.981 --> 00:10:12.301 All those things that are around us, um, we have better insight 00:10:12.301 --> 00:10:15.036 into how to make decisions and why. 00:10:15.811 --> 00:10:19.321 Things are happening and how to make different processes to be 00:10:19.321 --> 00:10:23.041 able to handle those different, what we would call imposed inputs. 00:10:23.431 --> 00:10:25.141 Those are things we can't control, right? 00:10:25.141 --> 00:10:27.781 The imposed inputs, they're, they're forced on us. 00:10:28.201 --> 00:10:31.081 Um, and we have to deal with them, but we build our processes 00:10:31.081 --> 00:10:32.461 around those constraints. 00:10:32.461 --> 00:10:35.341 Like just like when we talk about with the theory of constraints, 00:10:35.371 --> 00:10:36.991 which is also awesome theory. 00:10:37.471 --> 00:10:43.171 So, um, then he mentions the eye pencil, which I had never heard of, um, essay. 00:10:43.741 --> 00:10:44.826 Um, and then. 00:10:45.706 --> 00:10:47.296 Uh, I'm gonna read this too. 00:10:47.686 --> 00:10:53.326 So, even such a simple device involves numerous specialists. 00:10:54.106 --> 00:11:00.766 So, um, there's loggers to harvest the wood workers in a sawmill to cut it. 00:11:01.366 --> 00:11:05.296 Designers of machines used to work on the wood, so on and 00:11:05.296 --> 00:11:06.616 so on, and so on and so on. 00:11:07.216 --> 00:11:10.606 Um, and it's a very, uh, very fun topic. 00:11:10.606 --> 00:11:11.776 I think it's a fun topic. 00:11:12.166 --> 00:11:14.776 Uh, so I pulled up, um. 00:11:15.526 --> 00:11:17.806 The essay and you can just search for it. 00:11:17.806 --> 00:11:21.676 It's called I comma pencil, meaning my name is pencil. 00:11:22.036 --> 00:11:26.176 And it just, it's, it reads as, he writes it as my family tree. 00:11:26.236 --> 00:11:26.446 Right. 00:11:27.346 --> 00:11:31.246 Uh, kind of a play on words and everything, but, and it's his genealogy 00:11:31.246 --> 00:11:33.436 of how he exists and everything. 00:11:33.526 --> 00:11:38.356 And I highlighted this as, um, 'cause we've talked about this before, is 00:11:38.656 --> 00:11:44.236 I have a profound lesson to teach because I am seemingly so simple. 00:11:45.481 --> 00:11:47.491 And then it says, simple, simple. 00:11:48.571 --> 00:11:52.741 Yet not a single person on the face of this earth knows how to make me. 00:11:53.941 --> 00:11:55.711 This sounds fantastic, doesn't it? 00:11:56.371 --> 00:12:01.711 Especially when it is realized that there are about one and one and a half billion 00:12:02.521 --> 00:12:05.731 of my kind produced in the US every year. 00:12:05.761 --> 00:12:08.521 And this was written in in 1958, right? 00:12:09.121 --> 00:12:13.801 So, um, this is another thing that we have. 00:12:14.701 --> 00:12:18.661 Uh, around simplicity and things that we were just talking about before, 00:12:19.681 --> 00:12:26.641 which is the quality that we have when something is, is, and I'll go into the 00:12:26.641 --> 00:12:32.941 software world when we build something, um, from a software perspective. 00:12:34.036 --> 00:12:37.786 Of course there's the code, um, there's the tech debt, there's the 00:12:37.786 --> 00:12:41.116 data, there's all the thing, there's the architecture underneath all of 00:12:41.116 --> 00:12:42.736 those things, those are all hidden. 00:12:43.426 --> 00:12:44.746 You don't know what those are. 00:12:44.746 --> 00:12:47.896 You don't understand the quality of that, but you understand 00:12:47.896 --> 00:12:49.666 the quality of the interaction. 00:12:49.936 --> 00:12:56.236 And so when you interact with a piece of software, um, you have 00:12:56.236 --> 00:12:58.786 an understanding of its quality. 00:12:59.536 --> 00:12:59.836 Right. 00:13:00.316 --> 00:13:05.986 Um, and at this point in time in, in our world of software development and product 00:13:05.986 --> 00:13:09.496 development is we don't tolerate errors. 00:13:09.946 --> 00:13:16.756 So maybe 20 years ago, or maybe even 15 years ago, if something failed, 00:13:17.356 --> 00:13:21.766 meaning you got an error or it didn't quite load right, or, um, maybe 00:13:21.766 --> 00:13:24.856 it did something you didn't quite expect, and you're a little confused. 00:13:25.726 --> 00:13:28.636 Uh, we tended to tolerate those things a little, a little more. 00:13:28.636 --> 00:13:31.546 'cause that's just what, what the environment was Today, we're in a 00:13:31.546 --> 00:13:37.396 much more mature and commoditized software environment that if 00:13:37.396 --> 00:13:42.076 anything failed in that way, it, it, nobody's going to tolerate that. 00:13:42.526 --> 00:13:44.596 And, uh, and you'll lose customers. 00:13:45.001 --> 00:13:45.301 Right. 00:13:45.601 --> 00:13:51.811 So that whole interaction design is super important in today's world. 00:13:52.111 --> 00:13:56.671 If you're building software products, um, because the customer has low 00:13:56.671 --> 00:13:58.111 tolerance, it's a, it's a commodity. 00:13:58.111 --> 00:13:58.951 They expect it to work. 00:13:59.191 --> 00:14:02.701 If you grabbed a pencil, right, I still use pencils. 00:14:02.701 --> 00:14:03.091 Look at that. 00:14:03.661 --> 00:14:09.991 Um, if, if I grabbed this pencil and it broke in my hand or wouldn't 00:14:09.991 --> 00:14:14.101 sharpen, or, uh, it wouldn't write, um. 00:14:14.881 --> 00:14:18.781 And, uh, and it was not useful to me immediately. 00:14:18.781 --> 00:14:22.621 Like as soon as I went to ride, use it, uh, I would throw it away. 00:14:22.621 --> 00:14:24.181 I have no tolerance for it, right? 00:14:24.481 --> 00:14:26.221 Because I expect this to work. 00:14:26.251 --> 00:14:27.181 It's a commodity. 00:14:27.631 --> 00:14:33.631 And 30 years ago, 50 years ago, it was still a commodity, right? 00:14:33.631 --> 00:14:34.951 We expected it to work. 00:14:35.551 --> 00:14:42.901 Um, so anyway, with when we have the interaction design, um, we're, we're. 00:14:43.231 --> 00:14:47.731 We have such a high threshold of Toler, a low threshold of tolerance 00:14:48.061 --> 00:14:52.501 that, uh, quality is expected, right? 00:14:52.951 --> 00:14:58.471 So anyway, it's something interesting to be thinking about and uh, when 00:14:58.501 --> 00:15:02.371 we talk about the simple solution. 00:15:04.351 --> 00:15:05.911 'cause in the eye pencil, right? 00:15:05.911 --> 00:15:07.891 He's talking about it's being simple. 00:15:07.981 --> 00:15:10.651 I am simple, but seemingly I'm not. 00:15:11.431 --> 00:15:13.351 That is when you have high quality. 00:15:13.741 --> 00:15:15.451 That's, that's kind of the litmus test. 00:15:15.691 --> 00:15:21.211 So going back to the software piece is, uh, when we use Google, and 00:15:21.211 --> 00:15:24.961 you've heard me use this example many times, but when you go into Google. 00:15:26.086 --> 00:15:28.276 Now we don't really go to Google anymore. 00:15:28.276 --> 00:15:31.756 We just type into the browser and type what we're looking for, right? 00:15:32.536 --> 00:15:33.166 Our search. 00:15:33.406 --> 00:15:38.686 But at one point, Google had, you went to the google.com, 00:15:38.776 --> 00:15:39.076 right? 00:15:39.136 --> 00:15:43.036 And there was one input box, and then you would type in there, whatever you're 00:15:43.036 --> 00:15:44.416 looking for, and then you hit enter. 00:15:45.616 --> 00:15:47.206 That is simple, right? 00:15:47.296 --> 00:15:49.426 Seemingly simple what's underneath there. 00:15:50.026 --> 00:15:54.616 And uh, kind of from the pencil's perspective, all the things it took. 00:15:55.021 --> 00:15:59.431 To be able for you to just type, uh, what were the, what was the Bengal 00:15:59.431 --> 00:16:04.531 score from last weekend for it to go find all that information, pull all 00:16:04.531 --> 00:16:08.521 that data, do all the algorithms, put it all up, and then bring you, 00:16:09.031 --> 00:16:16.051 uh, five pages of HTML, um, documents that you could go look it up, right? 00:16:16.051 --> 00:16:18.391 Websites that you could go look at that information. 00:16:18.601 --> 00:16:21.571 Super, super complex, super complex. 00:16:22.036 --> 00:16:22.786 But it's simple. 00:16:23.446 --> 00:16:25.246 And that means high quality. 00:16:25.516 --> 00:16:26.506 That is high quality. 00:16:26.806 --> 00:16:27.651 So when we're building. 00:16:28.576 --> 00:16:34.576 Anything physical, manufacturing, uh, hardware or, uh, fasteners, 00:16:34.606 --> 00:16:36.616 screws, anything like that. 00:16:36.916 --> 00:16:39.106 Quality is based on the simplicity. 00:16:39.226 --> 00:16:41.356 The customer just assumes it works. 00:16:41.806 --> 00:16:45.196 The customer just assumes that, oh yeah, that's easy to make. 00:16:45.226 --> 00:16:47.356 Like how hard could it be to make a screw, right? 00:16:47.356 --> 00:16:49.036 And all of those things. 00:16:49.036 --> 00:16:50.656 That's, that's what we're looking for. 00:16:51.016 --> 00:16:54.256 That is, uh, that's what the whole pencil thing is all about. 00:16:54.646 --> 00:16:56.836 So anyway, I would encourage you to go read it. 00:16:57.241 --> 00:16:58.171 Very interesting. 00:16:58.741 --> 00:17:04.411 Um, and really in the end, the whole, the whole, um, premise, the whole, 00:17:05.011 --> 00:17:11.551 um, moral to the story is just about, um, how free markets work, right? 00:17:11.611 --> 00:17:17.131 Open markets and the need to have specialized interdependence in a 00:17:17.131 --> 00:17:23.161 market in order to build and innovate and seemingly create simple things. 00:17:23.431 --> 00:17:24.481 So lots of fun. 00:17:24.901 --> 00:17:26.791 Um, there's a couple of things else I wanted to. 00:17:27.511 --> 00:17:32.251 Talk about is there's a quote inside, um, uh, Shane's book here. 00:17:32.731 --> 00:17:34.111 And so I wrote these down. 00:17:34.651 --> 00:17:38.131 Uh, when everything works, interdependence works well. 00:17:39.151 --> 00:17:44.911 When things don't go as planned, however, interdependence starts to shut everything 00:17:44.911 --> 00:17:47.311 down, which is, we saw that, right? 00:17:47.611 --> 00:17:51.571 Um, and he wrote these books in 24, so he already had the experience of the 00:17:51.571 --> 00:17:54.571 2020 stuff, but it's very common, right? 00:17:54.601 --> 00:17:56.671 I mean, it, it makes logical sense. 00:17:57.706 --> 00:18:01.216 So, um, does that mean that we can't be interdependent 00:18:01.216 --> 00:18:02.416 and we shouldn't specialize? 00:18:04.066 --> 00:18:05.116 Well, there's risk. 00:18:05.266 --> 00:18:06.286 There's risk with everything. 00:18:06.766 --> 00:18:08.176 Um, and that's the dichotomy. 00:18:08.206 --> 00:18:09.076 That's the dichotomy. 00:18:09.496 --> 00:18:13.426 Um, one other thing that, uh, that I thought was interesting, and I'm gonna 00:18:13.426 --> 00:18:19.396 read this too 'cause this kind of lays out the unknown unknowables that 00:18:19.396 --> 00:18:22.186 we had talked about, um, previously. 00:18:22.876 --> 00:18:23.506 Um. 00:18:26.131 --> 00:18:28.591 Actually, there's one other thing too in here I'm gonna read too. 00:18:29.101 --> 00:18:33.181 Uh, so he's talking about how oil prices went down in the thirties because 00:18:33.181 --> 00:18:37.861 there was a, there was a gluttony of oil wells and uh, the oil was gushing. 00:18:37.981 --> 00:18:43.801 And then, so this kind of shows the interdependency of all the things 00:18:43.801 --> 00:18:45.811 that we were just talking about and. 00:18:46.486 --> 00:18:49.276 When we read it out loud, we, it's a big duh. 00:18:49.396 --> 00:18:49.756 Of course. 00:18:49.756 --> 00:18:50.296 Yeah, yeah. 00:18:50.296 --> 00:18:51.016 That happens. 00:18:51.436 --> 00:18:56.266 Um, but when we're in our businesses and we're trying to consider what's 00:18:56.266 --> 00:19:02.236 going on and why are we getting weird results and, uh, how do we, how do 00:19:02.236 --> 00:19:06.826 we move here or how do we innovate or how do we get more efficient and those 00:19:06.826 --> 00:19:12.826 kinds of things, you really do have to start to look out and look at the big 00:19:12.826 --> 00:19:14.686 picture and see how things are connected. 00:19:16.066 --> 00:19:21.016 And that will give you more foresight, more insight, more 00:19:21.016 --> 00:19:23.056 foresight, more insight, right? 00:19:23.056 --> 00:19:25.966 You get to iterate on all of that, and then you come to, 00:19:26.266 --> 00:19:27.886 hopefully to a better solution. 00:19:28.396 --> 00:19:32.176 Um, which again is just a theory, and then you get to take those 00:19:32.176 --> 00:19:33.436 theories and see what you can do. 00:19:33.436 --> 00:19:36.796 So anyway, so first, oil prices went down all over. 00:19:37.516 --> 00:19:41.536 And because none of us collected and refine our own oil, there was 00:19:41.536 --> 00:19:43.666 widespread reaction to the windfall. 00:19:44.206 --> 00:19:49.336 That our dependency created homes started to heat with oil instead of coal. 00:19:50.326 --> 00:19:50.746 Great. 00:19:51.046 --> 00:19:52.426 Because it's cheaper, right? 00:19:52.666 --> 00:19:57.076 But then employment and coal mines fell and the price of steel. 00:19:57.421 --> 00:20:02.821 Went up as because, because coal became more expensive, right? 00:20:02.851 --> 00:20:03.931 'cause coal was going down. 00:20:04.441 --> 00:20:09.751 We drove our cars more railway usage declined highways grew. 00:20:10.051 --> 00:20:12.781 Towns caught in the wrong location. 00:20:13.306 --> 00:20:18.736 Or dependent on the wrong resources, stagnated or died out while other 00:20:18.736 --> 00:20:25.606 towns boomed new oil product, new oil produced effects that cascaded 00:20:25.606 --> 00:20:28.066 far outside the oil industry. 00:20:28.636 --> 00:20:32.686 This is exactly what Demming was talking about when, um, when we were 00:20:32.686 --> 00:20:34.936 talking about the the seven deadly sins. 00:20:35.596 --> 00:20:41.836 And when manages management focuses only on visible figures, he says 00:20:41.836 --> 00:20:42.856 it in a slightly different way. 00:20:42.856 --> 00:20:50.506 He says, uh, he says, management, uh, by use only of visible figures alone. 00:20:50.506 --> 00:20:51.226 Something like that. 00:20:51.406 --> 00:20:53.806 He kind of turns all the words around, right? 00:20:53.806 --> 00:20:57.856 And then he goes on to say, with little or no consideration of the 00:20:57.856 --> 00:21:03.256 figures, meaning the numbers, the data that is known, unknown or unknowable. 00:21:04.036 --> 00:21:07.756 Is exactly, this is a great example of that, right? 00:21:08.176 --> 00:21:12.496 Is uh, we look at the oil, we look at oil production, but the 00:21:12.496 --> 00:21:14.296 cascading effects around that. 00:21:14.296 --> 00:21:18.706 And we're not, we're not worried about the economics of things in our business. 00:21:19.036 --> 00:21:23.416 Those things will go on our own, but there are consequences of having more 00:21:23.416 --> 00:21:27.976 production in outside our own business to do this and what effects that's 00:21:27.976 --> 00:21:31.726 going to have either for our own suppliers or for our own businesses. 00:21:32.536 --> 00:21:32.986 Um. 00:21:35.281 --> 00:21:39.391 Uh, yeah, so anyway, that, that's, that's what I wanted to talk about. 00:21:39.391 --> 00:21:46.831 There's one last part in here, um, that is also very interesting here. 00:21:47.071 --> 00:21:53.731 Um, so interdependence isn't just a macro concept, it's deeply personal. 00:21:54.001 --> 00:21:57.931 We're all independent with our families, our friends, our communities. 00:21:58.291 --> 00:22:01.976 We rely on one another for support, for love, for meaning. 00:22:02.656 --> 00:22:05.836 And interdependence is the fabric of our social lives. 00:22:06.916 --> 00:22:11.536 Um, he also says, interdependence can be both a vulnerability and a strength. 00:22:11.866 --> 00:22:16.216 So the dichotomy of the world for us to be thinking and to be aware 00:22:16.216 --> 00:22:19.516 of these things, we understand that there's lots of variables. 00:22:19.726 --> 00:22:21.526 How do we reduce our variables? 00:22:21.766 --> 00:22:22.996 How do we create theories? 00:22:22.996 --> 00:22:27.886 How do we go and learn and be aware that there are unknowables. 00:22:28.771 --> 00:22:32.941 Unknown data, unknowables things we'll never know, right? 00:22:32.971 --> 00:22:38.011 That are very hard to, to understand the cascading effects, um, rather 00:22:38.011 --> 00:22:41.551 than just relying as Deming says, on visible figures alone.