Show Notes – Daily US Opening Briefing (8 Sept 2025)
FX
- USD softer post-weak NFP; Fed cut fully priced for Sept 17.
- EUR steady ahead of French PM Bayrou’s confidence vote, where defeat is expected.
- JPY weaker above 148 after PM Ishiba resigns, though stronger Q2 GDP limits downside.
- GBP flat near 1.35 with little data until UK GDP Friday.
- AUD/NZD firmer in Europe despite weak China trade data.
- PBoC sets stronger yuan fix at 7.1029.
- SNB’s Schlegel says high bar for next rate cut; warns US tariffs raise uncertainty.
Trade & Tariffs
- US-China trade talks stall over fentanyl; little progress reported.
- Trump confirms auto tariff cuts for Japan but MFN status unresolved for pharma & chips.
- White House to direct Japan’s $550bn US investment package.
- US considers annual China chip supply permits for Samsung & SK Hynix.
- EU weighs new sanctions targeting Russian banks and oil trade.
- Trump threatens Section 301 action against EU over tech fines.
Commodities
- OPEC+ confirms Oct output hike of 137k bpd; Russia says compliance strong.
- Iraq signs MOUs with Oman on oil storage & trading; in talks with ExxonMobil.
- Italy: no 2025 coal phase-out; gas storage comfortable; US LNG competitive.
- Gold tops $3,600/oz, supported by weaker dollar, Fed cut bets, and PBoC purchases (10th month).
- Copper firmer but capped by weak Chinese trade data.
- Trump exempts graphite, tungsten, uranium & gold bullion from tariffs; silicone & some chemicals added.
Geopolitics
- Japan: PM Ishiba resigns, LDP leadership vote set for Oct 4; succession race begins.
- Middle East: Trump issues “last warning” to Hamas; Israel says Gaza war ends if hostages freed. Houthis strike Israel’s Ramon Airport with drones. Iran-IAEA talks described as positive but incomplete.
- Ukraine: Russia launches 800+ drones/missiles overnight; Kyiv govt HQ hit. Ukraine strikes Druzhba pipeline. Trump says 2nd round of sanctions ready; EU preparing 19th package. Russia claims gains in Dnipropetrovsk.
- Turkey: Police block opposition HQ in Istanbul after court ruling, escalating tensions.
- Asia: South Korea secures release of Hyundai workers detained in US raid. China preparing to reopen bond market to Russian energy firms.
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