Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)
Date: Thursday, 23 October 2025
Episode Summary
Today’s briefing covers a firmer USD on US–China tensions, softer EUR and GBP, and USD/JPY holding above 152. Oil is supported by fresh Russia-focused sanctions and shifting India–Russia flows, while gold and copper are calmer after prior volatility. Trade policy is front and center with potential US controls on China-linked exports that include US software, G7 coordination signals, and parallel talks spanning the US–China track, Taipei–Washington, and Malaysia meetings. Geopolitically, the docket includes expanded Russia sanctions, a canceled Trump–Putin meeting, Israeli legislative moves drawing US warnings, and North Korea’s claimed hypersonic test.
Key Topics Covered
- FX:
- USD firmer as risk sentiment softens; EUR under 1.16, GBP still heavy post-UK CPI.
- USD/JPY >152 with Japan signaling fiscal reforms; PBoC stronger-than-expected CNY fix (7.0918).
- Commodities:
- Oil: Bid on sanctions targeting Rosneft/Lukoil; reports of Russian flows to India set to fall; refiners tightening bills-of-lading checks.
- Metals: Gold softer in calmer trade; copper lacklustre amid subdued demand tone.
- Trade & Tariffs / Tech Controls:
- US considering export limits on goods to China if made with/contain US software; emphasis on G7 coordination.
- Trump flags long meeting with Xi in South Korea; references potential deals on soybeans and broader trade; reiterates tariff stance.
- Taiwan–US trade agreement said to be close; Treasury meetings with Chinese officials in Malaysia.
- Geopolitics:
- Russia–Ukraine: Broader US sanctions; no Trump–Putin meeting “for now,” but diplomacy remains open.
- Middle East: US warns Israeli Knesset moves on West Bank annexation could imperil Gaza peace track.
- Korean Peninsula: DPRK claims hypersonic missile test; launch outside Japan’s EEZ.