Episode Title: Week-Ahead Briefing — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics
Episode Summary:
A crisp look at what could move markets this week: US CPI and BLS jobs revisions for the dollar, the ECB’s projections for the euro, OPEC+ signals for crude, and a busy geopolitical slate from the UN General Assembly to France’s no-confidence vote, plus fresh US–Japan trade measures and looming US chip tariffs.
Chapter Guide (no timestamps):
- FX setup for the week
- Commodities focus: OPEC+ and metals
- Tariffs & trade developments
- Geopolitics to watch
- Data & event calendar highlights
- What it all means
Key Takeaways
- Dollar drivers: US CPI (Thu) and BLS preliminary benchmark revisions (Tue) could reset the inflation and labor narrative; both are pivotal for near-term Fed expectations and USD positioning.
- Euro watch: ECB (Thu) is expected to hold rates; updated 2026 inflation projections and President Lagarde’s guidance matter more than the decision for EUR crosses.
- Oil swing factor: OPEC+ (Sun) may signal anything from a pause to a phased unwind of prior cuts; rhetoric emphasizes flexibility. Initial increments, if any, are likely to be small.
- Gold & metals: Gold stays firm into CPI; base metals balance better-than-feared China PMIs against still-soft domestic price momentum.
- Tariff tape: White House signals “substantial” chip tariffs “very shortly.” US–Japan trade order implemented (baseline 15% tariff on most Japanese imports; lower US auto tariffs expected to kick in within ~2 weeks; Japan to boost US rice buys). China adds anti-dumping duties on some US optical fibres.
- Geo risk: UNGA puts Iran and snapback sanctions in focus; France faces a likely no-confidence ouster of the PM; Ukraine diplomacy headlines continue; US–Japan–Korea joint exercises mid-month.
FX Outlook (What to listen for)
- USD: Sensitivity highest to CPI composition (core goods) and any labor trend re-marking from BLS revisions.
- EUR: ECB projections and press-conference tone to steer; watch any nod to fragmentation tools amid French politics.
- GBP: UK GDP (Fri) to confirm whether July slowed after Q2’s pace; sterling stays headline-sensitive.
- NOK/SEK: Norway CPI (Wed) sets the tone into Norges Bank; a steady core keeps NOK supported.
- JPY/CNY: Japan GDP (Mon) is secondary to US–Japan tariff mechanics; China CPI (Wed) near zero keeps CNY keyed to policy support headlines.
Commodities Focus
- Crude: OPEC+ meeting (Sun). Mixed signaling; a “small, flexible, phased” increase (if any) implies limited initial barrels. Russia notes no set agenda; Saudi reported to favour faster normalization—but optionality remains the theme.
- Gold: Firm into US CPI; notable resilience even on strong-USD days.
- Copper/Industrials: Tug-of-war between incremental China support and soft domestic prices.
Tariffs & Trade — What changed
- US–Japan: Order implemented; 15% baseline tariffs on most Japanese imports; lower US auto tariffs targeted within ~2 weeks; Japan boosting US rice purchases; Tokyo still seeking MFN treatment on pharma and chips.
- Chips: White House flags “fairly substantial” chip tariffs soon; private sector: Anthropic to curb AI services to China-linked entities and other US adversaries.
- China: Anti-dumping duties on certain US optical fibres effective Sep 4.
- North America: US preparing a formal USMCA review; Mexico weighing tariffs on non-FTA imports (incl. China).
Geopolitics Watchlist
- UN General Assembly (Tue): Iran nuclear file and potential sanctions snapback dominate; Israel-Palestine recognition moves may surface in speeches.
- France (Mon): No-confidence vote likely ousts the PM; watch market reaction to the next-PM choice and any path to new elections.
- Ukraine: Ongoing diplomacy signaling from Washington and Moscow; headlines can sway energy/grains premia.
- Asia security: US–Japan–Korea joint air/naval/cyber exercises from Sep 15; China–North Korea coordination rhetoric elevated.
Data & Events (by day)
- Mon: Japan GDP, China Trade (timing varies), France no-confidence vote
- Tue: UNGA opens; BLS preliminary benchmark revisions; Apple event
- Wed: China CPI/PPI, Norway CPI, US PPI
- Thu: ECB decision & projections, CBRT, US CPI
- Fri: Japan Industrial Output (final), Germany CPI (final), UK GDP (Jul), US U. Michigan (prelim)
- Sun (ahead of week): OPEC+ meeting outcome sets Monday’s crude tone
What It All Means
Expect FX to trade data-to-headline: US CPI and BLS revisions for the dollar, ECB tone for the euro, and UK GDP for sterling. Oil opens the week on OPEC+ guidance and could set broader risk tone. Tariff signals remain market-relevant—particularly on chips and the US–Japan package—while UNGA and French politics add headline risk. Stay nimble; the sequencing of Sunday’s OPEC+, Tuesday’s BLS preview, and Thursday’s CPI/ECB likely dictates the week’s flow.