Welcome to The Chemical Show, the podcast where Chemical means business.
I'm your host, Victoria Meyer, bringing you stories and insights
from leaders driving innovation and growth across the chemical industry.
Each week we explore key trends, real world challenges, and the
strategies that make an impact.
Let's get started.
victoria_3_09-22-2025_165151: Welcome back to The Chemical
Show where Leaders Talk Business.
It's the end of September, 2025.
We are wrapping up the third quarter and getting ready to
head into the fourth quarter.
And you like other leaders across the industry are looking to finish strong.
Close out what's been a rather tumultuous year and set
yourself up for success in 2026.
That's exactly what this episode is all about.
I'm gonna be talking about the key themes heading into Q4 and how
leaders can and should respond.
This is the quarter where strategic discipline really differentiates those
who are merely surviving to those who are positioning to grow into 2026.
That's by the way side here.
This is some of the things that we're gonna be discussing live and
in-person at the Chemical Summit on September 30th and October 1st.
If you're listening to this episode, when it comes out.
Then there is still time to be in the room.
If you're listening to this later, well, we'll see you next year.
In any case, head on over to the chemical summit.com
for more details.
So let's talk about 2025 and where we are sitting currently.
Let's be honest, it has been.
Tumultuous.
That's my word.
That's I've decided that is the word of the year.
Whether it be market disruptions, trade tariffs, et cetera.
We're gonna be talking about that as we go along here.
I'm gonna be highlighting the market trends that are leading into Q4 2025.
This gives us context.
You guys are living it, but let's just re-anchor in the context
of where we are today and then.
I'm gonna be talking about the strategies and the execution and the discipline
that you need to as you head into Q4 and set yourself up for success in 2026.
So let's talk about this, the top five market trends heading into Q4 2025,
and you tell me if these are your top five or not, but these are my top five.
What are we seeing?
Number one, permanent asset shutdowns in.
Poor utilization across many parts of the industry, right?
No surprise there.
We're seeing announcements.
It seems like almost daily, but, and these are no longer just
temporary curtailments, right?
So at times, you know, this units are slow to restart or maybe we're
idling a unit or what have you.
Now we're taking, companies are taking strategic measures, and
permanently shutting down assets.
Right?
We're seeing this a lot in Europe.
We've seen some of this in the us.
Dao.
BASF, Lyell.
Bassel, sabic.
Those are some of the big names you've seen, but there's also
smaller companies along the way.
Part of this is fundamental structural differences in energy, right?
These guys are all citing high energy cost structures.
Policy impacts from sustainability, from energy policies and other things.
There are measures being taken place, right, but it's a little
bit late for some of it, right?
So, companies have made these decisions to make some changes.
Why does this matter?
Right?
So this is.
Pretty fundamental restructuring of the industry.
We've seen this happen before.
I've seen it happen in my career early on, um, at various points in times.
I think the last time we've really seen some major structural changes was the late
nineties, early two thousands, even oh 8, 0 9 when there was some bankruptcies.
Hello.
But line Deel, I'm talking about you.
Others, we didn't see the restructuring to this degree.
So this is a pretty dramatic change with knock on effects for supply,
security, trade flows and more.
So that's one.
And uh, what's gonna be interesting is, um, next week, is my interview with Dewey
Johnson from Chemical Market Analytics.
We talk about some of this, right?
So it's not just these structural changes, it's the fact that we're
expecting a pretty flat and slow recovery.
So you're gonna wanna tune in next week, 'cause Dewey and
I talk about that and more.
The second key theme heading into Q4 as we wrap up Q3 heading into
Q4, is trade and tariff volatility.
Right?
No doubt.
Do we have a tariff?
Do we not have a tariff?
How the heck are we calculating this tariff?
You guys are living it, right?
Um, I, I don't fortunately have to live it as much other than when it shows
up on my doorstep and my products, et cetera, but these trade disputes and
tariff shifts are really influencing.
Behaviors across the industry.
Right?
Um, and then if we add in ongoing geopolitical situations between
China and North America and the Middle East and everywhere, right?
It seems like we've got geopolitical situations and tensions in a lot
of places that's having effect on our, um, on the industry.
And why is this important?
Volatility is.
Tough to deal with.
And the bigger issue to deal with, and that I hear collectively
from people is uncertainty.
It is hard to manage around uncertainty.
You can do it right.
So one of some of the ways that we talk about doing this
is through scenario planning.
Assessing what those options might be, um, et cetera.
But this volatility and uncertainty is hard to deal with, but it also creates
opportunities if you are prepared to take advantage of that volatility.
If you've mapped out your scenarios and situations and how you wanna respond,
you're able to capture share, you're able to capture volume and margin.
Um, and that's a great thing.
By the way, cue the supply chain teams.
Right, so we're talking about that and more at the Chemical Summit.
I've been talking to some supply chain leaders who are like Victoria,
finally, supply chain is getting its due because the response to tariff and
trade, uh, volatility and uncertainty comes through in our supply chains.
So more on that later.
The third team coming through is capital constraints and
higher cost of financing, right?
It's just more expensive.
People have less free cash flow.
It's more expensive to borrow money.
This leads us to this whole situation of cash is king, right?
focus.
Companies are being more selective in their investments, where
they're putting in projects where they're just spending money.
You still have to spend money, guys.
Um, and I think we're seeing that absolutely.
People recognize that we still need to, they still need to
spend money to visit customers.
They need to make strategic project decisions, but there are
far more capital constraints.
And so we're seeing, slowing down, um, a more mindfulness and in fact,
again, Part of this is coming into just cuts with plant shutdowns
come talent restructuring, right?
So the big guys, whether it be Chevron, Phillips, lion del Bassel,
we're seeing a lot of announcements.
Um, in reality, I talk to people.
Regularly that are in transition, at inflection points, coaching them
through how do they handle those situations that maybe were expected,
but the timing is sometimes a surprise.
Well, these things happen.
So, um, again, back to this whole capital constraints, how it plays
out, there are regional differences.
We talk about that, but this is certainly something facing companies
across the chemical industry.
The fourth theme heading into Q4 is around decarbonization, right?
So this is, you could call it the decade of decarbonization.
I might.
The reality is across the, the chemical industry has been.
Improving itself, decarbonizing, improving its air and water
quality, all these things.
But we are really focused in on decarbonization until we're not.
And now what we're seeing is really.
Strategic back to the strategic discipline around large scale projects being paused.
Right.
So most recently we've seen Dow has delayed its net zero cracker in Canada.
They've made some other decisions and announcements around delaying some
of this investment that they've got.
And so we're seeing the big stuff get delayed.
The reality is incremental efficiency.
Scope three, collaborations continue.
So, it's all ever more important to be operationally.
Effective, um, and execute effectively.
And we're gonna be talking about that.
The other thing we're talking about is that there is still a
business case for sustainability.
So that's actually one of the panels at the Chemical Summit is about, the
business case for sustainability.
And we've got leaders from a CC ese.
And Lindy and others on that panel talking about what is the business case.
The other thing to be listening to as a podcast listener, we
have an upcoming episode at the end of October with Together for
Sustainability Initiative, TFS.
Which focuses on sustainable procurement.
So it's a great interview with Jennifer Juin of Lyell Bassell and
Danielle Warnock of Ion talking about the importance of sustainable
and responsible pro procurement.
Oh, that was a hard one.
Sustainable and responsible procurement and the business case for sustainability.
So you're gonna wanna tune into that episode as well.
That's coming up end of October.
And the fifth trend that we're gonna talk about here, and, and
you've seen this, is uneven demand.
Uneven demand growth.
Maybe there's some lack of growth, uh, some weakness in over
capacity, certainly in commodities.
We've talked about this before.
There's strength in certain specialties, but it's volatile.
It's.
Really product and market specific.
Um, and it's influenced of course, by capital policies.
It's influenced by energy cost.
It's influenced by the demand that's driven as a result of
what's going on in the world today.
So those are my five.
So as a leader.
What does this mean for you?
What should you be doing in Q4 2025 to set yourself up for the year end?
And to position for 2026.
Right?
So I talked about this a little bit earlier.
What I would say is now is the time to demonstrate execution maturity, right?
Execution and discipline are ever important.
And this is really the quarter.
This is the time when times are tough, where strategic discipline sets you apart.
And we're gonna see the winners and losers playing out over the next year.
Based on responses to what you're doing today in 2025 and
how it rolls into 26 and beyond.
So here's the themes and here's what you as a leader.
Can be doing.
And by the way, this is you as a leader.
If you're at the top of your company, this is you.
If you're in the middle of your company, just kind of working in the stew of
things, this is also the why of why you're doing some of the things you're
doing that sometimes seem disconnected.
And I know at times when I was junior in my career, there were
decisions made and actions taken that I was like, why are we doing this?
That when you get a bit.
Bigger picture, right?
Elevate up not just in terms of your role, but if you just elevate your
picture and what you're looking at, you see, um, some of these patterns,
some of these leadership behaviors and the deci, the decisions and
the discipline and the strategic execution that you're taking that ends
up making sense for the long term.
All right, here we go.
Um, number one, tighten down operations while protecting strategic growth.
What does this mean?
Really, we are doubling down on margin management, energy
efficiency, cost discipline in Q4.
I'm already hearing, uh, here as we sit in September of companies
starting to slow down and dial back on their inventories, maybe.
Containing and planning and strategizing a little bit more on orders, products
that they're bringing in, orders that they're putting out really around this
whole, discipline to have cash and cost discipline to finish the year strong, to
still fund strategic growth because again.
Strategic growth is critical.
Funding your money and putting your money in the right place is critical.
Where are we seeing this?
Right?
So what I would say is leaders are not just trimming costs for survival, it's
really about freeing up capital to fund transformational growth, right?
So we're gonna talk in a minute about portfolio discipline and how
some businesses are cutting assets.
Well, when somebody is selling, you gotta have cash to buy.
'cause if you don't have cash to buy.
You miss out on opportunities, right?
So that's part of what we're doing here.
As we think about and what leaders are doing.
What you could be doing is really around tightening cash management, margin
management, so that you've got the money in hand, the capital, the working
capital, your financial levers to do what you need to do in the future, right?
So we're seeing this, we're seeing this across a number of companies.
Why does it matter?
So right, of course, number one, heading into Q4, everybody's, if you're
a publicly traded company, it's about what your investors see on the books.
If you're a private company, it's still about that year end.
Financial reporting is critical, but it's also about having, again, the money
to reinvest in innovation and m and a.
Sustainability projects and frankly just to keep the lights turned on.
'cause sometimes it's a rough patch and we're in a little bit of a rough patch,
especially depending on where you are.
So, um, you know, the mantra that we often hear is Cassius King.
Cassius King, right.
The second action.
You can be taking as a leader and that you see leaders in companies
taking already is around portfolio discipline and selective investment.
Right?
So a lot of big words, but really.
Taking a look at non-core businesses for divestment, um, and lining
up investment cases for growth.
So a great case in point recently, DuPont sold an, or announced a
sale of its specialty, materials business, nomax and Kevlar to Alan.
The reality is it's still a good business.
It's just not a good fit for where DuPont is and where it wants to go.
So getting smart in terms of what.
Product lines you wanna be in, what assets make sense to have?
And so that, you know, in your case it might be pruning.
And I always talk about as a gardener, you sometimes have to prune to grow.
And we're a bit in that mode of pruning the assets, the business lines.
Don't make sense for you today and in the future.
Again, strategic discipline, and other people acquiring them because
it makes great sense for them.
They have a unique value that they can apply that helps them to grow.
So portfolio discipline and selective investment.
The third thing here is around stress testing supply chains for resilience.
Uh, you guys have heard me say this, it is the decade of supply chain.
I feel like everybody's like, oh, Victoria, are we not done
yet working on our supply chains?
And the answer to that is no.
Of course you're not.
When products move, when your businesses shift, when the
situations around you are changing.
You need to keep assessing and evaluating and refining your supply
chains, your supply chain strategy, your discipline of execution, right?
So couple examples recently, and I talked about this when I talked about Q2.
Uh, my reflections on Q2 earnings reports, you know, clearance, they've announced
that they've got something like 70%.
Of their business is local sourcing makes sense, especially for a specialty
chemical company, but it also provides resilience against transportation,
tariffs, other situations that are making it really hard to plan.
You know, and what is different today about this, right?
Again?
'cause you're like, we've been doing this.
I know.
And frankly, you're never gonna stop.
Um, but what's really different about right now is when we think
about resilience, it's like patching.
Vulnerabilities, you're fixing things up, but it's really about turning
resilience and reliability into customer value propositions and recognizing
the strength of your supply chains.
Both physically as well as the people that are in your supply chains and
your know-how and your ability to apply different strategies, different
tariffs, different relationships.
This is a competitive advantage, right?
It is really a difference maker for the businesses.
That are able to turn it on.
Um, hin, who is the CEO of NewCo Logistics, um, she's been a past guest
on the Chemical Show and she's gonna be a panelist at the Chemical Summit.
She and I just had a conversation recently and she's like, finally,
Victoria Supply Chain is becoming a valuable partner and not just a utility.
We're recognizing it.
Yes we are.
And smart leaders do.
Right?
So that's my third item, number four.
Advancing decarbonization commitments.
Okay, Q4 is really the time to sharpen your transition roadmaps, right?
So the goals that have been set out there have not gone away.
Maybe they've been deferred, maybe they're being approached differently.
I know that some people feel like.
Gee, we're sustainability's no longer important.
And I sometimes ask that question like, is sustainability important?
Still?
The answer is yes.
Who is it important to?
It's important to your customers, it's important to your shareholders.
It is important to your future employees.
Um, it's important to the, you know, just your license to operate
on a long term basis, right?
So certainly we've seen recently, right, Dow paused, its net Zero Cracker Project
in Canada and some other things, and yet has continued to sign incremental,
plans for electrifying assets, signing renewable energy contracts, reporting
on its scope three supplier data.
That's just one example.
So it's really about being very mindful and strategic and focused.
More tactically focused on things that are more controllable and deliverable,
So that's important to think about.
Can you actually deliver on your promises that's important?
Versus these bigger promises, big booming promises that we saw
everybody make a couple years ago.
Eh, nobody's making those anymore.
Still continuing to advance decarbonization and SU and
sustainability focusing in on bio-based products, greener products?
Yes, investors, customers, stakeholders expect clarity and
they expect credible progress.
And so companies and leaders that are articulating that, articulating those
really concrete next steps are winning trust and they're winning capital.
Five, talent and culture readiness, right?
So I didn't really touch on talent in the beginning part of this in terms
of themes other than, Hey guys, you and I are both seeing a lot of layoffs
across the industry, not necessarily widespread, or maybe they're widespread.
Let me know, um, what you're seeing.
But we're certainly seeing enough of that.
I'm hearing it.
People are reaching out.
The announcements are in the paper, individuals are talking.
But talent is important.
It's not just about the fact that we are streamlining talent.
It's that talent.
Is, and people, people and culture are defining success, right?
if I think about all the trends and the themes that are influencing us, right?
So it's stuff like digitization and AI and supply chain.
We need leaders that are ready and capable and not just leaders in terms of senior
leaders, it's leaders in their roles.
It's the individuals that can take and adapt and grow.
With new ways of doing business, which is absolutely where we are, right?
We are in a transformation across the industry, culturally, strategically,
structurally, and people are critical to making that transformation happen.
So, you know, focusing in on making sure that you've got the
right succession planning, that you're skill building across your.
Employee base, um, at all levels.
Technical, operational, business, strategic, customer facing, skill building
and digital and AI and all the other important things, um, and really aligning
your culture to transformation growth.
Again, it's all about.
Tactics and execution and really alignment.
So entering 2026 with engaged teams that are aligned, that are ready to
lead through disruption, that are ready to take on the new challenges
is a real competitive advantage.
And my sixth point here, um, for leaders, things that you can and should be doing
here in the fourth quarter to set you up for success, to close out strong and to
set you up for success going into 2026 is around customer centric engagement.
Right?
At the end of the day, you need to be really connecting with your
key customers here at year end.
Frankly, not just the call for cash, which that sometimes happens, right?
Um, when I was at Shell, we used to talk about having Gold Rush in, Q4 and
especially December, trying to close out all those open invoices and get paid
and, and be able to have that in there.
It's not just about that, it's about benchmarking, understanding
what their priorities are.
How do you finish strong together?
Right, so while you've got goals, your customers have goals as well.
So how do you finish strong together in the Q4 and then benchmarking on how their
priorities are shifting, what's important to them, what's actually driving value?
Right.
So customers don't necessarily want these incremental sales conversations.
Sometimes they do, right?
Absolutely.
And frankly, we all need them.
But it's also about having strategic partnership, um, and solving,
creating solutions, creating value, identifying what really matters.
So I recently spoke to James Hogan of Simon Kutcher.
In fact, that was last week's episode.
So by the way, if you haven't listened to that one.
Go back and listen.
Um, if you have listened to it, listen again.
Um, it was a really good one, but we talked about the importance of pricing.
And frankly, price is the biggest, fastest lever you have
in your business financially.
But it's not price alone.
It's the value that you bring to your customers.
It is the customer centricity that you've got.
And early alignment.
With your customers now in 2025 to talk about how are we doing
business together in 2026?
What's gonna make us great partners?
How do I bring you value?
How do you bring me value?
Because I do think that equation goes both ways.
How do we bring value to each other as partners, as collaborators, as.
You know, value chain participants, right?
It's really critical, right?
And this customer centricity, we talk about it.
We're talking about it again, because this becomes a game changer for you
and your business and the companies and leaders that are figuring out what
really matters, what brings value.
How do you get that reflection of value back from your customers are winning.
Today into Q4 and as we head into 2026.
so that is a wrap for today.
And what I would leave you with is we are entering the fourth quarter, and
frankly, the fourth quarter is the best and most exciting quarter, right?
So any sports enthusiast, whether you watch football, whether you
watch basketball, pick another sport, fourth quarter is a game changer.
Anything can happen.
You may be down, you may be winning.
It is go time though.
Fourth quarter is the best quarter.
It's not too late.
You can really win still here in 2025 and set yourself up for success in 2026.
I had love to hear what you think.
I wanna find out what are you doing to set yourself up for success in
2026 and to close out strong in 2025.
So send me a message on LinkedIn, leave me a dm.
Love to hear from you.
And as always, thanks for joining us today.
Keep listening, keep following, keep sharing, and I'll talk
to you again very soon.
Thanks for joining us today on The Chemical Show.
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You can find me at Victoria King Meyer on LinkedIn, and you can also
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