How will globalization change?

Show Notes

Navigating the deglobalized “new normal” post COVID-19.

Moderator:
Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute

Panellists:
James Crabtree, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House; Associate Professor in Practice, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
Alicia García-Herrero, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

This podcast episode was recorded on 13 October 2020

The AIG Global Trade Series 2020 examines the ongoing transformation of the world’s multilateral trading system.

Since the financial crisis of 2008 there have been many confident predictions that we are seeing the “End of Globalization”.  A process of growing economic interconnectedness which had raised millions from poverty worldwide seemed to many to be stalling, even going into reverse, as protectionism grew in many countries and the US and China began to de-couple their economies.  The pandemic has only accelerated this shift by triggering a backlash against long, vulnerable supply chains.  It has also exposed the weakness of multilateral institutions and so raised the spectre of a deglobalized world of trading blocs and barriers.

In this podcast, moderator Rem Korteweg of the Clingendael Institute is joined by James Crabtree, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House; Associate Professor in Practice, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore; and Alicia García-Herrero, Senior Fellow, Bruegel. Listen as they discuss the political forces driving deglobalization, including technological innovation as well as geopolitics, and what a less connected “new normal” might look like.

Was the pre-pandemic model of hyper-globalization effective and sustainable? Who will be the economic winners and losers in a deglobalized world? To what extent can multilateral organizations be renewed and countries spared the necessity to choose sides in a zero-sum G-2 decoupling?

__________

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of American International Group, Inc. or its subsidiaries or affiliates (“AIG”). Any content provided by our speakers are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything. AIG makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, correctness, or validity of any information provided during this podcast series and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses injuries, or damages arising from its use.

What is AIG Global Trade Series?

Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade?

Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies.

From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?