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This is Market Pulse — Monday's Numbers Oil Markets • WTI: $59.58 (down 0.84% from Friday)
• Brent: $63.04 (down 1.12%)
• WTI-Brent spread: $3.46
• Pulled back slightly after approaching two-week highs
• Geopolitical tensions and Fed rate cut expectations continue to support market
WTI Technical Analysis • Trading within ascending channel
• Recently pulled back from swing high of $60.51 per barrel
• Consolidating around mid-channel area
• Key Fibonacci support levels: $59.65 (38.2%), $59.39 (50%), $59.13 (61.8%)
• 100-day SMA above 200-day SMA (indicating upward trend)
• Stochastic and RSI near midpoint (balanced momentum, room to climb before overbought)
Geopolitical Risks • Ukraine-Russia tensions remain elevated
• Ukraine targeted Rosneft refineries
• Russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure (widespread power outages)
• Putin rejected parts of US-backed peace deal
• Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar: Brent expected to trade between $60-$65 per barrel
• Oversupply concerns if Russian oil flows circumvent sanctions (could drive prices toward $60 through 2026)
Federal Reserve & Market Expectations • 84% chance of quarter-point rate cut this week
• Could lift economic growth and energy demand
• Market awaiting monthly reports from EIA, IEA, and OPEC
• Crude oil expected at $60.51 by quarter end, $66.50 in 12 months
• WTI supported by geopolitical uncertainty and accommodative monetary policy expectations
• Oversupply risks and subdued demand continue to cap gains
Natural Gas Markets • Henry Hub: $5.07 (down 4.12% from Friday)
• Up 16.90% over past month
• Up 59.37% year-over-year
• Surged above $5 per MMBtu for first time since 2022
• Prices increased over 70% since mid-October
Natural Gas Drivers • Coldest December since 2010
• Increased usage by households and businesses
• Colder-than-normal temperatures across much of country
• Polar vortex tightening market, accelerating heating demand
• Midsection prices higher as cold conditions linger
LNG Exports & Supply • Record LNG exports in November: 10.9 million metric tons
• Tightening US supply during peak usage
• Europe absorbed roughly 70% of US LNG shipments
• UAE planning to expand LNG exports for global demand
• NextEra Energy Resources acquiring Symmetry Energy Solutions (Q1 2026 close)
• Analysts suggest: Coterra Energy, Cheniere Energy, Williams Companies
• Natural gas expected at $4.87 by quarter end, $5.95 in 12 months
• Extreme winter weather + record LNG exports + tight supply = multi-year high prices
Real Estate Markets • Property transactions predicted to hold steady at ~1.15 million in 2026
• Modest house price growth expected in 2026 (tempered by tax and policy factors)
• Hamptons anticipates 2.5% price rise across Great Britain by end of 2026
• Momentum shifting northwards: North West and West Midlands predicted to surpass London by 2027
Mortgage Rates & Confidence • 30-year fixed mortgage: 6.2-6.3%
• 15-year fixed mortgage: 5.5-5.6%
• Falling rates anticipated to boost confidence
• Easing inflation should contribute to increased confidence
• Tax pressures and policy shifts expected to limit recovery
• Increase in taxes on property income may reduce supply of new rental properties
• Market remains sensitive to broader economic conditions
Regional Real Estate Highlights • Phoenix, AZ: Median sale price ~$449,500, signs of softening, half of listings with price reductions, rising inventory but stable demand in price-sensitive segments
• Vancouver: Challenging November 2025 (declining sales, high inventory, decreasing prices), average Canadian rent down 2.2% year-over-year, Vancouver rent down 7.4% year-over-year
• UK: Property values up only 0.7% year-over-year (Halifax House Price Index, November)
Credit Markets • SOFR: 3.92% (December 4, 2025)
• Down from 3.95% previous day
• Higher than long-term average of 1.89%
• Lower than one year ago (4.64%)
• SOFR = broad measure of cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities
• Calculated as volume-weighted median of tri-party repo data, GCF repo data, bilateral Treasury repo transactions
• Published by New York Federal Reserve, used as benchmark for other debt transactions
Credit Market Outlook • Fed monetary policy stance remains key driver
• 84% chance of quarter-point rate cut at upcoming Fed meeting
• Could support credit market sentiment and lower borrowing costs
• Senior secured loans: SOFR plus 650 basis points, LTV under 65% remain target for institutional investors
Bottom Line • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. WTI down 0.84% to $59.58, Brent down 1.12% to $63.04. Trading within ascending channel, consolidating near mid-channel. Ukraine-Russia tensions elevated. Fed rate cut likely (84% chance). Analyst expects Brent $60-$65. Expected $60.51 by quarter end, $66.50 in 12 months.
• Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked. Down 4.12% to $5.07, up 16.90% over past month, up 59.37% year-over-year. Coldest December since 2010. Polar vortex tightening market. Record LNG exports (10.9M metric tons November). Europe absorbing 70% of US LNG. Expected $4.87 by quarter end, $5.95 in 12 months.
• Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs. Transactions predicted 1.15M in 2026. Hamptons anticipates 2.5% price rise across Great Britain by end 2026. Momentum shifting northwards. Mortgage rates 6.2-6.3% (30-year fixed). Phoenix median $449,500, half of listings with price reductions. Vancouver challenging with 7.4% rent drop year-over-year.
• Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%. SOFR at 3.92%, down from 3.95%. Higher than long-term average 1.89%. Fed rate cut likely this week (84% chance).
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