Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)
Date: Wednesday, 22 October 2025
Episode Summary
Today’s briefing spotlights a flat USD with sterling under pressure after softer UK CPI, a steady EUR, and USD/JPY capped below 152. In commodities, crude is firmer on renewed supply-risk headlines out of Ukraine and a surprise US crude draw, while gold remains volatile around the USD 4,000/oz area. The policy lane is busy: the US reiterates steep China tariffs from Nov 1, the US–India deal inches closer, Brussels intensifies export-control talks with Beijing, and Seoul presses China on shipbuilding and rare-earths. Geopolitically, updates span the Russia–Ukraine conflict, US diplomacy in Israel, a North Korean missile launch, and South China Sea frictions.
Key Topics Covered
- FX: USD broadly flat; GBP weaker post-UK CPI; EUR steady in tight ranges; USD/JPY contained <152; PBoC sets a stronger-than-expected yuan fix (7.0954).
- Commodities:
- Oil: Bid on reports of Russian strikes damaging Ukrainian energy assets (Poltava) and a surprise ~3 mb crude draw in US private data; US to purchase 1 mb for the SPR (deliveries late-2025/early-2026).
- Metals: Gold volatile around ~USD 4,000/oz after Tuesday’s outsized selloff; copper steadies after prior weakness.
- Trade & Tariffs:
- US–China: Tariffs flagged to rise to ~155% on Nov 1; Trump–Xi meeting still uncertain.
- US–India: Deal reportedly near to cut tariffs on Indian exports from ~50% to ~15–16%.
- EU–China: Brussels to intensify export-control and rare-earth discussions; Germany/France elevate at EU leaders’ summit.
- South Korea–China: Seoul protests shipbuilding curbs and rare-earth limits; notes differences with US over tariffs.
- Regional FX backstops: Reported exploration of a China–Japan–South Korea three-way currency swap.
- US admin actions: CBP processing shift post-de-minimis; China opens anti-dumping probe on some US analog IC chips.
- Geopolitics:
- Russia–Ukraine: Moscow cites assurances to restore power at Zaporizhia; Kyiv reports strikes in Russia’s Bryansk; no confirmed Trump–Putin meeting yet.
- Middle East: US Secretary of State Rubio expected to visit Israel this week.
- Korean Peninsula: North Korea launches a ballistic missile; no Japan EEZ damage.
- South China Sea: China warns it will “block and drive away” Australian aircraft near the Paracels.
- Americas: US urging Argentina to limit Chinese influence over strategic projects.