In the latest Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing breaks down just how the policy uncertainty emanating from the Trump administration is – and isn’t affecting – the global economy. He also previews the February US employment report and whether Musk’s layoffs will impact the national labour market and the opening of this year’s National People’s Congress in Beijing.
Also on the show, what’s the view of Trump’s tariff threats from India? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah calls from Mumbai after a week of meetings with business, government and media to talk about why Narendra Modi’s administration thinks it can dodge this bullet, as well as the macro environment and RBI response.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/could-uncertainty-weigh-global-economy
China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment
CAP: Official data underplays China’s 2024 weakness
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-official-data-underplays-chinas-2024-weakness
India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-weekly/india-weekly-tariff-manoeuvres-rbi-shifts-priorities-long-run
What is The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics?
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.