Speaker 2: Welcome to Honest Money.
I'm your host, Anja, and today's episode is brought to you by Hardblock.
Scott: Hello, welcome back to another episode of Honest Money.
Joining me today is Scott Phillips.
He is the CIO or the Chief Investment Officer at Motley Fool.
Uh, welcome to Honest Money Scott
Anya.
Thank you for having me, man.
I'm looking forward to our chat.
Anja: Me too.
Me too.
I, yeah.
I really wanted to have you on, because you are one of those rare
people who have done the work.
You've read some books on Bitcoin and you're still not all that convinced.
Um, so let's talk about that.
What do you, what is, um, I know you were recently on the Australian
Bitcoin Podcast, um, but I'm keen to know, that was about three months ago.
Uh, have there been any updates in, in how you, what you think of Bitcoin now?
Scott: Great question.
Well, also, I do the Monthly Fool Money podcast too with, uh, Andrew Page.
We've had on the, on the show, we talked a lot about it there too.
So we, we, if people want updated thought generally they can get them there as well.
My, so my thought effectively about Bitcoin, I've been through the Ringer.
I owned some Bitcoin years ago and the sold, I bought it because when
I first kicked off I was like.
You kinda have to do it to, to learn about it, right?
To be part of it.
So you got the process and all that kind of stuff.
So I did that and then I sold it after that and kind of just
watched from the sidelines.
And I've never, I don't think it's, I don't think I'm rewriting history.
I don't I've ever been a bitcoin bear.
What I have been for the longest time, and still remain to some degree, is a Bitcoin,
i've never an agnostic, but someone who recognizes or tries to recognize
the opportunity, but also the risk.
And for an investor like me, try and follow Warren Buffet's lead
of, of having a very, very large, a large two hard pile, right?
So there's stuff I know I like, there's stuff I know I don't like, and there's
a massive pile of stuff, which is just, and this I'm talking about shares.
It's like, uh, I don't know.
I, I don't, I don't have enough, strong enough conviction.
I don't know the answer, strong, strongly enough to be
prepared to make an investment.
Mm-hmm.
And I did buy some Bitcoin, what was it last October, I think it
was, and it ki the, the, the thesis in my head is still unproven.
And so it, it's a very small position for me.
And it largely just simply comes down to, for all of the technological, for all
of the monetary, what's the right word?
Benefits or positives or logic or any of that sort of stuff.
Right.
Only in ever, to my mind comes down to, yeah, but will people do it?
And that's a future thing, right?
And I don't believe anyone who says, of course they will, because you can't know.
No one can know.
You can say, I think they will be because, and that's completely
cool is I think they won't be because, and that's completely cool.
And same with Coles and Woolies.
Will people keep up Woolies?
That's a pretty good chance.
They will.
Right?
Definitely.
No, pretty good chance.
Um, with Bitcoin, the simple question for me is one of adoption.
It is simply a matter of, we have a technology that is super cool,
we have a solution to broken money, which is super cool.
Neither of those things mean necessarily we will take those things up in my
mind, and so it's just a question of if this peters out, ends up being
some kind of sideline thing that some people use for some purposes.
Then that's all it does.
If it replaces money entirely.
That's what it does.
The range of those outcomes is just massive and there's
no way to know the future.
You can use some indicators to say, I think this is happening.
Um, and why are you kind of bored?
Eventually?
Just to get back to your question, was there seems to be enough
critical mass of adoption now.
Anja: Mm-hmm.
Scott: For me to be comfortable to start to get some exposure to bitcoin.
Not to replace my portfolio with Bitcoin.
It's a tiny position percentage wise.
Um, but it was kind of like a first, first step into that world based
on the adoption by institutions, governments, larger investors, uh,
the, the very fact that it's sustaining itself after this period of time.
Um, when I say nothing about price, though, by the way, I mean price is
to some degree, indicator of Bitcoin's popularity for reasons that I'm sure
you know, when you listeners know.
But broadly, it's, it's all about, for me, the question of adoption.
I think it is more likely now than I did 3, 5, 7 years ago.
That's why I bought some last October.
Anja: Yeah, well if you bought last October, you'd be down.
Scott,
Scott: I've done a lot.
I've done a lot.
I didn't quite pick the top, but almost picked the top.
So I will tell you, my US dollar buy price was $106,000, uh, at,
at that point, but I was 125.
I think I, I bought 106 and yes, ever since I, I was the capitulation trade.
But if I'm, if I'm telling you I'm buying more Bitcoin, you
should sell yours and wait till I sell and you can buy back again.
Yeah.
No, I, I, it's been a horrible experience thus far.
I look, I've been investing for decades, right?
So I'm used to big falls and just, it sucks.
I'm like, okay, that sucks, but it just is what it is.
Anja: That is so funny.
But you also said, if I heard correctly, that you bought previously, uh,
bought and then sold the first round.
Did you, so did you make money break even or lose money that time as well
Scott: for the first time?
I don't remember actually.
Oh, no.
I made some money the first time, actually made some good money.
Anja: Okay.
Scott: And had I kept those Bitcoin, I be, have made more money since then.
So yeah.
It's a, it's a, it's a horrible story.
It was, it was.
I literally, I've done, I won't disclose the barista perch the first
time I bought a hundred bucks worth.
Right.
So just, it just was like, you know, not, and it was, and it was literally
at the time to have gone the people, it was getting popular as the investment
advisor, people were asking me about it.
I had a view, which I still maintain.
The, the, the, the dial has shifted.
But the, the question has largely been the same question with just adoption.
But I bought some just to kind of be part of the process.
Set up an account, do all that kinda stuff.
It was only with that online exchange, just a hundred bucks, just so I could
literally go through the process and know what it was like held, had a, a wallet on.
On that exchange.
I closed it out.
I dunno how many years ago it was, but yeah, just, just, it was,
it was, it was just to get some experience of being a holder rather
than as an investment in itself.
Uh, and it was more just the responsibility as an investment
advisor at that point, I thought I have to at least have weighted
into it and like everything, right?
If you own some, you tend more interested in it.
Uh, there are some great investors who have portfolios there with
3 0 400 companies in them.
And really, really, really, really, really small portions.
But the idea, they, they buy a little bit, so they kind of,
they've got skin in the game.
It just makes you more interested, more engaged.
It, it makes you do the work.
Um, even if they ever stays that small.
That was kind of their idea.
And for me, I took Bitcoin the same way of, okay, if I get involved, if I
start to go down that path, I can learn a little bit more about the asset from,
not the outside, not entirely the diamond hands inside, but just that idea of, uh,
a little bit of exposure just to get, get some experience and some knowledge.
Anja: Hmm.
Yeah, no, that, that's super interesting because to me it's like knowing that
there's so many people that, um, are in it kind of for ideological reasons,
just almost makes me confident that it's never gonna go to zero because
some people like I irrational when it comes to when he comes to it.
Um, a hundred percent.
But I'm very curious to know, like, has your perception of Bitcoin shifted?
Um.
Before and after reading those two books that you've read, which is Broken Money
and the Bitcoin standard, um, or was, were you always kind of the same even
before, before you read those books?
Scott: That's a very good question.
Um, that's, I haven't, I haven't been asked that question before.
It's a really good question.
I suspect subconsciously it made me more prepared to buy.
Consciously, no.
But if I'm honest about what we know about the human brain,
subconsciously, probably, yes.
Um, they say you become more, you become like the five people
you spend most time with, right?
I suspect reading those books relatively quick succession, I think it might
have been one or two in between.
I, it, it, it gets in your head, um, as an idea or as a
concept or as a, as a thought.
And so probably, yeah, I suspect I was, again, not, not consciously if I said,
you know, did I decide at that point?
No, absolutely not.
Did did I read the book and go, I really due to No, absolutely not.
Um, and it's why I will direct your listeners if you don't mind,
just to, Andrew and I did two episodes of MO for Money recently.
Uh, and we did two sound Money episodes and we actually mentioned
Bitcoin maybe once or twice in about three hours of conversation.
And I say that only to make the point that those books were interesting
about the history of money, which I thought was fascinating.
Um, and I knew a bit about it, but it was a really nice one.
The concept of sound money is fascinating and just a really big,
you know, mess with your head, right?
Um, and it, and a kind of really different paradigm what we think
we're used to now these days.
So that was really useful.
Did it make me think Bitcoin was going to be the solution?
Because to some degree the adoption problem is one of critical
mass and it's one of inertia.
And you've gotta get to a certain tipping point before you can replace.
Sound money doesn't matter unless, well, sorry, from a Bitcoin perspective,
sound money doesn't matter unless, because it's adopted by everybody and
becomes the defacto standard up to that point it's just a really cool
technological way to exchange value.
Now that's, that's worth a lot in itself.
But, but that doesn't necessarily venture ideological.
It doesn't get us to that point necessarily.
It may well be that Bitcoin becomes a really valuable asset, but we
never actually have sound money.
It just ha it just sits on the side as something different.
More like gold has been for centuries, right?
Gold is a sound type of money to some degree, but it doesn't replace
the system, the broken money system.
Um, it's the type, the title of the book.
So did it change me?
You know, it probably made me more comfortable with the concepts I suspect.
Um, broken money in particular and all does a great job of talking
about some of the ways that Bitcoin can be used and is being used, and
that was fascinating eyeopening.
Um, so yeah, I'm sure it made me more comfortable with the idea, uh, some
of the worked kind of objections and, and the kind of response to those
objections they were probably useful to have gone through, um, logically, um.
And Bitcoin sounds a funny old book.
Um, it's got, it's got some outlandish claims in it, and
I, I, I, I, I loved half of it.
The other half of it I was wasting my time.
It was just ideological nonsense.
Um, uh, so yeah, I mean, yeah.
Yes, good.
Really good books.
I would recommend people read 'em just to get an understanding.
Um, keep those two things in mind.
The only thing I will say is investing is logic psychology, right?
I mean, it matters at some level.
Money's psychology.
It's all, it's all trust and stories we tell ourselves.
The only thing I will say about.
Sound money.
A broken money in particular was if you set up the objections and then respond to
them, you can potentially, not saying Lynn did this at all, but you can set up the
objections that you have the answers to.
People say these five things, here's the answer, these five things.
Anja: Yeah.
It's like almost leading the witness.
Is that
Scott: right?
So, and which questions weren't asked and answered.
Um, you know, don't talk about that.
Just talk with these objections you overcome.
We'll see, see, I overcome all the objections.
You're fine.
Now I'm not saying, I'm not saying she did that at all.
I promise you I'm not.
'cause I'm a skeptic at heart.
Um, not a acidic, but a skeptic.
I did kind of go, am I just being That's a great, great analogy.
Um, is a witness being led here and maybe, yes.
So keep that in mind if you're gonna read it.
Um, just make sure you are not looking for confirmation bias too,
because that's the other thing, right?
If you, you cut.
Start with that.
You look Yeah, exactly.
See, I told you that's are are you, are you hearing the questions
that aren't being asked or, or being highlighted though?
They're just worth thinking about.
Yes.
Good.
Really good book.
A broken Bitcoin.
Sanders had half brilliant, half ordinary, um, but both well worth ready.
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Anja: I love it.
Yeah.
I, the, the Bitcoin stand was the book that kind of orange peeled me.
Um, but Right.
Yeah.
The broken money is the one that you usually, uh, recommend to most people,
particularly if someone is very, very thorough and doesn't want to be told
what to think because I think she does.
Yeah.
I think she does a good job of like weighing up different
theories and saying, well.
This group of people believes in this, and this group of people believes in
that and, and kind of helps guide you.
But yeah, I do agree.
There is definitely some guidance there, whether intentional, unintentional,
I think we all, we all tend to do it, but yeah, even like my sinister, not
sinister, but my, um, hidden agenda for inviting you in this podcast is I wanted
a timestamp because I am pretty confident that one day you're going to like Bitcoin.
So I just wanted to document this journey and be like, you
know, this is Scott in 2026.
Scott: Nice.
Nice.
Anja: And, and, yeah.
Scott: I do, I do like Bitcoin.
So this is where, and that's what's really, I'm one of those relatively few
people, frankly, who like Bitcoin a bit because you either love it or you hate it.
Right?
I'm, I'm in a phone box.
I'm in a phone box by myself.
When I have a meeting of the Bitcoin slightly appreciators club there,
there's only me in that phone box, right?
There's nobody else, 'cause you either hate it or you love it.
Right?
And I, I don't mean that in any arrogant way, it's just
where I, where my head's at.
So I like enough to have bought something.
So the first one I bought it because I was curious.
This one I bought it because I think there's a good chance.
Ah, good chance.
There's a probabilistically more likely than not chance that it
becomes more valuable over time because of that increased adoption.
And so it's the increased adoption curve that I'm looking at.
I think Bitcoin is spectacular technologically.
I think the idea of sound money is brilliant.
Does that mean Bitcoin's going to be successful?
No, not necessarily, right.
I'm saying it's not, i'm saying it's not necessarily going to, the question is how
many people adopt it, how quickly and when it gets to maturity, what price is that?
And maybe it's a million dollars, maybe it's $10 million, maybe it's $14.
It's somewhere, right?
And so if it goes to, if it goes to a hundred, which is replaces money,
then it's worth squillions more.
Will we get there?
I dunno, how close will we get to that?
I dunno.
And so for me it's, and all investing raised probability.
So that's the other thing is when I think about Bitcoin, I think about
the same context as Woolworths.
And I say to myself, is wool's gonna be around in 10 years time?
Probably.
Is it gonna be some more baked beans in 10 years time?
Yeah, probably.
Um, is it gonna make more money at that point?
Probably, yeah.
Now, in some version of the future, Amazon, uh, and Costco take over
the Australian retail market, Woolies doesn't exist exist as
a, as a small portion, right?
Or, it is successful and it's a bit successful, but the price
today is too high relative to what that future success looks like.
So Woolies is 30, I'm gonna say 32 or 33 bucks at the moment, something like that.
If in five years time it exists and it's bigger and people shop
there and the promise of Woolies has played out the shares at 25.
I will have lost money even though I was right about what the future looks like.
So that, again, I just, I say that in the context.
I know most of this is a bitcoiners rather than share investors, but
from my lens, I'm a probabilistic.
I think you can only invest probabilistically, right?
And so I, I, the companies I own, I own Woolies, by the way,
the companies I own, I own.
'cause I believe they're likely to be worth more in future, not because I'm
sure they will colonize the world.
And so I'm taking the same approach with Bitcoin, which is
why I bought some recently, or you know, was it four months ago?
Um, almost five months ago.
Was, was, was specifically that, that reason was, I think now
it's more likely than not that it's worth more, how much more, I
dunno, colonize the world, I dunno.
But given the adoption, given the increased usage, given
all the stuff that we know.
It seems that adoption will continue to increase just as
Coles sales will continue to grow.
And that's the, in my head, that's the, that's the methodology used as an investor
and that's why Bitcoin made it inside my portfolio with just a little bit, just
for now, I wouldn't be surprised either.
I knew if we, if I buy more in a month, two months, five months, 12 months,
two years, I, I may well, absolutely, if the adoption continues and my
confidence in that adoption continues.
That's what I'm going for.
But, but really, really clear, and this is unusual for many people who own Bitcoin.
I'm not there for the mission.
I'm not there.
'cause I believe that it will completely colonize everything, become sound, money,
replace currencies, all that stuff.
Maybe it will, I'm not saying it won't, but I'm not in it for that.
It's not an end game of zero or a hundred.
It's just like, eh, a bit like gold.
I think we'll probably have, you know, use more of it in future.
More people will want it in future.
And if they do it worth more, that's my entire thesis that the
adoption first, second, and third.
Anja: Yeah, yeah.
No, I can, I can certainly relate to that.
Um, obviously you're a lot more skeptical than I am, but I can
certainly rate, because I, I sometimes think as well, like if I had known
what I know about Bitcoin now, say 2014, would I have bought some then?
Probably not.
Because yeah, I think everyone has their own frame in terms of how
long something needs to be around.
So it, while I am an early adopter, I definitely would not have felt
comfortable until I saw some of those bigger institutional players come in.
So I kind of feel like, you know, there's that saying you get Bitcoin at the price
you deserve, which sounds a bit, you know, like, everyone guess the price
Scott: I deserve
Anja: it.
It, it sounds a bit mean, but I think it, I think it's more about like.
You know, if you know about something, it's about your
kind of risk tolerance as well.
And for me, you know, my, my cost average is about a hundred thousand.
Um, USD, so like.
I, no or no Australian dollars, so I kind of, that's okay.
I, I bought in, I did some lump sums, IDCA and I kind of rode the
wave up and rode the way down.
And I'm like, just like, okay, I am back to where I started.
So,
Scott: right.
But
Anja: I, that's that investing my,
Scott: that's investing.
Anja: I still like it.
But, um, I know you are a share, uh, like that's your kind of preferred weapon.
Yep.
If you will.
Um.
Does Bitcoin make you kind of appreciate, or does it make you curious about what
Michael Sailor is doing with his, you know, preferreds and, and all of that?
Are you interested in that or is it still a bit too more
like, oh, this is overvalued.
I don't understand this particular product.
It is a bit unique,
Scott: so I like what he's doing.
Um, if he's right in the end, just 'cause that's kind of
all it coming down to, right.
So is it seriously clever?
Yeah, absolutely.
And so that's, it's.
He's, he's found a way to leverage into Bitcoin without using
debt, which is brilliant, right?
Why would you not?
If you're right.
Of course if you are, you know, uh, collecting Beanie Babies or Yoyos
'cause you think that's gonna be the future and you get 'em really, really
cheaply and no one wants to buy Yoyos anymore, it doesn't matter how many
you've got, you've still got Yeah.
Your Yoyo collection's worth nothing or, or close to nothing.
Right.
So, and I'm gonna say again, this is not a charisma at its slightest.
It comes back to adoption and final price.
It's a really serious look, have a strategy, a great way to do it.
And you start really long and hard about it.
I do think the opportunity gets arbitraged away at some point.
Uh, so getting there early is absolutely what it's all about,
but you still gotta be right.
And again, I, I know people yelling at the yelling at the pod machine now saying, ah,
of course they're, of course he's right.
Um, and he might be, I'm not saying he is not.
I said, I own some Bitcoin.
I'm not anti Bitcoin.
I'm not even on the fence.
I'm, I'm slightly positive.
I'm, I'm, I'm in that, in that space.
Um, but I've gotta be right and he's gotta be right.
If he's right, it's of course, it's a super smart way to do it.
Really smart.
Um, uh, tether doing similar things, you know, the way they're
kind of, you know, changing some of their profit into Bitcoin, if.
Any money, any, any, uh, sat stacking, um, to, uh, to, to whatever,
whatever method you use to do it.
If you're right, the more of it you own, when the price goes up,
the wealthier you're gonna be.
So it makes a lot of sense.
Uh, he's a really persuasive guy.
I like what he has to say.
Um.
'cause I'm a skeptic in everything.
Um, and again, not cynical.
So it's, I'm, I'm an optimist by nature on you, by the way.
I, I'm, I'm a massive optimist.
I'm a massive Pollyanna.
Um, you mentioned, we were talking about Andrew Page, generally our podcast.
I'm the optimist, he's the pessimist, right?
So, so I'm a massive optimist.
Um, but I'm also a skeptic.
So it's kind of like I'm always looking for.
What's the angle?
What am I being sold?
What am I being told?
And the problem with, the hardest part with Bitcoin, I've said, I've
said to Andrew a lot, the hardest part with Bitcoin is you don't get the
appreciate, you don't get the awareness and adoption without the absolute idea.
Ideologues, diamond hand, laser eyes, just the full on, I'll say nut backs for fun.
I don't mean you mean, you know, you know the ones we're talking about, right?
The ones that can't possibly any other, any other outcome.
Right?
Those guys.
And so you don't get it without them.
The problem is that they become almost objectionable as part of that, you
know, I've gotta in, I've gotta be, I've gotta become part of the cult.
If I buy some big Bitcoin, I said, no, I'm just gonna buy it.
'cause you know, one, I point about sailor, my point about everyone else is
when you are a, when you're a, um, uh, when you're a disciple, when you're a,
when you're an acolyte, when you're, when you're someone who's out there preaching
the good word, the, the confidence and the conviction is really valuable.
It's been like, it's been like, you know, this, this, this
will annoy some people as well.
Like the climate change thing, right?
You got people like renews, the only answer and some
nuclear is the only answer.
And I'm like, you guys are, you guys are so polarized.
I can't have a reasonable conversation in the middle with any of you.
'cause you've all got your agendas, you're trying to push your thing.
And so I don't even know if I should listen in any of you.
And so it's kind of the same bit here with.
And it's really hard to be agnostic about Bitcoin, right?
'cause as I say, you either love it, 'cause you think you get it or you
hate it 'cause you don't think it.
So it's hard to be genuinely agnostic or at least open to,
and, and, um, aware of, be able to discuss the pros and cons, right?
Ask, ask an anti Bitcoin for the pros.
They'll find zero.
Ask a pro Bitcoin for the cons they'll find zero.
And neither can be true by definition, right?
Just, just, you know, nothing's perfect.
There's no perfection.
There's better, there's great, they're awesome.
It's wonderful.
There is terrible.
There's atrocious there, you know, but there's, there's always gonna be both.
So I love what he's doing, um, because I'm an investor.
Uh, but the cynicism and the flip side of that is, is the,
um, co uh, confirmation bias.
So, mm, I'm trying to keep myself out of, you know, the, a person who agrees
with me about a thing said a good thing about the thing we agree about.
So therefore it's good.
I'm like, yeah, kind of, of course, right?
I, I could quote myself, myself either and say, geez, Scott Phillips likes
Bitcoin, I should buy something.
Um, so we've gotta be a little bit careful with.
With the high priest of anything.
And again, shares and trading and all, like anything, just be mindful of are
they genuinely giving you the unvarnished, honest pros and cons truth, or are they
out there just preaching the good word?
And if they are, that's cool.
If you like your religion, that's not, I go knock yourself out.
I'm just not sure that.
That you're gonna get a balance you, and that's okay just for
yourself as an individual.
My job is to say, alright, I know what that person's view is.
I'm got a guy on, um, Twitter who gives me grief out by Bitcoin.
Tony, a little bit every, like, every couple of weeks.
Right.
And I'm not listening to him and I'm not listening, but I'm also not
listening to the pro because I ask you finally, you finally, you know,
the scars are fallen for your eyes.
You finally get it.
Welcome to the club.
I'm not sure any of you, I don't, I wanna know who this
Anja: is.
Scott: It's not helpful to me.
It's just not helpful.
Yeah, because the, the bit in between is the, hey.
There's no certainty in life.
Understand Charlie Munger a great investor.
Um, always sort, you gotta know the bear case better than the
bears, even if you're, even if you're gonna buy something.
So I, if I'm gonna buy woolly shares, 'cause I think they're gonna go up,
I better understand the bear case.
'cause that means I know that I'm understanding the risks properly
and I'm allowing for those risks and I make my investment.
I just think, I think both those things are, are worthwhile and useful, important.
Anja: Yeah, absolutely.
And you sound like an extreme centrist.
How so?
Oh, no.
Like, 'cause you know, you, you said like you, you kind of see both sides of the
extreme and you are right in the middle.
So it's just a
Scott: funny,
Anja: funny way of like extreme centrist because there's no such thing as extremes.
Scott: Right.
Well, I mean like that's, I mean that's again, let's get a bit off the topic.
That's like politics in general.
It's very hard to radicalize someone to the center.
You can radical radicalize 'em with the extremes.
That's how we have populous politics.
Right?
How do you radicalize someone at the center?
Yeah.
Let's get annoyed about not much.
'cause really it's about balance and thought.
But I want an emotional reaction to this.
I hate those people.
I love those people.
Uh, I kinda like both of 'em a bit.
And maybe there's some stuff in the middle we can talk about.
I mean, man, try to that in social media, it doesn't exist.
It's a, it's a tough, it's a tough battle, but there we are.
Anja: Yeah.
It really, really are.
But I also wanted to touch a little bit on, um.
Uh, Ray Dalio.
So like mm-hmm.
I, I'm, I'm going with him.
There's obviously so many different people that are talking about this,
but he's probably the most well known and the most mainstream person talking
about it, not some of the domer.
Um.
Groups in, in gold and mm-hmm.
Sound money.
Um, and that is the changing global monetary order.
So for me it is about building, understanding money and building
resilience, whatever that may look like.
And I also don't like pushing my worldview onto other people.
I like to invite people who have different perspectives on this show
because, uh, I do want that kind of diversity of thought and diversity
of dialogue to, to happen here.
But, you know, when I look at things like the digitalization, the bricks,
nations rise to power, um, you know, alternative currencies, whether they are
digital currencies by governments like the Chinese Yuan, or, you know, other
cbdc that are getting built globally.
Obviously stable coins, Bitcoin.
What else?
There's, there's also, you know, the, the US dollar losing the
reserves kind of status slowly.
I think the peak was in 2021, it was like around 72%.
Now it's at around percent.
So there's like a lot of things going on, and I really don't know where things are
gonna land, and I don't think anyone does.
Mm-hmm.
But to me this is kind of like the, the drive to help people at least get curious
about Bitcoin as an alternative and do your own research, make up your own mind.
Um, and I dunno what the question is.
That was a really long rant.
Scott: No, it's good.
No, it's good.
It's really good point.
Um, I'll drop in some thoughts in if you want.
Do you want me to
Anja: contact?
Scott: Yeah, for sure.
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Scott: Alright.
One of the things I think is, um, so I think Bitcoin's gonna have two stages.
Um, I know this is, this is not a, a blindly flashy insight, by the way.
There's gonna be a growth stage in a maturity stage, and I know
you're talking about the broader macro rather than just Bitcoin.
But in the context of this, why it's important, I think, is
because people, a lot of people wanna compare Bitcoin to cash.
I say Bitcoin is better than cash now at maturity.
That's absolutely true.
Okay.
In other words, once you have a stable price.
And again, pricing in dollars.
I understand one Bitcoin worth, one Bitcoin, right?
But work with me here.
Once you have a stable purchasing power, let's call it that.
Um, then as money continues to grow, Bitcoin becomes more valuable.
Measured in that money, measured purchasing power
for all the reasons, right?
Until we get a that and if, if so, even if that happens, when that happens,
'cause we know what price, right?
Well let Bitcoin stabilize, let's say stabilizes it 10 grand or a hundred
grand or a million bucks, whatever number that ends up being from that point.
Bitcoin is obje as unless adoption changes.
So I'm talking about maturity being effectively solid state,
stable level, um, usage.
Adoption.
We get to a point and go, right, we are now there forever,
let's just call it that, right?
Um, at whatever level, how whatever amount of money it replaces, um, other
money, it replaces bitcoin's mature.
And at that point, like gold, it must be better than currency if
the rate of increase is slower than than currency register iss.
That's, and that's where, that's what I'm saying, like from a
sound money from Bitcoin, I get it like absolutely true versus cash.
Right.
Between now and then.
The question isn't, is Bitcoin better than fi currency?
'cause it must be by definition for all the sound money reasons.
The question is what will be the, what is the, I'll say fair value.
It's, again, it's a very loaded term.
It's really hard to have this discussion in any short period of time.
The, the language and the, and the terms.
Whatever it's whatever it ends up being worth.
Eventually, if we're below that, there's growth opportunity.
If we're above that, there's downside risk, and when we get there, we are there.
I say that because between now and then.
The value of investing in Bitcoin is the, is the growth return you get,
I'll call it the speculative return.
I don't mean that in any way pejoratively.
What I mean is you buy it at a price 'cause you think it's
gonna eventually stabilize.
'cause Bitcoin must stabilize.
Well, it grows again in a US dollar sense by the rate of
inflation, but you know what I mean.
So it gets to maturity between now and then.
That, that is a speculative decision based on what you think will happen in terms
of adoption, that that's all it can be.
Right.
And I don't, again, I don't mean it pejoratively in the slightest.
Anja: No, no, I, I agree.
It is speculative.
I also think fiat is speculative.
Scott: Totally.
No, totally.
Right.
So, so this, this is my point.
So this is exactly my point.
Between now and then.
The question is not, or should not be only Bitcoin versus cash.
Anja: Yep.
Scott: Because if we are speculating on the, and again, intelligent speculation,
speculating on the decline of fiat.
We're talking about hard, um, uh, limited, um, scarce assets
versus a printed fi currency.
And in that case, the question should never, ever just be Bitcoin or cash.
'cause I think if, if you're right about the FI moves and you probably are, Bitcoin
should appreciate as long as, as long as the final price is above where we are now.
Because we dunno what the final option is gonna look like.
So let's assume that it goes higher than that.
Let's just assume that's right.
But the question now is, okay, let's say fis declining, dead in
for some sort of reevaluation.
Something, something, something, something.
The question isn't just cash or Bitcoin, it's cash or other scarce,
valuable, rare, um, hard assets.
And so for me, I can play inver commas.
The decline of fiat owning shares or farmland or commercial property or
Bitcoin or gold or whatever else, is not gonna, there's not gonna be more of or
meaning more of over that period of time.
And I guess I'm just making that point not to be, again, not to poo P Bitcoin
the slightest, but I think what people say, yeah, but Bitcoin's better than cash.
I'm like, yeah, I agree.
But that's not the only share's better than cash too.
So what we we're talking about opportunity cost here, right?
The question is, if you're not gonna hold cash.
'cause because of all the reasons we don't wanna hold cash.
What should you hold instead?
And Bitcoin's one of those options, but it is not, we should never distill
down to, well, if FI's going down, then Bitcoin is obviously the right choice.
It's a better choice than cash if you're right about that.
But will Bitcoin outperform shares or farmland or commercial
buildings or something else?
And so that just to your point about, you know, the decline of currencies
of Fiats and US dollars, that's to me.
There's two questions at maturity.
It's Bitcoin versus cash.
Absolutely.
By the way, that at maturity, you wanna own productive assets rather than Bitcoin.
Frankly, now that's gonna, you know, annoy some people, but I
don't, I don't own dollars today.
And if they stop, let's say the Australian government tonight went, you know what?
Never gonna print another dollar.
Not gonna have fractional reserve banking.
We've now got a sound currency in Australia.
I'm still going shares.
'cause they're gonna grow faster than the purchasing power of
owning that fixed currency.
And so that's where it's really important.
So there's the two phases, and you are right to say, if you're right about
the de dollarization, the collapse of fair, massive money, printing, whatever,
whatever that ends up being, like Dalia was talking about, Bitcoin should do
better from a fair value to a fair value.
The question is, what is that fair value?
We don't know.
The same is true of shares, the same is true of property
and, and so on and so forth.
Anja: Yeah.
That's super interesting and yeah, with fiat, like again, I, I completely agree.
There's people on Twitter that, um, aren't entirely honest and, and, and
painted in the worst possible light.
Yeah.
And look, I, I've been there, I've done that.
But like, there's, there's different, um.
Throughout history, we've had fiat experiments that have failed spectacularly
in a very short amount of time, and then we've had fiat experiments that
have kicked the can down the road.
What's speculative for me about Fiat is that no one can really answer how
far you can kick it down the road.
And the reason why I think they're implementing C BDCs is so they can have.
Visibility and be able to kind of manage the life cycle of
fiat, whatever that may be.
Scott: Yeah, makes sense.
Yeah.
Anja: Putting aside all the, you know, scary kind of totalitarian
risks that come with that.
Mm-hmm.
Um, it, it's, yeah, it, it's interesting.
I don't know the answers.
I find this stuff so, so fascinating and yeah, I think it's, it's good
to understand it from as many different perspectives as possible.
Mm-hmm.
But what I. I'm curious about what you said about the lifecycle of Bitcoin, and
to me it sounds like you are almost kind of treating it like a product or a tech
stock or something like that in terms of that it has that, you know, growth phase
and then maturity and then a decline.
I'm not entirely, no,
Scott: no.
Just so I'm clear, just so I'm note I'm not predicting decline.
So growth in the maturity.
Okay.
Anja: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Okay.
Right.
Go
Scott: keep going.
Anja: Yeah.
Yeah.
Um, I guess where I was going with this is like one interesting rabbit
hole I using that term as well.
Rabbit hole, um, is the understanding protocols.
So protocols are very different to products and they operate very
different and have very different, um.
Growth.
I would really like to invite, actually, now that I'm thinking
about it, uh, an expert on protocols to help me understand, I guess that
adoption from a Bitcoin perspective.
It's not like a, um, from what I've read, it's not like you can have.
Competitors to protocols, there's one, and once it establishes critical mass, which
it already has in Bitcoin, this is it.
Um, we haven't had a historical example that I'm aware of, or
technological protocols that have been replaced by something else.
There's been attempts, but it has never happened.
So yeah, I mean, I don't.
I'm just talking out loud now.
I'm not exactly sure where I was going with with all of that.
Scott: No, that's an important point.
Anja: Yeah.
Scott: So the adoption, what about the The phases?
So at some point we all have as much Bitcoin as we want in the context of
the transference of our store of value, medium exchange, all the stuff from
FI to Bitcoin, maybe my entire wealth.
In my entire cash, um, experience.
So transaction saving is all in Bitcoin at some point.
Or maybe I only ever use it to store, or maybe I use it as an asset like
gold where it's kind of off the side, whatever that ends up being.
So gold is mature right?
As, as an asset.
Okay.
And we've come to a point where there's a lot of it out there.
It's found its own price.
Yes.
It still moves around.
It's still volatile 'cause people buy and, and sell it and want more
and want less than we've seen over last 18 months, what it's done.
Um, but, but the, you know, the, the concept has matured.
And so now when no one's really saying, when everybody all of a sudden wants
gold, we are gonna have a, a price that's thousand dollars an ounce for gold, right?
As in, as in that it may happen over time just with slow, you
know, currency inflation, frankly.
But, you know, it, it's reached some degree of maturity.
I still ize, I said, but I still fluctuates.
But, you know, with there, or thereabouts, within a range, even
if a Hals will doubles, it's kind of there and it's gonna stay there.
Bitcoins on that journey to whatever it ends up being that that's exactly why
I suspect 95% of people own Bitcoin, which is I think at some point it's
gonna be worth more money or it's gonna have more purchasing power.
If you don't wanna express it in fi terms.
Because everyone's gonna want it.
Everyone's gonna use it.
And so if I have some now, it's gonna be worth a lot more in the future.
So that's the growth bit.
And, and when I say growth, maybe we should talk about the adoption bit, right?
So, so there's, there's an adoption curve.
And that adoption curve will, will effectively eventually be dead flat.
Not the price, but the curve itself.
In other words, at some point we'll all have as much Bitcoin as
we can afford and want and need and use like gold or like cash.
And at that point, the increase is going to effectively just be,
Anja: yeah,
Scott: the, the, the relative increase anyway in purchasing
power will be the equivalent of the inflation of the currency.
'cause there was no, unless more people want more of it, I mean
Anja: population increase.
Scott: I mean, yeah, to some degree.
Um,
Anja: I agree, will flatten out at some stage, but yeah, I don't think
Scott: it's ever go completely flat.
But 2% a year, that's 2% a year.
I mean that 2% a year, look, it's not bad.
And I don't mean that it correctly at all.
At all, at all.
At all.
Yeah.
Anja: Yeah.
No,
Scott: what I mean is that, let's say, let's say it's population,
let's say population increase at 3% a year's bigger number.
Uh, and let's say inflation runs at 3% a year.
Okay?
Bitcoin's purchasing power increase at 6% a year at that
stage, in that maturity stage.
If I can get an asset, like a share or property, I'm not saying, I'm not saying
there's a better, I'm just saying the opportunity cost question is simply,
do I get, I get 6% in Bitcoin or I can get seven or 12 or 13% somewhere
else, and that's when Bitcoin versus cash is very real as a conversation,
but you're still at maturity looking at, which gives me the best return and
it'd be really unlikely for a money.
Capital M money to give you a higher return once we have ACH maturity
compared to a brand new business that invents the iPhone or uh, a
supermarket's able, you know what I mean?
So that's where I'm, I just wanna make that difference between the
growth or the adoption phase and the maturity phase during adoption,
the zero point pay Bitcoin to cash.
'cause you're not, you, you're comparing it.
I. The, the concept might be that I think this is why it's gonna grow, but no one's
saying, I'm buying Bitcoin to get 3% a year, which is the inflation rate, or 7%
a year, which is the, but the, you know, no one, no one, no one's owning Bitcoin.
'cause I want to grow slightly faster than money supply.
They want this thing to 10 x on adoption, which is great.
It's not a bad thing at all.
So I own it.
I don't know if I did Bitcoin was at full adoption, I wouldn't, I'd sell it and buy
shares instead because I think the upside for shares is better than the upside
for money when it, when it's mature.
But to get there.
That's what we're all hoping.
I own Bitcoin.
I'm hoping too, adoption rises and I make money on the adoption rise.
But that's the process of adoption.
The same as we first moved from shells to shekels.
There was an adoption of shekels.
And if you had a lot of shekels to start with, you did really, really well.
Yeah.
And if you've got the sheckles early, you did better.
'cause there weren't that many of 'em going around.
And so I had to have a shekel and that's how it worked.
So that, that's, I hope that makes sense.
That's kinda what I'm talking about with the, with the,
the two, the two timeframes.
Bitcoin versus cash is not a conversation today.
In my opinion that justifies owning it.
You can say eventually Bitcoin will replace cash and that adoption curve is,
looks like this and that's why I'm buying.
But you can't compare Bitcoin's return to Cash's return.
Now make the case for Bitcoin specifically own on that basis, unless
you also say and versus shares and versus property versus something else.
Anja: Yeah.
What would give me personally more conviction around the long-term
adoption would be if I see Bitcoin being used as a medium of exchange
a lot more than it is today.
So.
If I see that in my lifetime, I'll be very happy.
Scott: Well man, that's it right now, by the way.
You can use a medium exchange now, but when the
Anja: adoption phase, how frequent I, and I do, I do.
Yeah.
Like I do use it as a medium exchange, but like it, it's not like I'm
still using Australian dollars most of the time, like 95% of the time.
There you go.
So yeah.
Oh, and obviously like in the global south, it is used a lot
more as a medium of exchange Yeah.
Than a store of value.
I find that really, really fascinating.
Scott: Mm-hmm.
Anja: But you know, in the Western world, we are using it as a store of value.
That's super.
Yeah.
But I wanted to know is do you have any other books that you're gonna
read on Bitcoin or you kind of done
Scott: so No, I'm not planning to, um, and largely because.
I'm, I sound like a broke record on you and I'm sorry.
Um,
Anja: it's okay.
Scott: Largely because I don't need to be convinced about bitcoin's
inherent characteristics or value.
Anja: Yeah.
Scott: It doesn't ma it because I'm not here for the mission.
I, by the way, I'd, I'd love to sound money as a concept, right?
So it, um, the mission of sound money is useful.
The mission of Bitcoin is not very useful to me at all, right?
I just, how I, if we, if we went to a sound Australian dollar currency
standard, I'm happy with that.
I don't need then push the Bitcoin train.
'cause I don't need it to be Bitcoin for the sake of being
Bitcoin, other than the fact I'd like to make some money out of it.
So sound money is a mission.
Of sorts.
I'm not even seriously massively kind of all in on it, just
like I get it and it'd be cool.
And if we did that, that'd be great.
Um, by the way, getting this, our money would be an absolute
economic just mess for years.
So we kinda gotta be careful what we wish for.
Right.
To get to the other side of that.
Yeah.
That's a whole different conversation.
But that is, that is messy as hell and painful as hell.
So we've gotta get to that.
If, if we were to get to that, we'd have to get to that.
So I, I'm here for the Bitcoin mission.
I'm here to make some money if adoption rises.
So you ask about the, the book question.
The reason why is I don't need to be convinced about
its technological superiority.
I don't need convinced about the value of sound money.
I don't mean that in arrogant sense, and, and I'm not saying
I know everything about it.
Mm. Honestly, is that none, none of that would change my view.
Yeah, Bitcoin is amazing.
As a technology, if I was convinced it was even more amazing, it would've
absolutely no difference on my view.
If I was convinced it was the best invention ever, would've no, no difference
on my view, because doesn't matter what I think, the price only goes up.
If you think it and everyone else thinks it, and people listening to this
think it, and their cousins think it, and their cousins friends think it,
that's when I start to make some money.
Right?
I'm not, I'm not my understanding of Bitcoin.
I, I don't.
I'm not investing a small amount only.
Mm-hmm.
And I'm not, I have got only tiny amount.
The reason it's tiny is not because I don't think Bitcoin is
legitimate or gonna succeed, or, um, is not a solution to sell money.
It's none of those things.
Right?
So I'm not, the only reason, my only, my only question, this is literally a
one dimensional question, is will more people want it and use it in future?
How many more and where will the price settle?
'cause here's the other problem.
Let's say more people use it like the Woolies example, but the
price still settles at $50,000.
Because that's where we settle, right?
Even if I'm about more people using it, if the price is lower,
it doesn't make any difference.
Anja: Mm. And
Scott: if the, if it's brilliant, if it's the best invention ever and it settles
at $50,000, that's still the price.
So the price will be determined by the adoption and usage and demand,
not by however brilliant it might be.
Now, I. More people joining the cult is useful to me.
'cause that means more adoption.
So if other people read the book and go, oh my God, I, I
want Bitcoin, like, brilliant.
If you guys all want Bitcoin, there's like 21 million of them.
We know that.
And the people who own them already already own them.
And they're only gonna sell 'em at a higher price.
So, hey, if a lot of people join the Church of Bitcoin, then I'm stoked.
Right?
'cause they're gonna want more because they want their share of the pie.
Um, I somebody a bit, a bit merc about it, that's exactly what it's, for me,
it's, it's just, it was gonna go up.
I don't mean to say arrogant, say I don't have to read anymore about
pic, Bitcoin or all, I dunno, all.
What I am saying is I don't, it doesn't matter how much I know what matters
or how much other people want it.
So it's about them, not about me.
From this point forward, in my view,
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Anja: I've, yeah, I've learned to take a funny, like just the joke
around the whole cult mentality.
Like even yesterday I was, I was, um.
I noticed on Twitter that Gerard Renick is um, mm-hmm, gonna be in kind of the
Northern Rivers region doing some visits, um, and, and talks at community centers.
So he is gonna be like in Grafton and Tamworth and C Harbor
and a few places like that.
And, and I sent a question to the community and I was like,
does anyone wanna go say hey, 'cause he hates Bitcoiners.
Oh, right, okay.
He hates us.
And, and I just thought like, let's go, let's be friendly.
And everyone's like, no.
And I'm like, so you're saying you don't wanna show up with the
Bitcoin standard in one hand saying, we are from the private sector.
We are here to help.
Scott: So, so, and that, and that's kind of the, so I, I say
cult and, and I'm being funny and I'm being a little bit serious.
'cause man, there is some cult-like behavior about it.
For some, for no, but from some people, right?
So you can be, you can be a fundamentalist Christian or you can
be a Sunday Christian, or you can just be a, a broad believer, right?
And same with the other faiths.
Um, and that's great.
I's not a, it's just there's different people by the way.
I think the cult nature of it is really attractive.
What else is the cult Apple, Tesla?
Mm. Um, the,
Anja: I think that's also strength of it because
Scott: Totally.
That's what I'm saying.
That's, that's what I love about it.
So as an investor, I'm like, what literal, I mean, I'm being, I'm being facetious.
Oh no.
I'm trying to be funny about it.
Just 'cause it's fun.
The more people who, who joined the Bitcoin cult, the better.
If you are all in and you are adding, oh man, I'm gonna turn my entire
investment into bitcoin's, like, great.
Another one for the tally.
And if I'm making, if Myco, here's the, the Bitcoin be I've got is not literally,
but you know why I bought Bitcoin.
If the church gets bigger, I make money.
That's literally, that's literally the story, right?
So I love it.
I love that it's a cult.
I love that people wanna jump in, know a lot people wanna be part of it.
Now, if the cult member will drink the Kool-Aid and the whole thing
falls over in massive trouble, right?
Just to kinda extend the cult idea.
So yeah, there's gotta be a sustained cult.
Like Apple has been.
I mean, apples, the Apple phones are a little bit better than the others.
Maybe not even, right?
I, I own a Pixel, it's great.
Anja: Mm.
Scott: But Apple makes a Squillion dollars more in profit 'cause people love their
apple more than they love their pixels more than they love their Samsung.
And it's like, as an investor, I was an idiot 'cause I didn't buy Apple.
I, I looked at Tesla and went, I dunno how to value this.
And it's like, I'm an idiot.
People love Tesla.
They love Elon.
Like the cult of Elon is, I mean, man, Bitcoin's got nothing
on the cult of Elon, you know?
And so like, that, that stuff is like, as an investor, I'm like, I want products.
I wanna own products, I wanna own companies.
I'm, or assets like Bitcoin, where people are like, I'm in, I'm so
in, I've got the laser eyes, I've got the Bitcoin tattooed on my arm.
Uh, I'm gonna, I'm gonna push, I'm gonna turn up at the Northern Rivers and copy
the Bitcoin standard and, and you know, try, try and get, I mean, that's that,
seriously, like that, that's the, that's the key that's I'm looking at going.
I mean, if that keeps happening, I imagine, imagine, and this, again, I don't
mean to make it too cult annoy anyone, or if anyone who's, who's religious.
But imagine, imagine you, you turn, you turn up on the third day after Jesus rises
from the cross and you go from the grave and you go, this might be big one day.
Imagine if I could have a share of Christianity.
Now, obviously you couldn't but think, but think, you know, like,
think about that, like the very idea that we could go to that.
Same with the other religions, I said aside about Christianity.
Just have, have that background as a, as a kid.
Um.
Like that.
If that's the story, then man, if I, if I can get leverage to
the growth of that, then I'm in.
So that, yeah, I, I, I kid about it.
I, I hope I'm not offending of you listeners.
I hope they're all got a decent sense of humor somewhere.
I mean, by the way, if you're offended, if you're offended by it, it might be 'cause
you're actually a member of the cult.
Uh, if you're not offended by it, you, you're probably not.
And that either of those is cool.
Um, but yeah, that, that's just my, that's my thought about the adoption curve.
And that's why it's so powerful, by the way, is the true believers
are, man, they are full on.
And that's, and that's great.
It's, you're out there preaching the good word.
And if that works.
Then we'll get rich.
Anja: Yep.
I'm definitely a member of the cult with a sense of humor, so, um, but yeah, it's so
interesting 'cause when I was introduced to Bitcoin, uh, they told me it's like
you're gonna go through a phase where you become phase, where you become overzealous
and a hundred percent happened, and I'm kind of coming out of the other end.
I was like, wow, maybe I'm coming across too strong.
And now I'm watching all the people that I orange build cut kind of go
through this phase and I'm like, wow.
That's what I was like,
Scott: yeah.
Right.
Now, by the way, I love that people care that much.
You know, if, if you're there interested, if you, if you, if you're,
if, if you created a culture, I get rich, then I have no time for you.
If you've created a cult, you're like, man, I've seen the truth, and
the truth will set you free and I need everyone else to know it 'cause
I just believe this so fervently.
Anja: Mm-hmm.
Scott: It's still not necessarily particularly lovely to hang out with
some of those people sometimes, but I, but I love the passion is genuinely
held and genuinely felt, and you just wanna make it for all the reasons.
Bitcoin is great if it becomes.
Uh, the money.
That's a really good result, right?
Again, really painful to go through.
We haven't got time to that moment.
I'm happy to if you want to, but who knows what that, what that looks like.
It's gonna be messy as hell and it's gonna hurt like hell and it's gonna
a really significant adjustment.
If on the other side of that we go.
It was worth it then great i'm all for it.
Um, so yeah, if, if you, if you're there for the mission, if you love the
mission, if you wanna be part of the mission, if you wanna go and knock on
doors like the JWS or, or stand at the railway station out pamphlets, great.
Go for it.
If you know, if, because the other thing is if people, if it is better
and people think it's better, yeah.
Then great.
Yeah.
Then we end up, we win.
Right?
Eventually, I don't mean winners in Bitcoin as win, I mean, society wins.
So yeah, if you, if you're a member of the cult and the cult is doing good
things and you're not, you know, messing with other people, then fantastic.
Love it.
Go for it.
Just also, by the way, and back to what I said before, if you are one
of the cult, um, just recognize that sometimes your fervor can
be off-putting for other people.
Um, I will say, I think it's very likely if I'm, if I'm
honest about my subconscious.
I suspect part of what took me so long to get into Bitcoin the second
time around, no, seriously was
Anja: this is, look at those picture.
This is true for many people.
I know what
Scott: you're gonna
Anja: see, right?
Yep.
Scott: Right.
And so it's like.
I don't, I don't wanna be like you.
I think you're over the top.
I instinctively if you, if someone pushes you, what do you do?
You, you either push back or you just get outta there, right?
Anja: Yeah.
Scott: Either way, you're not being invited to the table, you're
being either pushed into the table or pushed away from the table.
And so in both cases, like, dude, no, no, I'm not, I I'm instinctively
putting up a barrier here because I don't want to hear your crap.
Excuse my language.
Um, so I'm not, and, and it's probably cost me money, frankly.
And that's on me, not on anybody else.
But the reality is, you, you already made the point.
Put it there, let people come to it, rather pushing it on them.
By all means, make them aware of it, hope 'em understand it.
All the stuff you've said already in the, the sound money book
is a, is a great a breakaway.
So it's a great way to do that.
Um, but yeah, just if you're, if you're in the company, you're a
true believer, just let people come.
Don't try and force it on them.
'cause that will push them away in most cases.
Anja: Yeah, it's interesting now, like I'm thinking how, where would we be at
with adoption if we weren't like this?
Scott: Well, no, but so here's the other thing, right?
So I think probably worse.
Anja: Okay.
Right?
' Scott: cause you need you,
Anja: yeah.
Scott: You need the cult to get, like, you need the, the, the critical mass when,
when no one wants to turn up to church.
But the same 14 people turn up every week and keep the church alive while
they wait for other people to come back.
Without those people, the church dies.
I mean, if, if the true believers all went, oh yeah, let's not bother you.
You don't.
So it's, it's up.
And that's what I was saying before about the, the cult members push people
away, but without the cult members, there's nothing to push to bring them to.
So it, it, it's, it's, it's intrinsically linked.
And that makes it both wonderful and hard.
But you can't have only the, the other, you can't have the
adoption and the awareness.
Without the, without the really hardcore, true believers, right?
But those people are also making it harder for adoption at the same time.
So you need them for it.
You kind of need them to at some point go, our job is done here.
We've seeded it.
It's like a startup founder, right?
Some people are great at starting businesses, but not
very good at running them.
And at some point you go, I started up, I've done my thing.
Here we go.
I'm gonna hand it over.
Not necessarily, not literally keep your investment and do your thing, but just
recognize that adoption of anything, new technology, new product, new idea,
new money, uh, requires people to be able to be, be, um, brought on board
in a very non-confrontational way.
Mm. 'cause they see the opportunity for themselves rather having feel
like they're being pushed into it.
And that becomes, because that's when you get the instinctive kind of
push back, eh, just leave me alone.
Go away.
Uh, so that, I, I think that's probably part of the problem, but
I said, I'm not gonna criticize it.
'cause you don't without it.
There is no Bitcoin community.
Without it, there is no sound money.
Without it, there is no et cetera, et cetera.
Right.
It becomes a, it's the techies.
Uh, we're back to 2000 and whatever, 14.
As you mentioned before, and maybe we're still at 2014 levels.
The, the, the, the true believes that a great service, but broader
of adoption requires it to be more accessible and less polemic than I think
the first couple of legs of growth.
Anja: Yeah, that's, yeah, that's very interesting.
Um, but I think the cult members would be mad if I didn't ask you if you
understand the difficulty adjustment.
Scott: Yes.
Uh, only conceptually.
I know absolutely nothing about the technological technology behind
it, but yes, I'm absolutely aware of the difficulty adjustment.
Um, yep.
And again, so here's the, I know, I know you had to ask it, and I'm, I'm gonna,
again, you that broken record you, by the way, cut this podcast down at 15 minutes.
'cause I repeated myself all over the time.
No, no course.
But, but the, you know.
I don't need to, I don't need to, uh, to, um, I don't need to know or believe or
accept it in the sense that knowing more about it, it's like, oh, it does that.
Yeah.
Oh, in that case, I think everyone's gonna adopt it.
All of a sudden,
Anja: well,
Scott: don't know how
Anja: thees combustion engine works and you drive a car, so,
Scott: right.
And well, but even, but even there's not even me.
See, this is, you're right.
There's other things like I, I don't have to know how the pressure
was for me to drive the car.
I didn't even have to drive the car.
I just have to look at everyone else going.
They're all driving cars.
Gee, cars must be, must be, cars must be a thing.
Cars are useful.
Uh, and more people are driving cars now.
Well, do more people understand the internal combustion engine?
No.
Uh, did I have to have a stronger conviction than combustion engine
for more cars to be driven?
No, I just, cars just became more popular 'cause people
went, huh, I should use a car.
I'm like, ah, man, glad I've got shares in the car, car.
'cause I was right about that.
And so for me, that, that's, you're exactly right, mate.
I'm not gonna say.
I, I, I knew a little bit the combustion, so I bought one share and then I learned
that fuel injection's a thing, and so I bought five shares, and then someone
told me about the way that spark plugs work with the, oh, so I bought 10 shares.
I was like, I don't need to know that.
I, I know it, it works.
I understand that it's a car.
The combustion engine works.
I know it.
Fuel goes in the combust.
Literally, that's the idea.
Drives the pistons, drives the wheels.
Cool.
Okay.
Got it.
Is it worth more if I know more about the car?
No, not unless other people also go, I want the car, so
yeah, you're exactly right.
That's a perfect example.
Anja: Hmm.
I didn't think I would find the cryptography side of things or the
technical side of things interesting because for me, like reading the Bitcoin
standard, which is more like the economics case for it, like understanding hard
money and understanding monetary history, that was enough, but I was so surprised.
How, when I started learning about cryptography, how fascinated I
was and, and I remember learning about the difficulty adjustment
'cause I knew of the supply cap and I'm like, okay, I understand.
You know, it's the only finite asset that we have that has truly scarce.
Um, yes, yes.
And, but then the difficulty adjustment, I'm feel like that's the magic
because you are moderating the supply.
You can't just flood the supply.
Like, and I, I just
Scott: way of supply too.
Exactly.
Yes.
That's right.
Anja: Yeah.
And it's like, it's, it's insane that someone had thought of this.
And, and again, just to, to, right.
Just quickly explain the mechanism for, for any listeners that
are not, um, familiar with it.
Basically it's a mechanism that ensures that blocks a mind
approximately every 10 minutes.
And that is to ensure that, um, regardless of the changes in the
network, computational power, which is also called the hash rate.
So if you get a lot of miners on board who are trying to compete,
um, for the hash, basically they.
Adjust every two weeks, or actually specifically every 2016 blocks.
Mm-hmm.
Which is approximately every two weeks.
And fun fact is, um, some people think that the reason 216 blocks
were chosen is because, is the, and I don't believe you this, but it's
because it's the re reverse of 61.
Oh.
Yeah.
61. Oh two.
61. Yeah.
I'm trying to reverse it in my mind.
Oh two executive order, which was to confiscate people's gold.
Scott: All right.
That's a cool, I, I dunno if that's true, but it's a nice, it's a nice story.
That's, that's really cool.
Anja: It's a great story, but I, I think maybe, I hope there was some
more mathematical rigor behind it.
They're just like, let me pick something symbolic.
Scott: Think of a reverse.
You might as well it the first place I, yeah.
Like, and that's right.
Like I, the, the, the combination of the, the, the genius, the absolute
genius of the Bitcoin cryptography and the concept and the proof of
add all those things together right?
And it is just mind blowingly good.
I am, I'm in awe of satoshi slash whoever that they or him or her is.
And the, but also the group, the group who, 'cause, and I know you know
this, the beauty of Bitcoin wasn't inventing much, if anything at all.
It was kind of going, have, I had a bit of that and a bit of that, and
a bit of that and a bit of that.
And I, I put it all together.
That would be a really cool way to actually have money.
And it still blows my mind.
Even I'm talking about now, I've, I've, I'm not anywhere near an expert, right?
But the, the conversations and the, the research and the reading I've done,
it's like you put all those things together and you made this thing that
seems to be about as perfect as anyone can think of 'cause we still haven
been able to find, you know, there's the occasional, uh, software upgrade.
But, you know, broadly speaking, the kind of content we started with, it's
like without any of those things, this thing kind of falls over, right?
And so imagine without the difficulty adjustment.
The, the computing power over the last however many, you know, decade
and a half, I mean, and then go forward another two decades without
that, the whole thing falls over.
Right.
They've already been mined probably by now I suspect.
So, so, and throw in just proof of work.
The, just the broad concept of all that stuff together is just really cool.
I'm an expert, as I said, so I, that's why, I mean, I, I
don't need to be convinced.
Technology is amazing or the concept is incredible or, and I'm, I'm not prepared
to say it can't, nothing can be better either, by the way 'cause I don't know.
Right.
It's kind of back to leading the witness thing for the things we can think about.
That seems perfect.
If we got 50 years into the future and someone went, yeah, it turned
out you missed these two things and no one thought of 'em, it's like,
ah, yeah, okay, that makes sense.
We thought Bitcoin was the answer.
It turns out that these things were necessary and better and whatever.
Now so far, that doesn't seem likely 'cause we've gone far enough.
That's your point.
About 2014 versus today we got report was like.
Okay.
It's, it hasn't been done yet.
So the chance someone finds something genuinely revolutionarily, uh, either
whole or, sorry, doesn't do that.
Can't do that.
Maybe something else can do.
Or, and again, you can always change the, you can always change the, um.
The software, the code.
So maybe Bitcoin just incorporates, but either way, um, it just, it's just
so incredibly cool what it can do.
Yeah.
And I am with you guys.
I assume that, I dunno if you, you have actually, uh, certainly
Andrew Page, uh, is yeah, Bitcoin and everything else is rubbish.
Uh, I'm, I'm of that.
I'm of that, uh.
Um, view that at least as far as money goes, it seems like there
is no second, um, or no reason.
There is a second, but it's so far away.
It's not, you know, the, the, the, the, the genius of the, of, of the
code, the genius for the thinking Yeah.
Is just really, really super cool.
So yeah.
Love it.
Um, but that's kind of just to, that's why I haven't.
I don't need to be convinced any further that Bitcoin's great.
Um, other people do.
And so they should read the book and if they like it, they can buy some Bitcoin
and then my, the Bitcoin price goes up.
That'd be cool.
Um, but what I think is gonna have absolutely no difference to the currency
whatsoever, if I got more convicted.
But other people got less convicted.
Anja: Mm-hmm.
Scott: I would still lose money.
So it's, it's just, it's just not about me anymore.
I don't think it's about you anymore.
It's about any of us anymore.
It's about all of us.
Um, almost all certain, just the bitcoins.
I mean everybody, the degree to which we all go, I should do that.
I should use that.
I should use it as a medium exchange story about, that'd be cool.
Okay.
Well then things change, but that, that's the, that's the starting end point for me.
Anja: Love it.
Love it.
I, I really enjoyed this conversation.
I'll drop all the links with your podcast with Andrew.
Oh, thanks mate.
Um, Paige in the comments and anything else, you wanna add it there as well?
Sorry, in the show notes, not the comments and yeah.
Do you have any final things you wanna share with my audience?
Scott: Man.
Um, you've asked some really good questions.
I, I like the question about the book stuff and what else?
You ready?
Um, do you have any other thoughts?
No, other than I would encourage, as an investment advisor, I'd encourage people
to just think probabilistically rather than absolutely only because it keeps
your mind open to having it changed.
And you have to do that, right?
You have to do that.
'cause at some point, if, and it's Angela's massive Bitcoins,
you know, um, un unless you're proud of your mind, no one wins.
You don't win.
By having a closed mind.
Because if you're an open mind and you are, you're still right.
Having an open mind being correct is perfect, right?
Because you are open and you are right.
Having an closed mind and being wrong is, is is absolute destruction.
'cause I wasn't open to being committed to, and now I say otherwise, I
mean positive and negative, right?
Like literally, once you've decided to think must be true.
You're not used to yourself, let alone anybody else.
So keep an open mind, keep thinking about it, and if it, if it drives
you further down that path, do that.
If it drives you back from that path, that's okay too.
Um.
But certainty kills rational thought and you must remain rational as an
investor in whatever asset you're buying, whether it's Bitcoin or something else.
The stop.
The second you stop being rational and you start believing your own pr.
That's when you stop thinking and that's when mistakes can happen.
That's when you get yourself into trouble 'cause you're no longer looking for.
What if I'm wrong?
What if they're right?
What if something else that, that's the framework.
I think as an investor, you must bring to the table and then probabilistically.
If you're like, eh, it's a hundred percent, but 99%, 95, 70 5%, 58%.
More likely than not, you're at a political place.
Anja: Love it.
That that's, yeah.
Great, great message to leave everyone with.
Thank you so much for your time, Scott.
Scott: Absolute pressure.
Thanks for having me, Anya.
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