00:00:18:11 - 00:00:21:11 Welcome to another episode of the Mizuho Markets Mindset. 00:00:21:13 - 00:00:23:16 I'm here with my colleague, Rich Soto, today to 00:00:23:16 - 00:00:25:21 talk about the Japanese retail process and its 00:00:25:21 - 00:00:27:10 applicability to IPOs. 00:00:27:14 - 00:00:31:01 What exactly is a POWL listing and how is it 00:00:31:01 - 00:00:32:08 applicable to Japanese retail? 00:00:32:21 - 00:00:33:03 Yeah. 00:00:33:03 - 00:00:33:16 Great, Josh. 00:00:33:16 - 00:00:37:01 So Japanese POWL, or Public Offering Without Listing, 00:00:37:01 - 00:00:40:02 is a listing alternative in Japan that 00:00:40:02 - 00:00:43:13 allows U.S. IPO issuers to target Japanese retail 00:00:43:13 - 00:00:46:08 and institutional demand without actually 00:00:46:08 - 00:00:49:03 formally having a listing in Tokyo, 00:00:49:03 - 00:00:51:17 but being able to access both ultra-high-net-worth 00:00:51:17 - 00:00:54:00 and traditional retail in Japanese markets. 00:00:54:06 - 00:00:56:10 We hadn't seen these come up for the last 20 00:00:56:10 - 00:00:59:15 years, but recent changes allowed Japanese 00:00:59:15 - 00:01:02:11 investors to target U.S. offerings. 00:01:02:13 - 00:01:04:14 We've now seen two happen this year and we 00:01:04:14 - 00:01:05:23 expect many more to come. 00:01:06:12 - 00:01:07:22 Maybe Josh, do you want to talk a little bit 00:01:07:22 - 00:01:11:08 about what changes have led to these new POWLs 00:01:11:08 - 00:01:11:19 coming out? 00:01:11:20 - 00:01:12:03 Sure. 00:01:12:03 - 00:01:12:15 I think really the Japanese retail market over 00:01:12:15 - 00:01:16:08 I think really the Japanese retail market over 00:01:16:08 - 00:01:18:11 the last couple of years has evolved considerably. 00:01:19:03 - 00:01:21:15 Historically, there's about $15 trillion 00:01:21:15 - 00:01:23:03 of Japanese household wealth 00:01:23:03 - 00:01:25:11 and only 14% of that has been invested 00:01:25:11 - 00:01:26:13 in equities. 00:01:26:15 - 00:01:28:10 About half of that has been sitting in cash. 00:01:29:00 - 00:01:32:01 And several years back, and really a change made in 00:01:32:01 - 00:01:35:05 2024 by the Japanese regulatory authority, 00:01:35:13 - 00:01:37:22 allowed what's called a NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account), 00:01:37:22 - 00:01:41:05 which is based on a similar account system in the UK, which 00:01:41:05 - 00:01:44:03 effectively allows Japanese investors to invest 00:01:44:03 - 00:01:49:23 just north of $100,000 and have their capital 00:01:49:23 - 00:01:52:00 gains be deferred indefinitely. 00:01:52:02 - 00:01:54:11 The capital gains rate in Japan for individuals 00:01:54:11 - 00:01:57:12 is just north of 20%, and this allows them to 00:01:57:12 - 00:02:00:18 not have to pay capital gains for the foreseeable future. 00:02:00:18 - 00:02:04:01 And given that there's $15 trillion of Japanese 00:02:04:01 - 00:02:06:22 household wealth, every 1% increase represents 00:02:06:22 - 00:02:09:19 about $150 billion of incremental buying power 00:02:09:19 - 00:02:11:01 across global equities. 00:02:11:16 - 00:02:14:13 So being able to take that incremental demand 00:02:14:13 - 00:02:16:22 from Japanese retail and apply it into these big 00:02:16:22 - 00:02:19:20 U.S. IPOs is really attractive. 00:02:20:06 - 00:02:23:07 And that really has increased the appetite for 00:02:23:07 - 00:02:26:21 equities, not just in Japan, but on a more global basis. 00:02:27:04 - 00:02:30:13 And we're really excited about the opportunity to tap 00:02:30:13 - 00:02:33:20 this network of wealth and investors who 00:02:33:20 - 00:02:36:08 historically just have not participated as 00:02:36:08 - 00:02:38:17 heavily in the equities market. 00:02:38:20 - 00:02:40:03 So Rich, do you want to talk a little bit about 00:02:40:03 - 00:02:43:02 the POWL process and what it entails? 00:02:43:04 - 00:02:43:09 Yeah. 00:02:43:09 - 00:02:44:21 Look, Josh, we have it down to a science. 00:02:45:00 - 00:02:46:21 It's about a three-month process with the 00:02:46:21 - 00:02:49:09 Japanese regulator. The SRS document that gets 00:02:49:09 - 00:02:50:00 put together, 00:02:50:07 - 00:02:52:15 it’s essentially a translation of the S1. 00:02:52:23 - 00:02:55:20 We don't have to go through an extensive list of 00:02:55:20 - 00:02:57:07 demands from the Japanese regulators. 00:02:57:15 - 00:03:00:03 I think the one constraint is that you will have to, 00:03:00:03 - 00:03:03:02 as an issuer, put together all of your 10-Qs, 00:03:03:02 - 00:03:05:22 10-K equivalents with the Japanese regulator 00:03:05:22 - 00:03:07:06 for a period of five years. 00:03:07:06 - 00:03:09:13 Rich, you talked about the two transactions that 00:03:09:13 - 00:03:11:18 Mizuho has executed in 2026. 00:03:12:06 - 00:03:14:20 Maybe walk through each of those deals and what 00:03:14:20 - 00:03:17:15 was unique about those, and talk about some of the 00:03:17:15 - 00:03:20:03 metrics that were really interesting coming out 00:03:20:03 - 00:03:21:07 of both of those transactions. 00:03:21:19 - 00:03:25:10 So, Josh, Mizuho has been the only bank to do 00:03:25:10 - 00:03:27:16 POWLs in the last 20 years for U.S. offerings. 00:03:28:05 - 00:03:32:02 So first we did the PayPay IPO in March/April of this year. 00:03:32:07 - 00:03:34:23 That transaction ended up being about 15% of the 00:03:34:23 - 00:03:37:13 total allocations were to the Japanese POWL. 00:03:37:14 - 00:03:41:03 So about a billion dollar IPO, $150 million or so 00:03:41:03 - 00:03:43:22 of Japanese POWL demand allocated. 00:03:43:22 - 00:03:48:16 In SpaceX, largest IPO of all time, $2.2 billion 00:03:48:16 - 00:03:53:01 were allocated to Japan, about 3% of the base offering. 00:03:53:01 - 00:03:54:15 I think more importantly than that, 00:03:54:15 - 00:03:56:08 it's very high-quality retail. 00:03:56:08 - 00:03:59:00 So unlike some of the traditional retail, 00:03:59:00 - 00:04:01:06 the thinking around retail is that they tend to flip. 00:04:01:16 - 00:04:03:19 We have all the stats around the trading. 00:04:04:04 - 00:04:08:21 Only about 22% of the Japanese POWL has traded 00:04:08:21 - 00:04:10:21 through the first three days of SpaceX, just to 00:04:10:21 - 00:04:13:08 give you an idea, which just signifies it's not 00:04:13:08 - 00:04:15:17 like most retail that you see around the world. 00:04:15:19 - 00:04:19:03 It's very high-quality, ultra-high-net-worth-focused retail 00:04:19:03 - 00:04:20:06 that we're seeing out of Japan. 00:04:20:06 - 00:04:22:18 I think as we see more and more scaled IPOs, 00:04:22:19 - 00:04:24:14 and obviously there's a lot of rumors out there 00:04:24:14 - 00:04:27:08 about big deals coming in over the next year, 00:04:27:08 - 00:04:29:03 we expect more POWLs to happen. 00:04:29:09 - 00:04:31:04 I think Japanese investors are becoming more and 00:04:31:04 - 00:04:34:08 more familiar and used to investing in U.S. IPOs. 00:04:34:14 - 00:04:36:18 So Josh, what do you see for the future of 00:04:36:18 - 00:04:37:21 the POWL for these deals? 00:04:38:00 - 00:04:40:08 Who is the right issuer to potentially target 00:04:40:08 - 00:04:41:22 doing a POWL through Mizuho? 00:04:42:01 - 00:04:42:14 Sure, Rich. 00:04:42:19 - 00:04:44:18 I think one of the things that we're seeing is 00:04:44:18 - 00:04:47:23 as companies stay private for longer, the average 00:04:47:23 - 00:04:50:12 IPO size is increasing considerably. 00:04:50:12 - 00:04:53:11 We've seen more than 15 IPOs this year that are 00:04:53:11 - 00:04:55:07 a billion dollars or more in value. 00:04:55:22 - 00:04:59:09 We're seeing many deals that are $2 billion or more. 00:04:59:12 - 00:05:00:22 And if you look at the pipeline through the end 00:05:00:22 - 00:05:02:05 of the year, including some of those big 00:05:02:05 - 00:05:03:22 transactions that have been rumored that you 00:05:03:22 - 00:05:07:00 mentioned earlier, there's probably another dozen 00:05:07:00 - 00:05:09:10 or so $2 billion or more transactions. 00:05:09:14 - 00:05:12:11 And as companies think about attracting investors 00:05:12:11 - 00:05:14:12 on a global basis because they're raising such 00:05:14:12 - 00:05:17:07 large quantums of capital, I think that this has 00:05:17:07 - 00:05:18:12 incredible applicability. 00:05:18:23 - 00:05:21:05 Again, earlier I mentioned the amount of Japanese 00:05:21:05 - 00:05:23:13 household wealth that's sitting in cash right now 00:05:23:13 - 00:05:25:20 and their appetite to invest in global equities. 00:05:26:12 - 00:05:28:22 So we think this has incredible applicability as 00:05:28:22 - 00:05:31:20 we move forward and see a lot more jumbo IPOs 00:05:31:20 - 00:05:34:11 and the definition of jumbo IPOs in the U.S. 00:05:34:20 - 00:05:38:00 changes as these larger companies access the U.S. markets. 00:05:38:09 - 00:05:40:19 So thanks again for joining us today. 00:05:41:04 - 00:05:43:15 If you are interested in accessing the Japanese 00:05:43:15 - 00:05:46:09 retail market as part of a jumbo IPO, please 00:05:46:09 - 00:05:48:23 reach out to the Mizuho Equity Capital Markets 00:05:48:23 - 00:05:52:12 team, given our unique exposure and experience with the product.